Artistic and Compelling: Atonement

Atonement
Directed by Joe Wright
Released September 7, 2007

If there is one thing I can say with absolute conviction about this film, is that it is stunning to look at and listen to. The scenery is beautiful, and the score is fantastic. The actors and the plot are not bad either. James McAvoy and Keira Knightley have limited roles which are no better or wose than any other role either of them have had, but they put in a decent effort. Saoirse Ronan is the actress who really deserves commendation here, in one of her first film roles. She more than holds her own alongside a more experienced cast and delivers a performance far beyond her age. The script really gets into the time period, and I cannot say how faithful it is to the book, having opted for the film over the book in this case. The story does not tread for too long, but it does feel like there might be a piece missing from the middle. It is certainly a pleasurable experience and a well-invested drama that deserves a good deal of praise, which I am sure it will get.

B+

Oscar chances: This might sound impulsive, but I now consider "Atonement" a lock for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actress (Ronan), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Art Direction, Best Costumes, and Best Original Score. That sounds like a lot, but it excels in each of the latter seven areas, and is sure to get enough positive buzz to earn a rank in the Best Picture lineup. McAvoy and Knightley face the problem of limited screentime despite main roles, and I think they might easily get left off in favor of more showy performers (Daniel Day-Lewis, for instance) and those with many roles this year (Philip Seymour Hoffman). Romola Garai could have a shot as the older version of Ronan's character, but the younger actress will eclipse most of the buzz. Vanessa Redgrave should absolutely not get in - the words "nothing special" are especially applicable here. Not to mention the fact that she appears in the film for a grand total of like TWO MINUTES. Please, Oscar voters, do not reward previously respected actresses who take five minutes to film a glorified bit part and do not excel at it. All in all, though, watch out for this one as the one that could beat "No Country for Old Men".

Overrated and Depressing: The Savages

The Savages
Directed by Tamara Jenkins
Released November 30, 2007

For starters, "The Savages" is not a comedy. Even moreso than "Margot at the Wedding", this film has a few one-liners but ultimately expands upon truly serious themes with deeply unhappy characters. The self-depricating nature of the three central characters works for a while, but it loses its value before the film can make any point or envision some hopeful future for any of the characters. The opening scene is a lot of fun and very clever, but it is not indicative of the rest of the film. Laura Linney stands out in this cast, but this is definitely not the best role for either her or co-star Philip Seymour Hoffman. Philip Bosco's performance is fleeting and feels unkempt, though his character's dimentia might account for some of that uncertainty. For a while I was enjoying the film, but then I realized that it was really going nowhere and actually quite predictable, and it lacks any element that would take it further and make all the depressing stuff balanced out. There are glimmers of greatness in some of the shots throughout the film, but as a whole, the effort does not show through.

B-

Oscar chances: Linney should be pretty safe, but Hoffman will gather buzz for his other performances. I think Bosco is completely out, and the screenplay will have to fight hard against the other comedies, which are actually comedies: "Juno", "Knocked Up", "Lars and the Real Girl", and "Ratatouille". I think just Linney will make it all the way.

Imagined Futures in Sci-fi: Koyaanisqatsi

I am taking a course called "Utopia/Dystopia: Imagined Futures in Sci-fi" which focuses on science fiction films from the fifties to the present. I will be writing a few words about each of the films I watch in class.

Koyaanisqatsi
Directed by Godfrey Reggio
Released September 14, 1983

I suppose it is only fitting that the last film for this course would be an 80 minute collection of images and music by Philip Glass purposefully devoid of any characters, dialogue, or plot. It is absolutely interesting, and I managed not to look away for the entire runtime, though sleep was a frequent consideration. The film, which gets its title from the Hopi language and means "life out of balance", honestly requires too much thinking for me. I love a good movie that gets under the skin and makes you reconsider a lot of things, but this is quite lengthy for what it is and can hardly be compared to anything else. I once made a short film that was similar in the sense that it had strong music, no characters, dialogue, or plot, but it was five and a half minutes long. This certainly gets you thinking, but ultimately I left feeling confused. I think that may have been the intention. Worth a look though if you can make it through it without looking away or falling asleep. IMDB categorizes it as a documentary, which I do not agree with, but it is certainly experimental. The music is quite cool.

B- (not that it is really possible to grade this one)

Preliminary SAG Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Screen Actors’ Guild Awards contenders for the given category. Predictions will be revisited following the announcement of the Golden Globe Awards nominations, which often solidifies the contenders. This category is specific to SAG, and it is one of the most fun because it recognizes all of the actors working together rather than merely the performance of one. Nominated films rarely match up 100% with Oscar nominees for Best Picture (2001 and 2004 are exceptions, though SAG had six nominated films in 2004). Nominated films range from those that truly embody the idea of the ensemble (“Bobby”) to those with only a few core cast members (2004 again, when “Sideways”, “Hotel Rwanda”, and “Million Dollar Baby” were all nominated).

Previous winners:
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
CRASH
SIDEWAYS
THE RETURN OF THE KING
CHICAGO
GOSFORD PARK
TRAFFIC
AMERICAN BEAUTY
SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE
THE FULL MONTY
THE BIRDCAGE
APOLLO 13

Opening note: It is always possible that American Gangster will get nominated though it hardly deserves it or that the bizarre collection of actors and actresses from I’m Not There will make a surprise appearance. As to the rest of the contenders, I have yet to find a film whose presence would be as pleasantly shocking as that of either “The Station Agent” (2003) or “Hustle & Flow” (2005).

The top contenders:
THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
While Brad Pitt and Casey Affleck are front-and-center for a good portion of the film, this really is an ensemble effort that pays off very well with some terrific supporting performances. I think the western genre and the fact that only two of the actors really have big roles while some of the ensemble is hardly in the film (Mary-Louise Parker) may reduce the film’s chances here.

ATONEMENT
Starring popular young actors James McAvoy and Keira Knightley and featuring a cameo by the likes of Vanessa Redgrave. Sounds tailor-made for a nomination to me. Different actresses playing the role is also a good thing for creating a cohesive ensemble working together.

CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
They are sure to all be having fun, but will audiences? It is still too early to tell whether the powerhouse cast including Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, and Philip Seymour Hoffman will sit well with voters. I imagine it may do just fine with this crowd and very possibly make the top five.

EASTERN PROMISES
Viggo Mortensen, Naomi Watts, Armin Mueller-Stahl, Vincent Cassel, and a handful of other actors make up the cast of this dark thriller. The film was a while ago, but SAG is exactly the type of branch which might recognize this film’s cast since neither Mortensen or Watts is likely to make it onto their lists.

GONE BABY GONE
This is the surprise underdog nominee I am putting my full backing behind. Casey Affleck leads a terrific cast including Ed Harris, Morgan Freeman, Amy Ryan, and Michelle Monaghan. This is just the film that might fly under the radar and make an appearance here.

HAIRSPRAY
In recent years, hit musicals “Dreamgirls” and “Chicago” have showed up in this category. I do not think “Hairspray” will go as far towards the Oscars, sweeping up dozens of awards along the way, but I think it could make a final stand here for lack of any major competition.

JUNO
It can easily be called this year’s “Little Miss Sunshine”; the only hiccup is that only two performers are receiving a lot of buzz (Ellen Page and Jennifer Garner). The rest of the cast is uniformly great, but no one stands out. That can be an issue with a comedy, but I think “Juno” should by default take the comedy slot this year, beating out “Knocked Up”, “Superbad” (wouldn’t that be fun, though?), and “Waitress”.

