Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Cinematography

I’m offering winner predictions in all categories for the Oscars as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Cinematography.

Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

I’m offering predictions in all categories for the Oscar nominations as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Cinematography.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Cinematography

The competition: Dune (Greig Fraser), Nightmare Alley (Dan Laustsen), The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner), The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel), West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski)

Previous winners: Mank, 1917, Blade Runner 2049, La La Land, The Revenant, Birdman
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: This is the seventh nomination for Kaminski, and his sixth for a collaboration with director Steven Spielberg. He won for “Schindler’s List” and “Saving Private Ryan,” and received additional bids for “Amistad,” “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” “War Horse,” and “Lincoln.” This is the sixth nomination for Delbonnel, who was nominated for “Amélie,” “A Very Long Engagement,” “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince,” “Inside Llewyn Davis,” and “Darkest Hour.” Fraser and Laustsen have both been nominated once before, for “Lion” and “The Shape of Water,” respectively, and this is the first nomination for Wegner. A Best Picture nominee has won this award every year over the past decade except for in 2017 – “The Tragedy of Macbeth” is the only film not up for the top prize. If “Nightmare Alley” or “The Tragedy of Macbeth” won, they would become the second consecutive black-and-white film to win here. “Dune” won the American Society of Cinematographers Award and the BAFTA.
Who should win: This is a great list. I think I would pick “Dune” or “Belfast.”
Who will win: I think Dune wins, but this is a competitive category.

Oscar Nominees: Best Cinematography

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story

This isn’t a shock. I had thought that the great work on “Belfast” (watch my interview with Haris Zambarloukos) would translate from the American Society of Cinematographers list while Nightmare Alley would fall out in favor of West Side Story, but both of the latter films made the list. This is exceptional work all throughout this category, with Dune, The Power of the Dog, and The Tragedy of Macbeth all excellent choices. I was fortunate to see all five of these films in a theater, though I think they would work well on a smaller screen too.

My current bet to win: I think it’s going to Dune, but it could be any of these.

Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7

This year’s locks: Dune, The Power of the Dog

Very likely: The Tragedy of Macbeth

Possible: West Side Story, Belfast, Nightmare Alley, Passing

Unlikely: Spencer, Titane, No Time to Die

The rundown: It’s not typically wise to predict the exact lineup of the American Society of Cinematographers list since they don’t match 5/5 all that often. It would be unimaginable for Dune or The Power of the Dog to miss here, and even if its overall Oscar haul is very up in the air, The Tragedy of Macbeth feels like a good bet too. The question is whether ASC mention Belfast (check out my interview with cinematographer Haris Zambarloukos) gets another slot or if other black-and-white contenders, namely Passing, are also included. I’m opting to leave Nightmare Alley, a very deserving choice, off in favor of another film that I think will get in despite its ASC miss, West Side Story. Of the Spotlight choices from the ASC, Titane seems distinctly possible as a wild pick, but I don’t think it’s likely. Spencer is probably a better bet, and it’s worth noting that “Skyfall” did merit a mention in this category a decade ago, and No Time to Die showed up on a whopping five Oscar shortlists, suggesting that it’s a popular film with voters.

For your consideration: It could probably still happen, but another black-and-white film wowed me with its lensing, C’mon C’mon.

Forecasted winner: I imagine this goes to Dune over “The Power of the Dog.”

AFT Awards: Best Cinematography

This is the seventh category of the 14th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. I’m drawing only from films that were either released or playing at a film festival in the 2020 calendar year. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Runners-up:
Mank
Charm City Kings
Dear Comrades
The 40-Year-Old Version
Tenet

The winner:
Nomadland (Joshua James Richards) tapped into the perspective of its main character, capturing the beauty around her and conveying it beautifully to the camera.

Other nominees:
News of the World (Dariusz Wolski)
I Carry You with Me (Juan Pablo Ramírez)
The Killing of Two Lovers (Oscar Ignacio Jimenez)
Wendy (Sturla Brandth Grøvlen)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Cinematography

The competition: Judas and the Black Messiah (Sean Bobbitt), Mank (Erik Messerschmidt), News of the World (Dariusz Wolski), Nomadland (Joshua James Richards), The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Phedon Papamichael)

Previous winners: 1917, Blade Runner 2049, La La Land, The Revenant, Birdman, Gravity
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: This is the first nomination for everyone but Papamichael, who was previously here for “Nebraska” in 2013. Since the ASC has existed, its winner has only gone on to win the Oscar fifteen out of thirty-four times, and six times in the past decade. “The Trial of the Chicago 7” was the only film not nominated by BAFTA, where “Nomadland” won, while “Judas and the Black Messiah” wasn’t in contention at the ASC Awards, where “Mank” unexpectedly triumphed. A Best Picture nominee has won this award every year over the past decade except for in 2017.

