Monday Oscar Odds: Shortlists Edition

Today, the Academy announced shortlists in nine different categories. I haven’t had a chance to do any kind of deep dive into any of the three short film races. I’m now going to spend a lot of my time in the next few weeks listening on repeat. I didn’t predict the Best Original Song lineup because I didn’t feel that tuned into the race, and I’ve actually only seen six of the films nominated, not that it matters as much in that race (and I've already created a YouTube playlist of the nominated songs). Commentary below in six of the categories, with my predictions for nominees in bold!

Best Documentary Feature
Advocate
American Factory
The Apollo
Apollo 11
Aquarela
The Biggest Little Farm
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
The Great Hack
Honeyland
Knock Down the House
Maiden
Midnight Family
One Child Nation

I correctly predicted twelve of these selections, and the only one I included whose omission here is a surprise is “Ask Dr. Ruth,” which I had initially predicted for a nomination. Last year, I had seen only four films on this list when it came out, now, I’ve seen all but four, with “Aquarela,” “Maiden,” “Midnight Family,” and “One Child Nation” still on my list to see. I’m sticking with my original five predictions since they’re all on this list, and I may revise once I’ve seen those other four. If you’re interested in catching up, a number of these films are available for streaming: “American Factory,” “The Edge of Democracy,” “The Great Hack,” and “Knock Down the House” are all on Netflix, “One Child Nation” is on Amazon Prime, and “The Apollo” is on HBO. More soon!

Best International Feature
The Painted Bird (Czech Republic)
Truth and Justice (Estonia)
Les Misérables (France)
Those Who Remained (Hungary)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Beanpole (Russia)
Atlantics (Senegal)
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)

I scored six out of ten here, with relatively unexpected snubs for “Invisible Life” (Brazil), “Monos” (Colombia), “Out Stealing Horses” (Norway), and “And Then We Danced” (Sweden). I’ve seen eight, with just “The Painted Bird” and “Atlantics” (which is on Netflix) left to go. “Honeyland,” which is good if overrated, made both this list and the documentary shortlist, and it’s a shame that “Weathering with You” (Japan), which I’m hoping will earn a bid for Best Animated Feature, isn’t here, even if it never had much of a shot at a nomination. The only real surprise here is “Those Who Remained,” which didn't have a profile anywhere near any of the rest of these films. I’ve reviewed three of these films already and will be posting reviews of the rest within the next two weeks or so. I’m swapping in “Beanpole” to accommodate for “Out Stealing Horses,” the fifth film I had been predicting up until now.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell
Dolemite Is My Name
Downton Abbey
Joker
Judy
Little Women
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman

I only got half of these, partially because I only predicted seven finalists to ultimately be boiled down to three nominees. I guess I missed the memo. The two films that didn’t make the cut, “Cats” and “The Irishman,” are surprising omissions, though at least they both made the list for visual effects. I’ve seen all but one of these films – “Maleficent: Mistress of Evil” – and may not bother since the original was only nominated for Best Costume Design, so I’m not sure it will make the eventual list here. More on this category in my full rundown of the category later this month as we look at the first time this category will ever have five nominees.

Best Original Score
Avengers: Endgame
Bombshell
The Farewell
Ford v Ferrari
Frozen II
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
The King
Little Women
Marriage Story
Motherless Brooklyn
1917
Pain and Glory
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Us

I missed four of these finalists, predicting “Harriet,” a surprise snub, “The Report,” “The Two Popes,” and “Waves.” The inclusion of “Pain and Glory” is unexpected, and I didn’t see the enthusiasm here for “The Farewell” and “Frozen II” coming. The other film that I was surprised to see here is Netflix’s “The King,” which I hadn’t planned to watch but may do now. At the very least, I’ll be making a YouTube playlist to listen to some samples from each of these soundtracks. All five Golden Globe nominees are represented, and I’m predicting “Ford v Ferrari” and “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” to edge out “Joker” and “Motherless Brooklyn.”

Best Original Song
Speechless (Aladdin)
Letter To My Godfather (The Black Godfather)
I’m Standing With You (Breakthrough)
Da Bronx (The Bronx USA)
Into The Unknown (Frozen II)
Stand Up (Harriet)
Catchy Song (The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part)
Never Too Late (The Lion King)
Spirit (The Lion King)
Daily Battles (Motherless Brooklyn)
A Glass of Soju (Parasite)
I’m Gonna Love Me Again (Rocketman)
High Above The Water (Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am)
I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away (Toy Story 4)
Glasgow (Wild Rose)

The only real snub I see here is for the Golden Globe-nominated song from “Cats,” which I actually liked upon listening to when those nominees were unveiled. Perhaps unwisely, I’m predicting the other four to be joined by a tune from “Wild Rose,” which is really great (and a film that should be nominated elsewhere but surely won’t). I need to listen to many of these over and over, including a song I didn’t even know was in Parasite, and you can do that right here with this YouTube playlist I created (currently missed just one song that I’m still seeking out). More thoughts on nominated artists coming in my winner predictions.

