Oscar Nominations Announced

Oscar nominations have been announced. Check out my brief reactions and the full list of nominees over at FilmFactual!

Oscar Nominees: Best Picture

My predictions: 8/10
My ballot: Here it is!
The nominees: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Dune, King Rihcard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story

This category didn’t offer too many surprises, with my unstable #9 and #10 picks, “tick, tick…BOOM!” and “The Tragedy of Macbeth,” which earned two and three nominations apiece, being omitted in favor of my #12 and #13 guesses, Drive My Car and Nightmare Alley, which both got four. The latter’s inclusion was the most unlikely given that it didn’t really clean up at precursors and it didn’t get a corresponding bid today for directing, writing, or editing. But it’s a very good film, so I’m happy to see it here. Of the rest, CODA and Licorice Pizza, two of my favorites, scored just three nominations each, followed by Don’t Look Up with an acceptable four and King Richard with a decent six. Belfast and West Side Story did fine, collecting seven each, which could have better for both. Dune managed ten nominations even with its director snubbed, and The Power of the Dog was expectedly the nominations leader, and remains the Best Picture frontrunner at this point. I’m happy to see four of my top ten films on this list, which isn’t always the case.

My current bet to win: It’s hard to imagine anything beating The Power of the Dog right now.

Oscar Nominees: Best Director

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

It’s hard to even process the omission of Denis Villeneuve for “Dune.” Someone was going to get left out to make room for Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), who had a great day with his film also nominated for Best Picture. Villeneuve’s film was still the second-most nominated, and this stings even more considering the lead actress of one of his previous films, Amy Adams, was snubbed for “Arrival” when Villeneuve did manage to get nominated. It’s hard to argue with the rest of the list, and I’m glad that Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) and Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) didn’t miss out, though the latter may have come close given how little love his film got overall. And then there are the two filmmakers who were nominated against each other way back in 1993: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) and Steven Spielberg (West Side Story). The former definitely has the edge, especially considering her film’s haul today, and it’s also worth noting that Campion is now the first female director nominated more than once for an Oscar.

My current bet to win: This is going to Campion.

Oscar Nominees: Best Documentary

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Ascension, Attica, Flee, Summer of Soul, Writing with Fire

And here we have it, our annual horrific snub in this category. “The Rescue” was a fantastic nonfiction film that really should have been here, but somehow, inexplicably, it’s not. I’m glad at least that Attica made the cut, and I’m particularly thrilled to see Writing with Fire, one of my favorites from the shortlist. Ascension is a mildly expected pick, as is Flee, which also got nominated in the animated and international feature races, and Summer of Soul. These wouldn’t be my top picks, but it’s definitely a decent list.

My current bet to win: With “The Rescue” out, I think Summer of Soul can win this without any trouble.

Oscar Nominees: Best Documentary Short

My predictions: 1/5
The nominees: Audible, Lead Me Home, The Queen of Basketball, Three Songs for Benazir, When We Were Bullies

Apparently watching all fifteen films on the shortlist doesn’t always help. I only predicted one of the nominees, The Queen of Basketball. I severely underestimated three Netflix entries, Three Songs for Benazir, Lead Me Home, and Audible, as well as When We Were Bullies, a retrospective documentary I probably should have seen coming. I’m hoping to have more coverage ahead of the Oscars about each of these. For now, click on the titles of the first four to watch the films!

My current bet to win: I’m betting on When We Were Bullies with “The Queen of Basketball” in second place.

Oscar Nominees: Best Live Action Short

My predictions: 2/5
The nominees: Ala Kachuu – Take and Run, The Dress, The Long Goodbye, On My Mind, Please Hold

I may not have done a great job predicting the nominees, but I did get to see all fifteen of the shortlisted films and interview all the filmmakers, so I’m excited to see these films honored now. I’m particularly happy to see Ala Kachuu – Take and Run since it was ranked dead last on GoldDerby, and it’s a great choice. I didn’t predict The Dress, On My Mind, and Please Hold, but they all make sense as nominees. The Long Goodbye was the other one I guessed correctly, which isn’t a surprise given its Oscar-nominated star. Click on the film titles to watch my conversations with the filmmakers!

My current bet to win: I’ll go with On My Mind for now with “The Long Goodbye” as runner-up.

