More Movies Coming Soon!

I've been terribly busy in the past few weeks, but I absolutely plan to catch up in a major way on all the movies I've missed in that time. I'll also be seeing a lot of movies this summer. In the meantime, I'll direct you to my review which I wrote a while ago for this weekend's release of Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay. Additionally, I'm keeping up with a number of television shows on my TV blog over at TV with Abe. Check that out for a while and I'll be back as soon as I can with movie reviews.

Vulgar and Hilarious: Forgetting Sarah Marshall

Judd Apatow and company have been churning out film after film for a little over a year now, and for every classic “Knocked Up” or hilarious “Superbad”, there’s an equally devastating “Walk Hard.” Fortunately, “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” falls safely into the first category, and it’s even an improvement upon the earlier Apatow fare.

Jason Segel stars as Peter, a likeable composer for a crappy CSI-style crime series. His girlfriend, the immensely popular star of the show, dumps him unexpectedly and the break-up is very hard on Peter. His friend recommends a nice vacation, and Peter decides to head to Hawaii, only to encounter his former girlfriend, who has brought along her new boyfriend.

The best thing “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” has going for it is its spirit of camaraderie. Segel, usually relegated to supporting comic relief in “Knocked Up” and the CBS television show “How I Met Your Mother,” takes center stage here as the straight man. Segel, who also penned the script, displays qualities very much similar to Tina Fey, whose ability to make her roles funny when all the people around her all so outrageous and showy makes NBC’s “30 Rock” a pleasure to watch. Segel is funny to be sure, but it’s his effortless, kind charm that makes him a fantastic hero for this story.

There are plenty of Apatow regulars to be found in “Forgetting Sarah Marshall,” and every one of them is right on key for hilarity. Bill Hader provides great support as Peter’s best friend, but it’s the small roles with players like Jonah Hill and Paul Rudd that are truly winning. Sadly, neither Michael Cera nor Seth Rogen makes an appearance in the film, yet it’s a relief that the crew seems to have found a stellar new set of members whose debut appearances are nothing short of wonderful.

Kristen Bell, who has already achieved immortal cult fame as the lead on “Veronica Mars” and as a recurring guest star on “Heroes” last year, plays Peter’s ex-girlfriend, Sarah Marshall, with just the right mix of good and bad qualities. Her choice of an incomprehensible rock star over Peter makes her seem out of her mind, but it’s not hard to figure out why Peter would want her back. Relative film newcomer Russell Brand is perhaps the funniest performer in the whole film, as Sarah’s outlandish new beau. Mila Kunis, best known for her whiny, ditzy portrayal of Jackie on “That ’70s Show,” makes a stunning transition into respectable film acting as a hotel clerk who feels sympathy for Peter and tries to make his stay all the more enjoyable.

The sunny Hawaiian setting in the film just makes everything seem all the more pleasant and radiant. The film would still be funny were it set in a less tropical location, but the locale gives off an extremely happy feeling which remains throughout the movie. After all is said and done, this is still a lewd, highly uncensored comedy, but it combines the hilarity of “Superbad” with the effective dramedy of “Knocked Up.” The most commendable improvement over those earlier Apatow offerings is that this one isn’t too long – it ends at just the right point, and the last act is wildly and irreverently funny. If this movie is representative of the future of the Apatow troop, there are sure to be a whole lot of terrific movies coming up.

B+

Lofty and High-Minded: Smart People

Smart People
Directed by Noam Murro
Released April 11, 2008

"Smart People" is a film about the kind of knowledge that is only useful for taking the SATs or for having intelligent, sophisticated conversations. What the characters know does little to help them manage their daily lives or interactions with other people, a kind of street smarts that the film itself lacks.

Dennis Quaid, his face hidden by a dark beard, stars as disgruntled Carnegie Mellon professor Lawrence Wetherhold who, as one student says, teaches little and then is disappointed when his students turn in substandard work. Lawrence's son James shuns the family and sees it as depressing, while his daughter Vanessa secludes herself from the rest of the world to bolster her grades and participate in Young Republican causes. Lawrence's adopted brother is a lazy, unemployed and unmotivated moocher.

None of the characters are remotely likable. Last year's "Margot at the Wedding" was a failure mainly because it was impossible to sympathize with any of the characters, especially Nicole Kidman in the title role. "Smart People" has far less subtext and thought behind it than "Margot," which it expects to get away with by being a comedy. The film has laughs, but they are sparse and hardly fulfilling.

