Your Guide to the Oscars

I achieved a feat this year I’ve never pulled off before - I saw every movie nominated in every category. It’s exciting to be able to judge the nominees with a full understanding of every category, and I’d hope that it will help my predictions score, though that’s hardly a guarantee.

Smart money would say that “The Revenant” is primed to make a sweep thanks to its strong awards season performance. I’m predicting it to take home three trophies: Best Actor, Best Cinematography, and Best Sound Editing, hardly a resounding haul. I’m predicting that “Mad Max: Fury Road” will take home four awards: Best Film Editing, Best Sound, Best Art Direction, and - most crucially - Best Director. That leaves my predicted Best Picture winner, “Spotlight,” with just one other award, Best Original Screenplay, which may well be the lowest take for a Best Picture winner ever. I’m still sticking with it. This is the first time since I’ve been following the Oscar race that we legitimately have three films vying for Best Picture and no locked frontrunner. Though I predicted “Sideways” and “Juno” to eclipse competing nominees “The Aviator” and “Million Dollar Baby” in 2004 and “No Country for Old Men” and “There Will Be Blood” in 2007, I was wrong and there were only two films really in the race. I’m betting that “The Big Short” ends up with nothing more than its locked Best Adapted Screenplay win, but it’s also the film that’s won the least, taking home only the PGA, an award that has gone to a film that didn’t win the Best Picture Oscar seven times in its twenty-nine-year history. What’s cool is that three if not four films could feasibly win at the end of the night; it’s just a shame that “Spotlight” is easily the best of them.

There are a few wins that will definitely happen - DiCaprio, Larson, “Inside Out,” “Son of Saul,” “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” for Best Visual Effects - and much of the rest is not set in stone. I hope that “The Revenant” doesn’t win everything, and the same for “Mad Max: Fury Road.” It would be great to see the wealth spread a little bit. I’m also venturing in a different direction on Best Documentary, predicting “Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom” over heavy favorite “Amy” since I watched all five nominees within a two-week time period and that’s the one that I think will hit voters most. We’ll see!

What would make me happiest is if “Spotlight” won Best Director and Best Film Editing, but I’ll settle for Best Picture. I’m not going to bother rooting for other performances I’d love to see rewarded, like Michael Fassbender or Matt Damon, but I think I’ll be pretty content with most of the other winners. Below, click on category headings to read detailed predictions for each race, and film names for full reviews of each contender. My predicted winner is in bold. Comment if you agree or disagree! Enjoy the show!

Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Best Director
Adam McKay (The Big Short)
George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant)
Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
Brie Larson (Room)
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room

Best Cinematography
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Best Art Direction
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Best Costume Design
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Best Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Original Score
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Original Song
“Earned It” (Fifty Shades of Grey)
“’Til It Happens To You” (The Hunting Ground)
“Manta Ray” (Racing Extinction)
“Writings on the Wall” (Spectre)
“Simple Song #3” (Youth)

Best Sound
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The 100-Year-Old-Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Best Visual Effects
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

Best Documentary Short Film
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom

Best Animated Short Film
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

Best Live Action Short Film
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay
Shok
Stutterer

Best Documentary
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Best Foreign Language Film
Embrace of the Serpent
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War

Predicted totals:
Mad Max: Fury Road - 4
The Revenant - 3
The Danish Girl - 2
Spotlight - 2
The Big Short - 1
Creed - 1
The Hateful Eight - 1
The Hunting Ground - 1
The 100-Year-Old-Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared - 1
Room - 1
Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 1

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Picture

The competition: The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight

Previous winners: Birdman, 12 Years a Slave, Argo, The Artist, The King’s Speech, The Hurt Locker, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men
My winner: TBA
The facts: “The Revenant” has a whopping twelve nominations, “Mad Max: Fury Road” has ten, “The Martian” has seven, “Bridge of Spies” and “Spotlight” have six, “The Big Short” has five, “Room” has four, and “Brooklyn” has three. “The Big Short,” “Mad Max: Fury Road,” “The Revenant,” “Room,” and “Spotlight” are all nominated for Best Director, and only “Mad Max: Fury Road” and “The Revenant” don’t have corresponding screenplay nominations. This year’s wins have not been united at all. “The Revenant” won the Golden Globe, DGA, and BAFTA. “The Big Short” won the PGA, “Spotlight” won SAG and the Critics Choice, and both films took home WGA Awards. “Mad Max: Fury Road” is only the second sequel to be nominated after the original wasn’t (“Toy Story 3” was the first), and, if it wins, it will become the third sequel to take home this award.

Who should win: I’m firmly behind “Spotlight” - it’s inarguably the best of this bunch. “Room” comes in second, followed by “The Martian.” I did like “The Revenant,” but I don’t think it’s anywhere near as good as “Spotlight.” It just feels overrated to me, and the same goes for “The Big Short,” which is also a good movie. I enjoyed “Brooklyn” back when I saw it at Sundance a year ago, but it’s not the best on this list. “Bridge of Spies” wasn’t terribly satisfying, and I can’t comprehend the hype behind “Mad Max: Fury Road,” which I did find more compelling than I expected but hardly worthy of a place here.
Who will win: I can’t understand why “Spotlight” doesn’t have this in the bag. From the moment it lost the Golden Globe, it was no longer the frontrunner, and it really is an Oscar movie! The problem is, whenever a movie has overtaken the Oscar race late in the game, it’s gone the distance. “Boyhood” was the frontrunner last year until “Birdman” started winning everything. The two things that are different: “The Revenant” won the first award, the Globe, and then won the DGA but not the PGA. The only time that a late-breaking film lost the PGA after winning the DGA was in 2004 with “The Aviator,” and “Million Dollar Baby” still won the Oscar. What complicates things is that “The Big Short” is also in the mix after its PGA win, and I, and others, are predicting yet another film, “Mad Max: Fury Road” to prevail for Best Director. It would be an incredibly exciting year if “Spotlight” wasn’t so good, since there’s no reason it should have to work so hard to win. The easy choice would be “The Revenant” given its momentum. If it starts winning a lot of technical categories early on in the night, it will probably make it to the top, but it’s worth noting that it only competes with “Spotlight” in three races - Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Editing - so we just won’t know. I’m still predicting Spotlight and rooting for it all the way.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Director

The competition: Adam McKay (The Big Short), George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant), Lenny Abrahamson (Room), Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)

Previous winners: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman), Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist), Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech), Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire), Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)
My winner: TBA
The facts: Inarritu won this award last year for "Birdman" after being previously nominated in 2006 for "Babel." Though Miller has been nominated for and won Oscars in other categories, this is his first directing bid. McCarthy was previously nominated for writing "Up" and is also recognized for penning the screenplay for his film this year. Inarritu won the Globe, the DGA, and the BAFTA, but in none of those cases have all of these men been nominated. Miller won the Critics' Choice Award. The last director to win this trophy back-to-back was Joseph L. Mankiewicz in 1950 and 1951.

Who should win: He hasn't won anything, but McCarthy is my choice. "Spotlight," which is definitely the Best Picture from among the nominated bunch. He was snubbed by BAFTA and I was worried Oscar voters would forget him too, but he did a tremendous job of guiding his film. Ditto Abrahamson, a fun inclusion who unfortunately knocked Ridley Scott, another deserving helmer, out of the race. Inarritu did a good job too, but this film was nowhere near as tremendous as "Birdman." McKay put in a solid effort for a good film, but he doesn't need to be here. And though it wasn't for me, I can appreciate Miller and, for whatever reason, think I would prefer to see him win than to see Inarritu repeat even if I think that Inarritu is more worthy of the award when it comes to these two over-nominated films since I liked "The Revenant" much more than "Mad Max: Fury Road."
Who will win: The last time this race was really wide open was in 2012 when Ben Affleck wasn't nominated for the locked Best Picture winner, "Argo." That race is up for grabs too, but here Inarritu is a frontrunner but by no means a guarantee. Abrahamson and McKay won't win, and I sincerely doubt that McCarthy could muster an upset, though that would make me happier than anything. It's sort of like two years ago when Steve McQueen didn't have a shot for Best Director even though "12 Years a Slave" ended up winning Best Picture - why shouldn't he be considered? Ultimately, I think that Miller is going to be honored for a body of work and for reinvigorating a franchise decades after it began. It could just as easily be Inarritu, but I'm betting against it.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor

The competition: Bryan Cranston’s communist writer (Trumbo), Matt Damon’s stranded astronaut (The Martian), Leonardo DiCaprio’s determined trapper (The Revenant), Michael Fassbender’s brilliant inventor (Steve Jobs), and Eddie Redmayne’s transitioning artist (The Danish Girl).

Previous winners: Eddie Redmayne, Matthew McConaughey, Daniel Day-Lewis, Jean Dujardin, Colin Firth, Jeff Bridges, Sean Penn, Daniel Day-Lewis
My winner: Jacob Tremblay
The facts: This is the fifth nomination for DiCaprio, who last contended in 2013 for "The Wolf of Wall Street." This is the third nomination for Damon, who was honored for "Good Will Hunting" in 1997 and "Invictus" in 2009. Redmayne won this award last year for "The Theory of Everything." This is the second nomination for Fassbender, who was recognized in 2013 for "12 Years a Slave." Four-time Emmy winner Cranston earns his first Oscar nomination this year. Only DiCaprio and Damon's films are nominated for Best Picture. DiCaprio won at the Globes, SAG, BAFTA, and Critics' Choice Awards.

Who should win: I like DiCaprio but feel like his best performances were actually two Oscar ignored, in "Catch Me If You Can" and "The Departed." I don't mind him winning but I'm not rooting for him the same way everyone else seems to be. Cranston was good and it's a fun performance, and I'm still somewhat surprised that he made it all the way to the Oscrs for the role. Redmayne was great but it wasn't as astounding as last year's winning turn. For me, it's a toss-up between Fassbender and Damon, who were both excellent in terrific films, mixing drama and humor seamlessly to create truly memorable performances.
Who will win: There's no way this doesn't go to DiCaprio. Even though the other Globe winner, Damon, didn't compete at the SAGs, this exact lineup appeared at both BAFTA and the Critics' Choice Awards. With no new nominee to take on DiCaprio and no ill will against him, he has this in the bag.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress

The competition: Cate Blanchett’s unhappy wife (Carol), Brie Larson’s loyal mother (Room), Jennifer Lawrence’s struggling inventor (Joy), Charlotte Rampling’s loyal spouse (45 Years), Saoirse Ronan’s optimistic immigrant (Brooklyn).

