SAG Winner Predictions
Showing posts with label SAG Awards. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SAG Awards. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 22, 2023
Wednesday, January 11, 2023
SAG Nominations Announced
Tuesday, January 10, 2023
Wednesday, February 23, 2022
SAG Winner Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture
For your information: “House of Gucci” has two performers nominated, while “Belfast,” “CODA,” and “King Richard” each have one. Every nominee but “House of Gucci” is nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. Despite three individual nominations, “The Power of the Dog” didn’t get included here. “Black Panther” and “Parasite” both won this prize without any individual nominations, which could bode well for “Don’t Look Up.” The winner of this award has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar twelve times since its inception in 1995.
Who should win? I would be thrilled to see either “CODA” or “Belfast” prevail.
Who will win? It’s hard to know what the frontrunner is here. My gut is that Belfast wins, though it’s really up in the air.
Tuesday, February 22, 2022
SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role
For your information: Aside from Dunst, who has a previous ensemble bid (and win) for “Hidden Figures,” the only woman in this category who isn’t a first-time nominee is Blanchett. She has nine previous individual nominations, which resulted in wins for “The Aviator” and “Blue Jasmine,” and six ensemble bids, one of which led to a win, for “The Return of the King.” Balfe is the only one whose ensemble is also nominated this year, but Blanchett is also nominated as part of the “Don’t Look Up” ensemble. Only DeBose and Dunst are in the corresponding Oscar lineup. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.
Who should win? I would choose DeBose or Blanchett, but Balfe and Negga are also solid picks.
Who will win? I think DeBose wins, but Dunst could also triumph here.
SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role
For your information: Though he has three past ensemble nominations and two wins – for “Shakespeare in Love” and “Argo” – this is his first individual bid. Cooper has two previous individual nominations, for “Silver Linings Playbook” and “A Star is Born.” Leto was nominated for this prize last year for “The Little Things” and won in 2013 for “Dallas Buyers Club.” This is the first nomination for both Kotsur and Smit-McPhee, who are also the only two from this category who got nominated for Oscars. Kotsur and Leto are also nominated as part of their ensembles. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.
Who should win? Kotsur is my clear choice but I also liked Affleck’s work.
Who will win? It’s possible that Kotsur could swing ahead here with his film nominated in the ensemble category, but I think that Smit-McPhee remains the frontrunner.
Monday, February 21, 2022
SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Leading Role
For your information: Chastain has two previous nominations, for “Zero Dark Thirty” and “The Help.” Colman has two previous nominations for “The Crown” and was also recognized for “The Father” and “The Favourite.” Gaga was nominated for “A Star is Born.” Hudson won in 2006 for “Dreamgirls.” Kidman has nine previous nominations, with one win, for “Big Little Lies” in 2018. Only Gaga is also nominated this year as part of her ensemble. All but eight times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar, with the most recent case of that not happening being last year when Viola Davis beat eventual Oscar champ Frances McDormand. This year is interesting since Kidman beat Chastain, Colman, and Gaga at the Golden Globes, only Gaga is nominated at BAFTA, and Gaga and Hudson didn’t make the Oscar list. Expected nominee Kristen Stewart is absent from this list but in the Oscar lineup, along with Penélope Cruz.
Who should win? Chastain is my clear favorite from this list.
Who will win? I think Gaga wins here, though it could easily be Colman or Kidman too.
SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Leading Role
For your information: Bardem won a SAG Award in 2007 for “No Country for Old Men” and was nominated again in 2012 for “Skyfall.” Cumberbatch has two previous nominations for “Sherlock” and was also up in 2014 for “The Imitation Game.” Garfield was nominated in 2016 for “Hacksaw Ridge.” Smith was nominated in 2006 for “The Pursuit of Happyness.” Washington has five previous nominations, and he won on his most recent try, in 2016 for “Fences.” Only Smith is also nominated as part of his ensemble. All but five times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win an Oscar. The most recent time it didn’t happen was last year, when the late Chadwick Boseman defeated eventual Oscar champ Anthony Hopkins, and before that in 2016 when Washington beat eventually Oscar champ Casey Affleck here. Smith won the Golden Globe, beating out all but Garfield, who won the corresponding comedy/musical prize.
Who should win? I would choose Garfield or Cumberbatch.
Who will win? While Cumberbatch could ultimately pull ahead in the Oscar race, Smith is very likely to win here.