This film is full of good actors whose respectable talents are not represented here and whose skills cannot make their characters any less detestable. Quaid, who may well be past his prime, evokes only slightly more emotion than in the recent film "Vantage Point" and fails to infuse much personality into the stern professor. Sarah Jessica Parker, whose singular appeal has worked in films like "Miami Rhapsody" and the popular "Sex and the City" series, is whiny and bland as a former student of Lawrence's who harbors inexplicable feelings for him. Thomas Haden Church, who returned to the spotlight in 2004 with a remarkable performance in "Sideways," contributes nothing as Lawrence's brother other than a hilariously terrible mustache.

And then there is Ellen Page, whose roles in "Hard Candy" and "Juno" have earned her universal praise. She tries to make daughter Vanessa into a viable character, but the material she is given to work with is just not strong enough, and it is as if she is simply playing a less interesting version of Juno.

"Smart People" flaunts its knowledge and vocabulary, but its predictable and repetitive script is aimless. Instead of achieving some sort of self-realization, the movie falls flat. Juno, of all people, would not be satisfied with such cliché.

D-

Oh, I Do Feel Really Bad

I have been swamped with work and craziness lately and have barely had a moment for my blogs. I haven't even seen a movie in about a month. Regardless, I do have a review of "Smart People" which I'll be posting on Friday in conjunction with it running in the Washington Square News, and the following week I'll have one for "Forgetting Sarah Marshall". I definitely plan to come back in major force later this spring and certainly this summer.

Nothing Too Memorable: Definitely, Maybe

Definitely, Maybe
Directed by Adam Brooks
Released March 14, 2008

This year's token Valentine's Day romantic comedy pales as far as actual quality goes in comparison to last year's counterpart, "Music & Lyrics", but I suppose the sappy entertainment and romance factor is pretty much on par. Put quite simply, "Definitely, Maybe" is not my kind of movie, in that there is nothing too clever or artistic about it to merit it as a moviegoing experience. I fully recognize that this movie is not meant to be an awe-inspiring, medium-changing extravaganza, but looking at other romantic comedies, it seems to be lacking. One review called Ryan Reynolds "nauseating", and while I often like him ("Smokin' Aces") I have to agree here. As a lead, he oozes annoying traits throughout the entire film. Abigail Breslin plays a girl WAY too mature for her age, and her perkiness and intelligence become tiresome and unbelievable. The three leading ladies are actually cast pretty well - Isla Fisher of "Wedding Crashers" gives the most commendable performance, while Elizabeth Banks and Rachel Weisz have done better in the past but still turn in decent enough efforts. The film's plot - Breslin interrogates her father to find out who her real mother is - is nothing too new or intriguing, and progresses too slowly to make itself worthwhile. See it on a date, maybe, but as a movie itself, I wouldn't say that it's worth much.

C

Flipping through the Channels: Cruel Intentions

Cruel Intentions
Directed by Roger Kumble
Released March 5, 1999

Ah, what a fantastically ridiculous film. I first watched this movie at least five or six years ago when I could not fully appreciate its camp nature and its true awfulness that is so clearly apparent in my most recent viewing on HBO. Ryan Phillippe and Sarah Michelle Gellar try so hard to be aloof and above everything with all their fancy opinions and never-ending wealth. Truth be told, both Phillippe and Gellar are not actually good actors (sorry, Buffy fans! Don’t kill me!), and watching them try to out do each other is both painful and hilarious at the same time. Their desire to sexualize (a word?) everything is a lot to take, but it is consistently entertaining to watch them as they try to sleep with everyone. Substance-wise, this movie has a lot less in it than I initially remembered. I thought that I remembered the infamous horse scene from this movie, but I think that I missed it while I getting up to get some cake. Even without seeing that, I can still find Selma Blair’s performance absolutely fascinating, and appreciate the small roles given to both Swoosie Kurtz and Christine Baranski. And then there’s the music. “Every You, Every Me”, “Colorblind”, and especially “Bittersweet Symphony” are used so perfectly in this movie, not to mention the stellar score. Overall, this is one amazingly entertaining but completely ridiculous film that makes me laugh and cringe at all times throughout.

Entertainment value: A
Quality grade: C-

Best Films of 2007: #5-1

#5: THE BUBBLE

“Walk on Water” director Eytan Fox takes an inside look at the politically active youth in Tel Aviv in this fascinatingly fresh and wonderfully nuanced film. The young cast is uniformly excellent.