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
The Coen Brothers direct a cast that includes Josh Brolin, Tommy Lee Jones, Javier Bardem, and Woody Harrelson. This is the kind of film that delights in giving bit performers extended scenes that are memorable and amusing. While I was not blown away by the ensemble effort here, I am fairly certain that SAG voters will be. Back in 1996, the Coen Brothers’ “Fargo” somehow missed out on a nomination in this category with a far better (and pretty much unbeatable) ensemble.

THE SAVAGES
The problem here is that the cast is limited to three actors. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Laura Linney, and Philip Bosco can surely carry a movie all by themselves, but I think they would need at least one other cast member to make the cut. Only one film has ever been nominated with a cast of three, and that film went on to win the Oscar for Best Picture – “Million Dollar Baby”.

SWEENEY TODD
This is the movie musical that could take on “Hairspray” this year. None of Tim Burton’s previous efforts, most notably “Big Fish”, has managed to break into this category, so my gut tells me “Sweeney Todd” will miss out on this award, though that should not affect its chances elsewhere too much.

Current predictions:
ATONEMENT
GONE BABY GONE
HAIRSPRAY
JUNO
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

Preliminary SAG Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Screen Actors’ Guild Awards contenders for the given category. Predictions will be revisited following the announcement of the Golden Globe Awards nominations, which often solidifies the contenders. SAG categories often match up 60-100% with corresponding Oscar categories, though SAG tends to recognize some more independent fare every once in a while. This category often favors well-liked actresses who had roles in movies that should have been successes but pretty much tanked, such as Cloris Leachman for “Spanglish”. This category also likes younger actresses.

Last year’s winner:
JENNIFER HUDSON, DREAMGIRLS

The top contenders:
SAIORSE RONAN, ATONEMENT
The buzz is still strong for Ronan in this well-reviewed film. If she earns a Golden Globe nomination, she should have no trouble popping up on this list, but otherwise, she may have to wait for Oscar time. SAG rarely nominates previously unknown stars without a precursor nod from the Globes.

MARISA TOMEI, BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD
As I think about it more and more, I really do wish her role had been far more substantial since she did a great job in her limited scenes. “My Cousin Vinny” was before SAG’s time and Tomei did miss out on a nod for 2001’s “In the Bedroom”, but it is her bizarre nomination without mentions from any other groups for “Unhook the Stars” in 1996 that makes me think she might have a fighting chance.

JULIA ROBERTS, CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
Roberts has only one career nomination (and win) in the history of the SAG Awards, for 2000’s “Erin Brockovich”. She has not had any major leading roles which resulted in nominations elsewhere, with the exception of a few 90s romantic comedies the Golden Globes liked. Recent dramatic efforts “Mona Lisa Smile” and “Closer” resulted in zero nominations for Roberts, so this film could be the comeback that brings her back into the awards circuit. Do keep in mind the SAG reception of “Closer”.

AMY RYAN, GONE BABY GONE
While SAG does not always introduce unknowns, it often is the first place an actress who got the best reviews from her film pops up, such as Amy Adams for “Junebug” or Keisha Castle-Hughes for “Whale Rider”. Unless “Gone Baby Gone” gets a major awards push, Ryan could be the only element of the film to make it through awards season. People will have to remember the film, whose October release date is a bit on the early side.

MICHELLE PFEIFFER, HAIRSPRAY
I am feeling right now that SAG will wholeheartedly embrace “Hairspray” if only because there is little else to nominate and everyone I know generally enjoyed the buoyant musical. Pfeiffer has a fun villain role that is not too far-fetched and she plays it well enough. Pfeiffer was last here in 2002 for “White Oleander”.

CATE BLANCHETT, I’M NOT THERE
Blanchett should be one of the most popular actresses this year with this role and her role reprisal in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”. This performance is easily the most talked-about female supporting performance and Blanchett is really good in the film. She has three previous nominations, including one for 2001’s “Bandits” of all movies, so I feel like she is pretty safe.

JENNIFER GARNER, JUNO
I am not convinced that Garner will do exceptionally well with any awards voters, but her character is fairly sympathetic and she is a SAG winner (for “Alias”). This part is a completely different one from her former ABC TV show and I think voters might be impressed with her dramatic acting minus all the action and fighting of “Alias”.

JENNIFER JASON LEIGH, MARGOT AT THE WEDDING
I think there is very little chance Leigh will pop up anywhere along the awards timeline, but previous nominees like Marisa Tomei and Cloris Leachman for roles that did not end up being awards contenders at all make me suspect that Leigh could surprise here. Do not expect a win by any means, but there is at least a slight chance she could make an appearance.

TILDA SWINTON, MICHAEL CLAYTON
Provided that people still remember and like the film by SAG nominations time, Swinton could easily manage a nomination. This could very well be the fall-off point for “Michael Clayton” if the film does meagerly well at the Globes and then gets shut-out by all the guilds. Swinton has the best chance out of the whole cast because she has the most to do in the film.

KELLY MACDONALD, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Sure, it is a small role, but Macdonald gives it her very best and she is an actress who has yet to have a major role, at least film-wise. The HBO TV movie “The Girl in the Café” earned her an Emmy award, but no mention from SAG. I think the film should do well with nominations in the Supporting Actor category for both Javier Bardem and Tommy Lee Jones, but those may well be the only spots where the film appears.

Current predictions:
SAIORSE RONAN, ATONEMENT
MARISA TOMEI, BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD
AMY RYAN, GONE BABY GONE
MICHELLE PFEIFFER, HAIRSPRAY
CATE BLANCHETT, I’M NOT THERE

Worse Than You Could Imagine: Walk Hard

Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Advance Screening)
Directed by Jake Kasdan
To be released December 21, 2007

First of all, I promise it was a free screening. It should have been a sign that I was seeing this kind of film amongst all these awards contenders. Yet I still went in blindly hoping that maybe it would make me laugh like "Talladega Nights" did, even though I was not a big fan of that film. From this movie's first line - "I need Cox" - which illicited laughter from some audience members, I knew there was no hope. There are glimmers of things that could potentially be funny, and I will admit I sort of smiled maybe three times throughout the film. The worst thing is that the cast is sprinkled with so many talented actors who are all saddled with the most unfunny roles they could get. I do not know why John C. Reilly and Jenna Fischer thought headlining this film would be a good idea for their careers. Two terrific cameos are ruined by the script, but worth watching: four well-known comedians as the Beatles (I will not tell you who they are so there is something to look forward to if you for some reason see it) and Jonah Hill as Dewey's brother. The film is also not effective as a parody. Its repeated destruction of the dramatic parts of "Ray" and "Walk the Line" is horrid, and the comedy could be clever if it was not dumbed down so much. I had to immediately cleanse myself of the music that got stuck in my head by listening to "A Mighty Wind" as soon as I got back from the movie. Entertainment Weekly just named Judd Apatow the smartest person in Hollywood, but after this film, I am no longer so sure. This is easily the worst film of the year to this point, worse even than "Goya's Ghosts", a feat I hardly thought possible.

