SAG Winner Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

The competition: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, House of Gucci, King Richard

For your information: “House of Gucci” has two performers nominated, while “Belfast,” “CODA,” and “King Richard” each have one. Every nominee but “House of Gucci” is nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. Despite three individual nominations, “The Power of the Dog” didn’t get included here. “Black Panther” and “Parasite” both won this prize without any individual nominations, which could bode well for “Don’t Look Up.” The winner of this award has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar twelve times since its inception in 1995.

Who should win? I would be thrilled to see either “CODA” or “Belfast” prevail.

Who will win? It’s hard to know what the frontrunner is here. My gut is that Belfast wins, though it’s really up in the air.

SAG Nominees: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 1/5
Who’s missing? The Power of the Dog, West Side Story, Mass, The Harder They Fall, Being the Ricardos

Yikes. I did worst in this category, naming only one nominee – CODA – which did make the cut, and I’m so happy it did. The rest of the list is a bit more perplexing. I correctly predicted that “The Power of the Dog” would miss out, despite its three individual nominations, while Belfast, which only managed one, did get in. It’s just as puzzling that King Richard scored here since supporting actress Aunjanue Ellis was left off, while Don’t Look Up, which didn’t get any individual bids, also got in, which doesn’t thrill me. The big surprise is House of Gucci, which has two performers nominated and which definitely showcases a lot of acting, however excessive it may be. This is bad news for “Mass” and not a great development for “West Side Story.” It would also have been nice to see a truly ensemble effort like “The Harder They Fall” here.

Who will win? I’m not so sure. I’d love for it to be “CODA” but I’d also be happy with Belfast, which might be the frontrunner now.

SAG Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Last year’s nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, One Night in Miami, The Trial of the Chicago 7

This category is the most competitive of all the races, and given its historical precedent for surprises, could include anything. West Side Story seems like the only true safe bet, since something like The Power of the Dog or Belfast, which should be sure things, might be snubbed like other presumed locks in the past. The Harder They Fall, which has been an inconsistent player this awards season, may be rewarded here. Don’t Look Up, King Richard, or Nightmare Alley could benefit from waves of support, while Licorice Pizza has been collecting a number of citations despite not really being an ensemble piece. Being the Ricardos is another possibility, as are CODA and Mass. I’m going to be bold and predict that both the juggernauts in this race get omitted.

Current predictions:
Being the Ricardos
CODA
The Harder They Fall
Mass
West Side Story

AFT Awards: Best Ensemble Cast

This is the nineteenth category of the 14th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. I’m drawing only from films that were either released or playing at a film festival in the 2020 calendar year. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order):
Ellie and Abbie (and Ellie’s Dead Aunt), Herself, Pink Skies Ahead

Runners-up:
The King of Staten Island
Summertime
Wendy
Nine Days
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

The winner:
The Trial of the Chicago 7 assembled a stunning array of talent to bring to life a stirring story of activism made even more electric by all of its contained performances.

Other nominees:
The Best Years
Mank
One Night in Miami
Blast Beat

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

The competition: Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, One Night in Miami, The Trial of the Chicago 7

For your information: The first three alphabetical films have three performers nominated, while the last two have just one each. Chadwick Boseman appears in two of these nominees. Only two of these nominees – “Minari” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” – are up for the Oscar for Best Picture, making this the year of least crossover since 2015 (2007 is the most distinct with only “No Country for Old Men,” which won both prizes, cited by both groups). Neither Golden Globe Best Picture winner, “Nomadland” (also the Critics Choice victor) or “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm,” is represented here. The winner of this award has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar eleven twelve since its inception in 1995.

Who should win? This is a very strong category. It’s hard to argue with a dedicated and diverse group in “Da 5 Bloods,” the range of talent in “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” the fantastic four in “One Night in Miami,” so many superb actors in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” and the earnestness of everyone in “Minari.” I’d choose “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” but wouldn’t mind any of these winning.

Who will win? If it’s “Minari,” that would be very exciting and a great Korean-language follow-up to “Parasite” winning last year. The likelier and just as deserving option is The Trial of the Chicago 7.

SAG Nominees: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Father

Well, this list is a bit refreshing. Keeping just one of the ten Golden Globe nominees for best picture - The Trial of the Chicago 7 - we get a firm endorsement of a few other films. Da 5 Bloods, completely snubbed at the Globes, rebounds with this nod and a mention for supporting actor Chadwick Boseman, though star Delroy Lindo is mysteriously left off again. Minari, which only got in for foreign film at the Globes, got two individual nominations, while Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom added to its two recognized stars with this very deserved bid. One Night in Miami, which likely just missed the top Globe category given its mention for director, is here too, which is great. In terms of what didn’t make the cut, it’s most worrisome for “Mank,” which recovered well from a spotty precursor record yesterday and probably should have been here without much trouble. “Nomadland,” “Promising Young Woman,” or “The Father” showing up would have been an excessive show of support for any of those films since none are really ensemble pieces. Even if this wouldn’t be exactly my list, these are all clear instances of great group work.