Wednesday, January 12, 2022
SAG Nominees: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Who’s missing? The Power of the Dog, West Side Story, Mass, The Harder They Fall, Being the Ricardos
Yikes. I did worst in this category, naming only one nominee – CODA – which did make the cut, and I’m so happy it did. The rest of the list is a bit more perplexing. I correctly predicted that “The Power of the Dog” would miss out, despite its three individual nominations, while Belfast, which only managed one, did get in. It’s just as puzzling that King Richard scored here since supporting actress Aunjanue Ellis was left off, while Don’t Look Up, which didn’t get any individual bids, also got in, which doesn’t thrill me. The big surprise is House of Gucci, which has two performers nominated and which definitely showcases a lot of acting, however excessive it may be. This is bad news for “Mass” and not a great development for “West Side Story.” It would also have been nice to see a truly ensemble effort like “The Harder They Fall” here.
Who will win? I’m not so sure. I’d love for it to be “CODA” but I’d also be happy with Belfast, which might be the frontrunner now.
SAG Nominees: Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Who’s missing? Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Marlee Matlin (CODA), Ann Dowd (Mass)
The big snub here is Ellis, though Amanda Seyfried bounced back from that omission last year and Regina King even managed to win without it. The beneficiary of the open slot is Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley), which makes me very happy since she was terrific in a film that hasn’t been consistently attracting attention. I had expected Ruth Negga (Passing) to miss here, but now she’s looking stronger for an Oscar nomination, even if her film hasn’t earned much attention. Caitriona Balfe (Belfast) is the only member of her cast to be nominated, and she’s also the only one in this category to have her ensemble cited. Golden Globe winner Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) is the lone representative of her film, while Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) has two of her costars nominated.
Who will win? I think DeBose can win here unless Dunst prevails.
SAG Nominees: Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Who’s missing? Ciarán Hinds (Belfast), Jamie Dornan (Belfast)
It’s strange to see the two “Belfast” boys snubbed, especially since the film made it into the ensemble race, where I had expected it to be snubbed. Though his film – which is one of my favorites of the year – isn’t cited elsewhere, Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) got in for a very minor albeit admittedly entertaining role. Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) also repeated his Golden Globe mention here, which is nice. Jared Leto (House of Gucci) joins the race for an over-the-top performance SAG voters obviously loved since they cited his ensemble too. I’m very happy that Troy Kotsur (CODA) didn’t get omitted, and he joins the frontrunner, Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog).
Who will win? I think Smit-McPhee is far enough ahead to win without a problem.
SAG Nominees: Best Female Actor in a Leading Role
Who’s missing? Kristen Stewart (Spencer), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Tessa Thompson (Passing), Rachel Zegler (West Side Story)
This is the biggest snub of the day and likely the season. Even if she wasn’t going to be the winner, Stewart was expected to be a nominee. The surprise win at the Golden Globes by Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) added a bit of competition to this race, but the absence of Stewart here is a real shock. The beneficiary of the open slot was Jennifer Hudson (Respect), who was originally expected to be a major contender and had dropped off throughout much of the precursors. She joins Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), both here on their own, and Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), who gets an unexpected boost from her film’s inclusion in the ensemble category.
Who will win? With Stewart out of the race, it’s anyone’s guess. I think Gaga might actually win, but it could be Kidman or Colman too.
SAG Nominees: Best Male Actor in a Leading Role
Who’s missing? Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), Nicolas Cage (Pig)
This category starts with an unexpected inclusion, a holdover from the Golden Globes that felt far from a sure thing: Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos). I liked him in the film and I’m fine with it, though it does mean that Dinklage didn’t get a boost that he needed for a film that’s flown somewhat under the radar. The rest of the list here is expected, boosting frontrunners Will Smith (King Richard) and Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) and making it look likelier and likelier that Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!) and Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) will join them at the Oscars.
Who will win? This should still go to Smith based on this list.
Sunday, January 9, 2022
SAG Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture
This category is the most competitive of all the races, and given its historical precedent for surprises, could include anything. West Side Story seems like the only true safe bet, since something like The Power of the Dog or Belfast, which should be sure things, might be snubbed like other presumed locks in the past. The Harder They Fall, which has been an inconsistent player this awards season, may be rewarded here. Don’t Look Up, King Richard, or Nightmare Alley could benefit from waves of support, while Licorice Pizza has been collecting a number of citations despite not really being an ensemble piece. Being the Ricardos is another possibility, as are CODA and Mass. I’m going to be bold and predict that both the juggernauts in this race get omitted.
