Golden Globe Winner Predictions

The Golden Globes are tonight! Check out my winner predictions over at FilmFactual!

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? The Menu, White Noise, Bros

This list is not too surprising, but it does give a big boost to the film I didn’t predict: Triangle of Sadness, which also scored a supporting actress nomination for standout player Dolly De Leon. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, a sequel to a previously-nominated film, also earned just one additional nomination. Babylon did pretty well, picking up four other nominations, while Everything Everywhere All at Once brought in five others. The big winner of the day, however, was The Banshees of Inisherin, which scored in every possible category and even got two bids for supporting actor.

Who will win? I’d like to think that it’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” but I’m worried that The Banshees of Inisherin is now the frontunner.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Motion Picture – Drama

My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Women Talking, She Said, The Whale

This category doesn’t include surprises other than the films it’s missed, namely “Women Talking,” which should have been a shoo-in. I’m seeing Avatar: The Way of Water tonight, apparently after Golden Globe voters who were able to enthusiastically acclaim a sequel to a previous winner in this category. Elvis also did well, meriting a directing bid to go with star Austin Butler’s mention. TÁR performed about as expected, while Top Gun: Maverick could have done better and The Fabelmans missed out on an extra acting nomination or two that it could have gotten. That doesn’t leave a clear frontrunner, which at least is interesting.

Who will win? I feel like this will be The Fabelmans but maybe “Avatar: The Way of Water” can win too?

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Director – Motion Picture

My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Sarah Polley (Women Talking), S.S.Rajamouli (RRR)

This is probably the biggest snub of the day and one that’s inexplicable: Polley, who made one of the best films of the year and would have been the only woman nominated in this category had she been included. I recognize that Rajamouli was a major longshot, but I didn’t see Baz Luhrmann (Elvis) coming, though I guess it does make sense. James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) did win this prize back in 2009 for the first film, so I hope to appreciate his second effort when I go see it tonight. The other three were all expected and their films are the nominations leaders: Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), and, most excitingly, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once).

Who will win? Without Polley in the race, it’s either Cameron or Spielberg.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? She Said, The Whale

I’m relieved that at least Women Talking wasn’t snubbed here since it had the most disappointing day of all, missing out on multiple expected acting bids, a director mention, and a top category nomination. The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, and Everything Everywhere All at Once all scored nominations for directing also, while TÁR surely came close too based on its overall performance.

Who will win? I think this win goes to The Fabelmans but it could be any of them.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Original Song

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Love Is Not Love (Bros), Applause (Tell It Like a Woman), many others

I hadn’t remembered which songs I had selected here and was pleased to see that I did so well overall. I’m most thrilled about Naatu Naatu (RRR), which I have a hard time believing wouldn’t win over anyone’s vote after listening to it and all the others. But Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick) and Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) are both good choices from popular artists – Lady Gaga and Rihanna – and Ciao Papa (Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio) has a particular relevance to its film. It’s interesting to note that there’s only one nominee here that’s the sole representative from its film, Carolina (Where the Crawdads Sing), which also happens to be the only film in this race I have yet to see.

Who will win? I’ll give this one to Hold My Hand.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Original Score

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Tár, RRR

This category features four films that performed very well overall and one that disappointly didn’t: Women Talking. I’m a big fan of that score and of Babylon, which I’m pleased to see also made the cut. Two of the most-nominated films, The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin, are here too, as is Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio. I have been and will continue to listen to these scores to get to know them better and decide whether I prefer any of the latter three.

Who will win? I think Babylon wins this.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Foreign Film

My predictions: 2/5
Who’s missing? Bardo (Mexico), EO (Poland), many others

I did much worse than I thought, but I’m not surprised by any of these nominees. It was a risky decision to predict one Korean film, “Hunt,” over the Oscar-eligible favorite, Decision to Leave (South Korea), and I thought Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) and Close (Belgium) would earn Oscar nominations after missing here. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) remains the frontrunner in my mind, though it may lose here to an Oscar-ineligible choice that also earned a song nomination, RRR (India).

