Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress

I’m offering winner predictions in all categories for the Oscars as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Actress.

Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

I’m offering predictions in all categories for the Oscar nominations as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Actress.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

The competition: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

Previous winners: Frances McDormand, Renee Zellweger, Olivia Colman, Frances McDormand, Emma Stone, Brie Larson, Julianne Moore, Cate Blanchett
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: The only first-time nominee in this race is Stewart, who also represents the lone nomination for her film. Kidman won in 2002 for “The Hours” and this marks her fifth nod, with additional bids for “Moulin Rouge,” “Rabbit Hole,” and “Lion.” This is the fourth nomination for Cruz, who won in 2008 for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” and was also cited for “Volver” and “Nine.” Colman won on her first try in 2018 for “The Favourite” and was nominated again last year for “The Father.” Chastain was nominated in 2011 and 2012 for “The Help” and “Zero Dark Thirty,” respectively. None of these films are up for Best Picture. The precursor season has been very divided with inconsistent nominees. Chastain won at SAG and the Critics Choice Awards, while Kidman took home the Golden Globe, but Stewart and Cruz sat some of those competitions out.

Who should win: Chastain
Who will win: I had been sticking with Stewart for so long, but after her SAG snub and then her loss at the Critics Choice Awards to apparent new frontrunner Chastain, I think I’m officially switching over to the latter. Like last year, anyone could theoretically win here, but it’s likely Chastain is ahead of the rest.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Jessica Chastain, Olivia Colman, Penélope Cruz, Nicole Kidman, Kristen Stewart

Having the nominees announced in alphabetical order can be a comforting – or distressing – thing depending on the circumstances, and in this case I was very relieved to hear Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) called first since I had expected her to get snubbed. Others were likely thrilled that Kristen Stewart (Spencer) made the cut, bouncing back from SAG and BAFTA snubs and getting in over Lady Gaga, who made both those lists. The other surprising inclusion was Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), who did get some good buzz but didn’t have much precursor support. It’s a shame that Alana Haim, whose film underperformed in a major way, couldn’t get in, while two expected and worthwhile performances, Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) and Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) round out the list. It’s interesting to point out that none of these films are up for Best Picture, and aside from Stewart, who is her film’s only nomination, each has only one or two other bids.

My current bet to win: With Gaga out of the race, I’m going to default back to Stewart, though this is going to be a very competitive category.

Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Viola Davis, Andra Day, Vanessa Kirby, Frances McDormand, Carey Mulligan

This year’s locks: Olivia Colman

Very likely: Lady Gaga, Nicole Kidman

Possible: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim, Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Hudson, Rachel Zegler

Unlikely: Tessa Thompson, Penélope Cruz, Renate Reinsve, Emilia Jones

The rundown: It’s easy to think this category is in complete chaos after seeing the BAFTA lineup, but it’s important to remember that only Frances McDormand, who won both prizes, translated to this race last year. The SAG snub for presumed frontrunner Kristen Stewart (Spencer) is much more alarming, though I still think she can get in since her awards season performance leading up to that point was very strong. Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) seems like the surest thing, and it’s important to note that she also missed last year with BAFTA despite “The Father” otherwise doing well. The lone Globe-SAG-BAFTA nominee is Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), who’s probably safe even if her film isn’t, and I think Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) is fine too because her first has only gained momentum. I think that Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), who did manage a BAFTA bid, will grab the fifth slot, which sadly means that there’s no room for Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and would make the second time she got snubbed after hitting most of the precursors following “A Most Violent Year.” SAG added an actress who was favored to win this race earlier this year before missing with most groups, Jennifer Hudson (Respect), and it’s also possible that Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) rides a wave of nominations for her film. Tessa Thompson (Passing) and Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World) scored BAFTA nominations, but I don’t think their films will be received warmly enough, and the same goes for Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), who might have had a better shot if her film had been submitted by Spain for Best International Feature.

For your consideration: I was delighted to see Emilia Jones (CODA) earn a BAFTA nomination, but I think that she’s not as well-known as the other contenders in this category and that her being British is what helped her there. What a wonderful inclusion that would be though!

Forecasted winner: Who knows? If she gets nominated, I think Stewart could still win.

