Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

The competition: Arrival (Eric Heisserer), Fences (August Wilson), Hidden Figures (Theodore Melfi and Allison Schroeder), Lion (Luke Davies), Moonlight (Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney)

Previous winners: The Big Short, The Imitation Game, 12 Years a Slave, Argo, The Descendants, The Social Network, Precious, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men
My winner: To be announced soon!
The facts: Every nominee here is new to the Oscars this year. Wilson, who passed away in 2005, was awarded a Tony and a Pulitzer for the play version of “Fences” in 1987. All five films are nominated for Best Picture, and Jenkins also contends for Best Director this year. “Moonlight” has been classified by some awards groups as an original screenplay, which has led “Arrival” and “Lion” to win from different groups.

Who should win: Based on the actual script, I’d go with “Fences” or “Arrival.” “Moonlight” and “Lion” are definitely great choices too.
Who will win: I think this goes to Moonlight as an important win for the film, which is second in line to win Best Picture.