Best Visual Effects
Alita: Battle Angel
Avengers: Endgame
Captain Marvel
Cats
Gemini Man
The Irishman
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Terminator: Dark Fate

I missed just three of these films in my predictions, picking “Ad Astra,” “Ford v Ferrari,” and “Spider-Man: Far From Home” instead of “Cats,” “Gemini Man,” and “Terminator: Dark Fate.” I’ve seen only four so far, and after I see “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” later this week and “The Lion King” at home sometime soon, I’ll have seen all of my predictions for eventual nominations. I’m not sure I’ll make my way through this entire list pre-Oscars, but we’ll see.

Monday Oscar Odds

I was supposed to see “Little Women” yesterday in New York, but the screening was cancelled at the last minute when the theater closed early due to inclement weather. I’m on a plane now back to Los Angeles, where the weather should be better and I shouldn’t have any problem seeing it later this week. Also on my schedule already for the next week are “Richard Jewell,” which seems to be building up steam, “Hustlers,” and a handful of Best International Feature contenders. From what I’ve been seeing thus far from the groups that have announced their nominees, I think I need to go see “Knives Out,” and, as much as I don’t want to, it seems that “Us” will almost definitely be an awards player.

I did watch “Waves,” which I don’t think will be the awards contender I initially thought it would, and so I’m removing Sterling K. Brown for now from the Best Supporting Actor race. He may still contend, but I don’t think so. I also watched “Rocketman,” which will likely place in the technical categories but not anything too major. That’s all I have in terms of updates – I didn’t watch many movies during Thanksgiving week but will make up for that this coming week.

The Annie Awards announced their nominations for the best in animation today, and, despite a few omissions of top contenders in the Best Director category, all is pretty much as expected. I’ve barely seen any of these, but “Toy Story 4,” “Frozen 2,” “Missing Link,” and “How to Drain Your Dragon: The Hidden World.” Nipping at their heels are “Klaus,” “Weathering with You,” and “I Lost My Body,” and, despite its presence in a few technical categories, “Abominable” didn’t make the cut in any top race.

The other big news comes from the British Independent Film Awards, which crowned “For Sama” its Best Picture winner. While none of the films it beat will contend in major categories and only three past nominees have gone on to be nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture, its significant that this Best Documentary contender took home that prize. I’m going to put it back in my predictions, replacing “Apollo 11.”

The Gotham Awards tonight are expected to crown either “The Farewell” or “Marriage Story” their best film, though “Uncut Gems” might also win. It doesn’t have much of an effect on the Oscars other than to give a boost to whatever film takes home prizes. The Satellite Awards should also announce sometime tonight, and while they’re not significant, they do offer a look at what films and performances could make the cut in an expanded lineup.

One week from today, the Golden Globe nominations will be unveiled, and then next Wednesday, SAG nominations will be announced. Two weeks from today, we’ll get finalists in a bunch of Oscar categories, so stay tuned for lots of predictions, commentary, and more, plus reviews of as many contenders as I can watch and write.

Current predictions:

Best Picture
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Bombshell
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Director
Martin Scorsese The Irishman)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

Best Actor
Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Best Actress
Awkwafina (The Farewell)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

Best Original Screenplay
Bombshell
The Farewell
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell
The Irishman
Rocketman

Best Animated Feature
Frozen II
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Weathering with You

Best Documentary
American Factory
Apollo 11
The Biggest Little Farm
For Sama
Honeyland

Best International Feature
Les Miserables (France)
Out Stealing Horses (Norway)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)

Monday Oscar Odds

I’ll only be seeing one big movie that could have a big awards impact – “Waves” – this week, though I may find time for a few entries available on home video or streaming services in the midst of Thanksgiving travel. For now, I have some changes to make based on what I’ve seen this week.

The biggest film I saw was “1917,” which screened for its first audiences on Saturday in New York and on Sunday in Los Angeles. I had been doubting this film for a while, and I now think that it’s almost guaranteed to show up in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Cinematography, and Best Original Score, and likely a handful of other technical categories. I think it could well win Best Picture, since it seems to have impressed a lot of people and is opening much later in the year than, say, “Dunkirk” a few years ago. Screenplay is a possibility too, but for now I’m swapping Sam Mendes, who won this category twenty years ago for his debut feature, “American Beauty,” in for Best Director and taking out Noah Baumbach for “Marriage Story,” even though I still think he might make the cut.

Two other big contenders I saw were “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” and “Bombshell.” The former wasn’t quite as family-friendly as I would have thought but was still charming, and I do think that Tom Hanks will probably be nominated for an Oscar this year for the first time since 2000, despite high-profile snubs for “Saving Mr. Banks,” “Captain Phillips,” “Bridge of Spies,” and “Sully” in the interim. The movie itself should still manage a Best Picture nomination, though that’s far from guaranteed, and a screenplay bid also seems likely. I wouldn’t expect anything else, however. “Bombshell” reminded me a lot of “Vice,” though I liked it more than that film, and I assume that will make it appealing to Oscar voters. I’m definitely keeping Charlize Theron in, not putting Nicole Kidman anywhere, and not so sure about what’s going to happen with Margot Robbie, who I think might end up with twin Golden Globe nominations in the same category. I’m going to put it in on the Best Picture list and also in the Best Original Screenplay race, replacing “Waves,” though I might reverse that after I see that film tonight.

There are a few other films that I think are worth mentioning. I streamed “Dolemite Is My Name” on Netflix and really enjoyed it, and I think that Eddie Murphy stands a good chance of being nominated. I’m putting him in for Best Actor and taking out Antonio Banderas for the moment. I think the film is likely to earn a Golden Globe nomination for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and a SAG bid for its ensemble cast, but a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars doesn’t feel like it’s going to happen. “Queen and Slim,” which opens this week (review coming very soon), is certainly an experience, though I don’t think it’s one that’s going to translate to Oscar attention. Two contenders for Best International Feature, “The Whistlers” from Romania and “Traitor” from Italy, could well end up on the ten-wide finalist list which will be announced three weeks from today, but I’m not so sure.

The Film Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced last Thursday. The only film to score bids for Best Feature and Best Director was “Uncut Gems,” a Safdie brothers feature starring Adam Sandler. I didn’t love the film but the audience I saw it with last week loved it, so it’s possible it could impress more mainstream voters. I don’t think that’s the case, with Sandler likelier to end up as the sole nominee from the film. If it does well at the Golden Globes, I may change my tune, but not just yet. Alfre Woodard also got a big boost with a bid for herself and one for “Clemency” in the Best Feature category.

As for monitoring buzz on other films, “Ford v Ferrari” is one that I’ve heard people loved, and I’m thinking that it’s probably smart to anticipate it doing well. I’m putting it in for Best Picture over “The Farewell,” which saddens me, but that’s what I’m thinking right now. I’m keeping Christian Bale off the Best Actor list, but he could easily show up there.

I’m still eager to see “Richard Jewell” and “Little Women,” and plan to see both within the next two weeks. I’ll be screening other films as well, in addition to beginning Golden Globe and SAG predictions later this week. Check back next Monday for more. Two weeks from today, Golden Globe nominations will be announced, and a week later, all of the Oscar finalists in the designated categories. Stay tuned!

Current predictions:

Best Picture
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Bombshell
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Director
Martin Scorsese The Irishman)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

Best Actor
Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Best Actress
Awkwafina (The Farewell)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown (Waves)
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

Best Original Screenplay
Bombshell
The Farewell
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell
The Irishman
Rocketman

Best Animated Feature
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Klaus
Toy Story 4
Weathering with You

Best Documentary
American Factory
The Apollo
Apollo 11
The Biggest Little Farm
Honeyland

Best International Feature
Les Miserables (France)
Out Stealing Horses (Norway)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)

Monday Oscar Odds

This week, I saw a number of films, most notably “The Irishman.” While it was undeniably long, it impressed me, and I think that De Niro, Pacino, and Pesci – my favorite – will all be in. I also got to see “Downton Abbey,” and given that there was a number of Academy members in the audience, their laughter at every one of Maggie Smith’s lines gives me confidence that she’ll probably be nominated unless other contenders emerge. “Just Mercy” probably won’t figure into the race, and aside from a Best Original Score bid, I think “A Hidden Life” won’t show up too much.

The film that I saw which will now figure into my predictions is “The Two Popes.” I didn’t think that Jonathan Pryce or Anthony Hopkins would be nominated, but I’m now pretty confident that Pryce will make the cut for Best Actor. I don’t see the film showing up anywhere else, but it’s possible Hopkins could contend or the film’s screenplay could if people really embrace it. I’m officially swapping Pryce in and Leonardo DiCaprio out.

I’m excited to be seeing “Bombshell” this coming week, along with “Queen and Slim,” a potential contender, and a few of the notable Best International Feature submissions. I may be able to catch a few more of the films I’ve noted below, but I’m not sure of my exact schedule just yet. The nominations for the Film Independent Spirit Awards will be announced on Thursday, and so that should give us a better framework of what to expect, likely prompting some big changes in next week’s lineup. Stay tuned!

Current predictions:

Best Picture
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Director
Martin Scorsese The Irishman)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

Best Actor
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Best Actress
Awkwafina (The Farewell)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown (Waves)
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

Best Original Screenplay
The Farewell
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Waves

Best Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell
The Irishman
Rocketman

Best Animated Feature
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Klaus
Toy Story 4
Weathering with You

Best Documentary
American Factory
The Apollo
Apollo 11
The Biggest Little Farm
Honeyland

Best International Feature
Les Miserables (France)
Out Stealing Horses (Norway)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)

Monday Oscar Odds

It’s been a very busy week of screenings, and I have even more scheduled for this week. I’m trying to keep on top of the buzz to understand what films may be gaining or losing advantages, even if I have yet to see them or didn’t like them.

I’m adding one category here with three films I haven’t yet seen but hope to within the next week and a half or so. The Makeup Artists and Hair Stylists Guild announced their nominations earlier today. I’m choosing three films that seem likeliest, though it’s also possible that “Joker,” “Downton Abbey,” or “Hustlers” could break into the three-wide field.

I’ve watched a handful of other documentaries that could contend, mostly from DOC NYC. I’m subbing in “The Apollo” in place of “Ask Dr. Ruth,” but I also think that either of the Syrian films in contention, “The Cave” and “For Sama,” could easily displace one or two of the others. We’ll have to see what the finalist list of fifteen films announced in just over a month will include.

I got to screen a handful of Best International Feature submissions, including those from Poland, France, North Macedonia, Estonia, and Israel. Reviews will be forthcoming for those – at this time, I’m not making any changes to my predictions. The European Film Awards also announced their nominees, which included top placements for submissions from France, Spain, Germany, and Italy.

The most high-profile contender that I watched this week was “Marriage Story,” which really was very good. I see it doing very well across the board, and while Alan Alda, an original prediction of mine who I took out last week, could make the cut, his role really is very small. The big question mark remains “1917,” which is slated to begin screening in two weeks and which I hope to see soon. I’ve resisted putting it in, but I think I’m going to add it now in place of “Little Women,” another film I won’t be seeing for a few weeks, though I’m not yet bumping anyone from Best Director.

I’m finally going to screen “The Irishman” tonight and have a number of other exciting contenders to see this week. I don’t feel confident about either the Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor lineups, but I’ll have to see more films and precursors first before making any serious changes. Stick around for reviews and updated predictions next week!

Current predictions:

Best Picture
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Director
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

Best Actor
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Best Actress
Awkwafina (The Farewell)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown (Waves)
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

Best Original Screenplay
The Farewell
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Waves

Best Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell
The Irishman
Rocketman

Best Animated Feature
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Klaus
Toy Story 4
Weathering with You

Best Documentary
American Factory
The Apollo
Apollo 11
The Biggest Little Farm
Honeyland

Best International Feature
Les Miserables (France)
Out Stealing Horses (Norway)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)

Monday Oscar Odds

I’m going to be seeing a lot of top contenders in the next couple weeks, and so, for the moment, I only have a bit more information to help me with my predictions.

The big announcement that has potential for impact is that the 93 submissions for Best International Feature, formerly Best Foreign Film, will now be able to be screened online by all Academy members to determine the ultimate five nominees, drawn from a shortlist of ten, up from nine. Theoretically, this makes it easier for films to be seen and might give stronger but lesser-known entries a better shot. It doesn't change my predictions just yet, however, but I'll keep an eye on the category going forward.

I had seen “Harriet” before posting last week’s predictions, and though star Cynthia Erivo appears to be getting positive mentions, I still think she may just miss out. I finally got to see “Parasite” on Tuesday and absolutely loved it. It stays in my predictions in all categories, though I understand it’s still a historical longshot, especially after “Burning” got snubbed in the Best Foreign Film race last year. The other big contender I saw after missing it in its initial theatrical release was “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” There was an awards screening in San Francisco on Saturday which featured a live-streamed Q and A session at the Los Angeles screening with Quentin Tarantino, Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, and Margot Robbie after the film. I personally didn’t love the movie, but getting to hear the actors talk after clued me into the fact that I’m in the minority. Pitt seems like a good bet since it’s a natural and entertaining performance, and Robbie, despite minimal screen time, will surely earn votes, though it sounds like her turn in “Bombshell,” which I won’t be seeing for a couple weeks, is likely to eclipse that. DiCaprio is less certain, but this seems to be a turn respected in a similar way to “The Revenant,” one that demonstrates clear effort and intention even if the end result isn’t quite as formidable as everyone believes it to be. Tarantino should be set for a directing nomination and the film shouldn’t have any trouble placing in the Best Picture field, especially considering “Django Unchained” made the cut.

I’m still making my way through DOC NYC’s Features Shortlist, so I’ll wait to revise my Best Documentary predictions until I’ve screened a few more films. The only change, therefore, that I’m making to my predictions is to sub in Sterling K. Brown for “Waves” in the Best Supporting Actor field after seeing a trailer for the film. This week, I’m planning to see “Dark Waters,” Polish International Feature submission “Corpus Christi,” and top contender “Marriage Story,” and possibly a few others. Reviews will be posted closer to release, but that will definitely inform my picks here. Stay tuned!

Current predictions:

Best Picture
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Director
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

Best Actor
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Best Actress
Awkwafina (The Farewell)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown (Waves)
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood )
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

Best Original Screenplay
The Farewell
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Waves

Best Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women

Best Animated Feature
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Klaus
Toy Story 4
Weathering with You

Best Documentary
American Factory
Apollo 11
Ask Dr. Ruth
The Biggest Little Farm
Honeyland

Best International Feature
Les Miserables (France)
Out Stealing Horses (Norway)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)

Monday Oscar Odds

If you’ve been visiting MoviesWithAbe.com recently, you’ve likely noticed that Emmy season is over and, while fall TV pilots continue to premiere, it’s time to start thinking about the Oscars. I’ve been watching and reviewing tons of movies that look like top contenders, and I already have more than fifteen screenings on the calendar for November. I’m still missing a lot of the big movies, but I’m getting there, and I’m now starting to pay close attention as I offer my first official predictions.

The only real precursor that we have to work with already is the Gotham Awards, which announced their independent film nominations last week. Last year, none of their Best Picture picks ended up earning a corresponding Oscar nod, and “If Beale Street Could Talk” got a huge boost that didn’t pan out at all come Oscar time (though it did win the top Independent Spirit Award). I’ve seen just one of the nominees this year – “The Farewell” – which I hope will end up going the distance, especially for star Awkwafina. My favorite film of the year, “The Last Black Man in San Francisco,” didn’t show up in the top category but netted a few nominations, and I’m also thrilled for Aldis Hodge, who I’m hoping will manage a Best Supporting Actor bid for “Clemency” but doubt can. The other Best Feature nominees were “Hustlers,” which has done very well, and three films I’m very much looking forward to seeing in the next month or so: “Marriage Story,” “Uncut Gems,” and “Waves.”

Documentary awards groups have also been announcing a lot over the past week or two. The list I’m paying most attention to is DOC NYC’s Shortlist, which cites fifteen features which usually end up populating a good portion of the Oscar list of fifteen films that will be unveiled in mid-December. I’m trying to screen as many of these as I can this week in advance of DOC NYC, so look out for those reviews and changing predictions as a result. The rest is all guesswork – please comment with what you’ve seen and what you’re rooting for!

Best Picture
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Director
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

Best Actor
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Best Actress
Awkwafina (The Farewell)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Alda (Marriage Story)
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood )
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

Best Original Screenplay
The Farewell
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Waves

Best Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women

Best Animated Feature
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Klaus
Toy Story 4
Weathering with You

Best Documentary
American Factory
Apollo 11
Ask Dr. Ruth
The Biggest Little Farm
Honeyland

Best International Feature
Les Miserables (France)
Out Stealing Horses (Norway)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)

Monday Oscar Odds: Tuesday Edition

I spent all of yesterday morning and early afternoon eagerly awaiting the announcement of the shortlists for nine different categories, and of course it wasn’t released until just after I had to leave for an event and a screening. Therefore, what I planned to put up yesterday had to wait for today. I’ll look at six of the newly clearer races below, but first: the SAG nominations.

SAG announced their picks on Wednesday, with only a few surprises and snubs. John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman) got a boost while Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) was left off again. Viola Davis (Widows) can kiss her chances goodbye as Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns) showed her strength. She even managed a second bid for “A Quiet Place” along with Margot Robbie (Mary, Queen of Scots), bumping Claire Foy (First Man) and, much more shockingly, Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk). Sam Elliott (A Star is Born) showed up after his Globe snub, replacing Sam Rockwell (Vice). The ensemble race contained more surprises. “A Star is Born” managed to get in despite having a small cast, joined by “BlacKkKlansman” and “Black Panther,” cementing their Oscar prospects, and “Crazy Rich Asians,” whose presence here doesn’t really increase its Best Picture chances. “Bohemian Rhapsody” was a more unexpected choice, making it a very likely Best Picture contender given the stats that no Best Motion Picture – Drama Globe nominee also recognized in this race has ever been snubbed for the top Oscar. This is bad news for “The Favourite” and “Vice,” though I’d liken them to “The Shape of Water” and “Call Me By Your Name” last year, both of which weren’t affected by missing out here. “Roma” wasn’t ever going to make the cut, in my opinion, so being left off is no big deal, whereas “If Beale Street Could Talk” is more problematically absent. “Widows” is officially dead, which saddens me. The one change I'm making is a slight substitution in Best Picture, though I may reverse that based on guild honorees.

The alphabetical first of the shortlists released by the Academy today was that for Best Documentary Feature. I’ve seen just four of them – “Crime + Punishment,” “Of Fathers and Sons,” “On Her Shoulders,” and “Three Identical Strangers.” I’ve been meaning to see “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” (which my wife saw at Sundance and loved), “RBG,” “Free Solo,” “Minding the Gap,” “Shirkers,” and “Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” as well as “Dark Money” and “The Silence of Others.” I’ve never even heard of “Charm City,” “Communion,” “The Distant Barking of Dogs.” Even with less than 30% of the films screened, all five that I had previously predicted are on this shortlist. I’m not changing my list until I’ve seen more. I’m also not commenting on the short film categories since I’ve seen nothing in those.

Next up is Best Foreign Language Film, which didn’t present too many surprises. “Girl” (Belgium), which I’m actually seeing tonight, is the one Golden Globe nominee that didn’t make the cut. Best Picture frontrunner “Roma” (Mexico), “Shoplifters” (Japan), and “Capernaum” (Lebanon) are all in, as is Globe nominee “Never Look Away” (Germany) and the Globe-snubbed “Cold War” (Poland). Joining them is “Burning” (South Korea), a great choice, and three films I have yet to see: “Birds of Passage” (Colombia), “The Guilty” (Denmark), and “Ayka” (Kazakhstan). A few films I had seen didn’t make the cut, like “The Cakemaker” (Israel), “El Angel” (Argentina), and “Beauty and the Dogs” (Tunisia). I never expected the latter of those to make it, but would have been very pleased if it had. I’m tempted to swap “Burning” in for “Never Look Away” after having seen it, and I think I’ll do that for the moment.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling only has three nominees, now drawn from a pool of seven. I haven’t seen and don’t plan to see “Suspiria,” and I’m not sure I’m going to bother with “Border” either, especially after it didn’t make the cut as the Swedish Foreign Film entry. “Vice” and “Stan and Ollie” make sense here because of just how much they disguise their leads, while “Mary, Queen of Scots” is a decent regal choice even I see a much stronger case for “The Favourite,” which didn’t make the bake-off. The mentions here for “Black Panther” and “Bohemian Rhapsody” mark the latest wave of popularity for these two films, though I don’t think either of them will ultimately make the final list.

Best Original Score would usually have been announced around this time with a list of the full 156 contenders, but instead, which I didn’t even realize, we just get the fifteen finalists this time around. I’m seeing Golden Globe nominee “Mary Poppins Returns” tomorrow night, and missing just three more, all of which are available on demand or will be within the next three weeks: “Ready Player One” (HBO Go), “Avengers: Infinity War” (Netflix, December 25), and “Annihilation” (Hulu, January 5). The expected frontrunners are Golden Globe nominees “First Man,” “Isle of Dogs,” “A Quiet Place,” and “Black Panther.” Other buzzy films placing here are “Vice,” “If Beale Street Could Talk,” “BlacKkKlansman,” and “Crazy Rich Asians.” Less expected finalists are “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,” and, most excitingly, “The Death of Stalin.” I plan to listen to all of these once I’ve seen them and offer more detailed analysis, including who the composers are, with my current predictions listed below.

Best Original Song also got fifteen finalists instead of the ninety eligible being revealed. Only “Requiem for a Private War” (A Private War) is missing from the list of Golden Globe nominees. “Shallow” (A Star is Born) remains, in my mind, the frontrunner, with “All the Stars” (Black Panther), “Revelation” (Boy Erased), and “Girl in the Movies” (Dumplin’) all in a good spot with Globe mentions. Other expected contenders are “I’ll Fight” (RBG), “The Place Where Lost Things Go” (Mary Poppins Returns), and “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” (Mary Poppins Returns). Entertainingly blunt anthems like “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs) and “A Place Called Slaughter Race” (Ralph Breaks the Internet) are fun choices, but not what I’d expect to become nominees. Though I’ve seen the films, I don’t remember “Treasure” (Beautiful Boy), “OYAHYTT” (Sorry to Bother You), and “The Big Unknown” (Widows). I’ll have to listen to “We Won’t Move” (The Hate U Give), “Keep Reachin’” (Quincy), and “Suspirium” (Suspiria). I’m going to make a playlist shortly and will report back with my thoughts.

Finally, there’s Best Visual Effects, where all five of my predictions from the originally-announced twenty appear on this revised ten. I’ve seen just two: “Black Panther” and “First Man,” both of which are likely to be nominated. “Avengers: Infinity War” and “Ready Player One” seem like good bets to be join them, as could “Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom,” “Solo: A Star Wars Story,” or “Ant-Man and the Wasp.” I’m not as confident about “Christopher Robin” or “Mary Poppins Returns” getting in, but maybe “Welcome to Marwen” could. I’m not changing anything at the moment.

That’s it with the big announcements until guilds start unveiling their nominees on January 4th, so this feature will be back after that time as full predictions in all categories begin, as well as Golden Globe and SAG odds, as well as an early look at my favorites of the year!

Best Picture
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Eighth Grade
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
A Star is Born

Best Director
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Adam McKay (Vice)

Best Actor
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

Best Actress
Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (Vice)
Claire Foy (First Man)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Best Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Vice

Best Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mary, Queen of Scots
Stan and Ollie
Vice

Best Original Score
Black Panther
The Death of Stalin
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs

Best Original Song
“All the Stars” (Black Panther)
“Revelation” (Boy Erased)
“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” (Mary Poppins Returns)
“I’ll Fight” (RBG)
“Shallow” (A Star is Born)

Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Documentary
Of Fathers and Sons
On Her Shoulders
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Best Foreign Film
Burning (South Korea)
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Monday Oscar Odds

With the Golden Globes announcing their nominations this past Thursday and the Critics Choice list coming out this morning, we’re starting to get a real picture of the Oscar race. I’ve seen so much more than I ever have at this point in the season, and I’m working up the courage to see the two horror films that are performing better than expected (at least by me) and making plans to see the few remaining films either in theaters or on DVD. SAG nominations are announced Wednesday, and then we get tons of shortlists for technical categories next Monday, before many more precursors in the new year. Here’s a look at what’s happened and what it might mean. I’m offering visual effects predictions from a twenty-wide shortlist before the narrowed ten-wide one is publicized next week.

I looked back over Critics Choice nominees from previous years to see whether they included new contenders not recognized at the Golden Globes and how much they diverged from the eventual Oscar list. Only “Phantom Thread” really burst forth at the Oscars without much notice ahead of time last year. Especially with last year when, statistically, no film could win Best Picture because of historical necessities that had not been met, it’s most important to remember that it doesn’t actually matter what happened previously. What does seem clear, sad as it is to me, is that “Widows” is not going to be a major player. It missed out entirely at the Globes, and the Critics Choice list only features it in ensemble (a decent get), editing, and action movie, with Viola Davis missing out in a seven-wide field. “First Man” seemed like it was fading with only two Globe bids but then rallied with ten this morning, including picture, director, actor, and screenplay, plus a healthy dominance of the technical races. “First Reformed,” which to date has racked up eight critics’ prizes for star Ethan Hawke, doesn’t appear to be getting into the top race, but Hawke made up for his Globe miss with a mention today, and the film also showed up in the screenplay race. While critics love it, it may have to settle for those two Oscar nominations.

Though it’s ineligible for Best Motion Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes because it’s an international foreign language film, “Roma” still picked up director and screenplay bids, and it took home Best Picture prizes from critics’ groups in Philadelphia, Chicago, Toronto, Los Angeles, and New York (online) yesterday, making it, in my mind, the firm frontrunner for Best Picture even if it has the Netflix affiliation and its non-English nature going against it. “Vice” is also showing up strongly, netting the most Globe bids and a healthy Critics Choice take too. The review embargo ends this week, so I’m curious to see whether its prospects will change once thoughts on the film are public. Adam McKay is picking up nominations as its director while Barry Jenkins keeps missing out for “If Beale Street Could Talk,” which is a shame. I’m personally waiting to see “Mary Poppins Returns,” which is doing very well across the board. New predictions below – comment with your thoughts!

Best Picture
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
The Favourite
Eighth Grade
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

Best Director
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Adam McKay (Vice)

Best Actor
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

Best Actress
Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (Vice)
Claire Foy (First Man)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Best Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Vice

Best Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born

Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Documentary
Of Fathers and Sons
On Her Shoulders
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Best Foreign Film
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Monday Oscar Odds

It’s been a big week for Oscar precursors, though the most important thing to remember is that all of these organization are different from the Academy and might not actually predict the nominees since it’s a separate voting body.

“Green Book” took the top prize from the National Board of Review, while “Roma” scored with the New York Film Critics Circle. “A Star is Born” earned a few top prizes from NBR, and Regina King took home Best Supporting Actress prizes for “If Beale Street Could Talk” from both. Though it may not be the most important group, the Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Awards selected those four films and “The Favorite,” which missed out with both NBR and NYFCC but took home a staggering ten prizes from the British Independent Film Awards yesterday, for their Best Picture lineup. If there were still only five nominees for the Best Picture Oscar, those five would likely fill that list. The other big boost was for “First Reformed,” a film I wish I had liked, which earned screenplay prizes from NBR and NYFCC and a Best Actor prize for Ethan Hawke from NBR, and I think it’s time I officially added the film into my Oscar predictions for both categories. “Cold War,” which I had the chance to see last week, reaped Best Foreign Film trophies from both, though I still think “Roma” is ahead in the Oscar race. “Vice” is the only other expected contender that missed out across the board, with the Coen Brothers’ “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” making a surprise appearance in the NBR Top Ten list along with the likes of “A Quiet Place” and “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” Regina Hall also pulled off an unexpected win for Best Actress with NYFCC, so it’s possible she might make a splash with the Golden Globes and even end up with an Oscar nomination despite not previously being discussed so seriously as a contender.

Another announcement happened this past week which definitely has no influence on the Oscars but to me serves as an interesting extended template for who might end up on the Oscar ballot: the Satellite Awards nominations. This year, their lead acting nominations were divided into drama and comedy or musical, and they have three Best Picture categories: Drama, Independent, and Comedy or Musical. With eighteen nominees, we got a good deal of expected choices, with only “Vice” missing out. The inclusions that aren’t likely to translate to major awards bodies are “Hereditary,” “Leave No Trace” (though I’d love that), “Private Life” and “A Private War,” as well as “Nico, 1988,” a peculiar choice that I saw at Tribeca this past year. Also a question mark is “Mary Queen of Scots,” while “BlacKkKlansman,” “First Man,” and “Widows” are going to need a major boost from the Globes or SAG. The Best Director race in particular includes the six strongest contenders, who will have to be trimmed down to five for the Oscars. Peter Farrelly for “Green Book” is likeliest to be omitted, with Barry Jenkins for “If Beale Street Could Talk” and Spike Lee for “BlacKkKlansman” as the next most vulnerable.

Right now, I’m keeping “First Man” in my Best Picture predictions even though I think it might get overtaken by “First Reformed” if it misses out on its expected Golden Globe bids. I am, however, swapping out director Damien Chazelle for the man he beat for the Oscar two years ago, Barry Jenkins. Ethan Hawke is replacing Clint Eastwood, and, though I’m really not happy about it, I’m getting rid of Daniel Kaluuya and Elizabeth Debicki, though I really hope to swap them back in, with Adam Driver and Amy Adams temporarily inheriting their spots. I’m not getting rid of Melissa McCarthy just yet because I think she can rebound from a few unfortunate snubs along the way. Other minor modifications include “First Reformed” over “Roma” in Best Original Screenplay, “A Star is Born” over “First Man” for Best Adapted Screenplay, and “Never Look Away” over “Girl” for Best Foreign Film, though I have yet to see the latter. Much, much more next week once Golden Globe nominations are announced!

Best Picture
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
Widows

Best Director
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

Best Actor
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

Best Actress
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Viola Davis (Widows)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (Vice)
Claire Foy (First Man)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Best Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Vice

Best Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born
Widows

Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Documentary
Of Fathers and Sons
On Her Shoulders
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Best Foreign Film
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

Monday Oscar Odds

I had intended for this to be a weekly feature, but film festivals and other things have gotten in the way. Since my last edition on October 29th, I haven’t actually seen most of the films I was missing, aside from “Green Book,” which I reviewed earlier today and which is indeed terrific.

I’ll be offering Golden Globe predictions in all categories this week, and I discovered something very interesting in writing up each race this week. I often reference Wikipedia as a database for the nominees each year since its visual format is really easy to read, and I found something fascinating on the page for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. There were five nominees listed for 2018, pictured below, with all of the producers named as well. Not only that, but one of them – “The Favourite” – was listed as the winner, and it even suggested that both “The Favourite” and “Green Book” went on to be nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture. This is most mesmerizing since this couldn’t possibly be a leak because the ballots haven’t even been mailed out yet! I don’t know what to make of it other than that it’s a strange occurrence which tells me I’ve only seen two of these movies.

As far as the Oscars go, the most important announcement that’s come in the past few weeks were the nominations for the Film Independent Spirit Awards. I wish that “American Animals,” “Colette,” and “Thoroughbreds” had picked up more than just one nomination apiece in the editing and screenplay races since they’re so good, and I don’t imagine they’ll have any shot at the Oscars. Primarily, the Spirit nominations are bad news for Melissa McCarthy, who missed out both here and with the Gotham Awards despite costar Richard E. Grant getting in, and “BlacKkKlansman,” which only got recognized for supporting actor Adam Driver, who I hadn’t been predicting. “First Reformed” and “Eighth Grade” both performed well, so it’s possible they’ll break out from just the original screenplay category. I think that I’m actually not going to change anything in what I have below, just to add three categories in for now – Best Animated Feature, Best Documentary, and Best Foreign Film. More in the coming weeks, and stick around this week for Golden Globe predictions!

Best Picture
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
Widows

Best Director
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Damien Chazelle (First Man)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

Best Actor
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Clint Eastwood (The Mule)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

Best Actress
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Viola Davis (Widows)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Daniel Kaluuya (Widows)

Best Supporting Actress
Claire Foy (First Man)
Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Best Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
Vice

Best Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Widows

Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Documentary
Of Fathers and Sons
On Her Shoulders
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Best Foreign Film
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Girl (Belgium)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

Monday Oscar Odds

I haven’t actually done this since 2011, but since I feel like I’ve seen a whole lot of the Oscar contenders much earlier this year, I want to keep a running list each week of where I think the Oscar race stands. I regularly visit The Film Experience, Awards Daily, and Gold Derby for a look at what others are saying, but here’s what I think based on what I’ve seen and what I’ve heard. I’ll update each week and add more categories as we get closer.

At this point, I haven’t seen “Green Book” and “If Beale Street Could Talk,” and no one has seen “Vice” or “The Mule.” I’m not confident at all in the Oscar chances of Richard E. Grant and Sam Elliott, and I’m hoping that Rachel Weisz will continue to be part of the Oscar conversation in the supporting category. Having seen “Widows” (review coming soon), I think that film will do very well.

There are still plenty of other films that could end up on this list, but here’s where we stand as far as I can tell:

Best Picture
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
Widows

Best Director
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Damien Chazelle (First Man)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

Best Actor
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Clint Eastwood (The Mule)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

Best Actress
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Viola Davis (Widows)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Daniel Kaluuya (Widows)

Best Supporting Actress
Claire Foy (First Man)
Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Best Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
Vice

Best Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Widows