SAG Nominations Announced

Screen Actors Guild Award nominations have been announced. Check out my breakdown of the nominations over at FilmFactual!

SAG Nominees: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 1/5
Who’s missing? The Power of the Dog, West Side Story, Mass, The Harder They Fall, Being the Ricardos

Yikes. I did worst in this category, naming only one nominee – CODA – which did make the cut, and I’m so happy it did. The rest of the list is a bit more perplexing. I correctly predicted that “The Power of the Dog” would miss out, despite its three individual nominations, while Belfast, which only managed one, did get in. It’s just as puzzling that King Richard scored here since supporting actress Aunjanue Ellis was left off, while Don’t Look Up, which didn’t get any individual bids, also got in, which doesn’t thrill me. The big surprise is House of Gucci, which has two performers nominated and which definitely showcases a lot of acting, however excessive it may be. This is bad news for “Mass” and not a great development for “West Side Story.” It would also have been nice to see a truly ensemble effort like “The Harder They Fall” here.

Who will win? I’m not so sure. I’d love for it to be “CODA” but I’d also be happy with Belfast, which might be the frontrunner now.

SAG Nominees: Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Marlee Matlin (CODA), Ann Dowd (Mass)

The big snub here is Ellis, though Amanda Seyfried bounced back from that omission last year and Regina King even managed to win without it. The beneficiary of the open slot is Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley), which makes me very happy since she was terrific in a film that hasn’t been consistently attracting attention. I had expected Ruth Negga (Passing) to miss here, but now she’s looking stronger for an Oscar nomination, even if her film hasn’t earned much attention. Caitriona Balfe (Belfast) is the only member of her cast to be nominated, and she’s also the only one in this category to have her ensemble cited. Golden Globe winner Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) is the lone representative of her film, while Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) has two of her costars nominated.

Who will win? I think DeBose can win here unless Dunst prevails.

SAG Nominees: Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Ciarán Hinds (Belfast), Jamie Dornan (Belfast)

It’s strange to see the two “Belfast” boys snubbed, especially since the film made it into the ensemble race, where I had expected it to be snubbed. Though his film – which is one of my favorites of the year – isn’t cited elsewhere, Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) got in for a very minor albeit admittedly entertaining role. Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) also repeated his Golden Globe mention here, which is nice. Jared Leto (House of Gucci) joins the race for an over-the-top performance SAG voters obviously loved since they cited his ensemble too. I’m very happy that Troy Kotsur (CODA) didn’t get omitted, and he joins the frontrunner, Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog).

Who will win? I think Smit-McPhee is far enough ahead to win without a problem.

SAG Nominees: Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Kristen Stewart (Spencer), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Tessa Thompson (Passing), Rachel Zegler (West Side Story)

This is the biggest snub of the day and likely the season. Even if she wasn’t going to be the winner, Stewart was expected to be a nominee. The surprise win at the Golden Globes by Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) added a bit of competition to this race, but the absence of Stewart here is a real shock. The beneficiary of the open slot was Jennifer Hudson (Respect), who was originally expected to be a major contender and had dropped off throughout much of the precursors. She joins Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), both here on their own, and Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), who gets an unexpected boost from her film’s inclusion in the ensemble category.

Who will win? With Stewart out of the race, it’s anyone’s guess. I think Gaga might actually win, but it could be Kidman or Colman too.

SAG Nominees: Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), Nicolas Cage (Pig)

This category starts with an unexpected inclusion, a holdover from the Golden Globes that felt far from a sure thing: Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos). I liked him in the film and I’m fine with it, though it does mean that Dinklage didn’t get a boost that he needed for a film that’s flown somewhat under the radar. The rest of the list here is expected, boosting frontrunners Will Smith (King Richard) and Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) and making it look likelier and likelier that Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!) and Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) will join them at the Oscars.

Who will win? This should still go to Smith based on this list.

SAG Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman), Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)

The most surprising omission here is Seyfried, who most had thought would be a sure thing, especially given the strong performance of her film with Globe nominations yesterday. Instead, Globe lead Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) grabs one slot, while Foster was booted, making room for the wonderful inclusion of Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari), who wasn’t a sure thing at all here. I’m not sure why Burstyn missed again, and instead we have one a very young nominee, Helena Zengel (News of the World). Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) is in good company with costar Amy Adams scoring a companion nod, and Olivia Colman (The Father) is a triple nominee this year, also cited for her TV role on “The Crown” and as part of its ensemble.

