Fresh Globe-to-Oscar Stats

In lieu of a Monday Oscar Odds edition this week, head over to The Film Experience to read my piece on what some of the Golden Globe wins do and don't mean for Oscar chances. A few catch-up movie reviews will be posted over the next few days, completing my screening of the finalists for Best Documentary, Best Foreign Film, and Best Original Score. Oscar predictions begin with multiple categories per day this Thursday, addressing Globe fallout and all the various guild nominations announced today or later this week. Stay tuned!

Final Golden Globe Winner Predictions

The Golden Globes are tonight, and I’m more prepared than I’ve ever been. I didn’t bother to see “Dumplin’,” but I have listened to its nominated song many times and have developed an affinity for it. Otherwise, I’ve seen everything, and here’s where it all stands.

Last year, the Best Motion Picture – Drama race was wide open, and the unexpected winner went on to lose the Best Picture Oscar. This year, “A Star is Born” seems completely safe, whereas “Roma,” which is ineligible for the top prize here and nominated instead for Best Foreign Film, is its likeliest competition at the Oscars. I’d love to see “If Beale Street Could Talk” pull off a surprise victory after it ended up being the only film recognized in that category to get snubbed by the Producers Guild when they announced their nominees, but I don’t see that happening. If anything is going to beat the frontrunner, it’s “Black Panther.”

The Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical race, on the other hand, is wide open in a way that it hasn’t been since 2014, and not really since 2009 before that. “Crazy Rich Asians” triumphing would be a shock, and “Mary Poppins Returns” isn’t likely either. But the other three all stand a solid chance of victory. I’m hoping it won’t be “Vice,” but it is the nominations leader, which means Globe voters obviously liked it. The popular choice is “Green Book,” but I’m predicting “The Favourite.” All three are expected to be Oscar Best Picture nominees, the largest representation from this category since 2013, where four out of five films here ended up on that list. The only one that’s not certain is “Vice,” and a win here could cement its chances.

The big question is whether “Roma” performs almost as strongly as it can, winning Best Foreign Film and Best Director. If it manages to win Best Screenplay, then I’d say that Oscar race is all sewn up. Likelier, one of the comedy contenders will triumph there instead. My predictions have “A Star is Born” and “The Favourite” each taking three awards home. I’m betting on Mahershala Ali and Regina King, who wasn’t nominated by SAG, to win the supporting trophies, though I remember picking Christopher Plummer and Laurie Metcalf last year before Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney began their awards season marathons. If it’s Richard E. Grant and Amy Adams, then we’ll probably expect to see them triumph again and again the same way.

Let’s hope for some excitement! Check out my predictions below and leave your thoughts in the comments! Full analysis can be found by clicking on category headings. Head over to TVwithAbe.com for TV categories.

Best Motion Picture - Drama
A Star is Born

Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
The Favourite

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Christian Bale (Vice)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Best Animated Feature Film
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Foreign Language Film
Roma

Best Director - Motion Picture
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
The Favourite

Best Original Score - Motion Picture
First Man

Best Original Song - Motion Picture
“Shallow” (A Star is Born)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The competition:
Crazy Rich Asians is directed by John M. Chu, marking his sixth feature film. Actress Constance Yu is also nominated for her performance.

The Favourite is directed by Yorgos Lanthimos, marking his seventh feature film. The screenplay and all three actresses are also nominated.

Green Book is directed by Peter Farrelly, who co-directed a 1998 nominee in this category, “There’s Something About Mary.” This is his thirteen film. It contends for its direction, screenplay, and stars Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali.

Mary Poppins Returns is directed by Rob Marshall, marking his sixth film and his fourth nominated in this category. “Chicago” won in 2002. Stars Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel Miranda are nominated along with the film’s score. The original “Mary Poppins” was a contender in this category in 1964.

Vice is directed by Adam McKay, marking his seventh film and his second film honored in this category after “The Big Short” in 2015. This film is the nominations leader, contending for its direction, screenplay, and three of its stars.

