Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Christian Bale’s troubled former fighter (The Fighter), John Hawkes’ terrifying uncle (Winter’s Bone), Jeremy Renner’s loose cannon buddy (The Town), Mark Ruffalo’s restaurateur sperm donor (The Kids Are All Right), and Geoffrey Rush’s eccentric speech therapist (The King's Speech).

Previous winners: Christoph Waltz, Heath Ledger, Javier Bardem, Alan Arkin, George Clooney, Morgan Freeman
Who should win: Bale, Rush, or Hawkes
Who will win: As has been the case the past three years, there’s one actor whose chances are all sewn up, and, for the fourth year in a row, he actually deserves the award. I had thought that Bale’s reputation might get the best of him, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Rush did win a BAFTA Award this past weekend, but that has more to do with the fact that Brits absolutely loved “The King’s Speech,” which was up for 14 awards, as opposed to “The Fighter,” up for a measly three. Hawkes’ film was just too small, and there isn’t much chance at all that he could upset. Renner might yet win an Oscar as he earns his second consecutive nomination, though this is not his year. Ruffalo just doesn’t have a shot; his nomination is his win. This is going to be Bale.