Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor

I’m offering winner predictions in all categories for the Oscars as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Actor.

Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

I’m offering predictions in all categories for the Oscar nominations as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Actor.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!), Will Smith (King Richard), Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Previous winners: Anthony Hopkins, Joaquin Phoenix, Rami Malek, Gary Oldman, Casey Affleck, Leonardo DiCaprio, Eddie Redmayne
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: All five of these men have been nominated previously. Washington has two wins – for “Glory” and “Training Day” – and this is his ninth acting bid. Bardem won in 2007 for “No Country for Old Men” and has two additional bids. Smith, who is also nominated as a producer on his film, was nominated twice before, for “Ali” and “The Pursuit of Happyness.” Cumberbatch and Garfield each have one previous bid, for “The Imitation Game” and “Hacksaw Ridge,” respectively. Only Cumberbatch and Smith have their films nominated for Best Picture. Smith has collected most precursor prizes, though Garfield has won a few as well. This exact list contended at SAG. Last year marked only the second time that an actor in this category had won both the Golden Globe and the SAG and then lost this prize, with the late Chadwick Boseman joining Russell Crowe, whose 2001 performance in “A Beautiful Mind” was ultimately bested by Washington.
Who should win: Garfield or Cumberbatch
Who will win: I think Smith has a clear shot to the Oscar.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Leading Role

My predictions: 5/5
My ballot: Coming soon
The nominees: Javier Bardem, Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Will Smith, Denzel Washington 

For the second year in a row, this category replicates the exact SAG list, with Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) ultimately making the cut after an unexpected citation there. What defines more than half of this race is its actors’ films underperforming, with both Bardem and Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) joined by only two other bids for their projects, and Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!) just one. Will Smith (King Richard) is in good company with five other nominations for his film, while Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) is predictably part of the most-honored work. This is a good list that makes me happy enough.

My current bet to win: Especially given his film’s decent performance today, Smith will likely still get this.

Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Riz Ahmed, Chadwick Boseman, Anthony Hopkins, Gary Oldman, Steven Yeun

This year’s locks: Will Smith, Benedict Cumberbatch

Very likely: Andrew Garfield

Possible: Denzel Washington, Javier Bardem, Peter Dinklage, Leonardo DiCaprio

Unlikely: Nicolas Cage, Hidetoshi Nishijima, Mahershala Ali

The rundown: Four out of five of these slots seem safe, though it’s never a good idea to make that proclamation definitively. Will Smith (King Richard) and Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) haven’t missed anywhere and should be completely set. Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!) and Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) are both in the situation of having their films be possible Best Picture nominees but far from guaranteed. Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) seems strongest for the last slot after scoring a SAG bid, but there’s plenty of other competition. Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) might have been a stronger contender if his film had actually been released, and its performance may suffer from a lackluster awards campaign. Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) managed a BAFTA nomination, but I don’t know that it will translate to a bid here. The same goes for Mahershala Ali (Swan Song), who wasn’t on anyone’s radar for the Golden Globes or BAFTA but is obviously admired by many. Nicolas Cage (Pig), a past winner in this category, is also a possibility, as is Hidetoshi Nishijima (Drive My Car), who gets a boost from his film’s frontrunner status in the Best International Feature category.

For your consideration: I would be thrilled to see Simon Rex (Red Rocket), but I think his film might be too under-the-radar in the end.

Forecasted winner: This looks like Smith.

AFT Awards: Best Actor in a Leading Role

This is the first category of the 14th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. I’m drawing only from films that were either released or playing at a film festival in the 2020 calendar year. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them.. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami), Sarm Heng (Buoyancy), Cooper Raiff (S#!&house)

Runners-up:
Pete Davidson (The King of Staten Island)
Eli Goree (One Night in Miami)
Jahi Di’Allo Winston (Charm City Kings)
Andy Samberg (Palm Springs)
Fionn O'Shea (Dating Amber)

The winner:
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) tuned into the passion and ego of a man best equipped to express himself through music and equally capable of doing so through words. It’s a formidable final performance.