AFT Awards: Best Actress in a Leading Role

This is the second category of the 14th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. I’m drawing only from films that were either released or playing at a film festival in the 2020 calendar year. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them.. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Laure Calamy (My Donkey, My Lover and I), Kiera Allen (Run), Zora Howard (Premature), Emily Skeggs (Dinner in America), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Jessie Buckley (I'm Thinking of Ending Things), Jo Ellen Pellman (The Prom), Madeline Grey DeFreece (Tahara), Rachel Brosnahan (I'm Your Woman), Saltanat Nauruz (Welcome to the USA), Sarah Paulson (Run), Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead), Sophie Hawkshaw (Ellie and Abbie (and Ellie’s Dead Aunt)), Tessa Thompson (Sylvie's Love), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Runners-up:
Avigail Harari (Honeymood)
Aubrey Plaza (Black Bear)
Radha Blank (The 40-Year-Old Version)
Alena Yiv (Asia)
Cristin Milioti (Palm Springs)

The winner:
Clare Dunne (Herself) delivered a wonderfully endearing portrait of a young mother desperate to do whatever she could to protect her family. You can watch my great interview with her here.

Other nominees:
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Anne Celestino Mota (Alice Junior)
Lola Petticrew (Dating Amber)
Micaela Ramazzotti (The Best Years)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

The competition: Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

Previous winners: Renee Zellweger, Olivia Colman, Frances McDormand, Emma Stone, Brie Larson, Julianne Moore, Cate Blanchett, Jennifer Lawrence
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: McDormand has won this award twice, in 2017 for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” and in 1996 for “Fargo.” She has three additional previous nominations, all in the supporting category, for “North Country,” “Almost Famous,” and “Mississippi Burning.” She is also nominated as a producer on her film this year. Davis won an Oscar in 2016 for “Fences” and was nominated before that for “The Help” and “Doubt.” Mulligan has contended once before, for “An Education” in 2009. This is the first nomination for both Day and Kirby. Only McDormand and Mulligan’s films are nominated for Best Picture.

This may well be the most interesting and unpredictable category of the year. Day won the Golden Globe, beating the other four nominees, but wasn’t even nominated by SAG. Mulligan won the Critics Choice prize, and Davis triumphed at SAG. Only McDormand and Kirby are nominated at BAFTA, which hands out its awards this weekend. I can’t find another historical instance of such discord between groups. When Sharon Stone and Isabelle Huppert won Globes and then weren’t nominated by SAG, they ended up losing the Oscar. This category is anyone’s guess!

Who should win: Mulligan
Who will win: I would be genuinely shocked if it was Kirby given the lack of other support for her film, but any of the other four could easily win. Though I’d love to see Mulligan, I think Day is going to win this.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 5/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Viola Davis, Andra Day, Vanessa Kirby, Frances McDormand, Carey Mulligan

No surprises here, and just like last year, this is the exact Golden Globes list for drama actress, dismissing SAG addition Amy Adams and subbing back in Globe winner Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), who managed to get in despite missing at SAG and her film having no other support. Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) is also completely alone, while Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) was one of the stars of a film that didn’t score as well as it could have today. The other two nominees, who will fight it out with Day for the win - Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) – saw their films perform about as expected without making it into too many technical categories to indicate overwhelming support. Regardless of how their films did, this is a fine list, though I would have loved to see Zendaya make the cut.

My current bet to win: I’m going to back Day though it would be great if Mulligan could pull it off.

Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Cynthia Erivo, Scarlett Johansson, Saiorse Ronan, Charlize Theron, Renee Zellweger

This year’s locks: Frances McDormand, Viola Davis, Frances McDormand

Very likely: Vanessa Kirby

Possible: Andra Day, Zendaya, Amy Adams

Unlikely: Sophia Loren, Nicole Beharie, Sidney Flanigan, Rosamund Pike

The rundown: This category is an interesting one because four of the nominees seem completely set and the fifth one is – or was – more up in the air. There’s no scenario in which Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) don’t make the cut. The same goes for Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman), though her past awards history isn’t quite as formidable. It’s conceivable that Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) could be left off because no one is talking about her movie, but I think she’s safe. Even after she won the Golden Globe, I would have said that Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), who missed out on a SAG bid, was not going to get nominated, but then I went ahead and did some research for a Globe-win-no-SAG-yes-Oscar piece for AwardsWatch, and it’s overwhelmingly true that such individuals DO end up getting nominated. I would have loved to see Zendaya (Malcolm and Marie) get the fifth spot, but she doesn’t have much to suggest buzz aside from a Critics Choice nomination. Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy) did end up on the SAG list, but that mention feels like Hilary Swank’s non-Oscar inclusion for “Conviction.” Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) might be looking better if she had scored a Globe nomination or her film had been submitted by Italy in the Best International Feature category. Nicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth) and Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always) wouldn’t be shocking choices, though they’re not likely to garner enough support at this point. It would be even more startling as her Globe victory, but Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot) obviously impressed some people and shouldn’t be counted out entirely.