 
Who should win: I’d vote for “Nomadland” or “News of the World.”
Who will win: While it’s tempting to pick “Mank” given its ASC win and nominations-leader status, I think Nomadland will ultimately prevail here.

Oscar Nominees: Best Cinematography

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7

The big surge that came here was for Judas and the Black Messiah, an admittedly very well-shot film that bumped ASC nominee “Cherry” and my predicted pick of “Tenet.” This bunch is visually incredible, and I’m happy to see it. The Trial of the Chicago 7 masters its court and protest scenes, Mank does marvelous black-and-white, and there’s no topping the gorgeous landscapes and sunsets in both News of the World and Nomadland. Quite a category.

My current bet to win: I think it’s Nomadland.

Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: The Irishman, Joker, The Lighthouse, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

This year’s locks: Nomadland, Mank, News of the World

Possible: Tenet, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Minari, Da 5 Bloods,

Unlikely: Judas and the Black Messiah, First Cow, Dear Comrades, The Mauritanian

The rundown: I got a perfect score on this category last year – can I repeat that? The American Society of Cinematographers, which announced its picks today, is typically the best framework for predicting this list, matching entirely three years ago and four for five the past two years. Its left-field pick was Cherry, which is distinctly possible but I would expect to be swapped for Tenet, which was cited by the Critics Choice Association. Nomadland, Mank, and News of the World seem safe, while The Trial of the Chicago 7 may be more precarious. The ASC spotlight category produced an Oscar nominee last year, “The Lighthouse,” and theoretically could do the same this time for Dear Comrades. Likelier possibilities include Minari, Da 5 Bloods, or First Cow, all Critics Choice picks, or BAFTA nominees Judas and the Black Messiah or The Mauritanian.

For your consideration: The magical world of Wendy should be rewarded for its wondrous camerawork.

Forecasted winner: This feels like Nomadland to me.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Cinematography

The competition: The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto), Joker (Lawrence Sher), The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke), 1917 (Roger Deakins), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)

Previous winners: Blade Runner 2049, La La Land, The Revenant, Birdman, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo
My winner: 1917
The facts: This is the fifteenth nomination for Deakins, who finally won on his most recent try for “Blade Runner 2049” in 2017. This is the tenth nomination for Richardson, who won previously for “JFK” in 1991, “The Aviator” in 2004, and “Hugo” in 2011. Prieto was nominated in 2005 for “Brokeback Mountain” and in 2016 for “Silence.” This is the first nomination for both Blaschke and Sher. Since the ASC has existed, its winner has only gone on to win the Oscar fourteen out of thirty-three times, and five times in the past decade. The BAFTA and the ASC were both awarded to “1917,” and the Spotlight Award from the ASC went to “The Lighthouse.” A Best Picture nominee has won this award every year over the past decade except for in 2017. The last black-and-white film to win this award was last year’s “Roma.”

Who should win: “1917” is the best of these, but they’re all extremely well-shot.
Who will win: This is going to 1917.

AFT Awards: Best Cinematography

This is the seventh category of the 13th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Runners-up:
Joker, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

The winner:
1917 was a completely visceral experience, one that demanded the fierce attention of the viewer because of its camera’s sharp and unyielding focus.

Other nominees:
Ms. Purple
A Hidden Life
The Beach Bum
The Last Black Man in San Francisco

Oscar Nominees: Best Cinematography

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Come back later this week!
The nominees: The Irishman, Joker, The Lighthouse, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

I would have earned a perfect score in this race had I not decided to swap out The Irishman for “Portrait of a Lady on Fire,” which was entirely shut out. This list here is the same as the ASC lineup, with only “Ford v Ferrari” subbed out for The Lighthouse, earning its only bid. At least that’s a small degree of creative thinking. That said, I can appreciate the visual qualities of Joker, 1917, and even a film I continue to find wildly overrated, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

My current bet to win: It’s a competitive category, but I think 1917 is out front.

Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Cold War, The Favourite, Never Look Away, Roma, A Star is Born

This year’s locks: 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Very likely: The Irishman, Joker

Possible: The Lighthouse, Ford v Ferrari, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Parasite, Little Women, Jojo Rabbit

The rundown: The American Society of Cinematographers list is the best framework for predicting this list, matching entirely two years ago and four for five last year. 1917 is a sure thing, as is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I imagine that both The Irishman and Joker are safe too, though I’m less certain about the fifth nominee, Ford v Ferrari, which has been performing somewhat inconsistently across awards bodies this season but could easily merit a place here on the Oscar ballot. The ASC also includes a spotlight category with three nominees. While I’d be shocked if either independent darling Honey Boy or Colombia’s International Feature submission Monos was cited, The Lighthouse seems like a far more probable contender. Given that last year featured three foreign films nominated here, I’d expect some passion for Portrait of a Lady on Fire and Parasite, but I don’t know that it will happen. Little Women and Jojo Rabbit are also possible, but this category feels more firmed up.

One possible crazy scenario: A film cited on both the Documentary and International Feature shortlists, Honeyland, becomes the first documentary honored in this race.

Forecasted winner: This seems set to go to 1917.

AFT Awards: Best Cinematography

This is the seventh category of the 12th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Runners-up:
The Rider, First Man, The Old Man and the Gun, Breath, If Beale Street Could Talk, Widows, A Boy. A Girl. A Dream., Mid90s

The winner:
American Animals (Ole Bratt Birkeland) lensed a dark story within a comedic frame, entirely focused on the events at hand with sharp camerawork and a purposeful eye.

Other nominees:
Cold War (Lukasz Zal)
Disobedience (Danny Cohen)
Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Cinematography

The competition: Cold War (Łukasz Żal), The Favourite (Robbie Ryan), Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel), Roma (Alfonso Cuarón), A Star is Born (Matthew Libatique)

Previous winners: Blade Runner 2049, La La Land, The Revenant, Birdman, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: This is the sixth nomination for Deschanel, who was last nominated in 2004 for “The Passion of the Christ.” This is Cuarón’s first bid in this category, but, in addition to a 2013 win for directing “Gravity,” he also contends for directing, writing, and producing his film this year. Libatique was previously nominated for “Black Swan” in 2010. This is the first nomination for Zal and Ryan. The last time three foreign-language films were honored here was in 2004, and foreign films have won this award before, with “Pan’s Labyrinth” and “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” being the most recent ones to do so. Only “Never Look Away” is not nominated for the ASC Award, which went to “Cold War.” Since the ASC has existed, its winner has only gone on to win the Oscar fourteen out of thirty-two times, and six times in the past decade. The BAFTA was awarded to “Roma.” A Best Picture nominee has won this award every year over the past decade except for last year, which may dilute the chances for “Cold War” and “Never Look Away.” The last black-and-white film to win this award was “Schindler’s List” in 1993, with “Cold War” and “Roma” looking to update that statistic this year.

Who should win: These are all formidable selections. Both “Cold War” and “Roma” were exceptionally-shot, seeming like they were in color despite its absence. “A Star is Born” had a look to it that made the story feel even more personal. “Never Look Away” is a fantastic choice, framing its lengthy narrative vividly. My favorite is, in fact, “The Favourite,” an enthralling tale brought even more to life thanks to its focused lensing.
Who will win: I think it’s a competition between Roma and “The Favourite” with “Cold War” coming up as a potential spoiler, and I’ll give the edge to the first one with minimal confidence.

Oscar Nominees: Best Cinematography

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: Cold War, The Favourite, Never Look Away, Roma, A Star is Born

I was just going through my own contenders yesterday in preparation for my own AFT Awards and almost choose Never Look Away, which also scored a bid for Best Foreign Film, as a selection in this category, only to decide that it’s technically a 2019 film, though maybe its very limited release at the end of November was the extent of its showing in the United States. I’m actually all for its inclusion since the visual style in this more-than-three-hour film was mesmerizing. It’s also got to be a historical moment that three foreign films are honored in this category, though 2004 technically had that if you count “The Passion of the Christ.” Roma and Cold War, both of which did very well, were more expected here, joined by the very popular The Favourite, which didn’t miss any expected technical races, and A Star is Born, which definitely did. I thought “Black Panther” would make the cut here, and I’m sad that this was just the first of many “If Beale Street Could Talk” omissions.

My current bet to win: With these nominees, I still think Roma can win, but “The Favourite” may just overtake it.

Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 22nd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Mudbound, The Shape of Water

My choices: Coming in February!

This year’s locks: Roma, The Favourite

Very likely: First Man

Possible: Cold War, Black Panther, A Star is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk

Unlikely: The Rider, A Quiet Place, Mary Poppins Returns

The rundown: The American Society of Cinematographers list is the best framework for predicting this list, matching entirely last year. Roma is safe, and The Favourite should be too. For however inconsistently First Man has been performing in the top races, it’s been rewarded for its technical elements almost universally. Likely Best Foreign Film nominee Cold War is a good bet considering “Ida” was nominated four years ago. As for the fifth nominee, A Star is Born is the likely choice, though I’m going to predict that Black Panther will provide a repeat nomination for last year’s first-ever female nominee, Rachel Morrison. I wish If Beale Street Could Talk, which missed with a number of guilds including ASC, would be able to get in here, but I’m losing faith. I’d also The Rider earned a spotlight award from ASC and this would make sense as a place for the much-loved film to be recognized. Other possibilities include A Quiet Place and Mary Poppins Returns, but neither is likely to bump the other contenders.

One possible crazy scenario: A film that some seem to love but doesn’t seem likely to perform well gets recognized for its visual presentation: the sci-fi mystery Annihilation.

Forecasted winner: I don’t see it being anything other than Roma.

AFT Awards: Best Cinematography

This is the seventh category of the 11th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Runners-up:
Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, In Between, Ingrid Goes West, Land of Mine, Logan, Mudbound, Song to Song, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Sweet Virginia, The Space Between Us, Thoroughbreds, Walking Out, Wonderstruck

The winner:
Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins) presented a dark but beautiful vision of a bleak future, so incredibly captured that its lensing drove its story and the way in which its characters – both human and artificial – interacted.

Other nominees:
The Florida Project (Alexis Zabe)
The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)
Dunkirk (Hoyte Van Hoytema)
Battle of the Sexes (Linus Sandgren)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Cinematography

The competition: Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins), Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel), Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema), Mudbound (Rachel Morrison), The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)

Previous winners: La La Land, The Revenant, Birdman, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo, Inception
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Deakins is the most-nominated cinematographer not to have won, with thirteen previous bids, most recently in 2015 for “Sicario.” Delbonnel has four previous nominations, last up for “Inside Llewyn Davis” in 2013. The other three are all first-time nominees, and Morrison makes history as the first woman ever nominated in this category. Deakins took home his fourth ASC Award either this month, though his past three ASC wins have all translated to Oscar losses. Since the ASC has existed, its winner has only gone on to win the Oscar thirteen out of thirty-two times, and five times in the past decade. “Blade Runner 2049” took the BAFTA, where all but “Mudbound” were nominated. A Best Picture nominee has won this award every year over the past decade, which doesn’t bode well for “Blade Runner 2049” and “Mudbound.”
Who should win: I’m not sure why exactly “Mudbound” is here since its aesthetics weren’t all that memorable to me. “Darkest Hour” amplified its story – and its lead character – with the way that it was filmed. “Dunkirk” jumped between three equally dazzling settings and would certainly be an unobjectionable choice. “The Shape of Water” was gorgeous and stylized in the way that it was presented, but I would go with “Blade Runner 2049” for its astonishing visual portrait of the future.
Who will win: “Dunkirk” and “The Shape of Water” will likely be rewarded in other technical categories, but that strengthens rather than weakens their chances here. I think “Darkest Hour” can be safely counted out, but watch out for Morrison to become the first woman nominated and the first woman to be win for “Mudbound.” I’d say that “The Shape of Water” has the best chance of knocking out what I hope and believe will be the winner, Blade Runner 2049.

Oscar Nominees: Best Cinematography

My predictions: 4/5, picking “Call Me By Your Name” over “Mudbound”
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Mudbound, The Shape of Water

This is the exact American Society of Cinematographers lineup, with my predicted “Call Me By Your Name,” which I think very much deserved to be here, not showing up. I’ll all for “Darkest Hour” joining “Dunkirk” and “The Shape of Water,” and I can see why “Mudbound” got votes. I haven’t seen Blade Runner 2049 yet, but given the impressive five bids it earned, I know that it’s got to be next on my list.

My current bet to win: I think The Shape of Water will win but it could be any of these.