Other nominees:
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Clayne Crawford (The Killing of Two Lovers)
Bartosz Bielenia (Corpus Christi)
Gary Oldman (Mank)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)

Previous winners: Joaquin Phoenix, Rami Malek, Gary Oldman, Casey Affleck, Leonardo DiCaprio, Eddie Redmayne, Matthew McConaughey
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: This category includes two previous winners and three first-time nominees. Hopkins was nominated last year for “The Two Popes” and previously for “Amistad,” “Nixon,” and “The Remains of the Day.” He won on his first nomination in 1991 for “The Silence of the Lambs.” Oldman won in 2017 for “Darkest Hour” and was also nominated in 2011 for “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.” All five of these films are up for Best Picture, and this exact list contended at SAG, while Yeun was the only one not nominated for a Golden Globe. Five men have contended posthumously for this award, and only one – Peter Finch in 1976 – won. That’s likely to change this year since Chadwick Boseman, who died in August at the age of forty-three, was already awarded the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice Award. Only one actor in this category has won both the Globe and the SAG and then lost this prize, and that was Russell Crowe in 2001 for “A Beautiful Mind,” and he hardly had the same reputation as Boseman did.
Who should win: Boseman or Ahmed
Who will win: This is going to Boseman.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5, picking Delroy Lindo over Oldman
My ballot: Coming soon
The nominees: Riz Ahmed, Chadwick Boseman, Anthony Hopkins, Gary Oldman, Steven Yeun

This category replicates the exact SAG list, which is a tough break for Delroy Lindo, who was considered a frontrunner early on when his film was released but, like Ethan Hawke a few years ago for “First Reformed,” just didn’t end up making it in to most of the biggest precursors. I had predicted that Gary Oldman (Mank) would find himself snubbed, but his film got the ten nominations I had expected it to, sadly missing out on a screenplay bid instead. I’m glad he’s here since his performance really was terrific. I’m pleased with the entire category. Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) is the only one whose film isn’t nominated for Best Picture, and the late actor also only earned one nomination when many (including me) predicted him to get two. Anthony Hopkins (The Father) is, along with Oldman, a past winner in this category, while Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) and Steven Yeun (Minari) are very welcome first-time nominees.

My current bet to win: Even though his film didn’t make the top race, I think Boseman will still be rewarded.

Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Antonio Banderas, Leonardo DiCaprio, Adam Driver, Joaquin Phoenix, Jonathan Pryce

This year’s locks: Chadwick Boseman, Anthony Hopkins

Very likely: Riz Ahmed

Possible: Delroy Lindo, Steven Yeun, Gary Oldman

Unlikely: Tahar Rahim, Mads Mikkelsen, Kingsley Ben-Adir, Tom Hanks, Sacha Baron Cohen, Ben Affleck, John David Washington, Eli Goree

The rundown: This category doesn’t feel quite as unpredictable as the other acting races. The late Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), who won the Golden Globe, is the surest thing, and Anthony Hopkins (The Father) will no doubt join him. Though his film hasn’t picked up all that much traction in other categories at some major precursors, Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) feels like a safe bet, and I’m expecting that his film may perform considerably better at the Oscars. Theoretically, Gary Oldman (Mank) is next in line, given that he’s been cited by most other groups, but I’ve felt along that he might end up getting snubbed. It’s been strange that Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) missed out with both the Globes and SAG, and it’s hard to imagine him missing out here too. Steven Yeun (Minari) showed up at SAG, and I think he’ll be able to repeat that appearance here. There are a slew of contenders who had seemed to be in the running for a while and could still show up as surprises. I feel like Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian) may benefit most from his costar Jodie Foster’s Globe win, but he was only nominated there, and so there isn’t an industry-wise groundswell of support for his film. Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round) has the advantage of his film being a shoo-in Best International Feature nominee, but foreign actors in the past have scored consistently at other places than just the European Film Awards. While the film might perform decently, it’s likely too late for Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami) or Eli Goree (One Night in Miami) to break into this race. Tom Hanks (News of the World) and Ben Affleck (The Way Back) both earned Critics Choice Award nominations, and Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) won the comedy Globe. I wish that John David Washington (Malcolm and Marie) was a legitimate possibility at this point, but I think his costar Zendaya is the only one with a (slim) chance.

