Showing posts with label Best Actor in a Supporting Role. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Best Actor in a Supporting Role. Show all posts

Saturday, January 21, 2023

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

I’m offering predictions in all categories for the Oscar nominations as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Supporting Actor.

Monday, March 21, 2022

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Ciarán Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

Previous winners: Daniel Kaluuya, Brad Pitt, Mahershala Ali, Sam Rockwell, Mahershala Ali, Mark Rylance, J.K. Simmons
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: Only one of these men has been nominated for an Oscar before, and that’s Simmons, who won in 2014 for “Whiplash.” He’s also the only one whose film isn’t up for Best Picture. While Smit-McPhee won most critics’ prizes and the Golden Globe, Kotsur has been reliably cleaning up since then. Two actors from one film have been nominated together previously, including three times in the past four years, leading to two victories from that film.
Who should win: Kotsur
Who will win: It’s possible that Smit-McPhee could still muster voters, but Kotsur is a very popular choice and I don’t think he’s going to lose.

Tuesday, February 22, 2022

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar), Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Jared Leto (House of Gucci), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

For your information: Though he has three past ensemble nominations and two wins – for “Shakespeare in Love” and “Argo” – this is his first individual bid. Cooper has two previous individual nominations, for “Silver Linings Playbook” and “A Star is Born.” Leto was nominated for this prize last year for “The Little Things” and won in 2013 for “Dallas Buyers Club.” This is the first nomination for both Kotsur and Smit-McPhee, who are also the only two from this category who got nominated for Oscars. Kotsur and Leto are also nominated as part of their ensembles. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.

Who should win? Kotsur is my clear choice but I also liked Affleck’s work.

Who will win? It’s possible that Kotsur could swing ahead here with his film nominated in the ensemble category, but I think that Smit-McPhee remains the frontrunner.

Tuesday, February 8, 2022

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Ciarán Hinds, Troy Kotsur, Jesse Plemons, J.K. Simmons, Kodi Smit-McPhee

I’m disappointed to see that two actors I really liked this year in buzzy films, Mike Faist and Jamie Dornan, couldn’t make the cut. It seems that Ciarán Hinds (Belfast) benefited from voters preferring the older generation in his film, while J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) earned a mildly unexpected bid for a performance that was honestly quite entertaining. Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog) scored here after a BAFTA nod and not too much else this awards season, joining his costar and continued frontrunner Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog). I’m thrilled that Troy Kotsur (CODA) is here, and I just wish that his film would have made more of a splash in other categories since it remains my favorite of the year. And we have no Jared Leto or Ben Affleck despite precursor enthusiasm.

My current bet to win: Even with his costar now in the mix, Smit-McPhee should remain the frontrunner, unless Kotsur can muster enough support to upset.

Saturday, February 5, 2022

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.


Last year’s nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen, Daniel Kaluuya, Leslie Odom Jr., Paul Raci, Lakeith Stanfield

This year’s locks: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Troy Kotsur

Very likely: Ciarán Hinds

Possible: Jamie Dornan, Mike Faist, Jared Leto, Bradley Cooper, Ben Affleck, Jesse Plemons

Unlikely: J.K. Simmons, Woody Norman

The rundown: Last year, this category brought us the biggest shock with the inclusion of Stanfield, who no one considered supporting and wasn’t remotely expected. This year, that doesn’t seem as likely to happen, but it’s not clear who the frontrunners are with a few exceptions. Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) and Troy Kotsur have been consistent performers across the board. Ciarán Hinds (Belfast) missed with SAG but seems popular, and while I would have hoped that his more prominent costar Jamie Dornan (Belfast) would also get in, I’m not so sure. That leaves just one spot. Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) scored mentions from both the Golden Globes and SAG, but his film is otherwise not in the awards conversation. Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) and Jared Leto (House of Gucci) were cited by SAG, but may not get in due to the size of the role and some serious overacting, respectively. While J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos), a past winner in this category, is a distinct possibility, I’m looking instead to two other late-breaking players in popular films who just scored BAFTA bids: Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog) and Mike Faist (West Side Story).