F-

National Board of Review Winners

I correctly picked the best film of the year ("No Country for Old Men"), and I got half of the top ten, while three of my predictions were classified as being "top independent films". It turns out that the number one film is separate from the top ten, which I did not know. More commentary below. Awards are as follows:

Best Film: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Best Director: TIM BURTON, Sweeney Todd
Best Actor: GEORGE CLOONEY, Michael Clayton
Best Actress: JULIE CHRISTIE, Away From Her
Best Supporting Actor: CASEY AFFLECK, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Best Supporting Actress: AMY RYAN, Gone Baby Gone
Best Foreign Film: THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
Best Documentary: BODY OF WAR
Best Animated Feature: RATATOUILLE
Best Ensemble Cast: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: EMILE HIRSCH, Into The Wild
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: ELLEN PAGE, Juno
Best Directorial Debut: BEN AFFLECK, Gone Baby Gone
Best Original Screenplay (tie):
DIABLO CODY, Juno and NANCY OLIVER, Lars and the Real Girl
Best Adapted Screenplay: JOEL COEN and ETHAN COEN, No Country For Old Men

Top Ten Films:
THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD
ATONEMENT
THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM
THE BUCKET LIST
INTO THE WILD
JUNO
THE KITE RUNNER
LARS AND THE REAL GIRL
MICHAEL CLAYTON
SWEENEY TODD

Top Five Foreign Films:
4 MONTHS, 3 WEEKS, 2 DAYS
THE BAND’S VISIT
THE COUNTERFEITERS
LA VIE EN ROSE
LUST, CAUTION

Top Five Documentary Films
DARFUR NOW
IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON
NANKING
TAXI TO THE DARKSIDE
TOOTS

Top Independent Films
AWAY FROM HER
GREAT WORLD OF SOUND
HONEYDRIPPER
IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
A MIGHTY HEART
THE NAMESAKE
ONCE
THE SAVAGES
STARTING OUT IN THE EVENING
WAITRESS

George Clooney is to me the most unexpected and undeserving choice. I am not surprised that "Michael Clayton" made it into the top ten list but Clooney's inclusion gives me pause and indicates that the film may do better than I had initially thought. I am ecstatic about "The Assassination of Jesse James" and it is also great that "Once", "Waitress", and "A Mighty Heart" are getting some recognition. "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" for Best Foreign Film is simply put an excellent choice. The surprise inclusions in the top ten list are "The Bourne Ultimatum" and "The Bucket List". I think the former is like the American Film Institute's inclusion of "Inside Man", and that "The Bucket List" may prove to be throwaway fare, but watch out for Jack Nicholson at the Golden Globes. The other big shocker, which also did well with the Satellite Awards, is "Lars and the Real Girl", which cracked the top ten as well as tying with the number one buzzed-about screenplay of the year, "Juno". I do think that Ryan Gosling is now a lock for the Golden Globes Best Actor category, and the film may well make the list for Best Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical. I found the screenplay to be slightly less exciting than I had hoped but it sure was inventive and well-written. Other notes: "La Vie en Rose" still made it into the list of top foreign films despite Cotillard's exclusion, and "Sicko" was not mentioned in the foreign film list. At least "Darfur Now" is picking up buzz, because after the Oscars deemed it ineligible, I started to think my having seen it was pointless.

Major conclusions from this: "Lars and the Real Girl" may do better than expected, "No Country for Old Men" should not be underestimated, "Gone Baby Gone" and "The Assassination of Jesse James" have good buzz, and three foreign films not eligible for the corresponding Oscar should make a good showing at awards announcements: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly", "Lust, Caution", and "La Vie en Rose" (not to mention "The Kite Runner"). More soon on all the awards craziness as critics groups begin unveiling their awards.

Preliminary SAG Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Screen Actors’ Guild Awards contenders for the given category. Predictions will be revisited following the announcement of the Golden Globe Awards nominations, which often solidifies the contenders. SAG categories often match up 60-100% with corresponding Oscar categories, though SAG tends to recognize some more independent fare every once in a while. Last year’s nominees in this category presented one of the biggest surprises of the awards season, introducing Jackie Earle Haley and Djimon Hounsou as serious contenders and placing Leonardo DiCaprio in the supporting category for “The Departed”. There will obviously be major overlap with and similarities to the Golden Globe predictions.

Last year’s winner:
EDDIE MURPHY, DREAMGIRLS

The top conteders:
RUSSELL CROWE, AMERICAN GANGSTER
Crowe has been rewarded with four SAG nominations, winning one in 2001 for “A Beautiful Mind”. He made it in for “Cinderella Man”, a performance far less recognized by other awards guilds. Having seen “American Gangster”, I cannot believe that Crowe would realistically get in, but his awards track record despite his public behavior is astounding.

CASEY AFFLECK, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
Affleck is excellent as Robert Ford and more than holds his own against Brad Pitt. I think the film by the time of the SAG nominations announcement should have picked up enough buzz to help Affleck manage a nomination, but fresher films with unexpected candidates could pose a problem.

ETHAN HAWKE, BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD
Hawke has not had many major roles in the past few years, but picked up a SAG nomination in this category in 2001 for “Training Day”. Hawke does have a great role in “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead”, and at this point this seems like the definitive indie that could crack its way onto nomination lists with a stronger force than expected.

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
Hoffman has the same problem as his co-stars Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts. Mike Nichols’ last film, “Closer”, was shut out by SAG and nearly all other groups after a warm reception by the Golden Globes. Hoffman also has two other roles, one of which could be seen as supporting (“Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead”), and such category confusion can mean an outright snub (Meryl Streep missed out on nods for both “Adaptation” and “The Hours” in 2002 because she cancelled herself out).

ED HARRIS, GONE BABY GONE
The performance is terrific but the role is regrettably small. Harris missed out on nominations for both “The Truman Show” and “Pollock”, which both went on to garner him Oscar nominations. He was here five years ago for “The Hours” for another small but fantastic role, so if the film reaches a large enough audience, Harris may receive a nomination.

JOHN TRAVOLTA, HAIRSPRAY
I know it seems ridiculous, and it is. Travolta is funny in his cross-dressing performance in the hit musical, but hardly worthy of an actors’ prize. Some also find his performance offensive and unfaithful to the original character. Travolta received a SAG nomination during the awards’ first year for his lead performance in “Pulp Fiction”. The SAG Awards do allow for the more humorous performances, recognizing in 1996 both Hank Azaria and Nathan Lane for “The Birdcage”. Until more serious contenders emerge, Travolta appears to be at the front of the pack.

HAL HOLBROOK, INTO THE WILD
His brief performance in “Into the Wild” is extremely sympathetic and it is hard not to like him. His chances really depend on how widely “Into the Wild” is recognized. Without strong support for the film, Holbrook’s performance will not be talked about as much and easily fall through the cracks.

JAVIER BARDEM, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Bardem delivers an unbelievable performance in “No Country for Old Men” which outdoes every single one of his castmates and has critics everywhere talking. Bardem’s snub in 2000 for “Before Night Falls” should easily be overlooked given the reputation of the Coen Brothers and the reaction to Bardem’s performance.

TOMMY LEE JONES, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
He is hardly in the movie, and is far better in “In the Valley of Elah”, but something tells me Jones will find himself with two SAG nominations come nominations announcement day. Very often SAG chooses a performer who has done great work recently and nominates him for a performance that does not seem to make much sense. Recent examples include Chris Cooper for “Seabiscuit” in 2003 and Don Cheadle for “Crash” in 2005. This tendency could work against Jones, who has two performances this year, as it did for Terrence Howard in 2005, when he found himself with zero nominations after two great performances in “Hustle & Flow” and “Crash”.

PAUL DANO, THERE WILL BE BLOOD
This one will be too hard to gauge until the first awards nominations come out, since the film is not being released until December 26. Dano was excellent in last year’s “Little Miss Sunshine”, but it is unclear if his role in Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest film is substantial enough as well as whether he carries it effectively. The supporting actor in a film with a powerhouse performance by an established actor is often rewarded, like Ethan Hawke opposite Denzel Washington in “Training Day”.

Current predictions:
CASEY AFFLECK, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
ED HARRIS, GONE BABY GONE
JOHN TRAVOLTA, HAIRSPRAY
JAVIER BARDEM, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
TOMMY LEE JONES, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

National Board of Review Predictions

All these awards keep sneaking up on me! If not for AwardsDaily, I might have completely forgotten the unveiling of the National Board of Review's top ten films of the year, as well as a smattering of other commendations. This is the real beginning of the awards season, since obviously no one looks at the Satellite Award nominations too closely. This is where a film can get a jump-start, but an omission does not necessarily mean a film will not do well with ensuing awards. The reserve may also be true: "The History Boys" and "The Painted Veil" went nowhere after this and "Notes on a Scandal" continually missed out on the top prize at different awards groups.

Last year's top ten:
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
BABEL
BLOOD DIAMOND
THE DEPARTED
THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
THE HISTORY BOYS
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
NOTES ON A SCANDAL
THE PAINTED VEIL

Predictions for this year:
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN (#1)
THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
ATONEMENT
IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
INTO THE WILD
MICHAEL CLAYTON
JUNO
ONCE
THE SAVAGES
THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Spoilers may be "3:10 to Yuma" (ick) or "Sweeney Todd".

More predictions:
Best Actor: JAMES MCAVOY, ATONEMENT
Best Actress: MARION COTILLARD, LA VIE EN ROSE
Best Supporting Actor: JAVIER BARDEM, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Best Supporting Actress: CATE BLANCHETT, I'M NOT THERE
Best Director: THE COEN BROTHERS, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Best Directorial Debut: BEN AFFLECK, GONE BABY GONE
Best Screenplay, Original: JUNO
Best Screenplay, Adapted: ATONEMENT
Best Documentary: SICKO
Best Foreign Language Film: PERSEPOLIS
Best Breakthrough Performance - Male: CASEY AFFLECK, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
Best Breakthrough Performance - Female: ELLEN PAGE, JUNO
Best Animated Feature: RATATOUILLE
Best Ensemble: JUNO

Let's hope for some good surprises. Reactions tomorrow.

Poster-to-DVD Frustration

I am always a fan of a clever poster. And I sometime do not even mind floating heads. My walls are currently adorned with posters cut out from the New York Times Sunday Arts & Leisure section for the following films: The Assassination of Jesse James, In the Valley of Elah, No Country for Old Men, Gone Baby Gone, Charlie Wilson's War, Sweeney Todd, American Gangster, I Am Legend, and The Golden Compass. Additionally, I have real posters for Bee Movie, Into the Wild, Across the Universe, Knocked Up, Kill Bill, The Darjeeling Limited, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, and TV series "Dexter" and "24". Some of those will soon be replaced by NY Times ads for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, I'm Not There, Atonement, and The Savages. As you can tell, I am not that selective with the posters I choose to put up.

But what really gets me is when a terrific poster is completely ruined when the transition to DVD is made. In cases like "Find Me Guilty", the poster is awful and somehow the DVD ends up being even worse by taking out the background elements. I would never have seen that movie anyway, but I am saddened about a film I did like which was butchered during the transition to DVD. First Snow, starring Guy Pearce, is a mysterious thriller which had the poster with Pearce walking through the snow below. Not terribly clever, but not bad at all. It made me want to see it. But the DVD cover destroys all that by having all the characters look dumb and brightening the whole thing so that there is no longer an air of mystery. I lament this unfortunate event but hope that people will still see this terrific but little-seen film (it grossed only $300,000 worldwide). Don't judge a book by its cover, especially not in the case of this DVD.

Preliminary SAG Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Screen Actors’ Guild Awards contenders for the given category. Predictions will be revisited following the announcement of the Golden Globe Awards nominations, which often solidifies the contenders. SAG categories often match up 60-100% with corresponding Oscar categories, though SAG tends to recognize some more independent fare every once in a while.

Last year’s winner:
HELEN MIRREN, THE QUEEN

The top contenders:
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY, ATONEMENT
She is rumored not to have a substantial role in the highly anticipated and raved-about film. The fact that she missed out on a nomination two years ago for “Pride & Prejudice” does not help matters. The force of the film, and the fact that Knightley seems to be choosing more mature roles these days, may overcome those obstacles.

JULIE CHRISTIE, AWAY FROM HER
Christie is a revered actress who chose a challenging role and delivered a performance which earned amazing reviews. Christie missed out on a nomination for 1997’s “Afterglow” before earning an Oscar nod, but I think that “Away from Her”, or at least her performance, should be more widely embraced and easily earn her a SAG nomination.

CATE BLANCHETT, ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
Blanchett’s performance is not nearly as good as it was back in 1998, when Blanchett lost this award to Gwyneth Paltrow for “Shakespeare in Love” (the travesty!). Still, competition is weak and the recent awards love for Blanchett, as well as her supporting role this year in “I’m Not There”, may catapult her to the top of the nominations list.

ELLEN PAGE, JUNO
Page is the breakout star of a comedy that is sure to be a hit. Comedies are not really a handicap at the SAG Awards, but Page’s age is a factor she will have to overcome. Since the inception of the awards in 1994, only one actress as young as Page has been nominated, and that was for a serious role: Evan Rachel Wood for “Thirteen” in 2003.

TANG WEI, LUST, CAUTION
The few people who saw it loved Wei’s performance, but there is literally no buzz for this film. The reason I place Wei on this list is that foreign performers have had great success in this category in the past few years (Catalina Sandino Moreno for “Maria Full of Grace”, Ziyi Zhang for “Memoirs of a Geisha”, and Penelope Cruz for “Volver”). With the current trend, Wei should easily find her way to a nomination, but I think that is highly unlikely.

ANGELINA JOLIE, A MIGHTY HEART
I am not sure if everyone is underestimating this performance or if I am simply overestimating it. It was very small and early, and voters will likely be remembering Jolie as Grendel’s mother in “Beowulf”. Still, I think Jolie can go the distance much like the similarly serious “United 93” managed to do last year despite an early release and controversial subject matter.

LAURA LINNEY, THE SAVAGES
Linney is a respected actress with two recent nominations from the people at SAG. She was snubbed for a similarly dry performance in “The Squid and the Whale” two years ago, but she should have a much easier time making it in this year, provided voters like the film, which they definitely should.

HELENA BONHAM CARTER, SWEENEY TODD
I am not sure if she is definitely a lead, but SAG is usually generous with category promotions (Jennifer Connelly was considered a lead for “A Beautiful Mind”). Carter has not had too many big roles lately and has not figured into an awards race since 1997’s “The Wings of the Dove”, for which she received a nomination. As I commented with Depp, I think “Sweeney Todd” will be passed over by SAG.

MARION COTILLARD, LA VIE EN ROSE
Did I mention that foreign performers have a great shot in this category? And that Cotillard has received unqualified raves for her performance, which I can say is absolutely mesmerizing. I see no possible scenario in which she is left off the list.

KERI RUSSELL, WAITRESS
I am really just making stuff up here. The best actress race is usually down to about seven or so candidates (Wei, Irglova, and Russell would be the fillers for this race), but I want to include ten to capture the fringe-possibilities. Russell was terrific in the film and has been getting a lot of work lately (“August Rush”, a guest spot on “Scrubs”), but I think her film was too small and too long ago. Plus, it is really only a seven-person race.

Current predictions:
JULIE CHRISTIE, AWAY FROM HER
ELLEN PAGE, JUNO
ANGELINA JOLIE, A MIGHTY HEART
LAURA LINNEY, THE SAVAGES
MARION COTILLARD, LA VIE EN ROSE

Preliminary SAG Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Screen Actors’ Guild Awards contenders for the given category. Predictions will be revisited following the announcement of the Golden Globe Awards nominations, which often solidifies the contenders. SAG categories often match up 60-100% with corresponding Oscar categories, though SAG tends to recognize some more independent fare every once in a while.

Last year’s winner:
FOREST WHITAKER, THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND

The top contenders:
DENZEL WASHINGTON, AMERICAN GANGSTER
He is a powerhouse actor in a meaty role. Some people liked “American Gangster”, others did not. I think the Globes will really tell whether “American Gangster” and its stars will have a fighting chance throughout awards season. My gut tells me Washington is out.

BRAD PITT, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
The role is a terrific one, and Pitt plays it well, but his subtlety may not catch voters’ eyes. Pitt missed out on a SAG nomination twelve years ago after winning a Golden Globe for his supporting performance in “Twelve Monkeys”, but I think he has markedly matured now and his fellow actors may respect that.

JAMES MCAVOY, ATONEMENT
He is a budding young actor with multiple great roles this year. He should have been here last year in the supporting category for “The Last King of Scotland”, and I doubt SAG voters will snub him again this year, especially given the roaring success “Atonement” is supposed to be.

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD
I am hesitant to say which film Hoffman is more of a contender for – “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead” or “The Savages”. Hoffman is a past winner in this category (for “Capote”) and was previously nominated when other guilds snubbed him (for “Flawless” in 1999). I do not think either of his roles will be enough to get Hoffman in this year, but he is certainly a go-to independent choice.

TOM HANKS, CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
Hanks is having fun in this film but I do not think he fits the role.. What worries me as far as Hanks goes is that Mike Nichols’ last film, “Closer”, garnered Golden Globe wins for stars Clive Owen and Natalie Portman, who were then both snubbed by SAG. Maybe the screenplay by Aaron Sorkin (whose “West Wing” has berthed many SAG winners) will boost the actors’ likeability of Nichols’ characters.

JOHN CUSACK, GRACE IS GONE
I am not quite certain why I am putting Cusack here, since I think the performance is probably overrated, the film does not look great, and its release date has been pushed back. But I feel like if Cusack is going to turn up anywhere, it will be here. He is an actor who has hardly ever been rewarded in any way and this could be just the time and place.

TOMMY LEE JONES, IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
He is an esteemed actor but his last awards stretch was a year before the SAG Awards came into existence (“The Fugitive” in 1993). No precursors is never a problem for SAG, and I think that if the quality of Jones’ performance can eclipse the lukewarm reception to the film, Jones should be in for sure.

GEORGE CLOONEY, MICHAEL CLAYTON
They gave him the award for a performance he did not deserve it for two years ago, so why not now? Clooney was just more subdued in “Syriana”, and the combination of that same subtlety mixed with a bit of fiery lawyer-fixer rage may be just what SAG voters are looking for. I think “Michael Clayton” is by no means (though it should have been) an actors’ film, and may suffer the consequences.

JOHNNY DEPP, SWEENEY TODD
I am torn on Depp’s chances. His win here for “Pirates of the Caribbean” four years ago and the overwhelming reception for 2002’s “Chicago” seems to indicate that Globe voters do in fact love musicals. I just do not think that “Sweeney Todd” is the kind of movie that screams for recognition for its actors. I could well be wrong, but I have a feeling that “Sweeney Todd” will do well at the Golden Globes and skip straight to the Oscars.

DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, THERE WILL BE BLOOD
If there is one lock in this category, it is Day-Lewis. The film looks to be interesting, but most definitely Day-Lewis has a role full of scenery-chewing. He won this award in 2002 for “Gangs of New York” and his latest role looks to be very similar, not in a been-there-done-that way, but rather a he-is-going-to-be-awesome way.

Current predictions:
BRAD PITT, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
JAMES MCAVOY, ATONEMENT
JOHN CUSACK, GRACE IS GONE (I do not know about this one)
TOMMY LEE JONES, IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Satellite Awards Reaction

Not so unexpectedly, my prediction rate was fairly low, at 43% overall, slightly better for the film side of things. I correctly predicted 58 out of 132 nominees, or 42%. I am most proud to say that I got five out of the six documentary nominees (going for “Rape of Europa” instead of the selected “King of Kong”). Additionally, I predicted four out of six of the Best Motion Picture – Drama nominees (I suspected the “Away from Her” love) and the same in the Best Director category. “The Lookout” played an unexpected part in things, garnering five nominations, including one for Best Motion Picture – Drama. Films like “Sweeney Todd” and “Charlie Wilson’s War” were completely shut out, with others like “In the Valley of Elah” and “There Will Be Blood” garnering only one nomination. Supposed comedy/musical stars Laura Linney (“The Savages”) and Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”) were shifted to the drama category, and Cate Blanchett received a promotion to the lead category for “I’m Not There”. “La Vie en Rose” shocked by receiving the most nominations (seven).

When looking at these nominees, it is important to recognize those are truly non-contenders. Tilda Swinton will not be receiving an Oscar nomination for “Stephanie Daley” (I thought I was the only one who saw that). “Shoot ‘Em Up” should not appear on anyone’s predictions for Best Picture come Oscar morning. I will go into the supporting categories in detail but the rest is generally self-explanatory.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Emmanuelle Seigner, "La Vie En Rose" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone" (Miramax Films)
Taraji P. Henson "Talk to Me" (Focus Features)
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster" (Universal Pictures)

Emmanuelle Seigner and Taraji P. Henson have pretty much a zero shot at Oscar. The chances for Swinton, Ryan, and Dee should all shoot up as a result of this list (not the guild itself, but rather the fact that people obviously like the performances), despite weak reception for each of their films. Saoirse Ronan is officially the frontrunner for this category, but one should remember that Cate Blanchett will probably end up in this category for “I’m Not There”. The actresses with smaller roles missed out on nominations despite stellar reception for their films (“Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead” and “No Country for Old Men”). And this list does not make it look for the comedy actresses, such as Leslie Mann and Jennifer Garner. I think this list should only match up at most 3/5 with Oscar, but Swinton will likely fall out before nomination day and only Ronan and Ryan will be left in.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jeff Daniels, "The Lookout" (Miramax Films)
Brian Cox, "Zodiac" (Paramount Pictures)
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Ben Foster, "3:10 To Yuma" (Lionsgate)
Javier Bardem, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James" (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Affleck and Bardem should have no problem going the distance, but I am pretty sure Cox’s inclusion is a fluke. Wilkinson has an uphill battle, especially if Tilda Swinton takes most of the attention for “Michael Clayton”. This is a huge resurgence for both Jeff Daniels and Ben Foster, whose films came out long ago but garnered them raves. I doubt either will become a major contender, especially since this list clearly ignores players like Hal Holbrook, Paul Dano, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Ed Harris. Only time will tell.

The rest of the nominees:
ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
Julie Christie, "Away From Her" (Lionsgate)
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart" (Paramount Vantage)
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie En Rose" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
Tilda Swinton, "Stephanie Daley" (Regent Releasing)
Keira Knightley, "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Laura Linney, "The Savages" (Fox Searchlight)

ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
Denzel Washington, "American Gangster" (Universal Pictures)
Josh Brolin, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
Christian Bale, "Rescue Dawn" (MGM)
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"(Roadside Attractions)
Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah" (Warner Independent Pictures)

ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Katherine Heigl, "Knocked Up" (Universal Pictures)
Amy Adams, "Enchanted" (Walt Disney Pictures)
Ellen Page, "Juno" (Fox Searchlight)
Emily Mortimer, "Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
Nicole Kidman, "Margot at the Wedding" (Paramount Vantage)
Cate Blanchett, "I’m Not There" (The Weinstein Company)

ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Richard Gere, "The Hoax" Miramax
Seth Rogen, "Knocked Up" (Universal Pictures)
Ben Kingsley You Kill Me Ifc Films
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
Clive Owen, "Shoot ‘Em Up" (New Line Cinema)
Don Cheadle, "Talk to Me" (Focus Features)

MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
"The Lookout" Miramax
"Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead" (ThinkFilm)
"Away From Her" (Lionsgate)
"Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
"No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
"3:10 To Yuma" (Lionsgate)

MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
"Hairspray" (New Line Cinema)
"Juno"(Fox Searchlight)
"Shoot ‘Em Up" (New Line Cinema)
"Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
"Knocked Up" (Universal Pictures)
"Margot at the Wedding" (Paramount Vantage)

MOTION PICTURE, FOREIGN LANGUAGE
"Ten Canoes" Australia (Palm Pictures)
"Offside Iran" (Sony Pictures Classics)
"La Vie En Rose" France (Picturehouse Entertainment)
"Lust, Caution" China (Focus Features)
"4 Months 3 Weeks & 2 Days" Romania Ifc Films
"The Orphanage" Spain (Picturehouse Entertainment)

MOTION PICTURE, ANIMATED OR MIXED MEDIA
"Persepolis" (Sony Pictures Classics)
"The Simpsons Movie" Twentieth Century Fox
"The Golden" Compass (New Line Cinema)
""Ratatouille"" (Buena Vista Pictures)
"300" Warner Brothers
"Beowulf" (Paramount Pictures)

MOTION PICTURE, DOCUMENTARY
"The King Of Kong" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
"The 11th Hour Warner" (Independent Pictures)
"Sicko" (Lionsgate)
"No End In Sight"(Magnolia Pictures)
"Darfur Now Warner" (Independent Pictures)
"Lake Of Fire" (ThinkFilm)

DIRECTOR:
Ang Lee, "Lust, Caution" (Focus Features)
Olivier Dahan, "La Vie En Rose" (Picture House Entertainment)
David Cronenberg, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
Sidney Lumet, "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" (ThinkFilm)
Sarah Polley, "Away From Her" (Lionsgate)

SCREENPLAY, ORIGINAL
Scott Frank, "The Lookout" (Miramax Films)
Diablo Cody, "Juno" (Fox Searchlight)
Kelly Masterson, "Before the Devil Knows You’Re Dead" (ThinkFilm)
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Nancy Oliver,"Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
Steven Knight, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)

SCREENPLAY, ADAPTED
James Vanderbilt, "Zodiac" (Paramount Pictures)
Christopher Hampton "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
David Benioff, "The Kite Runner" (Paramount Vantage)
Sarah Polley,"Away From Her" (Lionsgate)
Wang Hui Ling, James Schamus,"Lust, Caution" (Focus Features)

ORIGINAL SCORE
Dario Marianelli, "Atonement" (Focus Features)
James Newton Howard, "The Lookout" (Miramax Films)
Michael Giacchino, "Ratatouille" (Buena Vista Pictures)
Alberto Iglesias, "The Kite Runner" (Paramount Vantage)
Howard Shore, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
Nick Cave, "The Assassination of Jesse James" (Warner Bros. Pictures)

ORIGINAL SONG
"Do You Feel Me"/Diane Warren, "American Gangster" (Universal Pictures)
"If You Want Me"/Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova, "Once" (Fox Searchlight)
"Come So Far"/Marc Shaiman, "Hairspray" (New Line Cinema)
"Rise"/Eddie Vedder, "Into The Wild" (Paramount Vantage)
"Grace Is Gone"/Clint Eastwood & Carole Bayer Sager, "Grace Is Gone" (The Weinstein Company)
"Lyra"/Kate Bush, "The Golden Compass" (New Line Cinema)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Harris Savides, "Zodiac" (Paramount Pictures)
Robert Elswit, "There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage)
Bruno Delbonnel, "Across The Universe" (Revolution Studios)
Janusz Kaminski, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Miramax Films)
Roger Deakins, "The Assassination Of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Henry Braham, "The Golden Compass" (New Line Cinema)

VISUAL EFFECTS
Scott Farrar, "Transformers" (Paramount Pictures)
Michael Fink, "The Golden Compass" (New Line Cinema)
Chris Watts, Grant Freckelton, Derek Wentworth, Daniel Leduc, "300" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Peter Chiang, Charlie Noble, David Vickery, Mattias Lindahl, "The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal Pictures)
Thomas Schelesny, Matt Jacobs, Tom Gibbons, "Enchanted" (Walt Disney Pictures)
Jerome Chen, Sean Phillips, Kenn Mc Donald, Michael Lantieri, "Beowulf" (Paramount Pictures)

FILM EDITING
Pietro Scalia, "American Gangster" (Universal Pictures)
Jill Savitt, "The Lookout" (Miramax)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax)
Richard Marizy, "La Vie En Rose" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
Christopher Rouse, "The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal Pictures)
Ronald Sanders, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)

SOUND (EDITING & MIXING)
Mike Prestwood-Smith, Mark Taylor, Glenn Freemantle, "The Golden Compass" (New Line Cinema)
Nikolas Javelle, Jean-Paul Hurier, "La Vie En Rose" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
Christopher Boyes, Paul Massey, Lee Orloff, George Watters II, "Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World’S End" (Buena Vista Pictures)
Scott Heckler, Eric Norris, Derek Vanderhorst, "300" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Karen Baker Landers, Kirk Francis, Per Hallberg, "The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal Pictures)
Tod Maitland, Skip Lievsay, Rick Kline, Jeremy Peirson, "I Am Legend" (Warner Bros. Pictures)

ART DIRECTION & PRODUCTION DESIGN
Guy Dyas, David Allday, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Universal Pictures)
Patricia Norris, Martin Gendron, Troy Sizemore, "The Assassination Of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Dennis Davenport, David Gropman, "Hairspray" (New Line Cinema)
Mark Tildesley, "Sunshine" (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Gary Freeman, Stephen Morahan, Denis Schnegg, David Allday, Matthew Gray, Charles Wood, "Amazing Grace" (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Mark Friedberg, Peter Rogness, "Across the Universe" (Revolution Studios)

COSTUME DESIGN
Alexandra Byrne, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Universal Pictures)
Yvonne Blake, "Goya’s Ghosts" (Samuel Goldwyn Pictures)
Marit Allen, "La Vie En Rose" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
Rita Ryack, "Hairspray" (New Line Cinema)
Jenny Beavan, "Amazing Grace" (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Jacqueline Durran, "Antonement" (Focus Features)

Disappointing but Funny: Charlie Wilson's War

Charlie Wilson's War (Advance Screening)
Directed by Mike Nichols
To be released December 25, 2007

This odd film about a congressman working to help Afghanistan fight back against the Soviet Union is not a complete misfire, but with the team involved, it really should have been better. The biggest problem throughout the film is that it presents itself as a goofy, aloof dramatization yet it splices in extremely serious issues and the general plot of the film involves helping a repressed people being slaughtered without any hope of defense. This imbalance makes for an often hilarious but not quite satisfying experience. The direction and editing are off a bit, and the script by "West Wing" creator Aaron Sorkin is not as sharp and quick as it should be (though all the actors do talk very fast). Stars Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts are fine, but this is by no means an Oscar comeback for either of them (thought their pedigrees and awards history do not discount them completely). Hanks is not quite right for the role, as he is too inherently likeable to seem sleazy and womanizing. Roberts has a small role and her accent is a bit much. Philip Seymour Hoffman, on the other hand, is terrific in his supporting role as a sarcastic, deadpan CIA agent. His role, like the film, is often unexpectedly more serious and he does not have much to do in that case. I think this film may do well with the Golden Globes, but I have removed it from my Oscar predictions with the exception of Hoffman, who I think may make it in due to lack of competition. There is always the chance that this likeable cast and crew might be well-received by audiences and awards groups, but I, for one, am a bit let down.

B-

For the Record: Oscar Predictions

**UPDATED**
After seeing "Charlie Wilson's War", I think I am going to remove it from my predictions. It may still make it in, and I'm not too confident about my replacement choice ("Into the Wild"), but right now I just do not see "Charlie Wilson's War" making it in, especially not Roberts (but who will replace her??).

I am revising my Oscar predictions before the Golden Satellite award nominations. I previously posted predictions for the top eight categories on October 3rd. I have dropped "American Gangster" from the Best Picture lineup and replaced it with "Charlie Wilson's War". Neither of the supporting categories have gotten any clearer or easier to predict. I have added the additional categories and will be making continued changes to this list as time passes.

Best Picture
Atonement
Into the Wild
In the Valley of Elah
Once
No Country for Old Men

Best Director
Joe Wright, Atonement
David Cronenberg, Eastern Promises
Todd Haynes, I’m Not There
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
The Coen Brothers, No Country for Old Men

Best Actor
Brad Pitt, The Assassination of Jesse James
James McAvoy, Atonement
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Best Actress
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Ellen Page, Juno
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney, The Savages
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Ed Harris, Gone Baby Gone
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

Best Supporting Actress
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Marisa Tomei, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Kelly Macdonald, No Country for Old Men

Best Original Screenplay
In the Valley of Elah
Juno
Knocked Up
Ratatouille
The Savages

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Assassination of Jesse James
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men

Best Cinematography
The Assassination of Jesse James
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men

Best Film Editing
Atonement
Charlie Wilson’s War
Eastern Promises
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Best Art Direction
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Hairspray
Lust, Caution
Sweeney Todd

Best Costumes
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
The Golden Compass
Hairspray
Lust, Caution
Sweeney Todd

Best Original Score
Atonement
The Golden Compass
The Kite Runner
Ratatouille
There Will Be Blood

Best Original Song
Enchanted, “That’s How You Know”
Hairspray, “Come So Far”
Into the Wild, “Guaranteed”
Once, “Falling Slowly”
Once, “When Your Mind’s Made Up”

Best Sound
Beowulf
The Golden Compass
Hairspray
Sweeney Todd
Transformers

Best Sound Editing
Beowulf
Live Free or Die Hard
Pirates of the Caribbean 3
Spider-Man 3
Transformers

Best Make-Up
Beowulf
Love in the Time of Cholera
Sweeney Todd

Best Visual Effects
Beowulf
The Golden Compass
Transformers

Best Animated Film
Bee Movie
Persepolis
Ratatouille

Best Documentary
For the Bible Tells Me So
Lake of Fire
No End in Sight
The Rape of Europa
Sicko

Best Foreign Film
The Edge of Heaven
4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days
Persepolis
XXY
The Year My Parents Went on Vacation

Independent Spirit Award Nominations

I always tell myself that I am going to be vigilant about following every single awards guilds and keeping up with predictions, but I always seem to miss one or two. Today the Independent Spirit Award nominations were announced, which are not a great predictor for the Oscars or any other awards in that they are highly selective and the boundaries of eligibility are much broader. The Best Feature list is great, and includes "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly", "I'm Not There", "Juno", "A Mighty Heart", and Gus Van Sant's "Paranoid Park", which does not hit theatres until March of 2008. There is not too much else to say about the nominations, other than the fact that Nicole Kidman ("Margot at the Wedding"), Laura Linney ("The Savages") and Christian Bale ("Rescue Dawn") were all left off the list while other players in their films made the list. I highly disagree with the inclusion of Sienna Miller in the Best Actress category for "Interview". Reading quickly, I assumed that Irrfan Khan was nominated for "A Mighty Heart", which was recognized in other categories, but looking again, I saw that he was nodded for "The Namesake", which is regrettable since he was infintely better in the former film. Also great: "The Lookout" for Best First Feature, "Waitress" for Best Screenplay, and the hilarious inclusion of "Once" in the Best Foreign Film category (Ireland).

Nominations can be found here.

Intoxicating and Brilliant: I'm Not There

I'm Not There
Directed by Todd Haynes
Released November 21, 2007

Todd Haynes' bizarre look at the "many lives" of Bob Dylan is a fresh and infectious film. I know pretty much nothing about the history or music of Bob Dylan, and this weird and warped movie does little to enlighten me, but I sure enjoyed it, and I am certain that Dylan fans will love it as well and may even enjoy it more. It absolutely works better than this year's Beatles film "Across the Universe", this time inserting music as transitions between scenes or background music rather than a distracting, front-and-center barrage. I really disliked the Richard Gere segment, but the rest were fantastic. Each of the five actors who portray Dylan's alter agos (I am discounting Gere) get so perfectly lost in the roles. I personally enjoyed Marcus Carl Franklin as an 11-year-old guitar-playing prodigy the best, but there is no denying that Cate Blanchett's portrayal is truly impressive. The most wonderfully surprising thing about this film is that it actually tells a compelling story even though it is continually confusing and splinters Dylan's history into six different people in six different times. This one is playing at a select few theatres, but I highly recommend checking it out once it expands.

B+

Imagined Futures in Sci-fi: Fight Club

I am taking a course called "Utopia/Dystopia: Imagined Futures in Sci-fi" which focuses on science fiction films from the fifties to the present. I will be writing a few words about each of the films I watch in class.

Fight Club
Directed by David Fincher
Released October 15, 1999

Clearly I had seen this film before, but not in this context where we were looking at it as an examination of a near-future dystopia. The testerone-motivated "fight club" designed by a disillusioned insomniac mutates into a vicious and unstoppable cult with members deeply rooted in nearly every organization and capable of controlling major events. This concept is highly disturbing but is balanced by the extremely dark comedy throughout the film. Edward Norton and Brad Pitt play perfectly off each other, and Helena Bonham Carter does a great job as well. Director Fincher makes his films in a highly stylized manner, and this certainly shows it. From the pounding opening credits with furious music by the Dust Brothers, this is one intense thrill ride.

A-

Awards Season Begins Friday!

I am thrilled to announce that this Friday marks the nominations announcement of one of my favorite awards groups - The Golden Satellites. This wonderful wacky guild is slightly less popular than the Golden Globes (and has actually dropped the "Golden" from their name, making them now just the Satellites). It is fun because some of the nominees are so weird and out of nowhere (Joshua Jackson for Best Actor in "Aurora Borealis") but also serves as a decent predictor. Last year, eight of the eventual ten Golden Globe nominees for Best Picture showed up in the corresponding category at the Satellites. Contenders are often confirmed, but there are also false positives, like actors who were thought to have a chance and will still have no shot after their nomination here (such as Adam Beach for "Flags of our Fathers".

These nominations should pave the way for the following announcements, the nearest being the Golden Globes on December 13th. I am excited for the Satellite announcement, and tried for the first time (I never quite finished) to predict the nominees. It was fun for a while, but became tiring after I was just making up nominees to try to make them seem differentiated from other groups. Side note: all categories have six nominees, though they really can have anywhere from five to eight. Television nomination predictions can be found on the TV blog and are linked below. Without further ado, my random predictions. Nominees are in alphabetical order by film title and listed as the press release by the Satellite Awards lists them.

1. ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
A. KEIRA KNIGHTLEY, ATONEMENT
B. JULIE CHRISTIE, AWAY FROM HER
C. CATE BLANCHETT, ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
D. TANG WEI, LUST, CAUTION
E. ANGELINA JOLIE, A MIGHTY HEART
F. HALLE BERRY, THINGS WE LOST IN THE FIRE

2. ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
A. BRAD PITT, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
B. JAMES MCAVOY, ATONEMENT
C. VIGGO MORTENSEN, EASTERN PROMISES
D. JOHN CUSACK, GRACE IS GONE
E. CHRISTIAN BALE, RESCUE DAWN
F. DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, THERE WILL BE BLOOD

3. ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
A. AMY ADAMS, ENCHANTED
B. NIKKI BLONSKY, HAIRSPRAY
C. ELLEN PAGE, JUNO
D. LAURA LINNEY, THE SAVAGES
E. MARION COTILLARD, LA VIE EN ROSE
F. KERI RUSSELL, WAITRESS

4. ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
A. JASON SCHWARTZMANN, THE DARJEELING LIMITED
B. JOHN TRAVOLTA, HAIRSPRAY
C. RYAN GOSLING, LARS AND THE REAL GIRL
D. PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, THE SAVAGES
E. JOHNNY DEPP, SWEENEY TODD
F. DON CHEADLE, TALK TO ME

5. ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
A. MARISA TOMEI, BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD
B. MICHELLE PFEIFFER, HAIRSPRAY
C. CATE BLANCHETT, I’M NOT THERE
D. TILDA SWINTON, MICHAEL CLAYTON
E. LAURA LINNEY, THE NANNY DIARIES
F. KELLY MACDONALD, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

6. ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
A. GORDON PINSENT, AWAY FROM HER
B. ALBERT FINNEY, BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD
C. JAVIER BARDEM, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
D. MARK RUFFALO, RESERVATION ROAD
E. PHILIP BOSCO, THE SAVAGES
F. PAUL DANO, THERE WILL BE BLOOD

7. MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
A. ATONEMENT
B. AWAY FROM HER
C. BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD
D. EASTERN PROMISES
E. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
F. THERE WILL BE BLOOD

8. MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
A. HAIRSPRAY
B. JUNO
C. ONCE
D. THE SAVAGES
E. SWEENEY TODD
F. WAITRESS

9. MOTION PICTURE, FOREIGN LANGUAGE
A. THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
B. 4 MONTHS, 3 WEEKS, AND 2 DAYS
C. THE KITE RUNNER
D. LUST, CAUTION
E. THE ORPHANAGE
F. LA VIE EN ROSE

10. MOTION PICTURE, ANIMATED OR MIXED MEDIA
A. BEE MOVIE
B. BEOWULF
C. ENCHANTED
D. PERSEPOLIS
E. RATATOUILLE
F. THE SIMPSONS MOVIE

11. MOTION PICTURE, DOCUMENTARY
A. DARFUR NOW
B. LAKE OF FIRE
C. NO END IN SIGHT
D. RAPE OF EUROPA
E. SICKO
F. THE 11TH HOUR

12. DIRECTOR
A. SARAH POLLEY, AWAY FROM HER
B. SIDNEY LUMET, BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD
C. DAVID CRONENBERG, EASTERN PROMISES
D. JOEL COEN, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
E. PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON, THERE WILL BE BLOOD
F. ADRIENNE SHELLEY, WAITRESS

13. SCREENPLAY, ORIGINAL
A. BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD
B. EAGLE VS. SHARK
C. EASTERN PROMISES
D. ONCE
E. THE SAVAGES
F. WAITRESS

14. SCREENPLAY, ADAPTED
A. ATONEMENT
B. AWAY FROM HER
C. THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
D. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
E. INTO THE WILD
F. THERE WILL BE BLOOD

15. ORIGINAL SCORE
A. THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
B. ATONEMENT
C. THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
D. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
E. THE KITE RUNNER
F. THERE WILL BE BLOOD

16. ORIGINAL SONG
A. ENCHANTED – “That’s How You Know”
B. HAIRSPRAY – “Come So Far”
C. INTO THE WILD – “Guaranteed”
D. ONCE – “Falling Slowly”
E. ONCE – “Leave”
F. ONCE – “When Your Mind’s Made Up”

17. CINEMATOGRAPHY
A. THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
B. THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
C. LUST, CAUTION
D. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
E. SMOKIN’ ACES
F. THERE WILL BE BLOOD

18. VISUAL EFFECTS
A. BEOWULF
B. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
C. HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX
D. LIVE FREE OR DIE HARD
E. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 3
F. SPIDER-MAN 3
G. TRANSFORMERS

19. FILM EDITING
A. ATONEMENT
B. EASTERN PROMISES
C. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
D. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
E. SMOKIN’ ACES
F. THERE WILL BE BLOOD

20. SOUND (EDITING & MIXING)
A. BEOWULF
B. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
C. LIVE FREE OR DIE HARD
D. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
E. SMOKIN’ ACES
F. TRANSFORMERS

21. ART DIRECTION & PRODUCTION DESIGN
A. BEOWULF
B. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
C. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
D. HAIRSPRAY
E. HARRY POTTER & THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX
F. LUST, CAUTION

22. COSTUME DESIGN
A. BEOWULF
B. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
C. THE GOLDEN COMPASS
D. HAIRSPRAY
E. LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
F. LUST, CAUTION

BEST ENSEMBLE, MOTION PICTURE
JUNO

And continuing on to the TV predictions...

Thanksgiving Movie: The Shining

The Shining
Directed by Stanley Kubrick
Released May 23, 1980

I had not seen this classic before simply because I am not a fan of horror films. I will see one only if it is supposed to be a terrific film, and I had always planned to see this one, eventually. That eventual viewing was accelerated as a result of staying at the Mohonk Mountain House (Alan Alda was a guest there as well), which is the hotel “The Shining” is based on, over Thanksgiving. My brother insisted we watch the film while we were staying there.

I can safely say that “The Shining” is in no way a letdown. Kubrick builds tension delicately by using eerie music and long tracking shots down mysterious hallways which all look the same. Kubrick masterfully uses the enclosed setting to create a true feeling of no escape, and the film is completely captivating. I liked the fact that things do not jump out to frighten the audience, but instead the music cues the viewer to expect something scary. The combination of supernatural mystery and psychological terror makes for one thrilling film. I personally enjoyed Shelley Duvall’s antics, but in my follow-up research I noted that the Razzie Awards awarded her a nomination for this film. They also nominated Kubrick for Worst Director, so they clearly disagreed with the majority of diehard fans of this movie. One of the best elements of the film is obviously Jack Nicholson, marvelously creepy as the unforgettable Jack Torrence. All in all, this is an excellent film certainly worth seeing if you are not a fan of being scared.

A-