Oscar Nominees: Best Animated Feature

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Encanto, Flee, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon

I’ve been saying all along that the animated slate from 2021 was terrific, and I would be happy with anything that got nominated. Still, it’s sad to see “Belle” left off as well as three other films that were never going to make the cut, “Poupelle of Chimney Town,” “My Sunny Maad,” and “Vivo.” Both Luca and Raya and the Last Dragon made it in, joining two of my favorites, Encanto and The Mitchells vs. the Machines. And Flee pulled off the historic feat of earning nominations here and in the international and documentary feature races.

My current bet to win: Unless “Flee” can upset, this is going to Encanto.

Oscar Nominees: Best Animated Short

My predictions: 1/5
The nominees: Affairs of the Art, Bestia, Boxballet, Robin Robin, The Windshield Wiper

I did very poorly here, picking just one of the nominees: The Windshield Wiper. I will note that both Affairs of the Art and Bestia featured very creative animation, while Boxballet and Robin Robin were clever in their approaches to storytelling. I’m hoping to have more coverage ahead of the Oscars about each of these. For now, click on the titles that are links to watch those films!

My current bet to win: It’s a tough call. Maybe Bestia?

Oscar Nominees: Best International Feature

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Drive My Car (Japan), Flee (Denmark), The Hand of God (Italy), Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan), The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

I had a feeling that Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan) would make the cut, and I’m very glad it did. I knew it would have to bump something, and I wish it had been Flee (Denmark) since that film got honored in two other categories, animated and documentary, meaning that “A Hero,” from Iran, and another film I have a feeling may have come close to getting nominated, “Plaza Catedral,” from Panama. The Hand of God (Italy) did make the cut, joined by The Worst Person in the World, which also scored a screenplay nomination. Drive My Car was today’s big winner, earning bids for its screenplay, director, and Best Picture, marking the first time a foreign film without consistent precursor support achieved that feat since “Amour” in 2012.

My current bet to win: There’s no way that Drive My Car doesn’t win this.

Oscar Nominees: Best Visual Effects

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Dune, Free Guy, No Time to Die, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Way: No Way Home

This category has two films I haven’t seen, though I only predicted one of them: Spider-Way: No Way Home, which didn’t score in Best Picture as some had suggested it could and which I will be seeing as soon as it comes to some streaming format. Free Guy will be my next annual Redbox rental. I’m happy to see Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings here since I enjoyed it, and this is officially the third time that a James Bond film has made the cut in this category with one of the three bids this year for No Time to Die. Rounding out the category is the film that I still think is the frontrunner: Dune.

My current bet to win: It’s probably going to be Dune.

Oscar Nominees: Best Makeup and Hairstyling

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Coming 2 America, Cruella, Dune, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci

Here’s where I have one of the three total Oscar-nominated films that I haven’t seen: Coming 2 America. I’ll have to watch that soon to offer thoughts. This is the only mention for one other film, House of Gucci, which was expected to do much better overall. Cruella and The Eyes of Tammy Faye, both terrific choices, did manage to get one other nomination each, while Dune is the only film with wide representation, counting this among its ten total bids.

My current bet to win: I think this can still go to House of Gucci.

Oscar Nominees: Best Sound

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Belfast, Dune, No Time to Die, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story

I somehow thought I had done much worse on my guesses for this category, but it turns out I was just distracted by the omission of “tick, tick…BOOM!” which I had hoped would make the cut. It’s a very solid list with some great sound, with lots of action and explosions in Dune and No Time to Die, glorious musical spectacle in No Time to Die, and an enhancement of the time and place in Belfast and The Power of the Dog. For as little as I really know about sound mixing and sound editing, I think this is a great list.

My current bet to win: I’ll bet on No Time to Die here, but “Dune” or “West Side Story” could easily win too.

Oscar Nominees: Best Original Song

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Down to Joy (Belfast), Dos Oruguitas (Encanto), Somehow You Do (Four Good Days), Be Alive (King Richard), No Time to Die (No Time to Die)

I didn’t really look at who was composing the songs I had predicted, and therefore I should have guessed that Diane Warren would return for Somehow You Do (Four Good Days), a track from an otherwise forgettable film I saw at Sundance two full years ago now. I had also bet against Van Morrison and Down to Joy (Belfast), but that made the cut. Be Alive (King Richard) is here, along with the two frontrunners: Dos Oruguitas (Encanto) and No Time to Die (No Time to Die). I still have to familiarize myself with one or two of these, which I plan to do over the next few weeks.