Who will win? I’ll pick The Trial of the Chicago 7 for now.

SAG Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Last year’s nominees: Bombshell, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite

I’m making predictions for SAG, which will announce its picks on Thursday, February 4th, just after the Golden Globe nominations being unveiled on Wednesday, though I may revise them then if there are some big surprises. That said, there’s no corresponding category there. I improved from one out of five two years ago to two out of five this time around, so here’s hoping for a better overall score. I think that The Trial of the Chicago 7 and One Night in Miami are pretty far ahead of everything else. After that, Mank seems probable, as does Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, while Minari and Da 5 Bloods are the more serious choices over other possibilities like The Prom or The Personal History of David Copperfield. While Nomadland and Promising Young Woman have earned considerable praise this season, I’m not sure that they’re contenders in this category since they’re not really ensemble pieces. Both are very possible though!

Current predictions:
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Minari
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7

AFT Awards: Best Ensemble Cast

This is the twenty-fifth category of the 13th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order):
Avengers: Endgame, Downton Abbey, Little Women, The Irishman, Troop Zero

Runners-up:
Come As You Are
Monos
Late Night
Knives Out
Marriage Story

The winner:
Parasite assembled a marvelous group of performers who made this incredibly compelling experience all the more layered and powerful.

Other nominees:
Yes, God, Yes
Booksmart
Good Boys
Fighting with My Family

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

The competition: Bombshell, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite

For your information: Four films with no individual actors nominated have won – “The Full Monty” in 1997, “The Return of the King” in 2003, “Hidden Figures” in 2016, and “Black Panther” last year. That bodes well for “Parasite,” which is also only the second-ever foreign language nominee in this race. “Bombshell” has three individual performers nominated, though one of them also stars in “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” which has two. “The Irishman” has two, while “Jojo Rabbit” has just one. From this list, only “Bombshell” is not nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture. The winner of this award has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar eleven times since its inception in 1995.

Who should win? I can appreciate the talent in “Bombshell,” even though most of the people who made the movie aren’t recognized. I’m not sold on “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” and I don’t think it should be here. “The Irishman” is a formidable feat of acting talent, while “Jojo Rabbit” has a silly but fun group. My clear choice is the incomparable “Parasite.”
Who will win? I would jump for joy if “Parasite” won, but I’ll go ahead and predict Once Upon a Time in Hollywood to take it instead.

SAG Nominees: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 2/5, picking only “The Irishman” and “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Who’s missing? Marriage Story, Little Women, Dolemite Is My Name, Knives Out

Well, this is a surprise. I cheered so loudly when Parasite was announced, making it only the second foreign-language film ever nominated in this race. To see an entirely Korean cast nominated is truly fantastic, and I couldn’t be happier about it. What’s not quite as exciting is a shut-out for “Little Women,” which is not good news for a film that includes a great cast. The same might be true for Golden Globes nomination leader “Marriage Story,” which still managed three individual nominations even if it couldn’t be here. Its omission would be a lot more troubling if films like “The Shape of Water” and “Green Book,” both of which went on to win Best Picture, hadn’t been snubbed here as well. The big get is for Bombshell, which scored individual accolades for all three of its female stars. Jojo Rabbit, also nominated for Scarlett Johansson's individual performance, is a fun choice since there really were some great and entertaining players involved. The two expected bigwigs, The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, both of which scored two individual acting bids, round out a category that doesn’t upset me much even if I’d love to see other films also represented here. I know that Nathaniel from The Film Experience always does a run-through of which ensemble players weren’t actually nominated from each of these casts, and, in addition to many actors with small roles in “Bombshell” and “The Irishman” who aren’t mentioned, the most egregious omission seems to be Archie Yates from “Jojo Rabbit.” All in all, this list is better than it’s been in years, in my opinion.

Who will win? I think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood takes it, though I’d be so happy if it was “Parasite.”

SAG Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Last year’s nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, A Star is Born

I’m making predictions for SAG, which will announce its picks Wednesday, ahead of the Golden Globe nominations being unveiled on Monday, though I may revise them again on Tuesday if there are some big surprises. That said, there’s no corresponding category there. Also, I only got one out of five in this race last year, so I’m hoping to do much better this time around. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood seems like the only safe lock, with The Irishman and Marriage Story. Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Hustlers, Bombshell, and Knives Out all feel like they could have their large casts rewarded, but I don’t feel too confident about any of them. I think Jojo Rabbit actually has a solid chance to score here, and Little Women could round out the list.