Additional notes: The winner of this award has gone on to be nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture ten times in the past fifteen years, triumphing there just once in 2011 with “The Artist.” A directing nomination isn’t crucial for a win here but it does help. The only sequel I can find that was nominated, “Toy Story 2,” ended up winning.
What should win? I was more annoyed than anything else with “Vice,” and I hope it doesn’t win. I wasn’t wowed by “Mary Poppins Returns,” and don’t think it’s worthy of being grouped with these films. “Crazy Rich Asians” was fun but hardly the best comedy of the year. “Green Book” and “The Favourite” are both pretty much on par for me as excellent choices, and I’d be very happy with either, even if the latter might excite me a bit more.
What will win? It’s a tough call, since there are three distinct possibilities here. I think that The Favourite will ultimately win out over the two films that received director bids, “Green Book” and “Vice,” both of which could easily prevail.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Drama

The competition:
BlacKkKlansman is directed by Spike Lee, marking his twenty-third film. It also contends for Best Director and stars John David Washington and Adam Driver.

Black Panther is directed by Ryan Coogler, marking his third feature film. The first superhero movie nominated in this category also contends for Best Original Score and Best Original Song.

Bohemian Rhapsody is directed by Bryan Singer, marking his tenth film, though he was actually fired before its completion. Star Rami Malek represents the film’s only other nomination.

If Beale Street Could Talk is directed by Barry Jenkins, whose last film “Moonlight” won this award two years ago. This is his third film. It also contends for Best Screenplay and for supporting actress Regina King.

A Star is Born is the directorial debut of Bradley Cooper, who is nominated for his direction and his performance, along with Lady Gaga for her performance and the film’s signature song.

Additional notes: The winner of this award has gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture only five times in the past fifteen years, and only three times in the entire history of the Globes, most recently in 1963, has the winner been snubbed altogether at the Oscars. The 1976 version of “A Star is Born” won the Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical award. As far as I can tell, a remake has never won this prize, though a sequel did in 2003 – “The Return of the King.”
What should win? I didn’t love “BlacKkKlansman,” and I liked “A Star is Born” even if I wasn’t as gung-ho about it as most. I think I liked “Bohemian Rhapsody” a whole lot more than most critics. I’d be happy with either “Black Panther” or “If Beale Street Could Talk,” both very different but exciting and worthwhile choices.
What will win? Barring a jaw-dropping victory for “Black Panther,” this is going to A Star is Born.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

The competition:
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) directs his twenty-third film, which earns him his second career bid in this category after contending here and for writing “Do the Right Thing” in 1989. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and for performances by stars John David Washington and Adam Driver.

Peter Farrelly (Green Book) directs his thirteenth film, which earns him his first nomination, along with a bid for the film’s screenplay. His film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and for performances by stars Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali. Farrelly co-directed previous Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical contender “There’s Something About Mary” from 1998.

Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) directs his eighth film, returning to this category after a win in 2013 for “Gravity.” He is also nominated for the film’s screenplay and for Best Foreign Film, a category in which he contended in 2001 for “Y Tu Mama Tambien.”

Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) makes his directorial debut, earning him his first bid in this category. He is also nominated for his performance in the film, adding to his two previous acting nominations for “American Hustle” and “Silver Linings Playbook.” His film contends for Best Motion Picture – Drama, star Lady Gaga, and its signature song.

Adam McKay (Vice) directs his seventh film, earning him his first bid in this category. He also contends for the film’s screenplay, his second nomination in that category after “The Big Short” in 2015, which was up for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical that year. His film is the nominations leader at the Globes this year, in the running for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and its three main stars’ performances.

Additional notes: The winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar nine times out of the past fifteen years, with only Ben Affleck missing out on a nomination altogether. Five of the last fifteen years, the film that won in this category did not also win the top film prize. Foreign film directors triumphed two out of the last three times they were nominated in this category.
Who should win? I don’t think McKay belongs here, mostly because of how exaggerated and obnoxious his film often feels. Lee brings his signature style to his film, which didn’t wow me the way it impressed others. Cooper did a great job framing a film in which he starred, and I wouldn’t be disappointed to see him take the award. Farrelly’s movie flows well and he does a good job keeping it interesting. Cuaron, however, is the one who truly captures the art of storytelling with his black-and-white ode to an era.
Who will win? Given the foreign film statistics for this category and the love for his film, I think that Cuaron is safely ahead of Cooper.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition:
The Favourite was written by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, both first-time nominees. The film also contends for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and all three of its stars.

Green Book was written by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, and Peter Farrelly, all first-time nominees. Farrelly also contends for Best Director, and the film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and both of its stars.