#4: AFTER THE WEDDING

This Danish effort from director Susanne Bier uses amazingly subtle cinematography to convey the deepest and gravest of messages. Mads Mikkelsen and the entire cast give remarkable performances in this stunning and powerful film.

#3: AVENUE MONTAIGNE

Perky, bright-eyed Cécile de France interacts with a number of colorful characters in this amusing and often funny drama that still has a serious but warm heart. The film is supplemented by wonderful music and a dazzling cast.

#2: THE LIVES OF OTHERS

The late Ulrich Muhe commands the screen as an interrogator in Germany in the 1980s. The story is marvelous, and every aspect of the film, especially its cinematography and music, make for a terrific experience.

#1: THE DARJEELING LIMITED

Wes Anderson’s latest film is simple yet wonderfully adventurous, and the music and colors of the film set it apart from the rest of the pack this year. The script is excellent, but it the casting of is Adrien Brody, Owen Wilson, and Jason Schwartzman as wacky brothers that really makes the film.

Best Films of 2007: #10-6

#10: RATATOUILLE

This winning animated comedy tells the story of a young rat whose culinary inclinations inspire him to get into the restaurant business. Terrific voices and a thoroughly amusing script make this premise work incredibly well.

#9: FIRST SNOW

About 15 people saw this fantastic thriller about a traveling salesman marked for death after a visit to a fortune teller. The suspense is gripping and the film is appropriately chilling, with excellent performances by Guy Pearce and J.K. Simmons.

#8: STARTER FOR 10

James McAvoy proves a suitable lead for this wonderfully amusing comedy. The cast is fresh and top-notch, and the script is terrific. The true definition of a dramatic comedy, with a heavy British influence.

#7: THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY

Director Julian Schnabel creates a dazzling and affecting portrait of a magazine editor paralyzed by a stroke who only retains functionality in one eye. The film is tough to get through but amazingly photographed and incredibly powerful.

#6: EAGLE VS. SHARK

Jemaine Clement of “Flight of the Conchords” stars as a supremely uncool loser who brings his would-be girlfriend along on a trip back home to get revenge on a bully. The script is flat-out hilarious, and the players work together perfectly.

Best Films of 2007: #15-11

#15: KNOCKED UP

Judd Apatow and crew take a potentially overdone concept and make a charming, hilarious film out of it. Seth Rogen and Katherine Heigl make a terrific unlikely couple and are supported excellently by Paul Rudd, Leslie Mann, and a whole host of other Apatow regulars.

#14: GONE BABY GONE

Casey Affleck stars as a private investigator trying to help a woman find her missing daughter. Affleck is a wonderful new talent while Ed Harris and Morgan Freeman show no signs of losing any of their skill. The film is incredibly suspenseful and powerful.

#13: EASTERN PROMISES

David Cronenberg directs a violent, fascinating portrait of the Russian mob in England. Viggo Mortensen gives a career-best performance as a silent, shadowy figure who develops a bond with an intrepid midwife played by Naomi Watts. Lots of blood – not for the faint of heart.

#12: THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD

Brad Pitt and Casey Affleck are perfectly paired as outlaw Jesse James and wannabe Robert Ford in this period western film. The cinematography and music make for an all-around mesmerizing experience.

#11: JUNO

A quirky teenager gets pregnant and decides to go through with the birth in this sharp, smart comedy with an undeniably brilliant script. Ellen Page is great as the title character, and a wonderful cast helps make a fantastic comedy.

Best Films of 2007: #20-16

#20: WAITRESS

The late Adrienne Shelly directs this amusing and entertaining dramedy about a dissatisfied piemaker longing for happiness in her life. Keri Russell leads an all-around wonderful cast, including Shelly herself.

#19: I’M NOT THERE

Six portraits of different periods in Bob Dylan’s life make for one fascinating film. With the exception of Richard Gere’s outlaw Dylan, the cast is amazing, especially Marcus Carl Franklin and Cate Blanchett.

#18: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

The Coen Brothers’ latest film is a dark and violent tale with one hell of a bad guy in Javier Bardem. The suspense is gripping and the cast does a fine job.

#17: ATONEMENT

Two beautiful young people find that the overactive imagination of one girl prohibits them from spending their lives together in love. A talented cast is supplanted by gorgeous scenery and fantastic music.