For your consideration: I would be elated if Woody Norman (C’mon C’mon) got recognized like he did from BAFTA, but most of the attention for him otherwise has been as a young actor and his film just hasn’t shown up in the way it should with awards bodies.

Forecasted winner: I don’t see anyone defeating Smit-McPhee.

Wednesday, January 12, 2022

SAG Nominees: Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Ciarán Hinds (Belfast), Jamie Dornan (Belfast)

It’s strange to see the two “Belfast” boys snubbed, especially since the film made it into the ensemble race, where I had expected it to be snubbed. Though his film – which is one of my favorites of the year – isn’t cited elsewhere, Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) got in for a very minor albeit admittedly entertaining role. Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) also repeated his Golden Globe mention here, which is nice. Jared Leto (House of Gucci) joins the race for an over-the-top performance SAG voters obviously loved since they cited his ensemble too. I’m very happy that Troy Kotsur (CODA) didn’t get omitted, and he joins the frontrunner, Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog).

Who will win? I think Smit-McPhee is far enough ahead to win without a problem.

Saturday, January 8, 2022

SAG Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Last year’s nominees: Sacha Baron Cohene (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Jared Leto (The Little Things), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)

Looking at critics’ prizes and nominations lists, it seems like four men are probably set here: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog), Ciarán Hinds (Belfast), Jamie Dornan (Belfast), and Troy Kotsur (CODA). It’s not likely that the Golden Globes choice for the fifth slot, Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) will repeat here, but a questionable nominee from last year, Jared Leto (House of Gucci) could return instead. Leto was selected along with J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) by the Critics Choice Association. Other possibilities include Mike Faist (West Side Story), Jason Isaacs (Mass), or Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), or maybe someone completely surprising.

Current predictions:
Jamie Dornan (Belfast)
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jared Leto (House of Gucci)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

Monday, April 26, 2021

AFT Awards: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

This is the third category of the 14th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. I’m drawing only from films that were either released or playing at a film festival in the 2020 calendar year. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them.. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Arliss Howard (Mank), Bill Burr (The King of Staten Island), Bill Murray (On the Rocks), Charles Dance (Mank), Jens Albinus (My Little Sister), Kim Rossi Stuart (The Best Years)

Runners-up:
Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami)
Eddie Redmayne (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

The winner:
Alan Kim (Minari) was the heart of his movie, affectionately conveying his youthful experience through curiosity, rebellion, and heartwarming interactions with his family members.

Other nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Orion Lee (First Cow)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Colman Domingo (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Wednesday, April 7, 2021

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Previous winners: Brad Pitt, Mahershala Ali, Sam Rockwell, Mahershala Ali, Mark Rylance, J.K. Simmons, Jared Leto
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: Only one of these men has been nominated for an acting Oscar before, and that’s Kaluuya, who contended in 2017 for “Get Out.” Cohen was nominated in 2006 for writing the screenplay to “Borat” and is up again this year for the script for “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.” Odom is also nominated this year for the song “Speak Now” from his film. Both Raci and Stanfield are here after missing out on many and all, respectively, precursors. All but Odom have their films nominated for Best Picture. Multiple nominees from one film happen occasionally, including last year for “The Irishman,” and the second most recent case – 2017 – resulted in a win for one of them. Kaluuya has won the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice Award. The only actor to win those three prizes and then lose this award was Eddie Murphy in 2006 for “Dreamgirls,” who ultimately lost to Alan Arkin for “Little Miss Sunshine.”
Who should win: This is a great list even if Stanfield really doesn’t belong in this category. I’d choose Kaluuya, Cohen, or Odom.
Who will win: Even with his unexpected internal competition, Kaluuya shouldn’t have any trouble winning.

Monday, March 29, 2021

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Sacha Baron Cohen’s inflammatory activist (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Chadwick Boseman’s young soldier (Da 5 Bloods), Daniel Kaluuya’s energizing organizer (Judas and the Black Messiah), Jared Leto’s murder suspect (The Little Things), and Leslie Odom Jr.’s opinionated singer (One Night in Miami).

