Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 22nd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Mary J. Blige, Allison Janney, Lesley Manville, Laurie Metcalf, Octavia Spencer

My choices: Coming in February!

This year’s locks: Amy Adams, Rachel Weisz, Emma Stone

Very likely: Regina King

Possible: Claire Foy, Thomasin McKenzie, Emily Blunt, Margot Robbie

Unlikely: Elizabeth Debicki, Nicole Kidman

The rundown: The biggest lock of the year would have been Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), who has collected a very healthy twenty-seven prizes for her work this far, but when she got snubbed by SAG, it sounded an alarm that has likely been silenced by her Globe win earlier this week, though a subsequent BAFTA snub isn’t good news either. She’s almost definitely set to join Amy Adams (Vice), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite), and Emma Stone (The Favourite), who should be safe even if their films underperform. The fifth slot is trickier. Claire Foy (First Man) managed a Golden Globe nomination even when her film was mostly shut out, and even though SAG ignored her, she can probably make the cut. Their choices were Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place), a near-silent turn from an actress likelier to be cited for the performance this year in which she sings and dances, and Margot Robbie (Mary, Queen of Scots), a nominee last year whose film hasn’t shown up all that much this awards season. I’m devastated that Elizabeth Debicki (Widows) and her film have been ignored by almost all guilds and critics’ groups, and it would be great to see her show up anyway. Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) managed a Critics’ Choice Award nomination and several other mentions, and given her eternal popularity, it’s never smart to count her out. Some are backing Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians), but I don't think she'll earn enough votes. The other wild card is Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace), an actress whose performance belongs in the leading race but who will unfortunately probably be ignored altogether with her under-the-radar film.

One possible crazy scenario: Showing true fever for the foreign-language film that I’m predicting to win Best Picture, Marina de Tavira (Roma) joins her costar Yalitza Aparicio to take that fifth spot.

Forecasted winner: If she gets nominated, I think King takes it.