Your Guide to the Oscars

Last year, I managed to see every single film nominated in every category for the first time. This year, I did it again, only missing all fifteen shorts and two of the features when nominations were announced and then waiting until just last week to start catching up on those last seventeen films. I’m ready but I also feel like there’s a certain level of predictability going into tonight that means that any winner won’t be all that thrilling. There’s no one nominee that I feel like I’m really rooting for, and no underdog either, though I do hope that “If Beale Street Could Talk” gets something.

The last three years have produced far-from-guaranteed Best Picture winners, and this year feels a bit like last year in that “Roma” is far enough ahead of the pack but with enough doubt around its chances due to historical statistics that its victory isn’t assured. I feel like the Best Supporting Actress category could be a turning point of sorts. Regina King is the expected winner but, thanks to some snubs from other organizations, she’s not a lock. If Rachel Weisz wins, watch out for “The Favouriterite” to dominate. If Marina de Tavira wins with absolutely no precursor support, it’s going to be all about “Roma.” And then Olivia Colman, fresh off a BAFTA win, could feasibly dethrone Glenn Close too for Best Actress, though Yalitza Aparicio triumphing there for her first film role would be a true shock.

Even though it’s probably my fifth or sixth favorite among the Best Picture nominees, I’d be fine with “A Star is Born” surprising to win the top award everyone thought it might win long ago. I’d be much more excited by an upset victory by “Black Panther,” a movie that I feel most can easily support and definitely surpassed its genre expectations.

I’ve detailed the nominees and their chances in each of the categories below, with my prediction bolded, and you can click on each race heading to read my full Oscar winner predictions. Click on film titles for full reviews of each. Happy watching!

Best Picture
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

Best Director
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Adam McKay (Vice)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (Vice)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born

Best Cinematography
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star is Born

Best Art Direction
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

Best Costume Design
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary, Queen of Scots

Best Film Editing
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

Best Original Score
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

Best Original Song
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
“All the Stars” (Black Panther)
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” (Mary Poppins Returns)
“I’ll Fight” (RBG)
“Shallow” (A Star is Born)

Best Sound
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born

Best Sound Editing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Documentary Short Film
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
Period. End of Sentence.
A Night at the Garden

Best Animated Short Film
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

Best Live Action Short Film
Detainment
Fauve
Madre
Marguerite
Skin

Best Documentary
Free Solo
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG
Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Best Foreign Language Film
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Picture

The competition: BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star is Born, Vice

Previous winners: The Shape of Water, Moonlight, Spotlight, Birdman, 12 Years a Slave, Argo, The Artist
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: I wrote an article for The Film Experience a week or two detailing the factors preventing each film from taking home this prize – I’ll direct you to that piece for all of the background. This year is a bit complicated because, as a foreign film, “Roma” wasn’t eligible for Best Motion Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes, where the prize went to “Bohemian Rhapsody,” the film that everyone had ranked dead-last in their predictions. “Green Book,” the Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical winner, also won the PGA, and now we’ve gotten to an unprecedented moment where both Globe winners aren’t nominated for Best Director. “Eighth Grade” surprised by taking home the WGA, and it’s not even contending for any Oscars, joined by “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” which was the only film not nominated for Best Picture up for Best Adapted Screenplay there. “Roma” did manage to win countless critics’ prizes as well as the Critics’ Choice Award and the DGA.

It’s possible that “The Favourite” could benefit from the boost of tying “Roma” for the most nominations – ten – though it would really have to prevail all over, which I’m not sure I see it doing. “A Star is Born,” once the frontrunner before it sort of failed of slumped out of awards season, has eight bids, as does “Vice,” a film that will win Best Makeup and Hairstyling and maybe Best Film Editing, along with an outside shot for both Best Original Screenplay and Best Actor. “Black Panther,” which has seven nominations, may not win any of them, which would be disappointing, while “BlacKkKlansman” might win just one (or none) of its six bids, with Best Adapted Screenplay looking likeliest, even though I’m not predicting it. “Bohemian Rhapsody” is actually looking decent for a few of its five nominations, and “Green Book” might also prevail in more than one of its five categories, even though it’s only really locked for Best Supporting Actor.