Who will win? I think Bakalova wins.

SAG Nominees: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Father

Well, this list is a bit refreshing. Keeping just one of the ten Golden Globe nominees for best picture - The Trial of the Chicago 7 - we get a firm endorsement of a few other films. Da 5 Bloods, completely snubbed at the Globes, rebounds with this nod and a mention for supporting actor Chadwick Boseman, though star Delroy Lindo is mysteriously left off again. Minari, which only got in for foreign film at the Globes, got two individual nominations, while Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom added to its two recognized stars with this very deserved bid. One Night in Miami, which likely just missed the top Globe category given its mention for director, is here too, which is great. In terms of what didn’t make the cut, it’s most worrisome for “Mank,” which recovered well from a spotty precursor record yesterday and probably should have been here without much trouble. “Nomadland,” “Promising Young Woman,” or “The Father” showing up would have been an excessive show of support for any of those films since none are really ensemble pieces. Even if this wouldn’t be exactly my list, these are all clear instances of great group work.

Who will win? I’ll pick The Trial of the Chicago 7 for now.

SAG Nominees: Best Actor in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)

I was thrown off by presenter Lily Collins’ excitement at announcing her costar Gary Oldman (Mank), who was not a sure thing, had been nominated, and that meant the alphabetical skipping of Lindo, who was also omitted from the corresponding Golden Globe list. Oldman is, however, the lone representative of his film, while Lindo is nominated as part of his cast. The open slot wonderfully went to Steven Yeun (Minari), who made up for his film’s Globes underperformance as one of three nods today. Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) actually earned four posthumous nominations, two for individual acting and two for both films’ ensembles. Anthony Hopkins (The Father) is in good company with his costar Olivia Colman, while Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), not unsurprisingly, is on his own.

Who will win? I’m betting on Ahmed but we’ll see if that still feels true closer to show time.

SAG Nominees: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 2/5, picking only “The Irishman” and “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Who’s missing? Marriage Story, Little Women, Dolemite Is My Name, Knives Out

Well, this is a surprise. I cheered so loudly when Parasite was announced, making it only the second foreign-language film ever nominated in this race. To see an entirely Korean cast nominated is truly fantastic, and I couldn’t be happier about it. What’s not quite as exciting is a shut-out for “Little Women,” which is not good news for a film that includes a great cast. The same might be true for Golden Globes nomination leader “Marriage Story,” which still managed three individual nominations even if it couldn’t be here. Its omission would be a lot more troubling if films like “The Shape of Water” and “Green Book,” both of which went on to win Best Picture, hadn’t been snubbed here as well. The big get is for Bombshell, which scored individual accolades for all three of its female stars. Jojo Rabbit, also nominated for Scarlett Johansson's individual performance, is a fun choice since there really were some great and entertaining players involved. The two expected bigwigs, The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, both of which scored two individual acting bids, round out a category that doesn’t upset me much even if I’d love to see other films also represented here. I know that Nathaniel from The Film Experience always does a run-through of which ensemble players weren’t actually nominated from each of these casts, and, in addition to many actors with small roles in “Bombshell” and “The Irishman” who aren’t mentioned, the most egregious omission seems to be Archie Yates from “Jojo Rabbit.” All in all, this list is better than it’s been in years, in my opinion.

Who will win? I think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood takes it, though I’d be so happy if it was “Parasite.”

SAG Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 4/5, missing Kidman
Who’s missing? Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Annette Bening (The Report), Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey), Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell), Florence Pugh (Little Women)

I was so blindsided by the inclusion of Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) that I didn’t realize that I correctly predicted the other four nominees in this category. That’s a big boost for her film, which has been underperforming with some awards bodies, and she joins costar Margot Robbie (Bombshell), who I thought was much better. Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit) missed out on a Golden Globe nomination in this race but rebounded here, joining her costar from another film, Laura Dern (Marriage Story), to become this year’s only double nominee. Rounding out the list is Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), who looks now like a sure thing for an Oscar nomination, even with no other support for her film. Kidman and Johansson are also nominated as part of their ensembles, and Robbie contends in that race for two different films.

Who will win? I think this goes to Lopez.

SAG Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 4/5, missing Foxx
Who’s missing? Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit), Sam Rockwell (Richard Jewell)

Now here was a great surprise: Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy), a past SAG winner who earned three individual bids fifteen years ago and hasn’t been back on his own since. He is great in the film, and it’s nice to see him earn some buzz. Hopkins missing out isn’t a big deal since SAG didn’t honor his film anywhere else, and he may still manage an Oscar nomination. Though other awards bodies chose one over the other, both Al Pacino (The Irishman) and Joe Pesci (The Irishman) made it in, joining Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), all on his own, and Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), supported by his ensemble and a costar. I’m fine with this list – it’s a good one.

Who will win? I think this actually goes to Pesci.

SAG Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 3/5, missing Erivo and Nyong’o
Who’s missing? Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Awkwafina (The Farewell), Alfre Woodard (Clemency)

I didn’t even realize until I sat down to write this category that Awkwafina didn’t make the cut, which makes me sad. Many are likely thrilled that Lupita Nyong’o (Us) is here, and while I am glad that I finally watched and reviewed the film yesterday, I don’t think she deserves a spot here. Cynthia Erivo (Harriet) is doing better than many have expected, nabbing a slot over Ronan. The other three were expected: Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Renee Zellweger (Judy), and Charlize Theron (Bombshell), whose film picked up a lot of steam today and is the only one of this bunch to earn an ensemble bid.

Who will win? I suspect Zellweger wins here like everywhere else.

SAG Nominees: Best Actor in a Leading Role

My predictions: 3/5, missing Bale and Egerton
Who’s missing? Robert De Niro (The Irishman), Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name), Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

This category offered one major surprise in the form of Taron Egerton (Rocketman). The movie didn’t do much for me, and as a result I’m not excited, but it does throw the Oscar race for a loop since his film, which earned a Golden Globe bid for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical, was expected just to show up in technical races. I’d much rather have seen Murphy here. I expected that Banderas might miss here, and also that Pryce might, but both could be back for the Oscars. De Niro’s omission is troubling for him, but his film seems to have no problem showing up elsewhere without him. Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari) also gets another boost, on his own again this time. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) is no surprise, and Adam Driver (Marriage Story) got in along with two of his cast members. The only nominee also recognized as part of his ensemble is Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), who is looking like more of an Oscar sure thing after that wasn’t the case earlier on this season.

Who will win? I think Phoenix takes it without much of a problem.

SAG Nominees: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 1/5, picking only “Crazy Rich Asians”
Who’s missing? The Favourite, Vice, Widows, If Beale Street Could Talk

I didn’t realize quite how badly I had done here. That said, there are some definite surprises. I guess I’ve been spoiled by the past few years where we got new contenders who hadn’t been honored in the top races at the Golden Globes, like “The Big Sick,” “Mudbound,” “Captain Fantastic,” “Hidden Figures,” “Beasts of No Nation,” “Straight Outta Compton,” and “Trumbo.” This year, all five were recognized there, though they’re not the ones you might think. “The Favourite” was highly expected to make the cut, and its omission is deeply troubling, and disappointing because it’s not just the three terrific women, and the same argument could be made for A Star is Born, which did manage to make the cut. The snub for “Vice” is problematic for that film though not damning, whereas this should be the end of the line, regrettably, for “Widows.” The absence of “If Beale Street Could Talk” is very disconcerting, signaling that support for the great film might not be as strong as it should be, though both “The Shape of Water” and “Call Me By Your Name” missed out here last year. Crazy Rich Asians getting in isn’t a big deal since it makes sense as a fun choice, and that doesn’t necessarily bolster its chances. Interestingly, it’s one of two films nominated without an individual cast representative, along with Black Panther, another good choice with lots of great players. I’m fine with the inclusion of BlacKkKlansman even if it wasn’t my favorite of the year. Rounding out the list is a less expected choice, Bohemian Rhapsody, that I’m behind since I liked it a lot more than most critics. It’s now a much stronger contender for the Best Picture Oscar given its placement here and at the Globes. The question is, like last year, will not all these films make the cut with the Oscars? On a less optimistic note, it’s worth reading Nathaniel’s deep dive into which ensemble players weren’t actually nominated over at The Film Experience.

Who will win? These are some competitive nominees – my guess is that Black Panther wins over the likelier frontrunner, “A Star is Born.”