#16: SUPERBAD

Young stars Jonah Hill and Michael Cera try to live it up in high school. The dialogue is lewd and ceaselessly hilarious. Christopher Mintz-Plasse makes his unforgettable debut as the superbly uncool McLovin.

Best Films of 2007: #25-21

#25: SNOW CAKE

This film, delayed from a late December 2006 release, opened at very few theatres in April but packed a major emotional punch. Alan Rickman, Sigourney Weaver, and Carrie-Anne Moss all give terrific performances as people dealing with a young woman’s death in a wintry town.

#24: A MIGHTY HEART

This affecting drama tells the story of journalist Mariane Pearl, whose husband was captured by terrorists in Pakistan. Angelina Jolie turns in an amazing performance in this gripping, taut, tough film that bears a lot of similarities to 2006's “United 93”.

#23: ONCE

This film is so simple and yet so effective. Two likeable young musicians meet and make music. There is little else to it, but the wonderful (Oscar-winning!) music makes the film. The story plays only a small part in the movie, which makes it all the more awe-inspiring.

#22: INTO THE WILD

A young man, fresh out of college, decides he wants to abandon civilization and live off on his own and experience nature. Sean Penn goes behind the camera to direct this inspiring drama with terrific cinematography and a stellar cast, led by the talented Emile Hirsch. The film also boasts a terrific soundtrack by Eddie Vedder.

#21: BEE MOVIE

Critics berated this animated tale, which stares Jerry Seinfeld as a bright-eyed young bee eager to get out and see the world. It is the latest in a series of animated movies that combine slapstick, kid-friendly jokes with subtler, funny adult humor. Seinfeld is perfect for the lead role.

Soapy But What's The Point: Married Life

Married Life
Directed by Ira Sachs
Released March 7, 2008

Hearing that Chris Cooper is starring in a movie really ups my excitement level, and then hearing that Pierce Brosnan is co-starring brings it back down again. Luckily, Cooper has more screen time and does his very best to fit into the part of a two-timing but well-intentioned 1940s husband. His immersion into the role seems almost effortless, but that is mostly a testament to his acting skill. Brosnan smirks and saunters his way througgh the film as the ethically undecided ladies man/best friend to Cooper's character. The time is well-captured with the set pieces, but the pace of the film and its relative lack of any satisfying or surprising resolution is a letdown. There are absolutely some fantastically memorable scenes, most notably the superb introduction of Rachel McAdams' character. McAdams will someday be a great actress, but she needs better roles than this to get there. Patricia Clarkson gives a decent performance, but like Cooper, it feels like she is really not trying too hard. The music here is fantastic and will stick with me for a while. The film, on the other hand, will not.

C+

TV Blog updated

I slipped so far behind on both my blogs in the past two weeks or so, but I have caught up completely on TV with Abe, so please check that out in the meantime. More to come here ASAP.

An Animated Documentary: Chicago 10

Chicago 10
Directed by Brett Morgen
Released February 29, 2008

1968 is quite the year in terms of historical significance. Both Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. were assassinated and “Tricky Dick” Nixon was elected President of the United States. Director Brett Morgen’s film brings to light another major scandal of 1968: the arrest and trial of eight prominent anti-war ringleaders who organized a massive protest of the 1968 Democratic National Convention.

The Chicago Ten include the eight men arrested and the two defense lawyers who advocated for their rights. The Chicago Eight, as the defendants were more commonly known, may be familiar because it was recently announced that Sacha Baron Cohen of Borat fame would be portraying Abbie Hoffman, one of the Eight, in an upcoming Steven Spielberg-Aaron Sorkin project on the same subject. That casting choice seems only appropriate after seeing archive footage of Hoffman and his fellow Yippies describing how they choose to respond to the government in a blatantly immature manner. Even their name – Yippies – is jokingly attributed to a brainstorming session where they tried to find words that rhymed with “hippies.”

Yet this story of the Chicago Eight is no laughing matter. While the Yippies prance about and make jokes, the insincerity of their trial is horrifying and immensely disturbing. The second half of the film abandons humor altogether and turns to stark seriousness. Morgen uses animation to recreate the trial, finding his inspiration for the idea from Yippie Jerry Rubin’s assertion that the trials were “cartoonish.” The concept, substituting animated dramatizations for any present-day interviews, is a novel one, but it runs the risk of caricaturing the trial, and especially the prosecution, far too wildly. The late Roy Scheider in particular seems to be overplaying Judge Julius Hoffman, but Morgen claims that Scheider was kind in his portrayal.