Who will win? I’ll pick RRR.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Animated Film

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Lightyear, Wendell and Wild

I was reaching with my hope that “Lightyear” would be included since apparently I’m the only one who loved the film, and there’s just one nominee that did get in that I have yet to see, Inu-oh from GKIDS. I just watched Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, which is a fun inclusion, and Turning Red made the cut, which was hardly a guarantee. The race to the win will likely be between two other well-received projects: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio, which also received mentions for its score and song.

Who will win? I’ll go with Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 2/5
Who’s missing? Hong Chau (The Whale), Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), Claire Foy (Women Talking)

This category is pretty disappointing, even if it’s a good world we live in where Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) is a shoo-in. I’m shocked by the omission of both “Women Talking” actresses and thought Chau was on track for a nomination too, while Carey Mulligan (She Said) showed up as the lone representative of her film. I’m all for Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) even though I don’t love the movie, but I’m frustrated by the fact that Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is here over her costar Stephanie Hsu. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) is a bit of a surprise given that no performers from the first film got nominated, but it’s a good mention and she is a very strong actress.

Who will win? Without the presumed frontrunners, I’ll bet on Condon to win this.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)

This category boasts two very surprising omissions given that “The Fabelmans” did do very well overall, while “Women Talking” was very unfortunately snubbed in all the major races. Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) showed up for a performance that I don’t think needs to be here, while Brad Pitt (Babylon) merited a nomination that likely won’t translate to Oscar attention. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) managed to join his expected costar Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), providing some in-film competition that may benefit the final nominee in this race, Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once).

Who will win? I think Quan will be able to beat Gleeson.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

My predictions: 5/5
Who’s missing? No one major!

It’s nice to get a perfect score, and this is the only category in which I pulled that off. I just watched Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris) and expected her to be a double nominee today, but she didn’t manage a supporting bid for “The Crown.” The other lone nominee is Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), a great inclusion who I’m glad wasn’t snubbed. Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu) is here with her costar Ralph Fiennes even though her film didn’t make the top category. Margot Robbie (Babylon) is a great choice and her film did very well, though not quite as well as Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once), the surest nominee in this race to head on to the Oscars.

Who will win? It could be Robbie, but I think Yeoh is safe.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Billy Eichner (Bros)

This category isn’t really surprising at all, though it’s a shame that Eichner or his film couldn’t show up since they would have been fun choices. Ralph Fiennes (The Menu) was the nominee I didn’t predict, but he got in and not the film. Only Adam Driver (White Noise) is here on his own, and I’m all for it since it was an extremely entertaining performance in an often unfocused film. Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) is back for the second time for this role, and he’s joined by a newcomer, Diego Calva (Babylon), and a returning winner, Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), whose film bested all others with a whopping eight nominations.

Who will win? Unless Calva’s film sweeps, it’s going to be Farrell.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Naomi Ackie (I Wanna Dance with Somebody)

This category brings one of the day’s most unfortunate omissions in the form of Deadwyler, who I had thought was safe, while Ackie wasn’t included presumably because voters didn’t have a chance to see the movie (I also have not yet). It shouldn’t be too much of a surprise to see Ana de Armas (Blonde) here, and that’s one of three films total that I now need to see as a result of today’s nominations. Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) also made the cut despite her film missing out in all other categories, and the same was true for Viola Davis (The Woman King). The other two are in much better company, with Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) in the most-nominated drama movie and Cate Blanchett (TÁR) in the film tied for next in line.

Who will win? This feels like it should be safe for Blanchett with Deadwyler out of the running.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

It wasn’t too smart to assume that both Hugh Jackman (The Son) and Bill Nighy (Living) would be left out, those it’s worth noting that neither film scored any other nominations. An expected surge of enthusiasm didn’t help Cruise’s film, which scored two mentions, and all the independent energy around Mescal’s also didn’t materialize into anything with this awards body. And I’m sad about the underperformance of my top film of the year, but at least Brendan Fraser (The Whale) did get in here. Another bright spot is Jeremy Pope (The Inspection), also representing his film all on his own. The fifth nominee, Austin Butler (Elvis), saw his film do much better, and he may be the frontrunner now as the only one whose film has any degree of other support with this awards body.