Current predictions:
Being the Ricardos
CODA
The Harder They Fall
Mass
West Side Story
SAG Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role
This category, like the others, seems to have four pretty solid bets and a more open fifth slot. Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), and Caitriona Belfast (Belfast) are at the head of the pack. The fifth spot could be for Golden Globe nominee Ruth Negga (Passing), Critics Choice picks Ann Dowd (Mass) or Rita Moreno (West Side Story), or maybe Marlee Matlin (CODA). Or will it be someone else altogether?
Current predictions:
Caitriona Belfast (Belfast)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Marlee Matlin (CODA)
Saturday, January 8, 2022
SAG Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Looking at critics’ prizes and nominations lists, it seems like four men are probably set here: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog), Ciarán Hinds (Belfast), Jamie Dornan (Belfast), and Troy Kotsur (CODA). It’s not likely that the Golden Globes choice for the fifth slot, Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) will repeat here, but a questionable nominee from last year, Jared Leto (House of Gucci) could return instead. Leto was selected along with J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) by the Critics Choice Association. Other possibilities include Mike Faist (West Side Story), Jason Isaacs (Mass), or Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), or maybe someone completely surprising.
Current predictions:
Jamie Dornan (Belfast)
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jared Leto (House of Gucci)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
SAG Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Leading Role
This list seems relatively firmed up, but it’s possible someone will drop off now or just end up getting snubbed at the Oscars. At the head of the pack are Kristen Stewart (Spencer), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), and Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos). Next up might be Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), though they could be overtaken by Rachel Zegler (West Side Story), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Jennifer Hudson (Respect), Tessa Thompson (Passing), Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth), or Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers).
Current predictions:
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
SAG Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Leading Role
This category has two sure things, but beyond that, I don’t think anything is certain. Will Smith (King Richard) and Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) are at the head of the pack, and I would rank Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!) and Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) next. Theoretically, Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) could round out the group, but he’ll hand to fend off Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up), who could easily bump one of these men. Nicolas Cage (Pig) and Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon C’mon) are also still possible, as are Clifton Collins Jr. (Jockey), Mahershala Ali (Swan Song), Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley), or Oscar Isaac (The Card Counter). It’s a dream, but wouldn’t it be wonderful if Jude Hill (Belfast) snuck onto this list?
Current predictions:
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Peter Dinklage (Cyrano)
Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Wednesday, March 31, 2021
SAG Winner Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture
For your information: The first three alphabetical films have three performers nominated, while the last two have just one each. Chadwick Boseman appears in two of these nominees. Only two of these nominees – “Minari” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” – are up for the Oscar for Best Picture, making this the year of least crossover since 2015 (2007 is the most distinct with only “No Country for Old Men,” which won both prizes, cited by both groups). Neither Golden Globe Best Picture winner, “Nomadland” (also the Critics Choice victor) or “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm,” is represented here. The winner of this award has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar eleven twelve since its inception in 1995.
Who should win? This is a very strong category. It’s hard to argue with a dedicated and diverse group in “Da 5 Bloods,” the range of talent in “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” the fantastic four in “One Night in Miami,” so many superb actors in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” and the earnestness of everyone in “Minari.” I’d choose “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” but wouldn’t mind any of these winning.
Who will win? If it’s “Minari,” that would be very exciting and a great Korean-language follow-up to “Parasite” winning last year. The likelier and just as deserving option is The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Tuesday, March 30, 2021
SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role
For your information: Close won a SAG Award in 2018 for “The Wife” and in 2004 for the TV movie “The Lion in Winter.” She has seven additional nominations for her film and TV work, though interestingly has never contended as a part of any ensemble. Colman is also nominated this year for her performance in the series “The Crown” and as part of its ensemble, which took home this trophy last year. She was nominated for that role last year as well as for being part of the “Fleabag” ensemble, and also contended in 2018 for her turn in “The Favourite.” This is the first nomination for Bakalova, Youn, and Zengel. Only Youn is nominated as part of her ensemble. All but Zengel are nominated for the corresponding Oscar. Bakalova (as a lead), Close, Colman, and Zengel were all nominated for Golden Globes but lost to Rosamund Pike and Jodie Foster, respectively, while Bakalova defeated all but Zengel at the Critics Choice Awards. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.
Who should win? None of these performances are at the top of my list. I think I’d choose Bakalova or Youn.
Who will win? This should safely be Bakalova, but who knows.
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