If Beale Street Could Talk was written by Barry Jenkins, a previous nominee in this category and for Best Director in 2016 for “Moonlight.” His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and for supporting actress Regina King.

Roma was written by Alfonso Cuaron, who is also nominated this year for Best Director. He won that award in 2013 for “Gravity.” His film is also nominated for Best Foreign Film, a prize he previously contended for with “Y Tu Mama Tambien” in 2001, this year.

Vice was written by Adam McKay, who is also nominated this year for Best Director and who contended in this category in 2015 for “The Big Short.” His film is the nominations leader with six total bids, including Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical.

Additional notes: The winner of this category has gone on to win one of the two corresponding Oscar prizes ten times in the past fifteen years, and only once in that time has ended up being snubbed altogether. Only once in recent history has a foreign film been nominated in this race, and that was 2007 nominee “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.” A Best Director nomination isn’t crucial here to a win, but it does help.
What should win? I have plenty of issues with “Vice,” which I don’t think should necessarily be here, and much as I really liked “Roma,” I’m not sure its screenplay was worthy of particular commendation. “Green Book” is delightful and entertaining, and “If Beale Street Could Talk” is beautifully written. The script that truly sparkled was “The Favourite,” full of fantastic lines and a superb narrative.
What will win? I’m going to optimistically pick The Favourite though I’m worried about “Vice” taking it instead.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Original Song

The competition:
All the Stars (Black Panther) was written by Kendrick Lamar, Al Shux, Sounwave, SZA, and Anthony Tiffith. This is the first nomination for all involved. The film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and Best Original Score.

Girl in the Movies (Dumplin’) was written by Dolly Parton and Linda Perry. Parton was previously nominated in this category for songs from “Transamerica” in 2005 and from “Nine to Five” in 1980, when she also earned bids for acting and New Star of the Year – Female, and one additional acting bid for “The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas” in 1982. This is the film’s only nomination.

Requiem for a Private War (A Private War) was written by Annie Lennox, who won this award in 2003 for her song from “The Return of the King.” The film is also nominated for Best Actress is a Motion Picture – Drama.

Revelation (Boy Erased) was written by Jon Thor Birgisson, Brett McLaughlin, and Troye Sivan. This is the first nomination for all involved. The film is also nominated for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama.

Shallow (A Star is Born) was written by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, and Andrew Wyatt. Gaga is also nominated for acting in the film, and won a TV award in 2015 for “American Horror Story.” The film also contends for Best Motion Picture – Drama and for director and actor Bradley Cooper.

Additional notes: Only “Requiem for a Private War” missed the fifteen-wide finalist list for the corresponding Oscar category. The winner of this award has gone on to win the Oscar six times out of the past fifteen years, though seven of the remaining times the winner wasn’t even nominated there. Mary J. Blige and Bjork were nominated in 2017 and 2000, respectively, for acting and songwriting, and in both cases, neither won.
What should win? These are all good choices. I got on board with the slow beat of “Girl in the Movies” after listening to it a few times, but none of these compare to the film-defining “Shallow.”
What will win? Dolly Parton could surprise, but Shallow should be far enough ahead of everything else.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Original Score

The competition:
Black Panther was composed by Ludwig Göransson, marking his first nomination. The film also contends for Best Motion Picture – Drama and Best Original Song. This is Göransson’s third collaboration with director Ryan Coogler.

First Man was composed by Justin Hurwitz, who won this award and the Best Original Song prize two years ago for “La La Land.” The film also contends for Best Supporting Actress. This is Hurwitz’s fourth collaboration with director Damien Chazelle.

Isle of Dogs was composed by Alexandre Desplat, who won this award last year for “The Shape of Water.” He has eight other previous nominations, including a win for “The Painted Veil” for 2006. The film also contends for Best Animated Film. This is his fourth collaboration with director Wes Anderson.

Mary Poppins Returns was composed by Marc Shaiman, who earned his first nomination last year for Best Original Song for “The Star.” His film also contends for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and stars Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel Miranda. He has five Oscar nominations for his score and song work. This is his first collaboration with director Rob Marshall.

A Quiet Place was composed by Marco Beltrami, who earns his first nomination this year and his film’s only mention. The score dominates a film that features very little dialogue. This is his first collaboration with director John Krasinski.

Additional notes: The winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar ten times in the past fifteen years, failing to receive a nomination just three times. All five of these scores made the fiteen-wide finalist list for this year’s Oscar category. Musicals have only won this award twice since Disney animated films dominated in the early 1990s.
What should win? I’m not sure that “Mary Poppins Returns” needed to be here, and there are some positive qualities of the “A Quiet Place” score that make me understand why it was nominated. “Isle of Dogs” is classic Desplat/Anderson material, and a fine choice. “Black Panther” would be a cool pick, but nothing in this race compares to “First Man” for me.
What will win? I’m not sure. I’m going to pick First Man with “Black Panther” as a possible spoiler.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Foreign Language Film

The competition:
Capernaum (Lebanon) is directed by Nadine Labaki, marking her third feature film and first Golden Globe nomination. This is Lebanon’s first nomination as well.

Girl (Belgium) is directed by Lukas Dhont, marking his feature film debut. Belgium has been nominated five times before in this category, winning in 1994 and 1997 for “Farinelli” and “My Life in Pink.”

Never Look Away (Germany) is directed by Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck, marking his third film. He was nominated in this category in 2006 for his directorial debut, “The Lives of Others.” Germany has fourteen nominations since 1990, with twelve mentions before that for West Germany. Germany has won three times, in 1991 for “Europa Europa,” in 2009 for “The White Ribbon,” and last year for “In the Fade.”

Roma (Mexico) is directed by Alfonso Cuaron, marking his eighth film. He is also nominated for Best Director and Best Screenplay. He was previously nominated in this category in 2001 for “Y Tu Mama Tambien,” and took home the Best Director prize in 2013 for “Gravity.” Mexico has been nominated eight times previously but has yet to win.

Shoplifters (Japan) is directed by Hirokazu Koreeda, marking his thirteenth narrative film. This is his first Golden Globe nomination. Japan has been nominated ten times previously, and its only win comes from additional citation for co-producing the American-made Clint Eastwood film “Letters from Iwo Jima” in 2006.

Additional notes: Of these five, only “Girl” missed the finalist list for the Oscar race. The past two winners of this award, “In the Fade” and “Elle,” both went on to miss the list on nine finalists for the Oscar, and only six winners in this category have gone on to win the Oscar in the past fifteen years. Every time a film nominated here has also contended for Best Director, it’s taken home this prize, most recently with “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,” “Letters from Iwo Jima,” and “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.”
What should win? I had lots of problems with “Girl,” and it definitely shouldn’t take home this prize. “Never Look Away,” which runs three hours and nine minutes, isn’t nearly as good as its director’s first film. “Shoplifters” is worthwhile and would be a decent choice here. I really liked “Capernaum” and “Roma” and would be happy with either.
What will win? The only movie that could have taken down Roma would have been “Cold War,” which wasn’t even nominated. This is one of the only sure things this year.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Animated Film

The competition:
Incredibles 2 comes from Pixar, a studio that has dominated this category with eight wins since its inception in 2006. Director Brad Bird took home this award in 2007 for “Ratatouille.” The original film in the series was released in 2004 and was nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical before taking home Oscars for Best Animated Feature and Best Sound Editing.

Isle of Dogs comes from American Empirical Pictures, which won this award in 2009 for “Fantastic Mr. Fox,” and Indian Paintbrush, which won Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical for “The Grand Budapest Hotel” in 2014. Both films come from director Wes Anderson, who also helmed past Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical nominee “Moonrise Kingdom.” This film is also nominated for Best Original Score.

Mirai comes from first-time nominee Studio Chizu and distributor GKIDS, a contender last year for “The Breadwinner.” This is the first Japanese-language film nominated for this award despite five Japanese films having contended for the corresponding Oscar.

Ralph Breaks the Internet comes from Walt Disney Animation Studios, which won this award for “Zootopia” in 2016. The original film in the series, “Wreck-It Ralph,” was nominated for this award in 2012, and co-director Rich Moore was honored in 2016 for his work on “Zootopia.”

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse comes from Columbia Pictures and Sony Pictures Animation, both of which have contended a number of times before, with the former sharing in a win for “The Adventures of Tintin” in 2011. It’s the first mention for Marvel Entertainment in the animation category after bids in other races for “Deadpool” two years ago.

Additional notes: Two out of four previously nominated sequels have won this award, though there has not been a year where two sequels have competed against each other.
What should win: These are honestly all great choices. I really enjoyed “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” but my vote goes to “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” which was terrific.
What will win: It could easily be “Incredibles 2” or “Isle of Dogs,” but I think recent release Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse has exactly the momentum it needs right now.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

The competition:
Amy Adams (Vice) plays former Second Lady Lynne Cheney. Her film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. Adams is also nominated for her TV work in “Sharp Objects” this year. She has seven previous nominations, with back-to-back wins in 2013 and 2014 for “American Hustle” and “Big Eyes,” respectively.

Claire Foy (First Man) plays Janet Shearon Armstrong, the wife of the first man to walk on the moon. Her film is also nominated for Best Original Score. Foy was nominated last year for her work on the TV show “The Crown” and won the year before that for the same performance.

Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) plays Sharon Rivers, a loyal mother trying to defend the father of her daughter’s baby from wrongful incarceration. Her film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama. She also contends this year for her TV work in “Seven Seconds.” The three-time Emmy winner was previously nominated for a Globe in 2015 for “American Crime.”

Emma Stone (The Favourite) plays Abigail Masham, a woman vying with her cousin for the affection of the queen. Her film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. Stone was nominated last year for “Battle of the Sexes,” won the year before that for “La La Land,” and was previously nominated for “Birdman” and “Easy A.”

Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) plays Sarah Churchill, a duchess vying with her cousin for the affection of the queen. Her film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. She won a Globe in 2005 for “The Constant Gardener” and was also nominated in 2012 for “The Deep Blue Sea.”

Additional notes: Adams, Stone, and Weisz all contend for individual SAG Awards. Four times in the past fifteen years, two actresses from one film have faced off, with only one instance resulting in one of them winning, when Melissa Leo beat Amy Adams for “The Fighter.” Only four times in the entire history of this category has the winner gone on not to be nominated for an Oscar, and the most recent time was more than forty years ago. All but five times in the past fifteen years, the winner of this category has also won the Oscar, and several of those instances involved different nominees and category placements.
Who should win? This is a great list. Adams and Foy were the standouts of their films, and King delivered a strong turn in hers as well. Though I might argue that they’re leads, both Stone and Weisz were terrific in their film. I think I’d choose the latter but both were really great.
Who will win? Despite her SAG snub, King is still the frontrunner.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

The competition:
Mahershala Ali (Green Book) plays renowned musician Don Shirley. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. He was previously nominated in this category in 2016 for “Moonlight,” a role that won him the Oscar.

Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) plays troubled addict Nic Sheff. He is the lone nominee from his film. He was nominated last year for his performance in “Call Me By Your Name.”

Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) plays Colorado Springs Detective Flip Zimmerman. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama. The three-time Emmy nominee for “Girls” earns his first Globe nomination for this role.

Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) plays author Jack Hock. His costar Melissa McCarthy is also nominated. This is his first Globe nomination.

Sam Rockwell (Vice) plays former President George Bush. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. He won this award last year for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

Additional notes: All but Rockwell are nominated for individual SAG Awards, and Driver also contends as part of his ensemble. Only once in the past forty years has the winner of this category gone on not to be nominated for an Oscar (Aaron Taylor-Johnson in 2016), and the victor here also claimed the Oscar all but four times in the past fifteen years.
Who should win? Chalamet didn’t impress me as much as he did in last year’s big film, and Driver wasn’t the standout of his film by any measure. Rockwell was funny but had an extremely limited role, which both Grant and Ali, my pick, totally dominate their films alongside their top-billed costars.
Who will win? This isn’t sewn up, but it will either be Grant or Ali, in part to make up for him not winning this award on his road to Oscar two years ago.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The competition:
Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns) plays the beloved magical nanny. Her film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. She has four previous film nominations, for “Into the Woods,” “Salmon Fishing in the Yemen,” “The Young Victoria,” and “The Devil Wears Prada,” and she won for her TV work in “Gideon’s Daughter.”

Olivia Colman (The Favourite) plays Queen Anne, a monarch balancing two women warring for her attention. Her film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. She won a Globe two years ago for her work in the limited series “The Night Manager.”

Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade) plays Kayla Day, an awkward teenager trying to get through life. She is the lone nominee for her film and earns her first Globe nomination at age fifteen.

Charlize Theron (Tully) plays Marlo Moreau, a pregnant mother of two. She is the lone nominee from her film. She won a Globe in 2003 for “Monster” and was nominated again for TV movie “The Life and Death of Peter Sellers” and films “North Country” and “Young Adult.”

Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians) plays Rachel Chu, the girlfriend of the heir to a fortune in Singapore. Her film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. This is her first nomination.

Additional notes: Blunt and Colman contend at the SAG Awards for their individual performances, and Wu as part of her ensemble. The winner of this award has gone on to be nominated for an Oscar all but twice in the past fifteen years, with two victors going on to win the Oscar.
Who should win? This is a fantastic list. Wu was wonderful in the least serious performance of this bunch. Fisher made a great and refreshing debut. Theron’s performance felt totally lived-in. Blunt was utterly convincing in a classic role. Colman gets my vote for her fabulous turn as a completely different type of queen than is usually portrayed in period costume pieces.
Who will win? The smart bet is probably Blunt, but I’m picking Colman.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The competition:
Christian Bale (Vice) plays former Vice President Dick Cheney. His film is the nominations leader, contending for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. Bale won a Globe in 2010 for “The Fighter” and was also nominated for his performances in “American Hustle” and “The Big Short.”

Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) plays lamplighter Jack. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. He was nominated in 2016 for his work on a song from “Moana.”

Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) plays driver Tony Vallelonga. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. He was previously nominated for his performances in “Captain Fantastic,” “A Dangerous Method,” and “Eastern Promises.”

Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun) plays older criminal Forrest Tucker. He is the lone nominee from his film. He actually only has one acting bid, for 2013’s “All is Lost,” but he won the Most Promising Newcomer – Male award in 1965, the World Film Favorite – Male prize three times in the 1970s, the Cecil B. DeMille Award in 1993, and the first of his four Best Director bids in 1980 for “Ordinary People.”

John C. Reilly (Stan and Ollie) plays legendary comic Oliver Hardy. He is the lone nominee from his film. He was nominated for his performance and songwriting in “Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story” and for his supporting role in “Chicago.”

Additional notes: Bale and Mortensen are both nominated for individual SAG Awards. The winner of this category sometimes goes on to be nominated for an Oscar, and two victors – Jean Dujardin and Jamie Foxx – have actually won the Oscar.
Who should win? I didn’t find Miranda to be the best part of his film, and Reilly was fun but not spectacular. I can appreciate Bale’s immersion in his character. I thought Redford was terrific, and I’d choose him or the almost effortlessly great Mortensen.
Who will win? This shouldn’t be much of a challenge for Bale, though Mortensen triumphing would be an intriguing surprise.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition:
Glenn Close (The Wife) plays Joan Castleman, the loyal spouse of a renowned author. She is the lone nominee for her film. She has a staggering twelve previous acting bids, winning twice for TV work in “Damages” and “The Lion in Winter.”

Lady Gaga (A Star is Born) plays Ally, a musical newcomer plucked from obscurity by an established musician. Gaga, who is also nominated for her film’s signature song, won a Globe in 2015 for her role in the TV series “American Horror Story.”

Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) plays Erin Bell, a cop facing her harrowing past. She is the lone nominee for her film. She also has twelve previous nominations, winning four times, most recently for the series “Big Little Lies.” Her film victories were for “The Hours,” “Moulin Rouge,” and “To Die For.”

Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) plays Lee Israel, a writer who begins forging literary letters. Her costar Richard E. Grant is also nominated. Though she has multiple Emmys wins, for “Saturday Night Live” and “Mike and Molly,” and an Oscar nomination for “Bridesmaids,” her only previous Globe bid was in 2015 for the film “Spy.”

Rosamund Pike (A Private War) plays war correspondent Marie Colvin. Her film is also nominated for Best Original Song. She was previously nominated in 2014 for “Gone Girl.”

Additional notes: Close, Gaga, and McCarthy are all nominated for individual SAG Awards, with Gaga contending additionally as part of her ensemble. The winner of this category has gone on to win the Oscar about half the time in the past fifteen years.
Who should win? I wasn’t wowed by Kidman or Pike in their films. McCarthy was good and funny in a more serious way than usual, and Close is definitely a solid choice. Gaga is pretty much what makes her film work though, and so she gets my vote.
Who will win? It could be Close, but Gaga should be far enough ahead.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition:
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) plays alcoholic country star Jackson Maine. Cooper’s film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama, and he is a double nominee, also cited for his direction. He was previously nominated for “American Hustle” and “Silver Linings Playbook.”

Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate) plays painter Vincent Van Gogh. He was nominated last year for “The Florida Project” and in 2000 for “Shadow of the Vampire.” He is the lone representation of his film.

Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased) plays Jared Eamons, an Arkansas teenager sent to gay conversion therapy by his religious patients. His film contends for Best Original Song. This is his first Globe nomination.

Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) plays legendary rocker Freddie Mercury. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama. He was nominated in 2016 and 2017 for his starring role in the television series “Mr. Robot.”

John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman) plays Officer Ron Stallworth, who goes undercover to join the KKK. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama. This is his first nomination, taking over for his father, Denzel, who was honored in this category the past two years.

Additional notes: Cooper, Malek, and Washington are also nominated both individually and as part of their ensembles at the SAG Awards. The winner of this award has gone on to win the Oscar all but three times in the past fifteen years.
Who should win? I like all of these performers. Dafoe was strong even when his film dragged. Hedges, in one of multiple performances this year, felt especially authentic. Washington got into the style of his film and served as its driving energy. Cooper was serious and captivating. Malek gets my vote for his completely consumed musical deep dive.
Who will win? Many are backing Cooper, whose film is expected to win Best Motion Picture – Drama, but I think that Malek is the one who will prevail.

Minute with Abe Returns!

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

My predictions: 4/5, missing “Crazy Rich Asians”
Who’s missing? Eighth Grade

This category doesn’t offer any surprises, with Crazy Rich Asians getting in over my prediction, “Eighth Grade,” with both films earning best actress bids. The other four nominees all earned multiple bids. Mary Poppins Returns, the only best picture nominee I haven’t yet seen, netted actor, actress, and score nominations. The Favourite saw its three actresses all nominated along with its screenplay. Green Book scored for its lead actor, supporting actor, director, and screenplay. And Vice, far from a sure thing given its unimpressive awards season start, topped them all with six nominations – director, screenplay, actor, supporting actor, and supporting actress. This is undoubtedly a diverse list.

Who will win? It could honestly be any of them, and I’ll actually go with Green Book at the moment with minimal certainty.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Motion Picture – Drama

My predictions: 3/5, missing “Black Panther” and “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Who’s missing? First Man, Widows, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, First Reformed

These nominees aren’t all that surprising, and it’s not as if “First Man” or “Widows” ever had much of a shot. Their Oscar hopes aren’t completely dashed, but they would have both needed to show up here to have a major chance. Black Panther and Bohemian Rhapsody both scored in a big way by showing up without any other unexpected nominations, just score and song bids for the former and a best actor mention for Rami Malek for the latter. The former is much likelier to earn a Best Picture Oscar bid, but maybe the latter is in the race too. I’m a fan of it even those most aren’t. BlacKkKlansman needed this nomination to cement its awards season status, and it got it along with a Best Director bid for Spike Lee and two acting nominations. If Beale Street Could Talk did well enough, earning screenplay and supporting actress mentions. And A Star is Born cleaned up pretty well, with directing, song, actor, and actress nominations. This is a good list to be sure.

Who will win? Based on other nominations and general popularity, A Star is Born still feels like the frontrunner.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Director – Motion Picture

My predictions: 3/5, missing Spike Lee and Adam McKay
Who’s missing? Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk), Damien Chazelle (First Man), Ryan Coogler (Black Panther), Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)

This category contains some great news for certain directors and very bad news for others. I didn’t expect Adam McKay (Vice) to peak this early, both because he didn’t get a Globe nomination before his eventual Oscar bid for “The Big Short” and because his film performed poorly with precursors. Ending up as the nominations leader here means that it is a firm frontrunner in a way it really wasn’t before. The same goes for Peter Farrelly (Green Book), whose inclusion as a comedy film director was far from guaranteed. Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) earned his first nomination in twenty-nine years and only his second overall, giving him a decent shot at Oscar for the first time. The news is worst for Lanthimos, whose omission is disconcerting, and Chazelle, who is now likely out of the race. Jenkins probably doesn’t have to worry as much, but he’s going to have some serious competition to get past the previously mentioned nominees. It's worth noting that there are no female directors here again, but I don't know if the contenders this year were as high-profile as Greta Gerwig last year, so we'll see if someone shows up later in the race. Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) and Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) have nothing to worry about since their films did great and they’re far out ahead.

Who will win? I’m putting my money on Cuaron.