The film is decidedly on the side of the Yippies, but that does not mean its allegiance is not justified. While their childish methods may offend some, the sickening response to Black Panther leader Bobby Seale’s attempts to defend himself in court and videos of police officers brutally beating protesters certainly arouse sympathy, if not activism. This film recalls the fantastic 2006 documentary The U.S. vs. John Lennon, where leaving the film creates a sense of wanting to be a part of such a communal, significant protest. Morgen commented after the screening on his sense that activism today is nothing like what it used to be and that the current war situation is disturbingly similar to that with Vietnam in 1968.

What is reassuring is that Morgen’s experiment pays off. The animated segments work in concert with the archive footage of Hoffman, Rubin, and the other Yippies calling their supporters to action or responding to charges. A sense of just how much of a joke the trial was is driven home, and then some. A possible roadblock for the film would be unfavorable comparisons to the likes of Michael Moore, where the truth is embellished or even fictionalized for the sake of proving a point. To his credit, Morgen does an impressive job of staying focused, and while the lack of any actionable present-day interviews may be somewhat lamentable, the overall effect of the film is staggering and powerful. Morgen and his film cannot speak as loudly as the characters themselves can – but their actions, as captured by Morgen’s film, certainly speak loudly enough.

A Mess of a Thriller: Vantage Point

Vantage Point
Directed by Pete Travis
Released February 22, 2008

The trailers made it look cool. In theory presidental assassinations are the best plots for films. What viewers might not know what to expect is that a very lacking setup is the starting point for continuous replays of the same scenario from a different point of view. Seeing pretty much the same thing over and over does not make it good, and that replay style accounts for well over an hour of the film's hour and a half runtime. That is not the film's main problem, but it certainly does it no help. The plot is jumbled and the twists make little to no sense. None of the motivations behind the beliefs and betrayals of each of the characters is ever explained - some of them just allude to the fact that "Americans are stupid and ignorant" and will "pay the price". None of the cast members stand out, and Dennis Quaid, Forest Whitaker, Sigourney Weaver, and Matthew Fox all need to find better venues for their considerable talents. This film just gets more and more annoying until it reaches its unsatisfying and rather bland conclusion.

F

If you want to see something good about presidential assassination attempts, check out the following:

JFK
This Oliver Stone conspiracy thriller examines the assassination of JFK and all the mystery surrounding it to the most exact detail. It may be fiction, but it sure is fascinating. Kevin Costner turns in one of his best performances (considerably better than the majority of his work) and this four-hour film (at least the director's cut) actually passes fairly quickly.

In the Line of Fire
Wolfgang Petersen guides this tense and thrilling movie about a clever assassin who plays mind games with a secret service agent played with grim determination by Clint Eastwood. John Malkovich is amazing as the brilliant but definitely evil John Booth, as the assassin calls himself. This is purely and simply what a thriller should be - and you won't be let down.

24: Season One
During the first eight or so hours of the show's groundbreaking first season, there is nothing more exciting or suspenseful than the threat against presidential candidate Senator David Palmer. Add in all the Jack Bauer/Counter Terrorist Unit stuff and that's great too, but around 6 a.m. this is one assassination attempt you will not be able to look away from.

A Winning Comedy: Charlie Bartlett

Charlie Bartlett
Directed by Jon Poll
Released February 22, 2008

This long-delayed film, which had trailers debuting in theatres last summer, manages to improve on its already-terrific trailer. Anton Yelchin stars as misfit high school student Charlie Bartlett who longs for universal acclaim from his peers, and finds it after he starts dealing prescription drugs with the resident mohawk-sprouting bully. A refreshing trait about Charlie is that he is not needy, and does not act if as he cares what happens to him. He gets his head dunked in a toilet, gets suspended from school, and more - without ever looking sad or defeated. It is his immutable positive attitude that carries the film. Yelchin is a great actor, which I knew already from the pilot episode of "Huff", and I look forward to seeing what he does next. Kat Dennings, who plays his love interest in the film, may need to work on not being typecast as the slightly goth, abnormal-but-still-normal best girl friend character. Robert Downey Jr. and Hope Davis are perfectly cast in their limited but entertaining roles. The biggest and best surprise is "One Tree Hill" alum/singer Tyler Hilton, who is both hilarious and sympathetic as the aforementioned punk bully. The film might be forgettable, but it is a great ride throughout its runtime.

B+

A Wonderful Night

All in all, this was really a great time. My first real Oscar soiree was complemented by an enjoyable ceremony and my first-ever entry into a real pool. Sad to say, I lost by one category in both the overall and the top six. I correctly predicted 12/24 (50%) and four out of the top six (or, a better statistic - six out of the top eight, down one from last year's seven). My statistics are pretty much on par with last year, since I did not predict the short films then (though my picks for the animated and live action short categories, from which I have seen all the films, were shafted in favor of the less impressive though not-quite-bad choices "The Mozart of Pickpockets" and the lengthy "Peter and the Wolf"). My proudest moment is calling Marion Cotillard, but I am saddened that my prediction for "Juno" upsetting did not occur. The biggest suprises of the night:

Tilda Swinton winning. I thought it might happen, but did not have the guts. It really does feel like just something to give "Michael Clayton" a trophy. Regardless, at least it was not Ruby Dee. Blanchett and Ryan both got honored at different guilds this year, and Blanchett is sure to be back, while Ryan and Ronan may have some trouble returning to the field.

"The Golden Compass" triumphs over "Transformers" in the Best Visual Effects category. I guess people really loved those blimps. I mean, I enjoyed the effects most about "Transformers" but was underwhelmed by "The Golden Compass", but I suppose the effects were the best. Also surprising that the final "Bourne" installment swept up all three trophies it was nominated for, Best Film Editing, Sound, and Sound Editing. That feels like a "The Return of the King"-like sweep, which I hate with a passion. Neither of the previous, far more deserving Bourne films were even nominated for anything, and this disappointing rip-off of the second one did not merit the acclaim it got, nor the trophies.

"Taxi to the Dark Side" beating out "Sicko". The former was quite good, but I presumed that viewers would find it so immensely disturbing that they would be sickened and choose to go with something more slightly uplighting but still as poignant. I do think "Sicko" was a slightly better movie, but I suppose it is good that people will now go out and see it. A fair warning - this is the most disturbing movie I have ever seen. Do not go into this expecting anything positive - it is extremely difficult to watch and sticks with you quite a bit. It is a great film, however.

Overall:
The show was a lot of fun, with some good montages and some great fake-montages. Jon Stewart did an excellent job without hogging the spotlight. Jonah Hill and Seth Rogen were a lot of fun as presenters, and the show did not feel too long despite running until about 11:45. The wins were actually quite spread out, with "No Country" taking home four awards (I originally wrote five, but I'm not sure how I counted), "The Bourne Ultimatum" taking home three, "There Will Be Blood" and "La Vie en Rose" with two apiece, and the rest relegated to one trophy each. No movie with more than two nominations (save for "Transformers" and "Enchanted") was snubbed, so this year was good with spreading the wealth. I myself am quite excited for next year, and agree wholeheartedly with Dave Karger's picks on the likely candidates for next year's Best Picture list. Then again, no one would have thought that "Juno" would be nominated a year ago, and I remember telling myself that there was no way that a movie called "There Will Be Blood" could possibly be nominated for Best Picture.

I will now of course be shifting my attention fully to the Emmy Awards, which are not as far away as you might think (nominees are announced in mid-July). Check out TV with Abe, my corresponding TV blog, for all the latest on that in the coming months. In the meantime, I will be posting my top 25 films of the year in the next week or so. I am quite behind on my reviews - I have thoughts to offer on "Charlie Bartlett", "Vantage Point", and "Chicago 10", so stick around for that.

Good night.

Final Oscar Winner Predictions

These are my final Oscar Winner Predictions. This is my fifth year making official predictions before the telecast, and in that time, I have only missed the Best Picture winner once, when in 2004 I predicted an upset for "Sideways" over the only slightly surprising "Million Dollar Baby" ("The Aviator" had been favored by many to win). I am most pulling for some really exciting surprises. The 2003 telecast was incredibly boring, and I got all but 4 categories right only because I dared to assume that "The Return of the King" would not win all 11 of its nominations, and that "The Triplets of Belleville" would shock by upsetting "Finding Nemo". It is not that I want to do poorly with my predictions, but rather I would like there to be an exciting telecast.

In terms of last-minute jitters, the Independent Spirit Awards yesterday do little to inform tonight's potential winners. I accidentally missed the telecast, assuming it was at night rather than at 5pm ET, but tuned in just in time to see Ellen Page and "Juno" take home the final awards of the evening, and host Rainn Wilson declare "Philip Seymour Hoffman, prepare to die!" before charging into the audience to tackle one Philip Seymour Hoffman. Regardless, only one Oscar-nominated person/film was present in each category (save for Best Director, where "Juno" helmer Jason Reitman was also nominated) - and they all won. "Juno" for Best Picture, First Screenplay, and Actress; Cate Blanchett for Best Supporting Actress for "I'm Not There", Julian Schnabel for Best Director, and "The Savages" triumphed in Best Screenplay over the adapted (therefore nominated in a different Oscar category) "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly". I did some quick research, and in the twenty-plus-year history of the Independent Spirit Awards, no film that has won Best Picture has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar except for in the second year with "Platoon". In fact, every year, only one eventual Oscar Best Picture nominee has been nominated in any given year and they have all won the award (in 2005, "Brokeback Mountain" beat "Capote" and "Good Night, and Good Luck" but all three lost to the non-ISA-recognized "Crash" at the Oscars). So is this, as some say, the kiss of death? Does this mean that "Juno", Schnabel, Page, and Blanchett have already taken home their trophies and will not win tonight? I am still predicting "Juno" for Best Picture and Blanchett for Best Supporting Actress.

I would be honestly surprised if Schnabel won Best Director mostly because no director has won that award without a corresponding Best Picture nomination since I don't even know when (definitely well before the '70s, if it ever happened). I would sort of love for "Atonement" to win Best Picture because the reverse, where the Best Picture winner is not even nominated for Best Director, is just as rare (though it did happen in 1989 with "Driving Miss Daisy"). All I know is that I am excited for tonight's telecast and have a slight inkling that Tilda Swinton might win Best Supporting Actress, but I will stick with my original prediction. That category can go any way. I am thrilled to see "Falling Slowly" from "Once" performed, as well as all the clips they show every year. I am in the mood for some exciting winners tonight, and I think it should be a great show.

My final predictions:

BEST PICTURE: Juno

BEST DIRECTOR: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men

BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

BEST ACTRESS: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Diablo Cody, Juno

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men

CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

FILM EDITING: No Country for Old Men

ART DIRECTION: Atonement

COSTUME DESIGN: Atonement

ORIGINAL SCORE: Atonement

ORIGINAL SONG: “Falling Slowly” from Once

SOUND: No Country for Old Men

SOUND EDITING: There Will Be Blood

MAKEUP: La Vie en Rose

VISUAL EFFECTS: Transformers

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The Counterfeiters

ANIMATED FEATURE: Ratatouille

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Sicko

DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Freeheld

ANIMATED SHORT: I Met the Walrus

LIVE-ACTION SHORT: Tanghi Argentini

Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

The nominees:
ATONEMENT
JUNO
MICHAEL CLAYTON
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
THERE WILL BE BLOOD

My ballot: 0/5
Who should win: “Juno”, “Atonement”, or “No Country for Old Men”
Who will win: Some quick statistics: no film has won Best Picture in recent years without a Best Director nomination except for “Driving Miss Daisy” in 1989. No film has won Best Picture in recent years without a Best Film Editing nomination since “Ordinary People” in 1980. Those could be two huge handicappers for Atonement and Juno, respectively. Jason Reitman’s directing nomination helps the chances of the latter quite a bit. The expected winner is No Country for Old Men, while There Will Be Blood could mine some last-minute support which rarely works but sort of did for “Million Dollar Baby” (though it failed for “Letters from Iwo Jima”). I am betting that all signs indicate to “No Country” by this point in the telecast but then Juno takes a surprise win.

Oscar Predictions: Best Director

The nominees:
JULIAN SCHNABEL, THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
JASON REITMAN, JUNO
TONY GILROY, MICHAEL CLAYTON
THE COEN BROTHERS, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON, THERE WILL BE BLOOD

My ballot: 1/5, Schnabel
Who should win: Schnabel or the Coen Brothers
Who will win: The pure and simple fact is that the Coen Brothers have never won an Oscar. If they had, this would be completely up for grabs. I do think it will be them taking home this award. The other statistic is that the other four are all first-time nominees, and Schnabel and Anderson may have a good shot at upsetting.