My current bet to win: Given that a different song from “Encanto” is topping the charts, I think No Time to Die is safely out in front.

Oscar Nominees: Best Original Score

My predictions: 2/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Don’t Look Up, Dune, Encanto, Parallel Mothers, The Power of the Dog

My Oscar Volley with Timothy from The Film Experience couldn’t help me get a great score in this category, where I predicted only the two frontrunners here and everywhere else: Dune and The Power of the Dog. I saw Don’t Look Up coming as an alternate but underestimated both Encanto and Parallel Mothers. I’m not mourning the omission of anything from the shortlist in a big way like I have other years, but I think I do need to spend some more time listening to these scores to figure out if those I haven’t played over and over are as good as the ones I know I like.

My current bet to win: I’m sticking with Dune here.

Oscar Nominees: Best Film Editing

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, The Power of the Dog, tick, tick…BOOM!

I’m sad to see “Licorice Pizza” left off here since it would have been a great choice, better in my mind that Don’t Look Up and King Richard, but at least tick, tick…BOOM! made the cut, even if this is its only nomination outside of Andrew Garfield’s best actor bid. Dune and The Power of the Dog continue their domination in nearly every category, with deserved inclusions here for very strong work.

My current bet to win: My bet is Dune, but I worry that “Don’t Look Up” could win this.

Oscar Nominees: Best Costume Design

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Cruella, Cyrano, Dune, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story

Here we have the lone bid for Cyrano, a film that could likely have performed a lot better had it actually been released. It’s not my favorite choice in this category, which would likely be Cruella, but I’m fine with it being here. It did manage to knock out “House of Gucci,” the first bad sign for a film that ended up with one measly nomination after some thought it would be a Best Picture nominee. Nightmare Alley is a great choice to join Dune and West Side Story, two other Best Picture nominees that created fresh looks for preexisting material with plenty of passionate fans.

My current bet to win: This will probably go to West Side Story, but I’d be thrilled if “Cruella” won.

Oscar Nominees: Best Production Design

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story

It was funny to hear this category announced right after Best Cinematography since the nominees are identical! I doubt that’s happened before but won’t research that now. I had bet on “Belfast” and “The French Dispatch,” a film that didn’t show up anywhere, which is a shame. These are all very solid choices, with Nightmare Alley and The Power of the Dog creating compelling period set pieces, The Tragedy of Macbeth making excellent use of its sparse surroundings, and West Side Story and Dune building vivid worlds. A great lineup.

My current bet to win: This can probably go to Nightmare Alley.

Oscar Nominees: Best Cinematography

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story

This isn’t a shock. I had thought that the great work on “Belfast” (watch my interview with Haris Zambarloukos) would translate from the American Society of Cinematographers list while Nightmare Alley would fall out in favor of West Side Story, but both of the latter films made the list. This is exceptional work all throughout this category, with Dune, The Power of the Dog, and The Tragedy of Macbeth all excellent choices. I was fortunate to see all five of these films in a theater, though I think they would work well on a smaller screen too.

My current bet to win: I think it’s going to Dune, but it could be any of these.

Oscar Nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay

My predictions: 5/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: CODA, Drive My Car, Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog

No surprises here, as I had already predicted that “West Side Story” would miss. The Lost Daughter is the only film not nominated for Best Picture, but it still had a better day than expected with two acting nods instead of one. Drive My Car did make the top race and shows up here, and this is one of only three overall bids for my favorite film of the year, CODA. And then we have the two most-nominated films of the year, both featuring strong scripts, Dune and The Power of the Dog.

My current bet to win: I would be very surprised if this didn’t go to The Power of the Dog.

Oscar Nominees: Best Original Screenplay

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Belfast, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Worst Person in the World

I don’t know what it is about Aaron Sorkin that keeps getting him snubbed here, with previous omissions for a handful of films including “Steve Jobs” (in adapted) and now for “Being the Ricardos,” which scored three acting bids and nothing else. The Worst Person in the World, which some prognosticators thought might get higher-profile nominations, is a welcome inclusion here along with Licorice Pizza, which got only two other bids: director and picture. I’m okay with Don’t Look Up being here because it didn’t hog too many other categories, and King Richard was far from a sure thing and performed pretty well. One of the best films of the year, Belfast, rounds out the category, one that should have made room for “Mass” but sadly didn.t

My current bet to win: Maybe this is where Belfast gets rewarded?