Wednesday, April 21, 2021

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Cinematography

The competition: Judas and the Black Messiah (Sean Bobbitt), Mank (Erik Messerschmidt), News of the World (Dariusz Wolski), Nomadland (Joshua James Richards), The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Phedon Papamichael)

Previous winners: 1917, Blade Runner 2049, La La Land, The Revenant, Birdman, Gravity
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: This is the first nomination for everyone but Papamichael, who was previously here for “Nebraska” in 2013. Since the ASC has existed, its winner has only gone on to win the Oscar fifteen out of thirty-four times, and six times in the past decade. “The Trial of the Chicago 7” was the only film not nominated by BAFTA, where “Nomadland” won, while “Judas and the Black Messiah” wasn’t in contention at the ASC Awards, where “Mank” unexpectedly triumphed. A Best Picture nominee has won this award every year over the past decade except for in 2017.
Who should win: I’d vote for “Nomadland” or “News of the World.”
Who will win: While it’s tempting to pick “Mank” given its ASC win and nominations-leader status, I think Nomadland will ultimately prevail here.

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