For your consideration: It was a year with great comedic performances, namely the surprisingly mature turns from Andy Samberg (Palm Springs) and Pete Davidson (The King of Staten Island).

Forecasted winner: I see Boseman as the very likely winner.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Previous winners: Rami Malek, Gary Oldman, Casey Affleck, Leonardo DiCaprio, Eddie Redmayne, Matthew McConaughey, Daniel Day-Lewis
My winner: Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell)
The facts: The only previous winner in this race is DiCaprio, who won on his last try in 2015 for “The Revenant” after four previous nominations, for “The Wolf of Wall Street,” “Blood Diamond,” “The Aviator,” and “What’s Eating Gilbert Grape?” Phoenix has been nominated three times before, for “The Master,” “Walk the Line,” and “Gladiator.” Driver contended last year for “BlacKkKlansman.” This is the first nomination for both Banderas and Pryce, whose films are not nominated for Best Picture but each have additional nominations. Phoenix, whose film is the nominations leader, has won every award on the path to this one, and the comedy Golden Globe winner, Taron Egerton, isn’t nominated.
Who should win: I’d pick Pryce or Phoenix.
Who will win: This is going to Phoenix.

AFT Awards: Best Actor in a Leading Role

This is the first category of the 13th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them and drawn from a pool of approximately 233 films. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Grant Rosenmeyer (Come As You Are), Jay Duplass (Pink Wall), Jimmie Fails (The Last Black Man in San Francisco), Ray Romano (Paddleton)

Runners-up:
Pete Davidson (Big Time Adolescence)
Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)
Nick Kroll (Olympic Dreams)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Shuli Rand (The Unorthodox)

The winner:
Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell) warmly embodied a truly kind spirit, someone who wanted to be helpful just for the sake of being nice without perceiving all the malice others could concoct.

Other nominees:
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name)
Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit)

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5, picking Taron Egerton over Pryce
My ballot: Come back later this week!
The nominees: Antonio Banderas, Leonardo DiCaprio, Adam Driver, Joaquin Phoenix, Jonathan Pryce

Here we have one of the biggest – and only – surprise snubs of the day in the form of Taron Egerton (Rocketman), who was nominated by SAG and even won at the Globes, where he beat Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), which ended up being the second most-nominated film. I wasn’t as taken with Egerton’s performance as others, so the snub doesn’t sting for me, but I wouldn’t have minded seeing him here. Another Globe and SAG honoree, Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), didn’t place, even with his film getting four nominations. The silver lining is that Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) managed to get in, which is wonderful, though, sadly, Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) didn’t merit a mention, and his film was completely shut out, which is a real shame. Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) was the other non-sure thing, and he’s here along with his film in the International Feature race. No one is surprised to see Adam Driver (Marriage Story), and expected winner Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), whose film ended up as the nominations leader with eleven bids.

My current bet to win: With his film out front, Phoenix feels unstoppable.

Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Christian Bale, Bradley Cooper, Willem Dafoe, Rami Malek, Viggo Mortensen

This year’s locks: Joaquin Phoenix, Adam Driver

Very likely: Leonardo DiCaprio

Possible: Antonio Banderas, Taron Egerton, Christian Bale, Adam Sandler, Jonathan Pryce, Robert De Niro, Eddie Murphy

Unlikely: George MacKay, Paul Walter Hauser

The rundown: This year marks the most interesting this category has been in a long time. It’s a shame because there are so many deserving performances, and they’re definitely not all going to make the cut. I’m conflicted about who to predict here, and actually made some last-minute adjustments after the Golden Globes last night. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) and Adam Driver (Marriage Story) feel like the only sure things at this point. Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) has performed solidly and consistently throughout this entire awards season, and so a snub would be pretty surprising, though it’s still possible. Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess. Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari) managed Golden Globe and SAG bids without greater support for his film, but missed out on a slot in the seven-wide Critics Choice lineup, where his film did make it in as a nominee in the top category. Being a nominee last year will probably help him, but it’s hard to know whether he can reach the finish line here. Both Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) and Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) were cited by the Globes, where their films also did well, but then ignored by SAG. These feel like the performances that could finally earn these actors their first Oscar nominations, but it’s not looking that likely anymore, especially for Pryce, who missed with the Critics Choice Awards despite there being space for his costar Anthony Hopkins. Robert De Niro (The Irishman) missed out with both Globe and SAG, with supporting actors Al Pacino and Joe Pesci showing up in both places, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be swept along with his film. Taron Egerton (Rocketman) merited Globe and SAG nominations, and could benefit from Rami Malek winning last year for another portrait of a popular musician. His Globe win last night made me swap him in here since he really does seem to be very popular. I wish that Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) seemed likelier, and I hope that I’m wrong about his chances, but I don’t think that Globe and Critics Choice bids show enough support for him. There hasn’t been enough awards conversation around the late-breaking George MacKay (1917) for him to factor in, though it’s always possible, and, no matter how much he deserves it, Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell) is unlikely to overcome negative press about certain elements of his film. I was originally predicting Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems) for the fifth slot, but now I think that his trajectory this season, which includes Critics Choice and Spirit nominations, is most similar to Ethan Hawke last year, who was ultimately not nominated. I’m expecting a surprising list here in some way, and hopefully a good one. I may change this on Sunday when I post my final predictions – I’m still not too confident.

One possible crazy scenario: A wonderful Globe nominee, Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit), overcomes his age to join his film with a lead acting nomination.

Forecasted winner: It should be Phoenix barring any serious surprises.

AFT Awards: Best Actor in a Leading Role

This is the first category of the 12th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them and drawn from a pool of approximately 200 films. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Nick Offerman (Hearts Beat Loud), Sunny Siljic (Mid90s)

Runners-up:
Daveed Diggs (Blindspotting)
Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun)
Jeffrey Wright (O.G.)
Ben Foster (Leave No Trace)
Martin Freeman (Cargo)

The winner:
Evan Peters (American Animals) created a character whose energy was infectious and completely dominated by a wild and active imagination, all the more impressive because the real-life person he played also appeared in the film.

Other nominees:
Steve Buscemi (The Death of Stalin) used his signature affect to perfectly convey an eager heir to the throne, who didn’t miss any opportunity for comedy in his many machinations (bonus points for wearing pajamas under his suit). Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) leaned into the less sophisticated aspects of his unenlightened heavyweight, crafting an endearing and hilarious figure who felt believable. Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) didn’t need fake teeth to feel like Freddie Mercury, conveying his outlook on the world and his passion for creating cutting-edge music. Ansel Elgort (Jonathan) turned in an incredible double performance as two brothers who never actually saw each other, emoting on camera and reacting to watching that same video as if he really were two separate people.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), Christian Bale (Vice), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

Previous winners: Gary Oldman, Casey Affleck, Leonardo DiCaprio, Eddie Redmayne, Matthew McConaughey, Daniel Day-Lewis, Jean Dujardin
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Though he missed out on a Best Director bid, Cooper, who has three previous acting nominations, also contends for producing and writing his film. Bale won on his first of three prior bids for “The Fighter” in 2010, and in this is his second time contending for an Adam McKay film after “The Big Short” in 2015. The two of them were both nominees for “American Hustle” in 2013. Dafoe was nominated last year for “The Florida Project,” marking his second consecutive go as the sole representative from his film. He was previously nominated was back in 2000 and 1986. Mortensen was nominated twice before, for “Captain Fantastic” in 2016 and “Eastern Promises” in 2007. This is Malek’s first nomination. The last time the star of a film not nominated for Best Picture won this prize was Jeff Bridges for “Crazy Heart” in 2009, which applies only to Dafoe this year. After they both won Golden Globes, Bale took home the Critics’ Choice Award and Malek won the SAG. In the two times that the split has happened the same way among the three groups, the SAG victor prevailed.