For your information: Baron Cohen was nominated in 2012 as part of the “Les Miserables” ensemble. The late Boseman won an ensemble prize for “Black Panther” in 2018 and makes history this year as the first performer to earn two individual nominations and two ensemble nominations, thanks to his role in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” in one year. Kaluuya won an ensemble prize in 2018 for “Black Panther” after contending the previous year both individually and as part of the “Get Out” cast. Leto won this prize in 2013 for “Dallas Buyers Club” and was also nominated as part of its ensemble. This is the first nomination for Odom. Baron Cohen, Boseman, and Odom are also nominated as part of their ensembles. Baron Cohen, Kaluuya, and Odom are all nominated for Oscars for these roles. Kaluuya won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.

Who should win? Baron Cohen, Kaluuya, and Odom were all terrific.

Who will win? I think that Kaluuya is set to win this.

Monday, March 15, 2021

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 4/5, picking Chadwick Boseman over Stanfield
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen, Daniel Kaluuya, Leslie Odom Jr., Paul Raci, Lakeith Stanfield

I’m not usually so bothered by category fraud since it happens often and, if a performance is good, it’s great to see it honored in any race. The argument could certainly be made – and has been – that the spectacular Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) is the lead of his film. If he’s not, and he’s the supporting player, there’s no way that the other character from the film’s title, Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah) is somehow also supporting. I like Stanfield and he is good in the film, but his inclusion here doesn’t make any sense, especially given the wealth of true supporting characters even within the ensemble of “The Trial of the Chicago 7” alone. He didn’t really bump anyone out since Boseman got nominated for his more notable performance in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” though I was really hoping that Alan S. Kim would be here for “Minari.” The big get was Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), who made it through despite snubs from the Golden Globes and SAG. Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) are welcome representatives of their superb ensembles.

My current bet to win: Even with a costar in the mix, I think Kaluuya is out front.

Sunday, March 7, 2021

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Tom Hanks, Anthony Hopkins, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Brad Pritt

This year’s locks: Daniel Kaluuya, Sacha Baron Cohen

Very likely: Leslie Odom Jr., Chadwick Boseman

Possible: Paul Raci, Bill Murray, Jared Leto, Bo Burnham, David Strathairn

Unlikely: Aldis Hodge, Colman Domingo, Glynn Turman, Orion Lee, Mark Rylance, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Frank Langella, Alan S. Kim

The rundown: This race isn’t so set, mainly because there are any number of contenders from a few popular films who could throw the whole thing off by claiming a few extra spots. The frontrunner is alone in his film, and that’s Golden Globe winner Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah). Next up should be Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), who should be secure even if his costars, like Mark Rylance, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, or Frank Langella also secure enough votes. Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) feels safe, and it’s feasible that his costar Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami) could join him if the movie goes over well with Oscar voters. The late Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) feels like a likely double nominee, but it’s hard to know for sure how his film will go over after a Globe shutout. Looking at the Globes and SAG, Jared Leto (The Little Things) might score the fifth slot, but that puzzling inclusion was isolated to those two groups, so it’s far from a sure thing. The best performer with critics was Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), who could benefit from a strong showing for his film, while Bill Murray (On the Rocks), a Globe pick, isn’t going to have that same project support. Positive buzz for their films could propel Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) or David Strathairn (Nomadland) to a slot, while that’s less likely to work for Colman Domingo (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) and Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). If Academy enthusiasm matches early precursor energy, Orion Lee (First Cow) could end up as a great indie pick.

For your consideration: He’s young but so fantastic, and Alan S. Kim (Minari) would be a great choice to join his costars Steven Yeun and Yuh-Jung Youn, who are looking good for nominations.

Forecasted winner: Unless someone else emerges as a rival frontrunner, Kaluuya will be the winner.

Thursday, February 4, 2021

SAG Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Bill Murray (On the Rocks), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

I know that I and I’d assume most other people thought that the inclusion of Jared Leto (The Little Things) in yesterday’s list of Golden Globe nominees was a one-time oddity, but here he is again, for a performance that just isn’t all that great. It’s not all that unexpected but still disappointing to see the most prominent critics’ honoree, Raci, left off by this group, joining a list of four expected nominees. The new addition that wasn’t on the Globe list is Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods), who posthumously received four nominations today for this and his lead role in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” as well as his part in their ensembles. Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) is here as the lone representative for his film, while Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) are here along with their ensembles.

Who will win? I see this going to Odom.

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

SAG Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Last year’s nominees: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

I’m making predictions for SAG, which will announce its picks on Thursday, February 4th, just after the Golden Globe nominations being unveiled on Wednesday, though I may revise them then if there are some big surprises. The real question here is how many actors from the same two films will be nominated. Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) is probably ahead of castmates like Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Eddie Redmayne (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7), and Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7). Similarly, Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) has a likely leg up on Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami). Beyond those two films, look for Bill Murray (On the Rocks), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), David Strathairn (Nomadland), and potential double nominee Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods).

Current predictions:
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Bill Murray (On the Rocks)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)

Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role


The competition: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Previous winners: Mahershala Ali, Sam Rockwell, Mahershala Ali, Mark Rylance, J.K. Simmons, Jared Leto, Christoph Waltz
My winner: Jonathan Majors (The Last Black Man in San Francisco)
The facts: Every one of these men except for Pitt won an Oscar in the 1990s. Hanks triumphed in 1993 for “Philadelphia” and in 1994 for “Forrest Gump,” and has also been nominated for “Big” in 1998, “Saving Private Ryan” in 1998, and “Cast Away” in 2000. After being snubbed for headlining several Best Pictures nominees in the past decade, he’s now the lone nominee from his film. Hopkins, who won in 1991 for “The Silence of the Lambs” and was nominated again in 1993 for “The Remains of the Day,” in 1995 for “Nixon,” and in 1997 for “Amistad,” is joined by his costar and screenplay. Pacino won on his most recent try in 1992 for “Scent of a Woman” after career bids in 1972 for “The Godfather,” 1973 for “Serpico,” 1974 for “The Godfather Part III,” 1975 for “Dog Day Afternoon,” 1979 for “And Justice for All,” 1990 for “Dick Tracy,” and 1992 for “Glengarry Glen Ross.” Pesci won in 1990 for “Goodfellas” and was nominated in 1980 for “Raging Bull.” Pitt, who has won every precursors, was nominated in 1995 for “12 Monkeys,” in 2008 for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” and in 2011 for “Moneyball.” Though he’s never won an acting Oscar, he was a producer on 2013 Best Picture winner “12 Years a Slave.” Multiple nominees from one film happen occasionally, and in the most recent case – 2017 – resulted in a win for one of them.
Who should win: Pesci
Who will win: It’s going to be a category made up entirely of winners thanks to the assured victory for Pitt.

Friday, January 17, 2020

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role


The competition: Jamie Foxx’s death row inmate (Just Mercy), Tom Hanks’ beloved television icon (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Al Pacino’s Jimmy Hoffa (The Irishman), Joe Pesci’s mob boss (The Irishman), and Brad Pitt’s stunt double (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood).

For your information: Foxx won in 2004 for “Ray” and was also nominated that year for “Collateral” and “Redemption: The Stan Tookie Williams Story.” He contended twice for his ensemble work. Hanks won in 1994 for “Forrest Gump” was nominated again in 1998 for “Saving Private Ryan,” in 2000 for “Cast Away,” and in 2013 for “Captain Phillips.” He won in 1995 as part of the “Apollo 13” cast and was nominated two more times in that field. Pacino won two of his three TV bids, in 2003 for “Angels in America” and in 2010 for “You Don’t Know Jack,” receiving a nomination in 2013 for “Phil Spector.” Pitt was nominated in 2008 for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and in 2011 for “Moneyball.” He won as part of the “Inglourious Basterds” ensemble in 2009, receiving four other bids in that category. This is Pesci’s first nomination. Pacino, Pesci, and Pitt are all nominated as part of their ensembles, and Pacino also scored a bid for being in Pitt’s film. Pitt won the Globe and Critics’ Choice Award. Foxx is the only one not nominated for an Oscar. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar. This category has featured double nominees from one film five times, leading to victories for one of them twice.

Who should win? From this list, I’d choose Pesci.

Who will win? I’d say this goes to Pitt.

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

AFT Awards: Best Actor in a Supporting Role


This is the third category of the 13th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them and drawn from a pool of approximately 233 films. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Mark Ruffalo (Avengers: Endgame), Paul Rudd (Avengers: Endgame)

Runners-up:
Samuel L. Jackson (The Banker)
Sam Rockwell (Richard Jewell)
Steven Ogg (The Short History of the Long Road)
Billy Crystal (Standing Up, Falling Down)
Bokeem Woodbine (Queen and Slim)

The winner:
Jonathan Majors (The Last Black Man in San Francisco) approached his character with such precision and magnetic wonder, conveying his unique vision of the world in mesmerizing fashion.

Other nominees:
Aldis Hodge (Clemency)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
James Badge Dale (Mickey and the Bear)
Noah Jupe (Honey Boy)

Monday, January 13, 2020

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role


My predictions: 5/5
My ballot: Come back later this week!
The nominees: Tom Hanks, Anthony Hopkins, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Brad Pitt

This was one of only two races this year in which I achieved a perfect score. For the third category in a row, SAG meant nothing and Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy) was cast aside, as were other potential contenders like Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) and Song Kang-ho (Parasite). We’re left instead with the exact Globe lineup, which is relatively respectable. Globe winner Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) seems set for a win here too, joined by four past Oscar winners who all haven’t been nominated since 2000 or earlier. Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) made the cut even without any representation elsewhere for his film, while Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes) had a bit of support from his costar and screenplay. Despite initial concern that one or both of them might not make it this far, both Al Pacino (The Irishman) and Joe Pesci (The Irishman) made the cut. Not much excitement to report since we’ve seen this list already, but it’s not a bad group at all.

My current bet to win: It looks like Pitt is set for the win.

Monday, January 6, 2020

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor


This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Mahershala Ali, Adam Driver, Sam Elliott, Richard E. Grant, Sam Rockwell

This year’s locks: Brad Pitt

Very likely: Joe Pesci, Al Pacino, Tom Hanks

Possible: Anthony Hopkins, Song Kang Ho, Willem Dafoe, Jamie Foxx

Unlikely: Tracy Letts, Shia LaBeouf, Sam Rockwell

The rundown: Like last year, this category has been probably the least exciting of all the acting races since it’s largely included the same four men and a few others filling the last slot. There’s no question that Golden Globe winner Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) will be nominated, and barring some serious backlash, Joe Pesci (The Irishman) and Al Pacino (The Irishman) should be in too. He’s been snubbed previously, but Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) seems to be set for a nomination. For the fifth slot, I think the most logical pick is Golden Globe nominee Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), while SAG nominee Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy) seems a lot less likely since his film didn’t enter the awards conversation until very late. Many seem to be predicting Song Kang Ho (Parasite) as his film’s standout, similar to Marina de Tavira from “Roma” showing up at the last minute last year, but I’m not so confident in his chances. There are two contenders who would make it three in a row this year, one of them in this category, but Critics Choice nominee Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) will have to once again possibly be the solo nominee from his film and Sam Rockwell (Richard Jewell) doesn’t appear to have great prospects even if his performance is infinitely better and more sizeable than his turn in “Vice.” If the film was performing more steadily, Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari) might have a real shot, and I think it’s a stretch to expect that Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy) can finally earn an Oscar nomination for a highly praised but still small film. Or maybe we’ll get a huge surprise here?

One possible crazy scenario: He was listed on many prognosticators’ lists a while back, but could Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit) actually find himself nominated for playing a young Nazi’s boy imaginary best friend Adolf Hitler?

Forecasted winner: I’m still not entirely convinced that Pitt will win, but I’m not sure who else would at the moment.

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

SAG Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role


My predictions: 4/5, missing Foxx
Who’s missing? Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit), Sam Rockwell (Richard Jewell)

Now here was a great surprise: Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy), a past SAG winner who earned three individual bids fifteen years ago and hasn’t been back on his own since. He is great in the film, and it’s nice to see him earn some buzz. Hopkins missing out isn’t a big deal since SAG didn’t honor his film anywhere else, and he may still manage an Oscar nomination. Though other awards bodies chose one over the other, both Al Pacino (The Irishman) and Joe Pesci (The Irishman) made it in, joining Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), all on his own, and Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), supported by his ensemble and a costar. I’m fine with this list – it’s a good one.

Who will win? I think this actually goes to Pesci.