Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

Because of the busy nature of the next few weeks awards-wise, here are my current Oscar predictions, subject to minor revisions before nominations are announced on January 25th.

Last year’s nominees: The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The Messenger, A Serious Man, Up

This year’s locks: Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech

Very likely: None

Possible: The Fighter, Another Year, Black Swan, Blue Valentine

Unlikely: Please Give, Animal Kingdom, Somewhere, Made in Dagenham

The rundown: This category is considerably calmer than many of the others, and shouldn’t be too hard to predict. Assuming the three locks noted above, the most probable contenders to join them would be likely Best Picture nominees “The Fighter” and “Black Swan,” both of which were nominated for the WGA. Still, this category sometimes diverges from the top race, and so I think this may be where “Another Year” gets recognized (hopefully), just as Mike Leigh’s nod in this category for “Happy-Go-Lucky” was that film’s only mention that year. “Blue Valentine” could also make it in, even if its stars don’t. FYC but doubtful: “Animal Kingdom.” I’d love to say that surprise WGA nominee “Please Give” has a shot, but I just don’t think so.

Forecasted winner: I really hope it’s Inception, though “Memento” losing to “Gosford Park” makes me think it might be “The King’s Speech.”