For your consideration: I was blown away by Clare Dunne (Herself) in a movie that doesn’t seem to be Amazon’s number one campaign interest. Watch my interview with her here – I wish she had more of a shot.

Forecasted winner: I’m very tentatively picking Mulligan though I think that McDormand or even Day might be likelier.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

The competition: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)

Previous winners: Olivia Colman, Frances McDormand, Emma Stone, Brie Larson, Julianne Moore, Cate Blanchett, Jennifer Lawrence, Meryl Streep
My winner: Holliday Grainger (Animals)
The facts: Zellweger won in 2003 for “Cold Mountain” on her third consecutive nomination after “Bridget Jones’ Diary” and “Chicago.” Theron also won that year, for “Monster,” and was nominated again in 2005 for “North Country.” Ronan has been cited before in 2007 for “Atonement,” in 2015 for “Brooklyn,” and in 2017 for “Lady Bird.” This is the first nomination for Erivo and Johansson, both of whom have another bid this year: Erivo for her song “Stand Up” and Johansson for her supporting turn in “Jojo Rabbit.” Golden Globe comedy winner Awkwafina is not nominated. Only Johansson and Ronan’s films are nominated for Best Picture. Zellweger, whose film has one other bid, for makeup and hairstyling, has won every precursor.

Who should win: Zellweger or Johansson
Who will win: No one else has momentum to defeat Zellweger.

AFT Awards: Best Actress in a Leading Role

This is the second category of the 13th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them and drawn from a pool of approximately 233 films. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Adèle Haenel (Portrait of a Lady on Fire), Alexi Pappas (Olympic Dreams), Avigail Kovari (Red Cow), Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart), Carol Duarte (Invisible Life), Julia Stockler (Invisible Life), Kaitlyn Dever (Booksmart), Mia Wasikowska (Judy and Punch), Natalia Dyer (Yes, God, Yes), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Tiffany Chu (Ms. Purple)

Runners-up:
Anna Margaret Hollyman (Sister Aimee)
Tatiana Maslany (Pink Wall)
Emma Thompson (Late Night)
Stav Strashko (Flawless)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)

The winner:
Holliday Grainger (Animals) delivered a fully unhinged and then appropriately retrospective performance as a partier who never gave being serious a second thought.

Other nominees:
Jessie Buckley (Wild Rose)
Maya Erskine (Plus One)
Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Awkwafina (The Farewell)

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5, picking Lupita Nyong’o over Ronan
My ballot: Come back later this week!
The nominees: Cynthia Erivo, Scarlett Johansson, Saoirse Ronan, Charlize Theron, Renee Zellweger

This category, like Best Actor, dismisses a SAG addition – Lupita Nyong’o in this case – and reverts back entirely to Globe nominees, which happens to be only the drama list. I wasn’t gung-ho for Nyong’o, but I’m most disappointed to see Awkwafina (The Farewell) and her entire film left off. Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) and Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) are both in films that managed a respectable if unspectacular given the possibilities six nominations, while the other three - Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), and Renee Zellweger (Judy) – all saw their films earn just one or two additional bids. I would have been thrilled to see someone like BAFTA nominee Jessie Buckley (Wild Rose) here, but such creative thinking seems destined for a future year instead.

My current bet to win: I think this goes to Zellweger.

Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Yalitza Aparicio, Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, Lady Gaga, Melissa McCarthy

This year’s locks: Renee Zellweger, Scarlett Johansson, Charlize Theron

Very likely: Cynthia Erivo

Possible: Lupita Nyong’o, Awkwafina, Saoirse Ronan

Unlikely: Alfre Woodard

The rundown: This is a pretty contained race, one that has seven women competing with one waiting in the wings and likely too late to stage a surprise appearance. Golden Globe winner Renee Zellweger (Judy) is the surest thing, and I certainly hope that Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) won’t fall victim to a shocking snub, though I’m worried that may be the case. Charlize Theron (Bombshell) seems set for a bid as well, as does Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), though less universal support for her film could lead to her missing out. Lupita Nyong’o (Us) didn’t score a Globe nomination but made the SAG list, and that seems likely to earn her a spot here. Awkwafina (The Farewell) missed with SAG but could rebound after her expected Globe win. Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) made the Globe list without her film and then was omitted by SAG, and so it seems like this may not earn her a fourth nomination at age twenty-five. These seven make up the Critics Choice list, and it’s still possible that one woman not cited there – Alfre Woodard (Clemency) – could show up, though the film hasn’t been showing up as strongly as it should have, which makes sense given its very late release.