Who should win: “Vice” is my least favorite of these – I’ve written many times about my feelings on the film. “BlacKkKlansman” didn’t wow me, and I think its strong finish accounts for more of people’s positive feelings towards the film than anything. I’d rank “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “A Star is Born” pretty much equally out of all the films I saw this year, which I’m sure bothers most critics, but to me they were both engaging and energizing even if they weren’t my favorites of the year. The other four are all also essentially the same to me, just missing my top ten. I’d be thrilled if any of them won, though I’ll admit that “Black Panther” or “The Favourite” would both be particularly cool even if I liked the other two just as much.
Who will win: With all this in mind, I do see the possibility of a popular upset by “Green Book,” but not really by “Bohemian Rhapsody.” I don’t see either “BlacKkKlansman” or “The Favourite” surging enough, and I’d actually say the likeliest occurrence in the event that people don’t want to reward “Roma” because it’s not an English-language movie and it’s produced by Netflix, “A Star is Born” finally gets the due we all thought it would a while back. While there has been more of a contest than usual every year since 2013, I think Roma is even further ahead than “The Shape of Water” was at this time last year, mainly because no other film is likely enough to topple it. But who knows, it could still be possible! I’ll still be holding my breath at the end of the night.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Director

The competition: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Adam McKay (Vice)

Previous winners: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water), Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman), Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: All of these directors have contended for Oscars before, but only two have been nominated in this category. Cuaron won this award in 2013 for “Gravity,” and, in addition to an editing win for that film and screenwriting bids for “Children of Men” in 2006 and “Y Tu Mama Tambien” in 2002, he contends for writing, producing, and shooting his film this year. McKay was nominated three years ago for “The Big Short,” winning for his screenplay, and he is also a nominee this year for writing and producing his film. Pawlikowski won the Best Foreign Film award in 2014 for “Ida,” and Lanthimos was a nominee there in 2011 for “Dogtooth” before contending in 2016 for his screenplay for “The Lobster.” Lanthimos is also nominated as a producer this year. Lee’s previous bids include a screenwriting nod for “Do the Right Thing” in 1989, a Best Documentary mention in 1997 for “4 Little Girls,” and an honorary award in 2015. He is also nominated for writing and producing his film this year. All but “Cold War” contend for the top prize and screenwriting honors. No film without a Best Picture nomination has ever won this prize. Both “Cold War” and “Roma” are nominated for Best Foreign Film, making this the first time that two honorees in that category are contending here. In addition to numerous critics’ prizes, Cuaron has taken home the DGA Award, the Critics’ Choice prize, the Golden Globe, and the BAFTA. With the exception of when Ben Affleck wasn’t nominated for an Oscar in 2012 for “Argo,” the DGA winner has gone on to win this award every year for the past fifteen years.

Who should win: I found McKay’s structuring of “Vice” to be deeply irritating, and I blame him more than most for why that film is what it is. I can appreciate the aesthetics of “Cold War,” but that film wouldn’t make my list. The same is true of “BlacKkKlansman,” which Lee leaves his mark all over. In a competition between Lanthimos and Cuaron, I’m not set on a winner since both are enormously deserving for two very different films.
Who will win: There are rumblings that Lee could earn his due after barely being nominated for his entire career, but there’s no reason to expect that Cuaron has anything going against him. A loss here would be the biggest surprise of the night.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Animated Short

The nominees:
Animal Behaviour (B)
This clever short launches right away into the obvious proclivities of its animal characters, using them as subjects they need to discuss in therapy. The notion of working through issues that are defining characteristics of certain species is indeed funny, though this short dives a bit too deep and fully into its premise, covering sexual cannibalism and other wonderful topics in just fourteen short minutes. This feels more like a trailer for a TV series that could better handle this idea.

Bao (B+)
Pixar’s contribution to this field, which played before “Incredibles 2,” is an extremely endearing story about an empty-nester who conjures up a new child when a dumpling she makes comes to life. There’s never been a better argument for doing away completely with dialogue, as this heartwarming tale, clocking in at just seven minutes, manages to convey the power of relationships and spending time together through inventive humor.

Late Afternoon (B)
This Irish short featuring the voice of Fionnula Flanagan as an elderly woman recalling memories from her past comes from Cartoon Saloon, which has produced Best Animated Feature nominees “The Secret of Kells,” “The Song of the Sea,” and “The Breadwinner.” This exploration of its protagonist’s life through the disjointed events she recalls and can’t quite place feels very much like those, using its plot as a canvas on which to travel. That journey is captivating if not terribly structured.

One Small Step (B)
It’s easy to be inspired by this simple story of a young Chinese-American girl who wants nothing more than to become an astronaut. Formative moments in which she finds a space helmet and then ultimately applies for an actual training moment are conveyed without conversation and with straightforward imagery that represents the power of what being able to explore space means to her. There’s not much more to it, but it’s sweet.

Weekends (B)
This film is a powerful representation of the effects of divorce, as a young boy goes back and forth between his parents’ two homes. Animation proves enormously useful as a tool here as his imagination runs wild and colors his experiences, illustrated on screen with very little dialogue to detract from the feeling of being trapped in this cycle of nonstop moving. It’s decent and worthwhile, but ultimately a bit unfocused.

Previous winners: Dear Basketball, Piper, Bear Story, Feast, Mr. Hublot, Paperman, The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

For your information: “Animal Behaviour” co-directors David Fine and Alison Snowden won this award in 1994 for “Bob’s Birthday,” and Fine was also nominated in 1985 for “Second Class Mail.” “Animal Behaviour” is produced by the National Film Board of Canada, which has won six prizes out of thirty-five nominations. “Bao” comes from Pixar, a fourteen-time nominee with four wins. The other three are all either from companies never nominated or independent distributors.