Current predictions:
Dolemite Is My Name
The Irishman
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

AFT Awards: Best Ensemble Cast

This is the twenty-second category of the 12th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order):
Blindspotting, Boundaries, Egg, Juliet, Naked, Night Comes On, Slut in a Good Way

Runners-up:
Never Goin' Back
First Match
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mid90s
American Animals

The winner:
The Favourite brought together so many wild characters whose interactions were incredibly watchable and delightfully absurd.

Other nominees:
Widows
Black Panther
The Death of Stalin
In a Relationship

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

The competition: BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, A Star is Born

For your information: This year, there are two films nominated without a corresponding cast member, marking the fifth time that has happened in the history of this category. Three films with no individual actors nominated have won – “The Full Monty” in 1997, “The Return of the King” in 2003, and “Hidden Figures” in 2016. “Bohemian Rhapsody,” which won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Drama, has star Rami Malek nominated. “BlacKkKlansman” contends individually for John David Washington and Adam Driver. “A Star is Born” has Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga, and Sam Elliott nominated. From this list, only “Crazy Rich Asians” is not nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture. The winner of this award has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar eleven times since its inception in 1995.

Who should win? My list would be entirely different. “Crazy Rich Asians” is a fun choice but I don’t think it needs to be here over other casts. “BlacKkKlansman” had some good players, but they’re not the best. The stars of “A Star is Born” were terrific, but I wouldn’t cite is as an ensemble. “Bohemian Rhapsody” managed to have all of its players resemble real-life figures and deserves commendation for that. My clear choice, however, is “Black Panther,” a superhero movie that used all of its actors to excellent effect.

Who will win? It’s hard to know. A victory for “Bohemian Rhapsody” would surely make the heads of most critics and prognosticators explode. “BlacKkKlansman” doesn’t seem like it’s been visible enough to take this, and “Crazy Rich Asians” would be a real surprise. The safe choice is probably “A Star is Born,” but I’m going to pick the very popular Black Panther to triumph instead.

SAG Nominees: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 1/5, picking only “Crazy Rich Asians”
Who’s missing? The Favourite, Vice, Widows, If Beale Street Could Talk

I didn’t realize quite how badly I had done here. That said, there are some definite surprises. I guess I’ve been spoiled by the past few years where we got new contenders who hadn’t been honored in the top races at the Golden Globes, like “The Big Sick,” “Mudbound,” “Captain Fantastic,” “Hidden Figures,” “Beasts of No Nation,” “Straight Outta Compton,” and “Trumbo.” This year, all five were recognized there, though they’re not the ones you might think. “The Favourite” was highly expected to make the cut, and its omission is deeply troubling, and disappointing because it’s not just the three terrific women, and the same argument could be made for A Star is Born, which did manage to make the cut. The snub for “Vice” is problematic for that film though not damning, whereas this should be the end of the line, regrettably, for “Widows.” The absence of “If Beale Street Could Talk” is very disconcerting, signaling that support for the great film might not be as strong as it should be, though both “The Shape of Water” and “Call Me By Your Name” missed out here last year. Crazy Rich Asians getting in isn’t a big deal since it makes sense as a fun choice, and that doesn’t necessarily bolster its chances. Interestingly, it’s one of two films nominated without an individual cast representative, along with Black Panther, another good choice with lots of great players. I’m fine with the inclusion of BlacKkKlansman even if it wasn’t my favorite of the year. Rounding out the list is a less expected choice, Bohemian Rhapsody, that I’m behind since I liked it a lot more than most critics. It’s now a much stronger contender for the Best Picture Oscar given its placement here and at the Globes. The question is, like last year, will not all these films make the cut with the Oscars? On a less optimistic note, it’s worth reading Nathaniel’s deep dive into which ensemble players weren’t actually nominated over at The Film Experience.

Who will win? These are some competitive nominees – my guess is that Black Panther wins over the likelier frontrunner, “A Star is Born.”

SAG Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Last year’s nominees: The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, Mudbound, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

There are many contenders in this category, and the question is whether films that haven’t done well elsewhere can show up here. Crazy Rich Asians is a good possibility since it’s a fun ensemble piece, and Widows might also see an uptick in buzz with a mention here. Of the Best Picture frontrunners, If Beale Street Could Talk, The Favourite, and Vice seem likeliest, though Green Book, BlacKkKlansman or Black Panther could also show up. I’m not feeling A Star is Born being recognized here, but maybe that’s foolish on my part. Might Mary Poppins Returns make the cut too?