Who should win: I was rooting for Dafoe much more last year than this time around, as his portrayal of Vincent Van Gogh was indeed one of the strongest elements of his film but doesn’t compare to his performance as a hotel manager in my favorite film from 2017. I also get that Bale’s imitation is impressive, but both the role and the movie are so interlinked that I’d be frustrated with him winning. Cooper getting an accolade for his directorial debut wouldn’t upset me since it was one of his better performances. Mortensen was great in his film, and I’d be perfectly happy if he won. It’s hard to argue with Malek’s turn though, and I’d be very pleased to see the surprise Emmy winner for “Mr. Robot” from a few years ago earn an Oscar.
Who will win: Count out Mortensen and Dafoe. It’s possible that Cooper could upset given that the last director-star this happened to, Ben Affleck, didn’t have the benefit of a Best Actor bid where voters could reward him. Bale has a strong shot given his film’s performance in major categories, but Malek feels far enough ahead given the season-long embrace of his film.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Christian Bale’s Dick Cheney (Vice), Bradley Cooper’s alcoholic country star (A Star is Born), Viggo Mortensen’s prejudiced driver (Green Book), Rami Malek’s Freddie Mercury (Bohemian Rhapsody), and John David Washington’s undercover officer (BlacKkKlansman).

For your information: Bale won for “The Fighter” in 2010 and was also nominated for “The Big Short” in 2015 picking up ensemble nominations for both films, “3:10 to Yuma” in 2007, and a win for “American Hustle” in 2013, shared by Cooper, who also earned individual and ensemble bids the previous year for “Silver Linings Playbook.” Mortensen was nominated in 2007 for “Eastern Promises” and in 2016 as part individually and as part of the ensemble of “Captain Fantastic.” He also contended from 2001 to 2003 as part of the cast of the “Lord of the Rings” trilogy, winning for the third. Malek was nominated in 2015 and 2016 for starring in “Mr. Robot.” This is the first nomination for Washington, who is the only one in this group not nominated for an Oscar. Cooper, Malek, and Washington are all nominated as part of their ensembles. Malek and Bale won Golden Globes, while Bale took home the Critics’ Choice Award. All but five times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.

Who should win? I wasn’t as impressed with Washington’s performance as many have been, and while I appreciate Bale’s mimicry, he wouldn’t be my choice. Cooper was good, though I think I’d vote for either Malek, or likelier, Mortensen.

Who will win? Some are backing Bale or Cooper, but I’m sticking with Malek.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5, picking Ethan Hawke over Dafoe
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

I was cringing, waiting for the snub of someone fully expected to make this list, like James Franco was last year. But, instead, we just saw the two likeliest misses not make the cut – John David Washington and Ethan Hawke – while their films performed about as well as people thought. The surprise inclusion is Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), one of two acting choices also nominated last year. He did a good job as Vincent Van Gogh, but, like Sam Rockwell, his turn in “The Florida Project” was far superior. The rest of the list is completely expected: Golden Globe winner Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Globe and Critics’ Choice winner Christian Bale (Vice), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), and Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), whose day was not nearly as good as everyone thought it would be.

My current bet to win: It’s possible Cooper gets this as a consolation prize but I think that Bale may have eclipsed Malek as the winner due to reception of his film.

Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 22nd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Timothée Chalamet, Daniel Day-Lewis, Daniel Kaluuya, Gary Oldman, Denzel Washington

My choices: Coming in February!