Who should win: This list is much, much more palatable than the live action field. All five were perfectly good, though “Bao” came off as much more fully rounded to me than the rest.
Who will win: I feel like either “Animal Behaviour” or “Weekends” could earn enough votes, but I think Bao is far enough out front.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Live Action Short

The nominees:
Detainment (B-)
This thirty-minute recreation of the interrogation of two young boys suspected in the disappearance and murder of a three-year-old is immensely disturbing, and becomes even more so as their secrets unfold. While the performances of young actors Ely Solan and Leon Hughes are excellent, the film feels disjointed thanks to its editing, and the subject matter is remarkably unpleasant. It also appears that both the victim’s mother and the detective who investigated the case aren’t happy that these horrifying true events were dramatized and now contending for an award.

Fauve (C-)
Historically, films about friends nominated in this category never turn out too well for those involved. This Canadian tale of two boys playing around in an empty mine turns bleak quickly when one of them makes clear that he’s not joking and is actually drowning in quicksand. This is a miserable film without too many redeeming qualities, begging the question of why it is that such serious, depressing films always seem to make up the majority of the nominees in this category each year.

Madre (C+)
This film’s own summary describes it as “every parent’s nightmare,” as a Spanish woman receives a phone call from her six-year-old son telling her that he has been abandoned alone on a beach somewhere in France by his father. It’s difficult not to be drawn in and captivated by the plight of this mother desperate to find and comfort her son, but, like most of these films, it’s an experience that feels needlessly dark, and a bit too prone to fanciful visual editing.

Marguerite (B)
This is the only moderately pleasant or optimistic film in the bunch, meeting a French woman and her nurse during their daily interactions. Marguerite’s curiosity about her nurse Rachel’s romantic relationship helps her think back about events in her own life. Not too much happens here, but it’s nice to see a relationship built on true equality and respect in contrast to everything else in this field.

Skin (C)
The only American entry in this bunch is actually the most horrific, following a ten-year-old white boy whose friendly exchange with a black man in a supermarket leads to a slew of hateful violence. As a commentary on sentiments fueling the nation at this moment in time, this film might be effective, but its presentation is so off-putting and brutal that it’s hard to digest. The presence of recognizable actors like Jonathan Tucker from “Justified,” Danielle Macdonald from “Paradise Hills,” and Lonnie Chavis from “This Is Us” only adds to the discomfort.

Previous winners: The Silent Child, Sing, Stutterer, The Phone Call, Helium, Curfew, The Shore

For your information: This is the first nomination for all directors and produced involved on these five projects.

Who should win: I had heard that these films were all so dark, and it’s completely true. The lone ray of moderate sunshine – “Marguerite” – is my clear choice.
Who will win: Optimism has to prevail somehow here, even if there are powerful elements in the other options. I could sort of see “Detainment” or “Fauve” winning, but I’m betting on Marguerite.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Short

The nominees:
Black Sheep (B)
This intimate and harrowing conversation with Cornelius Walker, a British teenager from a Nigerian family who, at a young age, decided to confront racism from those in the new neighborhood he moved to by trying to fit in with and befriend his tormentors. This is hardly an affirming story of peaceful coexistence, but rather a cautionary tale about the engaging power and infectious nature of hate. Though it runs twenty-six minutes, it feels like there is more to this story that would have been worth including. Watch it for yourself on The Guardian.

End Game (B)
I was already familiar with Zen Hospice Project in San Francisco because my wife works in that field, and it’s certainly affirming to see a representation of a more positive end to life that represents a wide range of options offered to patients without stigmas attached. That said, this film doesn’t have the same emotional power as “Extremis,” a nominee here two years ago, did, presenting its narrative and its highlighted subjects with care but without truly enabling viewers to be with them. Watch it for yourself on Netflix.

Lifeboat (B)
This isn’t the first film to look at the people who try to help migrants hopelessly unprepared for their journeys fleeing persecution via the Mediterranean Sea. “Fire at Sea” and “4.1 Miles” were both nominees two years ago, in the feature and short categories, respectively, and this thirty-four-minute spotlight on the German group Sea-Watch that searches out and rescues North African migrants definitely showcases the dangers of those who attempt to cross the waters and the bravery of those who do everything possible to save them. Though its subject matter is undeniably important, the film doesn’t feel urgent or truly personal. Watch it for yourself on The New Yorker.

A Night at the Garden (B+)
The shortest of all these – clocking in at just seven minutes – is also the most chilling, contained only of archival footage of an American Nazi rally at Madison Square Garden in 1939. It’s evidently meant to evoke images of Trump and nationalism, particularly when a Jewish protester jumps on stage, and it’s effective in that way and in a sheer representation of something that looks and feels distinctly un-American, far too recognizable in today’s society even if the Nazi salute isn’t being proudly flashed in such a public venue in New York City. Watch it for yourself on YouTube.

Period. End of Sentence. (B+)
This film’s clever title is just one indicator of its value. This buoyant trip to India shows how a community that formerly had no access to pads is transformed by the installation of a sanitary pad machine, which also leads to an entirely new workforce and general changing attitude towards and empowerment of women. It’s an energetic and heartfelt look at an unexpected influencer with an enormous impact on a rural village halfway around the world which any viewer, male or female, should be able to find endearing. Watch it for yourself on Netflix.

Previous winners: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405, The White Helmets, A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness, Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, The Lady in Number 6, Inocente, Saving Face
For your information: “End Game” co-director Rob Epstein has won the feature documentary Oscar twice, for “The Times of Harvey Milk” in 1984 and “Common Threads: Stories from the Quilt” in 1989. “Lifeboat” co-producer Bryn Mooser was previously nominated in this category in 2015 for “Body Team 12.” “A Night at the Garden” director Marshall Curry has two previous nominations in the feature documentary Oscar category, for “Street Fight” in 2005 and “If a Tree Falls” in 2011.

Who should win: These all have worthwhile focuses. While “A Night at the Garden” makes tremendous use of film shot decades ago, “Period. End of Sentence.” is the most well-rounded and strongly-made of the five.
Who will win: While I’ve done terribly in the other short races, I’ve correctly predicted this category for the past five years. Therefore, I’m inclined to endorse Period. End of Sentence. even though all these films are sure to garner votes and could easily win.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Feature

The competition: Free Solo, Hale County This Morning, This Evening, Minding the Gap, Of Fathers and Sons, RBG

Previous winners: Icarus, OJ: Made in America, Amy, Citizenfour, Twenty Feet from Stardom, Searching for Sugar Man
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Only one nominee has been here before, and that’s “Hale County This Morning, This Evening” co-producer Joslyn Barnes, who was nominated last year for “Strong Island.” It’s likely easier for people to watch “Minding the Gap” and “RBG” since they’re available on Hulu. “Minding the Gap” won the International Documentary Awards’ feature prize, while “Won’t You Be My Neighbor” and “Three Identical Strangers,” both of which missed out on a place on this list, took top honors from the PGA, DGA, and Critics Choice Documentary Awards. The only film nominated for all those prizes was “Free Solo.”

Who should win: I wasn’t fond of “Hale County This Morning, This Evening.” Both “Of Fathers and Sons” and “Minding the Gap” shone a light on interesting subjects with a focused viewpoint. “RBG” was extremely entertaining, but nothing wowed me as much as the intense “Free Solo.”
Who will win: It’s far from guaranteed, but Free Solo should be able to beat out “RBG” barring an upset from one of the two less mainstream selections here.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Foreign Film

The competition: Capernaum (Lebanon), Cold War (Poland), Never Look Away (Germany), Roma (Mexico), Shoplifters (Japan)

Previous winners: A Fantastic Woman (Chile), The Salesman (Iran), Son of Saul (Hungary), Ida (Poland), The Great Beauty (Italy), Amour (Austria), A Separation (Iran), In a Better World (Denmark)
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: “Roma” is the first nominee in this category to contend both for Best Picture and for any acting award since “Amour” in 2012, and the first-ever nominee here to be up for two acting prizes, competing in ten categories overall. “Roma” director Alfonso Cuaron is himself nominated for producing, directing, writing, and shooting his film, and previously won for directing and editing “Gravity” in 2013. “Cold War” director Pawel Pawlikowski, who is also nominated for Best Director, won this award in 2014 for “Ida.” “Never Look Away” director Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck won this award in 2006 for “The Lives of Others.” This is the first time since 1976 that two films here are also nominated for directing and only the second time ever that three of these films are cited for cinematography. Japan has four wins in this category out of fifteen nominations. Germany has two wins out of ten nominations. Poland has one win out of ten nominations. Mexico has yet to win after eight nominations, and this is the second consecutive bid for Lebanon and its second overall. “Roma” has taken home prizes in this category from the Critics’ Choice Awards, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes.

Who should win: I didn’t love the very long “Never Look Away” despite some positive elements, and had similar issues with “Cold War.” “Shoplifters” is certainly good, but both “Capernaum” and “Roma” are near the top of my list of overall favorites this past year, and both would be equally deserving of a win.
Who will win: It could be “Cold War” in an upset, but I think Roma takes it easily.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Animated Feature

The competition: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Previous winners: Coco, Zootopia, Inside Out, Big Hero 6, Frozen, Brave, Rango, Toy Story 3, Up, Wall-E, Ratatouille, Happy Feet, Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, The Incredibles, Finding Nemo, Spirited Away, Shrek
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Both “Incredibles 2” and “Ralph Breaks the Internet” are sequels to previous nominees in this category – “The Incredibles” won in 2004, and “Wreck-It Ralph” contended in 2012. “Incredibles 2” comes from Pixar, which has won nine out of eleven nominations, including last year for “Coco.” “Ralph Breaks the Internet” is from Disney, which boasts three wins out of then nominations, most recently for “Zootopia” in 2016. “Isle of Dogs,” directed by six-time nominee Wes Anderson, is the second nominee from American Empirical Pictures after Anderson’s 2009 film “Fantastic Mr. Fox.” “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” is Sony’s second nominee after “Surf’s Up” back in 2007. “Mirai” is the first film to contend from Studio Chizu. “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” took the top prize at the Annie Awards (and all six other categories in which it was nominated), while “Mirai” claimed the best independent feature award. “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” also won the Golden Globe, the Critics’ Choice Award, and the PGA Award. The only film ever to win all three and then lose the Oscar was “Cars,” but it’s unlikely that a “Happy Feet” would upset this year. The only film with a nomination in any other category is “Isle of Dogs,” which contends for Best Original Score.

Who should win: This is a great list. My favorites are “Ralph Breaks the Internet” and “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.”
Who will win: There doesn’t seem to be any film likely to knock out Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Visual Effects

The competition: Avengers: Infinity War (Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, and Dan Sudick), Christopher Robin (Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones, and Chris Corbould), First Man (Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles, and J. D. Schwalm), Ready Player One (Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler, and David Shirk), Solo: A Star Wars Story (Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, and Dominic Tuohy)

Previous winners: Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo, Inception
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Many of these nominees have contended together before for some of the same projects. De Leeuw, Earl, and Sudick all contended previously together in 2014 for “Captain America: The Winter Soldier.” Earl was also nominated for “Transformers” and “Star Trek,” while Sudick was a nominee seven other times, with five of those being Marvel movies. Corbould was nominated for “The Dark Knight,” “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” and “Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” and won in 2010 for “Inception.” Lambert won last year for “Blade Runner 2049” and Hunter prevailed in 2014 for “Interstellar.” Guyett was nominated for “Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban,” “Star Trek,” “Star Trek Into Darkness,” and “Star Wars: The Force Awakens.” Butler was nominated for “Transformers: Dark of the Moon.” Tubach was nominated for “Star Trek Into Darkness” and “Star Wars: The Force Awakens.” Scanlan was nominated for “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” and “Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” and won for “Babe” back in 1995. All five of these films were up for Visual Effects Society Awards, with “Avengers: Infinity War” taking home four prizes and “First Man” and “Ready Player One” each taking home one award. While last year, all five of the nominees were part of series or franchises that had been nominated here before, only two qualify this year. Every “Star Wars” movie except for “Revenge of the Sith” been honored, with only the original three films winning the award, and this marks the fourth consecutive nomination for the series. Eight Marvel films that lead into “Avengers: Infinity War” have contended in the past decade, with the franchise yet to win an award here. Despite a six-year stretch from 2008 to 2013, this award has only gone to a Best Picture nominee twenty-two times since the inception of the Oscars.

Who should win: I was not impressed with the mostly space-less visuals in “Solo: A Star Wars Story” and don’t think it belongs here at all. “Christopher Robin” did a good job with blending its talking animals into the world around them, but it didn’t wow me. The same goes for “Ready Player One,” set almost entirely in a virtual world. “First Man” made the experience of going to the moon a mesmerizing one, but how can anything compare to the incredible effort and consistent engaging sight that was everything in “Avengers: Infinity War”?
Who will win: While it’s possible that “Ready Player One” or “First Man” could get enough votes, I think Marvel gets its first big win for Avengers: Infinity War.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The competition: Border (Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer), Mary Queen of Scots (Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, and Jessica Brooks), Vice (Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, and Patricia Dehaney)

Previous winners: Darkest Hour, Suicide Squad, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Dallas Buyers Club, Les Miserables, The Iron Lady
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Shircore won in 1998 for “Elizabeth” and was nominated in 2009 for “The Young Victoria.” Cannom has eight previous nominations, with wins in 1992 for “Bram Stoker’s Dracula,” in 1993 for “Mrs. Doutbfire,” and in 2008 for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.” The last foreign-language films to win this prize were “La Vie en Rose” in 2007 and “Pan’s Labyrinth” in 2006. Six winners in the last ten years in this category have been Best Picture nominees, with “Vice” being the only one with that distinction this year. Both “Mary Queen of Scots” and “Vice” contend for two awards from the Hollywood Makeup Artist and Hair Stylist Guild Awards.

Who should win: The two leads in both “Border” and “Mary Queen of Scots” truly looked like the characters they were supposed to play, living in the worlds they inhabited, though the latter had the added benefit of purposeful hairstyling. Seeing Christian Bale look just like Dick Cheney is something else, and though there’s plenty I didn’t like about that film, out of this group, it gets my vote easily in this contest.
Who will win: It’s hard to imagine anything but Vice taking this.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Sound Editing

The competition: Black Panther (Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker), Bohemian Rhapsody (John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone), First Man (Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan), A Quiet Place (Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl), Roma (Sergio Díaz and Skip Lievsay)

Previous winners: Dunkirk, Arrival, Mad Max: Fury Road, American Sniper, Gravity, Skyfall/Zero Dark Thirty, Hugo
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Burtt has seven previous nominations, with three wins from the 1980s for “Raiders of the Lost Ark,” “E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial,” and “Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade.” Boeddeker was previously nominated in 2013 for “All is Lost” and also contends for sound mixing this year. Lee was nominated in 2016 for “La La Land” in this category and for sound mixing, and earned double nominations again this year. Morgan returns with her second bid after “La La Land.” Van der Ryan has five previous nominations, with wins for “The Two Towers” in 2002 and “King Kong” in 2005. Lievsay has previous nominations here for “No Country for Old Men” and “True Grit,” along with a win for “Gravity” in sound mixing and a nomination there this year too. All five of these films contend for multiple Golden Reel Awards from the Motion Picture Sound Editors, and only “A Quiet Place” is not also nominated for Best Sound.

Who should win: I distinctly remember the experiencing of hearing “Roma” just as strongly as seeing it, and “First Man” was also an incredible auditory product.
Who will win: It could be any of these, but I’m betting on First Man.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Sound

The competition: Black Panther (Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin), Bohemian Rhapsody (Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali), First Man (Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis), Roma (Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio Garcia), A Star is Born (Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow)

Previous winners: Dunkirk, Hacksaw Ridge, Mad Max: Fury Road, Whiplash, Gravity, Les Miserables, Hugo
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Boeddeker also contends for sound editing this year and was previously nominated in this category for “All is Lost” in 2013. Devlin has four previous nominations, three of which are from the “Transformers” franchise. Massey has seven previous nominations, the most recent of which was in 2015 for “The Martian.” Cavagin and Ellis were both up for “Baby Driver” last year. Taylor has three previous nominations and Montaño has eight, both last nominated together in 2015 for “The Revenant.” Lee contended for “La La Land” in 2016 in both this category and sound editing, and earned that same double nomination this year. Lievsay won this prize in 2013 for “Gravity” with three additional previous nominations in this race, along with one for sound editing this year. Garcia contended in 2012 for “Argo.” All but “Roma” are nominated at the Cinema Audio Society Awards, and “A Star is Born” is the only film here not also contending for Best Sound Editing.

Who should win: All of these films sound great. To me, the definitive beat of life and combat in “Black Panther” or the toe-tapping concert acoustics in “Bohemian Rhapsody” are the most memorable.
Who will win: I think that Bohemian Rhapsody can take this, though I would have said “A Star is Born” a while back.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Song

The competition: “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (David Rawlings and Gillian Welch), “All the Stars” – Black Panther (Kendrick Lamar, Sounwave, Anthony Tiffith, and SZA), “The Place Where Lost Things Go” – Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman), “I’ll Fight” – RBG (Diane Warren), “Shallow” – A Star is Born (Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt)

Previous winners: Remember Me (Coco), City of Stars (La La Land), Writing’s on the Wall (Spectre), Glory (Selma), Let It Go (Frozen), Skyfall (Skyfall), Man or Muppet (The Muppets)
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Gaga and Warren were nominated together in 2015 for their song from “The Hunting Ground.” Warren has eight additional nominations, including one last year for her song from “Marshall.” Shaiman has two previous nominations in this category for songs from “Sleepless in Seattle” in 1993 and “South Park: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut” in 1999, in addition to three previous score bids and a mention in that category this year. The only song from a documentary ever to win was from “An Inconvenient Truth” in 2006. The first “Mary Poppins” film won this prize in 1964 for “Chim Chim Cher-ee.” The last six Golden Globe winners have gone on to be nominated here, with four of them triumphing. “Shallow” won the Globe this year.

Who should win: I’ve listened to every one of these songs many, many times and remember the three that were performed during the actual films well. I’m not so into “All the Stars,” though I appreciate its value as an anthem for its film. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” was much more tolerable to me than the other song from that same film that made the finalist list, and it has a good message even if it’s not my favorite. “I’ll Fight” does a strong job representing it’s film themes. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” was part of what made the title segment so hilarious. Nothing compares to the incredible energy of “Swallow,” my clear choice and everyone else’s.
Who will win: Whenever there’s a clear frontrunner in this category, it tends to win. There’s no reason to predict anything but Shallow.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Score

The competition: BlacKkKlansman (Terence Blanchard), Black Panther (Ludwig Göransson), If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell), Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat), Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman)

Previous winners: The Shape of Water, La La Land, The Hateful Eight, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Gravity, Life of Pi, The Artist
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Britell was nominated two years ago for his last collaboration with director Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight.” This is the tenth nomination for last year’s winner Desplat, who triumphed in 2017 for “The Shape of Water” and in 2014 for “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” Shaiman has three nominations from the 1990s in the now-defunct Original Musical or Comedy Score category for “The American President,” “The First Wives Club,” and “Patch Adams.” He also contends for the song from his film this year. The Golden Globe winner, “First Man,” didn’t end up getting nominated. In the past two decades, this award has gone to a film not nominated for Best Picture only three times.
Who should win: I didn’t remember the score from “Mary Poppins Returns” so fondly, but listening to it again, I can appreciate its energy. “BlacKkKlansman” was sufficiently moody, and I’m happy to see Blanchard finally earn his first nomination. I’m all for any of the other three taking this because they were both memorable and unique in their own ways.
Who will win: Without the Globe winner in the mix, I’m not so sure, but I think it might be the only win for Black Panther.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Film Editing

The competition: BlacKkKlansman (Barry Alexander Brown), Bohemian Rhapsody (John Ottman), The Favourite (Yorgos Mavropsaridis), Green Book (Patrick J. Don Vito), Vice (Hank Corwin)

Previous winners: Dunkirk, Hacksaw Ridge, Mad Max: Fury Road, Whiplash, Gravity, Argo, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Only Corwin has been nominated before, for his last collaboration with director Adam McKay, “The Big Short,” in 2015. All five of these films were nominated for the ACE Eddie Award, with “The Favourite” winning the comedy prize and “Bohemian Rhapsody” taking the dramatic honor. “Vice” won the BAFTA, defeating both ACE Eddie recipients. Four of the last ten Oscars winners didn’t win either ACE Eddie. The winner of this award hasn’t gone on to win Best Picture since “Argo” in 2012, and it’s actually much more common for the two not to match up, though all but two of the last ten winners were nominated for the top prize. All five of these films are nominated for Best Picture.

Who should win: This is a strange list in a lot of ways. “Vice” was an irritating film, and its very purposeful construction was a big reason for that. “BlacKkKlansman” is made moodier and more stylized by the imprint of its editor, which made it moderately effective for me. “Bohemian Rhapsody,” which I liked more than most critics, is long but feels energizing because of the way it’s assembled. “Green Book” features an entertaining road trip in which every scene feels vital and relevant. There’s no matching the pace of “The Favourite,” however, which weaves together its wild characters and even more outrageous story stunningly.
Who will win: This is tough. Some might say that “BlacKkKlansman” shows up to surprise, and “Vice” will also probably get votes. It’s hard to imagine “Green Book” triumphing here, especially without a Best Director bid. I’m going to go ahead and pick Bohemian Rhapsody over a film I’m predicting to triumph in other technical races, “The Favourite.”

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Costume Design

The competition: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Mary Zophres), Black Panther (Ruth E. Carter), The Favourite (Sandy Powell), Mary Poppins Returns (Sandy Powell), Mary Queen of Scots (Alexandra Byrne)

Previous winners: Phantom Thread, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Great Gatsby, Anna Karenina, The Artist
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Zophres was previously nominated in 2010 for “True Grit” and in 2016 for “La La Land.” Carter was nominated in 1992 for “Malcolm X” and in 1997 for “Amistad.” Byrne was nominated in 1996 for “Hamlet,” in 1998 for “Elizabeth,” in 2004 for “Finding Neverland,” and in 2007 for “Elizabeth: The Golden Age,” her only win. This is the third time that Powell has earned two nominations in a single year, first in 1998 when she won for “Shakespeare in Love” in addition to a bid for “Velvet Goldmine,” and then in 2015 when she contended for “Carol” and “Cinderella.” She won for “The Aviator” in 2004 and “The Young Victoria” in 2009, with eight additional nominations. All but “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” contend for the Costume Designers Guild prizes for period or sci-fi/fantasy films, which will be handed out next week. Four times in the past decade, this award went to a Best Picture nominee.

Who should win: Though I didn’t like the film, I can appreciate the top-notch costuming in all the vignettes of “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.” The wardrobe in “Mary Queen of Scots” is one of its strongest and most vibrant elements. “Mary Poppins Returns” owes much of its magic to the way that its characters are outfitted. It’s a hard pick between “The Favourite” and “Black Panther,” two extraordinarily different films, and I’d be happy with either being rewarded.
Who will win: This is extremely competitive. My money is on The Favourite though it could honestly be any of them.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Production Design

The competition: Black Panther (Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart), The Favourite (Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton), First Man (Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas), Mary Poppins Returns (John Myhre and Gordon Sim), Roma (Eugene Caballero and Bárbara Enrı́quez)