One possible crazy scenario: If her film makes a surprise appearance in other races, which it could, Adele Haenel (Portrait of a Lady on Fire) might earn a wholly unexpected bid here.

Forecasted winner: It seems like Zellweger will win here.

AFT Awards: Best Actress in a Leading Role

This is the second category of the 12th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them and drawn from a pool of approximately 200 films. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Alia Shawkat (Duck Butter), Cami Morrone (Never Goin' Back), Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman), Elvire Emanuelle (First Match), Glenn Close (The Wife), Maia Mitchell (Never Goin' Back), Vera Farmiga (Boundaries)

Runners-up:
Keira Knightley (Colette)
Rose Byrne (Juliet, Naked)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Jessica Barden (The New Romantic)
Kiersey Clemons (Hearts Beat Loud)

The winner:
Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace) conveyed exceptional maturity as a young girl raised by a father eager to be removed from society, negotiating natural impulses for human companionship with a loyalty to her parent.

Other nominees:
Mary Elizabeth Winstead (All About Nina) grabbed the microphone in her film and took full control, inviting audiences along to watch the incredible rollercoaster of her professional and personal life. Rachel Weisz (The Favourite), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), and Emma Stone (The Favourite) shared the spotlight as three women who all used each other for different things, fashioning the hilarious and wicked environment around them with their truly terrific turns.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

The competition: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Glenn Close (The Wife), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Lady Gaga (A Star is Born), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Previous winners: Frances McDormand, Emma Stone, Brie Larson, Julianne Moore, Cate Blanchett, Jennifer Lawrence, Meryl Streep
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Aparicio joins a small list of actresses who have received an Oscar nomination for their debut film performances. Only the likes of Barbra Streisand and Julie Andrews managed to win. She is also contending for a foreign-language performance, which last led to victory for Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose” in 2007. Close has six previous nominations, five in the 1980s and one in 2011 for “Albert Nobbs.” Gaga was nominated for writing a song for “The Hunting Ground” in 2016 and also contends for the very popular song “Shallow” from her film this year. McCarthy was nominated in 2011 for “Bridesmaids.” This is Colman’s first nomination. Unlike the Best Actor category, this award more frequently goes to actresses who aren’t stars of Best Picture nominees, like Julianne Moore in 2014 and Cate Blanchett in 2013. Close won the Globe and the SAG, and tied with Gaga for the Critics’ Choice Award. Colman won the comedy Globe.

Who should win: This is actually a very solid list, and I wouldn’t find any of them undeserving. McCarthy made an impressive transition to drama with this role, remaining funny and still believable. Aparicio was formidable in her film debut. Close was a tour de force who completely sold her character. Gaga embodied her ingénue’s wondrous worldview. Colman is my favorite, however, leaning into the hilarity of her manipulated monarch.
Who will win: McCarthy is really the only one without a shot. Colman might have been most poised for an upset before Aparicio joined the race without participating in most of the precursors. They’re the stars of the most-nominated films this year and will clearly have fans, and might have been able to benefit from a vote-split had Gaga fared better earlier this awards season. The fact remains that Close still hasn’t won an Oscar, and I think voters will reward her for an incredible career.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Emily Blunt’s magical nanny (Mary Poppins Returns), Glenn Close’s loyal spouse (The Wife), Olivia Colman’s manipulated monarch (The Favourite), Lady Gaga’s musical newcomer (A Star is Born), Melissa McCarthy’s professional forger (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

For your information: Close was nominated in 2011 for “Albert Nobbs,” four times for her TV role on “Damages,” along with three other TV bids, one of which resulted in a win, for “The Lion in Winter” in 2004. McCarthy was nominated in 2011 both individually and as part of the ensemble in “Bridesmaids.” Blunt was nominated in 2016 for “The Girl on the Train” and also contends in the supporting actress category this year, though she is the only one in this race not nominated for an Oscar. This is the first nomination for both Colman and Gaga. Only Gaga is nominated as part of her ensemble. Colman and Close won Golden Globes, while Gaga and Close tied for the Critics’ Choice Award. All but six times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.

Who should win? This is a great list. Blunt played her role well, and Close and McCarthy were both engaging. I’m all for Gaga, but I think I’d choose Colman.