Who will win? At this point, I’m picking Butler, though I’d of course love for it to be Fraser.

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Cyrano
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
tick, tick…BOOM!
West Side Story

Two presumed Oscar frontrunners for Best Picture are also the likely leaders here, Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin. It’s probable that sequel Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story will join its original as a nominee in this category, and Babylon feels like a good bet even if not everyone loves it. For the fifth slot, The Menu, Bros, and Triangle of Sadness seem likeliest. Other hopefuls include Cha Cha Real Smooth, White Noise, Spirited, Catherine Called Birdy, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Nope, Hustle, Amsterdam, Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul, A Man Called Otto, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, and, presuming they’re eligible here, Bodies Bodies Bodies or Bullet Train. Watch out also for two international features benefiting from being able to compete here this year: Bardo and RRR.

Current predictions:
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
The Menu

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Drama

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog

An important update in this race is that international features are now eligible, though I’m not sure any will make the cut this time around, with All Quiet on the Western Front and Decision to Leave probably likeliest to do so, if any do. The frontrunners are The Fabelmans, Women Talking, and Tár. I think that She Said and Top Gun: Maverick will join them, but they’ll face plenty of competition from The Whale, Empire of Light, Elvis, Aftersun, Till, Causeway, Bones and All, Living, The Woman King, Emancipation, The Son, Thirteen Lives, and The Inspection. Avatar: The Way of Water and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever may also join their predecessors as nominees in this category.

Current predictions:
The Fabelmans
She Said
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

This is a category that mostly draws from Best Motion Picture - Drama nominees and a well-received Comedy/Musical honoree or two. The last two years have featured at least two female nominees, and that may or may not be repeated this year. Sarah Polley (Women Talking) is a sure thing, while Maria Schrader (She Said) and Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King) are true longshots. Likeliest to join Polley are Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Other possibilities include Todd Field (Tár), Damien Chazelle (Babylon), James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Darren Aronofsky (The Whale), Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness), Sam Mendes (Empire of Light), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), and Noah Baumbach (White Noise). I suspect that the final slot will go to an international director who just won the New York Film Critics Circle prize: S.S. Rajamouli (RRR).

Current predictions:
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
S.S. Rajamouli (RRR)
Sarah Polley (Women Talking)

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog

The Globes don’t have separate categories for original and adapted screenplays, which means that the buzziest films nominated in the top races often place here, along with a few surprising inclusions every couple of years. I have a pretty good idea of four films that will probably place: The Fabelmans, Women Talking, The Banshees of Inisherin, and Everything Everywhere All at Once. For the fifth slot, there are many options. I’m opting for She Said, though it could also be The Whale, Tár, or Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. Other options include The Menu, White Noise, Triangle of Sadness, and Empire of Light. If the films are well-loved, watch out for Babylon, Bros, Elvis, and RRR.

Current predictions:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
She Said
Women Talking

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Original Song

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Down to Joy (Belfast)
Dos Oruguitas (Encanto)
Be Alive (King Richard)
No Time to Die (No Time to Die)
Here I Am (Singing My Way Home) (Respect)

This category is especially hard to predict without the list of fifteen finalists for the corresponding Oscar race, which won’t be released until after Globe nominations are unveiled. Presumed frontrunners include Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick), Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), This is a Life (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Carolina (Where the Crawdads Sing), Do a Little Good (Spirited), Stand Up (Till), Nobody Like U (Turning Red), and Ciao Papa (Pinocchio). It would be fun to see creative choices like Naatu Naatu (RRR) and Love is Not Love (Bros), and watch out also for Applause (Tell It Like a Woman) and My Mind and Me (Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me), signature songs from movies that will not show up in any other categories.

Current predictions:
Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Love is Not Love (Bros)
Naatu Naatu (RRR)
Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick)
Carolina (Where the Crawdads Sing)