Previous winners: The Shape of Water, La La Land, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Great Gatsby, Lincoln, Hugo
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Hart was nominated in 1997 for “L.A. Confidential” and 1998 for “Pleasantville.” This is the fourth nomination for Crowley and his first for a film not directed by Christopher Nolan after bids for “The Prestige,” “The Dark Knight,” “Interstellar,” and “Dunkirk.” Myhre has five previous nominations, including wins for “Chicago” in 2002 and “Memoirs of a Geisha” in 2005. Sim also shares that win for “Chicago” in addition to a nomination for “Nine.” Caballero won in 2006 for “Pan’s Labyrinth,” his only previous bid. This is the first nomination for all other nominees. All five of these films were nominated by the Art Directors Guild, where “Black Panther” triumphed in the fantasy category and “The Favourite” took the period award in addition to the BAFTA. Eight times in the past decade, this award went to a Best Picture nominee, which neither “First Man” nor “Mary Poppins Returns” are.

Who should win: These films are all visually astounding in completely different ways. “Roma” is starkly portrayed, which helps its effectiveness, while “First Man” is enhanced so that its scenery feels real. “Mary Poppins Returns” is colorful and vibrant. “The Favourite” is striking and vivid, though I’d probably choose “Black Panther” for its creation of a stunning nation.
Who will win: It might be either “Black Panther” or “Mary Poppins Returns,” but I think that the energy and enthusiasm for The Favourite will lead to its victory.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Cinematography

The competition: Cold War (Łukasz Żal), The Favourite (Robbie Ryan), Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel), Roma (Alfonso Cuarón), A Star is Born (Matthew Libatique)

Previous winners: Blade Runner 2049, La La Land, The Revenant, Birdman, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: This is the sixth nomination for Deschanel, who was last nominated in 2004 for “The Passion of the Christ.” This is Cuarón’s first bid in this category, but, in addition to a 2013 win for directing “Gravity,” he also contends for directing, writing, and producing his film this year. Libatique was previously nominated for “Black Swan” in 2010. This is the first nomination for Zal and Ryan. The last time three foreign-language films were honored here was in 2004, and foreign films have won this award before, with “Pan’s Labyrinth” and “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” being the most recent ones to do so. Only “Never Look Away” is not nominated for the ASC Award, which went to “Cold War.” Since the ASC has existed, its winner has only gone on to win the Oscar fourteen out of thirty-two times, and six times in the past decade. The BAFTA was awarded to “Roma.” A Best Picture nominee has won this award every year over the past decade except for last year, which may dilute the chances for “Cold War” and “Never Look Away.” The last black-and-white film to win this award was “Schindler’s List” in 1993, with “Cold War” and “Roma” looking to update that statistic this year.

Who should win: These are all formidable selections. Both “Cold War” and “Roma” were exceptionally-shot, seeming like they were in color despite its absence. “A Star is Born” had a look to it that made the story feel even more personal. “Never Look Away” is a fantastic choice, framing its lengthy narrative vividly. My favorite is, in fact, “The Favourite,” an enthralling tale brought even more to life thanks to its focused lensing.
Who will win: I think it’s a competition between Roma and “The Favourite” with “Cold War” coming up as a potential spoiler, and I’ll give the edge to the first one with minimal confidence.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

The competition: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel and Ethan Coen), BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott), Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty), If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins), A Star is Born (Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters and Eric Roth)

Previous winners: Call Me By Your Name, Moonlight, The Big Short, The Imitation Game, 12 Years a Slave, Argo, The Descendants
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: This is the sixth screenplay bid for the Coen Brothers, who won writing prizes for “Fargo” and “No Country for Old Men” in addition to a directing win for the latter. Lee was nominated for his screenplay for “Do the Right Thing” in 1989, and also contends this year for directing and producing his film. Jenkins won this award in 2016 for “Moonlight” in addition to a directing bid for that film. This is Cooper’s first writing nomination, and he’s also up for acting (his fourth time) and producing (his second) this year. Roth won this award in 1994 for “Forrest Gump” and he has been nominated here three times since. This is the first nomination for all the other writers. The last film to win this award without a Best Picture nod was “Gods and Monsters” in 1998, which may change this year since only “BlacKkKlansman,” which won the corresponding BAFTA, and “A Star is Born” are up for the top award. Only “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” isn’t nominated for a WGA Award. “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” and “If Beale Street Could Talk” were both nominated for the USC Scripter Award, which went to “Leave No Trace.”
Who should win: I loved the first segment of “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” but found everything after that less than impressive. “A Star is Born” was a good film, but I wouldn’t cite its screenplay as its strongest element. I wasn’t as fond of “BlacKkKlansman” as most, but I can appreciate its quality. “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” was entertaining and solid. My choice would be “If Beale Street Could Talk,” a wondrous and rich film with superb dialogue.
Who will win: I’d like to think that If Beale Street Could Talk wins this just as easily as “Call Me By Your Name” did last year without momentum in other categories. Watch out for “BlacKkKlansman” or “A Star is Born” to earn some love here and potentially knock it out.