Who will win? I think it’s safe to say Close though it could just as easily be Gaga or Colman.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 5/5
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Glenn Close (The Wife), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Lady Gaga (A Star is Born), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

This is my second year in a row with a perfect score in this category. I knew there wasn’t any way that Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) wasn’t making it in when her costar showed up with a surprising bid, and her film managed to tie as the nominations leader with that of another nominee here, Olivia Colman (The Favourite). Emily Blunt might eventually be nominated for an Oscar, but this wasn’t her year despite two high-profile performances that ended up netting her films a grand combined total of five nominations. Glenn Close (The Wife) and Lady Gaga (A Star is Born) still look good as rivals for Best Actress, and, despite early concerns about her omission from this category, Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) arrives with her film carrying exactly the nominations everyone always expected it would.

My current bet to win: For the moment, I’m actually going to lean Colman, but we’ll see how SAG plays out.

Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 22nd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Sally Hawkins, Frances McDormand, Margot Robbie, Saoirse Ronan, Meryl Streep

My choices: Coming in February!

This year’s locks: Lady Gaga, Glenn Close, Olivia Colman

Very likely: Melissa McCarthy

Possible: Yalitza Aparicio, Emily Blunt, Toni Collette

Unlikely: Nicole Kidman, Elsie Fisher, Viola Davis, Rosamund Pike, Regina Hall

The rundown: The surprise Golden Globe win earlier this week for Glenn Close (The Wife) makes her a sure thing, joining the expected winner that she defeated, Lady Gaga (A Star is Born). Another Globe victor, Olivia Colman (The Favourite) is just as much of a lock at this point. Though early awards returns made Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) look like she might miss out here, it seems like she’ll be fine now. For the fifth slot, there are a whole lot of contenders. The strongest bet might seem like Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns), who picked up Globe, SAG, and Critics’ Choice bids, as well as a second bid for “A Quiet Place” from SAG. Globe nominees Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) and Rosamund Pike (A Private War) will garner some votes without separate enthusiasm for their films, while another Globe nominee, fifteen-year-old Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade), could show up with her film if it makes an appearance. Regina Hall (Support the Girls) has picked up a handful of critics’ awards for her small film, and is likely to get some Oscar votes too. Watch out also for Critics’ Choice nominee Toni Collette (Hereditary), whose only previous Oscar bid came for another horror movie, “The Sixth Sense,” and she showed up then with pretty much no precursor support at all. I’m putting my money behind Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), the breakout star of the film that I still think will win Best Picture. Her debut performance has been praised extensively, earning her a Critics’ Choice mention and other nominations, and I think she’ll end up being nominee number five. Viola Davis (Widows) and her film have missed out with almost every awards body, but somehow she managed to get nominated for a BAFTA over her film’s British director and three prominent British costars, so it’s fair to assume that the recent Oscar winner has some supporters, though not likely enough to crack this list, something I and others were sure she would do right before her film was released.

One possible crazy scenario: Those who have been decrying category fraud all season are rewarded with either two or three shocking nominations for one movie here, promoting either Emma Stone (The Favourite) or Rachel Weisz (The Favourite), or both, to this race.

Forecasted winner: Close’s win at the Globes make it seem like she’s going to get the Oscar now, but I’m still backing Lady Gaga.

SAG Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5, missing Blunt
Who’s missing? Viola Davis (Widows), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Rosamund Pike (A Private War), Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)

Well, that’s it for Davis and her film. It’s missed too many places, and unlike others that have triumphed at the last minute, this one has been out for weeks. Instead, late-breaking buzz for Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns) has resulted in her being a double nominee. I’m seeing the film on opening night one week from tonight and look forward to sharing thoughts. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) seems to be safe, as does Glenn Close (The Wife), and Olivia Colman (The Favourite) made the cut along with her two supporting costars despite an unfortunate snub for the ensemble. Rounding out the list is Lady Gaga (A Star is Born), representing one of four mentions for her film, keeping her as the frontrunner here, in my opinion. Barring a big surprise, this will be the Oscar list.

Who will win? I’m going with Gaga.

SAG Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

Last year’s nominees: Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul), Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)

The three frontrunners here are Lady Gaga (A Star is Born), Glenn Close (The Wife), and Olivia Colman (The Favourite). I think that Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) is safe after scoring a Golden Globe nomination, and it’s just a question of who might join her. Drama nominees Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) and Rosamund Pike (A Private War) are possible, and the only real threat from the comedy categories is Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns). Other possibilities include Viola Davis (Widows), Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Toni Collette (Hereditary), Kathryn Hahn (Private Life), and Saoirse Ronan (Mary, Queen of Scots). I’m going with Davis but I think it might also be Blunt or someone much more surprising.

Current predictions:
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Viola Davis (Widows)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)