SAG Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 3/5, missing Blunt and Robbie
Who’s missing? Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Claire Foy (First Man), Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)

Well, this is troubling. No one thought that there was any reason to fear King being omitted, especially after she joined Amy Adams (Vice) as a double nominee at the Golden Globes. But she’s nowhere to be found after winning a handful of critics’ prizes already, and her film didn’t make the cut in ensemble as I had hoped it would. Also forgotten is Foy, who I would have thought would have been nominated after back-to-back wins the past two years for her TV work. Now, I haven’t seen Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place) in either of her nominated films, so I’m going to work up the courage to sit down and watch it within the next week so that I can comment on the validity of her placement here. Margot Robbie (Mary, Queen of Scots), on the other hand, didn’t impress me nearly as much as any of the other performers in this category. Their ensemble got snubbed, but at least Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) and Emma Stone (The Favourite), the third double nominee in this category, got in.

Who will win? Without King, who is the frontrunner? My movie is actually on Weisz.

SAG Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 5/5
Who’s missing? Sam Rockwell (Vice), Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)

This category was the easiest one to predict, confirming what everyone expected about it. After his Golden Globe snub, Sam Elliott (A Star is Born) bumped Rockwell, whose film also missed out on an expected ensemble bid. The other four nominees were nominated at the Globes as well. Along with Elliott, Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) is also nominated as part of his film’s ensemble. Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) is here on his own, while Mahershala Ali (Green Book) and Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) have one costar apiece joining them. This is very likely to be the Oscar list – another contender would have needed to show up somewhere by this point. Jordan, who earned a Critics’ Choice bid, is the only one with a real shot.

Who will win? We’ll see if there’s a frontrunner by then. My guess is it will be Ali.

SAG Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5, missing Blunt
Who’s missing? Viola Davis (Widows), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Rosamund Pike (A Private War), Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)

Well, that’s it for Davis and her film. It’s missed too many places, and unlike others that have triumphed at the last minute, this one has been out for weeks. Instead, late-breaking buzz for Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns) has resulted in her being a double nominee. I’m seeing the film on opening night one week from tonight and look forward to sharing thoughts. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) seems to be safe, as does Glenn Close (The Wife), and Olivia Colman (The Favourite) made the cut along with her two supporting costars despite an unfortunate snub for the ensemble. Rounding out the list is Lady Gaga (A Star is Born), representing one of four mentions for her film, keeping her as the frontrunner here, in my opinion. Barring a big surprise, this will be the Oscar list.

Who will win? I’m going with Gaga.

SAG Nominees: Best Actor in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5, missing Washington
Who’s missing? Ethan Hawke (First Reformed), Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns)

This category waited alphabetically for its final surprise, omitting, as I had predicted, critics’ favorite Hawke. He’s probably still in for the Oscar at the expense of someone no one thinks will be snubbed, like James Franco from last year. I wouldn’t count out unexpected inclusion John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman), whose film seems to be going the distance and whose trajectory might mirror that of his father Denzel’s two years ago, albeit with support for his movie. He’s nominated along with the ensemble of his film, joining Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) and, less expectedly, Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) in that distinction. The other two nominees didn’t achieve that distinction, despite many predicting it: Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) and Christian Bale (Vice), joined by one supporting player each. This list is mostly standard, with Washington gaining plenty of momentum on the way to the Oscars.

Who will win? Based on the ensemble nomination, I think Malek can do it over Bale.

SAG Nominees: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 3/5, picking “The Post” and “The Shape of Water” over “Get Out” and “Lady Bird”
Who’s missing? The Post, The Shape of Water, Call Me By Your Name, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya

Let me start by citing my excitement that, after being shut out by Globe voters earlier this week, The Big Sick is here for a wonderful ensemble that deserves so much praise. Though I didn’t predict it, I’m very happy for Lady Bird, whose ensemble is superb. I’m not on board the Get Out train though I’d argue that the acting is decent. This category, long seen as a necessary Oscar stop on the way to Best Picture, is most impactful for the snubs of three high-profile films that might have been seen as the frontrunners. I think they’ll all end up with Best Picture bids for sure, but this is a dent in the road to Oscar that I was predicting for “Call Me By Your Name.” Mudbound was always going to do well here and might enter the Best Picture race after little Globes love, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, once not a sure thing, has cemented itself as a lock for Oscar love and maybe even for a top win.

Who will win? Though “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” has the most individual acting nominees - three - I think this is going to Mudbound.