This year’s locks: Bradley Cooper, Rami Malek, Viggo Mortensen

Very likely: Christian Bale

Possible: Ethan Hawke, John David Washington

Unlikely: Ryan Gosling, Willem Dafoe, Lucas Hedges, Ben Foster

The rundown: The lineup that I’m predicting is one that most have expected throughout awards season, and there’s just one question mark: Ethan Hawke (First Reformed). He has racked up a staggering twenty-four wins from critics group yet missed out with both the Golden Globes and the SAGs. The man who got in both of those places instead was John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman), and it wasn’t wise to understand his father, Denzel Washington, who earned those same two bids last year, and, like his son this year, missed out only at the Critics’ Choice Awards, before going on to make the eventual Oscar list. The question is if there will be someone like James Franco or, more likely, an expected sure thing who wasn’t hurt by publicity before the nominations, like Tom Hanks for “Captain Phillips” or John Hawkes for “The Sessions,” who gets bumped in favor of both Hawke and Washington making the cut. Though his film underperformed at the Globes, Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) is safe. While Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) was once thought vulnerable, his Globe win and his film’s shocking victory make his inclusion a sure thing. And Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) is also looking fine after his film did excellently at the Globes. Though it seemed that critical divisiveness might stop Christian Bale (Vice), I think he’s in too, even if for some reason his film falters, which also doesn’t look likely at this point. Beyond that, there’s Ryan Gosling (First Man), who earned a Critics’ Choice bid and whose film is likely to dominate the technical categories, and Globe nominees Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), who also earned a Critics’ Choice mention, and Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), all likely to garner some votes. I’d be ecstatic if Ben Foster (Leave No Trace), who I had championed for a supporting nod two years ago for “Hell or High Water,” made the cut, but it’s a true longshot, especially since some will for some reason place him in the supporting race. Both John C. Reilly (Stan and Ollie), a Globe nominee, and Steve Coogan (Stan and Ollie), a BAFTA nominee, could siphon votes, but hardly enough for either of them to place.

One possible crazy scenario: A forgotten film from Sundance last year makes a deserved appearance for its Tony-winning star, Daveed Diggs (Blindspotting), who was nominated by the Film Independent Spirit Awards.

Forecasted winner: Given how popular his film has been, Malek seems pretty unstoppable at this point.

SAG Nominees: Best Actor in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5, missing Washington
Who’s missing? Ethan Hawke (First Reformed), Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns)

This category waited alphabetically for its final surprise, omitting, as I had predicted, critics’ favorite Hawke. He’s probably still in for the Oscar at the expense of someone no one thinks will be snubbed, like James Franco from last year. I wouldn’t count out unexpected inclusion John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman), whose film seems to be going the distance and whose trajectory might mirror that of his father Denzel’s two years ago, albeit with support for his movie. He’s nominated along with the ensemble of his film, joining Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) and, less expectedly, Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) in that distinction. The other two nominees didn’t achieve that distinction, despite many predicting it: Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) and Christian Bale (Vice), joined by one supporting player each. This list is mostly standard, with Washington gaining plenty of momentum on the way to the Oscars.

Who will win? Based on the ensemble nomination, I think Malek can do it over Bale.

SAG Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

Last year’s nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name), James Franco (The Disaster Artist), Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

Let’s start with the sure things, of which there are three: Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), and Christian Bale (Vice), whose film seemed like it was peaking too late until it ended up being the top nominations getter at the Golden Globes. Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) should be safe, and it’s anybody’s guess for the last slot. Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), and John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman) were all recognized in drama at the Golden Globes, while Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun) seems like a stronger threat than either John C. Reilly (Stan and Ollie) or Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns), who might also contend in supporting instead. Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) and Ryan Gosling (First Man) both missed out at the Globes but may well be able to score here, though I’m going to go out on a limb and predict Redford for a surprise mention.

Current predictions:
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun)