Saturday, February 8, 2020

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best International Feature

The competition: Corpus Christi (Poland), Honeyland (North Macedonia), Les Miserables (France), Pain and Glory (Spain), Parasite (South Korea)

Previous winners: Roma (Mexico), A Fantastic Woman (Chile), The Salesman (Iran), Son of Saul (Hungary), Ida (Poland), The Great Beauty (Italy), Amour (Austria), A Separation (Iran)
My winner: Parasite
The facts: This is the second consecutive year that a nominee here also contends for Best Picture, with “Parasite” up for six total awards, including Best Director. The only returning nominee here is Pedro Almodovar, who won this category in 1999 for “All About My Mother,” was nominated in 1988 for “Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown,” and won a screenplay prize along with a directing nomination in 2002 for “Talk to Her.” “Honeyland” is also nominated for Best Documentary this year. This is the second consecutive nomination for Poland, which won once out of eleven nominations, for “Ida” in 2014. This is the fortieth nomination for France, which has won twelve times, most recently in 1992 for “Indochine.” This is the twentieth nomination for Spain, which won four times, most recently in 2004 for “The Sea Inside.” North Macedonia was nominated once before, on its first try in 1994 for “Before the Rain.” This is the first nomination for South Korea. “Parasite” has won most foreign film prizes handed out by any organization, and also became the first non-English film to win the SAG Award for its ensemble.

Who should win: In another year, I’d be championing the superb “Corpus Christi” to win, and I also was very impressed by both “Les Miserables” and “Pain and Glory.” But nothing compares to the best film of the year, “Parasite.”
Who will win: It would be the biggest shock of the century if anything but Parasite won here.

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