Current predictions:
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Vice
Widows

AFT Awards: Best Ensemble Cast

This is the twenty-first category of the 11th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order):
Baby Driver, Band Aid, Blame, Brigsby Bear, Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Deidra and Laney Rob a Train, Downsizing, Free and Easy, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, It Happened in L.A., Marjorie Prime, Menashe, Mudbound, Novitiate, Permission, Princess Cyd, Stronger, Table 19, The Disaster Artist, The Fate of the Furious, The Last Movie Star, The Last Word, The Meyerowitz Stories, The Vanishing of Sidney Hall, The Wedding Plan, Their Finest, Wilson, Wonder, Wonderstruck

Runners-up:
In Between
Battle of the Sexes
Ingrid Goes West
The Florida Project
The Women's Balcony

The winner:
The Big Sick captured two people falling in love and a family in crisis in a beautiful and highly entertaining way, with each cast member supporting the rest to the utmost comedic and dramatic effect.

Other nominees:
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Sweet Virginia
Thoroughbreds

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

The competition: The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, Mudbound, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

For your information: In alphabetical order, these films have one, one, two, one, and three individual acting nominees. “Lady Bird” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” won the top Golden Globe prizes, where “The Big Sick” and “Mudbound” weren’t nominated. “Lady Bird” has the largest ensemble with twelve actors, and all but “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” have seven actors.

Who should win? I’m so happy “The Big Sick” is here, and that would probably be my choice, though “Lady Bird” is a great pick too.

Who will win? That’s a tough call. I feel like Lady Bird is the safe choice, but it could be any of them except for “The Big Sick.”

SAG Nominees: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 3/5, picking “The Post” and “The Shape of Water” over “Get Out” and “Lady Bird”
Who’s missing? The Post, The Shape of Water, Call Me By Your Name, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya

Let me start by citing my excitement that, after being shut out by Globe voters earlier this week, The Big Sick is here for a wonderful ensemble that deserves so much praise. Though I didn’t predict it, I’m very happy for Lady Bird, whose ensemble is superb. I’m not on board the Get Out train though I’d argue that the acting is decent. This category, long seen as a necessary Oscar stop on the way to Best Picture, is most impactful for the snubs of three high-profile films that might have been seen as the frontrunners. I think they’ll all end up with Best Picture bids for sure, but this is a dent in the road to Oscar that I was predicting for “Call Me By Your Name.” Mudbound was always going to do well here and might enter the Best Picture race after little Globes love, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, once not a sure thing, has cemented itself as a lock for Oscar love and maybe even for a top win.

Who will win? Though “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” has the most individual acting nominees - three - I think this is going to Mudbound.

AFT Awards: Best Ensemble Cast

This is the twentieth category of the 10th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order):
An Eye for Beauty, AWOL, Beyond the Mountains and Hills, Captain Fantastic, Dean, Denial, Dough, Elvis and Nixon, Equals, Eye in the Sky, Hidden Figures, High-Rise, I, Daniel Blake, In a Valley of Violence, Is That a Gun in Your Pocket?, Julieta, Lion, Little Boxes, Maggie's Plan, Me, Myself, and Her, One Week and a Day, Sand Storm, Sing Street, The Hollars , The Light Between Oceans, Things to Come, Wedding Doll , Wolves

Runners-up:
Elle
Fences
American Honey
Adult Life Skills
Hunt for the Wilderpeople

The winner:
Manchester by the Sea utilized all of its talent for maximum impact, drawing upon their abilities to handle devastating and humorous moments and intertwine them seamlessly.

Other nominees:
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
The Lobster
Moonlight

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

The competition: Captain Fantastic, Fences, Hidden Figures, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight

For your information: “Manchester by the Sea” and “Moonlight” both have three actors nominated, “Fences” has two, and “Captain Fantastic” and “Hidden Figures” each have one. Since the SAG Awards were first handed out in 1994, there has only been one eventual Oscar winner for Best Picture – “Braveheart” – that wasn’t nominated here, a statistic being used against “La La Land,” which only really has two main cast members. Only one winner of this award – “The Birdcage” – went on not to be nominated for Best Picture, and eleven of the winners took home the Best Picture award.

Who should win: I was blown away by the cast of “Manchester by the Sea” and I think it deserves it. “Captain Fantastic” is a fun inclusion but doesn’t get my vote. “Fences” is also a good choice, as is “Moonlight.”

Who will win: Honestly, it could be “Hidden Figures,” but I think Moonlight might take this as a way of honoring the portrayers of its protagonist that aren’t individually recognized.