Previous winners: Julianne Moore, Cate Blanchett, Jennifer Lawrence, Meryl Streep, Natalie Portman, Sandra Bullock, Kate Winslet, Marion Cotillard
My winner: Brie Larson
The facts: This is Blanchett's seventh nomination. She has won twice, in 2004 for "The Aviator" and in this category in 2013 for "Blue Jasmine." This is Lawrence's fourth nomination in six years. She won in 2012 for "Silver Linings Playbook." Ronan was nominated once before, in 2007 for "Atonement." This is the first nomination for Rampling, and the first for Larson, who took home the Globe, SAG, BAFTA, and Critics' Choice Awards. Larson and Ronan's films are up for Best Picture.

Who should win: This is a great list. I liked Rampling and Ronan but they wouldn't be my first choices. Blanchett was good too but I don't think it's her absolute best work. I personally think that Lawrence was absolutely terrific in her film, and that she deserves this nomination just as much as for her previous roles. Ultimately, though, it's Larson who astounds and will rightfully win this.
Who will win: Every award has gone to Larson, and she'll take home this one too. It will easily be the best win of the night.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

The competition: Christian Bale’s brilliant numbers guy (The Big Short), Tom Hardy’s impatient trapper (The Revenant), Mark Ruffalo’s dedicated journalist (Spotlight), Mark Rylance’s quiet spy (Bridge of Spies), and Sylvester Stallone’s aging Rocky Balboa (Creed).

Previous winners: J.K. Simmons, Jared Leto, Christoph Waltz, Christopher Plummer, Christian Bale, Christoph Waltz, Heath Ledger, Javier Bardem
My winner: Walton Goggins
The facts: Bale won this award in 2010 for "The Fighter" and was nominated again in 2013 for "American Hustle," making this his first bid for a film not directed by David O. Russell. Ruffalo was nominated in 2010 for "The Kids Are All Right" and last year for "Foxcatcher." Stallone contended in 1976 for "Rocky." This is the first nomination for both Rylance and Hardy. All but Stallone's films are nominated for Best Picture. Stallone won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award but wasn't nominated for the BAFTA, where Rylance triumphed, or the SAG, which went to Idris Elba, who isn't even on this list.

Who should win: I'm not too happy with this list since SAG nominees Jacob Tremblay and Michael Shannon didn't make the cut. I would have preferred Michael Keaton over Ruffalo, but I guess a win for him would signify support for the film, which for some reason has not been universal. I'm a big fan of Hardy but don't know that he needed to be nominated for this role, though he was quite good. I wasn't wowed by Rylance like everyone was, and therefore I'm not rooting for him, though I wouldn't be too upset if he won. I'm also okay with the idea of Stallone since he impressed me much more than I expected with a fittingly invested performance in a strong film. The one nominee I really don't want to see win is Bale, since he didn't need to take a spot this year for an admittedly eccentric performance that was far from the best in his film. If I had to pick a winner from this list, it would probably be Hardy or Stallone.
Who will win: The standing ovation Stallone got at the Golden Globes indicates just how respected he is. Rylance might have similar support but his film wasn't nearly as respected, and he doesn't have the momentum that Stallone has. Hardy could win if his film swept, as could Bale, but both of those are unlikely. Ruffalo doesn't have a shot.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

The competition: Jennifer Jason Leigh’s captured convict (The Hateful Eight), Rooney Mara’s impressionable salesgirl (Carol), Rachel McAdams’ determined reporter (Spotlight), Alicia Vikander’s supportive wife (The Danish Girl), and Kate Winslet’s loyal collaborator (Steve Jobs).

Previous winners: Patricia Arquette, Lupita N’yongo, Anne Hathaway, Octavia Spencer, Melissa Leo, Mo’Nique, Penelope Cruz, Tilda Swinton
My winner: Olivia Cooke
The facts: This is the seventh nomination for Winslet, who won in 2008 for "The Reader." Mara was nominated once before, in 2012 for "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo." This is the first nomination for Leigh, McAdams, and Vikander. Only McAdams' film is nominated for Best Picture, not that it matters too much in this category. Winslet won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, but in both those cases Vikander, who won the SAG Award and the Critics Choice Award, was nominated in the lead race.

Who should win: Leigh was entertaining in her film, but she wasn't the best of her talented cast (that honor goes to Walton Goggins). That's even truer for McAdams, who didn't add much to a lackluster role in a very strong film. Mara and Vikander are both questionable leads, but that doesn't hurt them, especially since they eclipse their Oscar-winning costars. I thought Vikander was terrific and I would love to see her win, but I also remember just how superb Winslet was in her underrated film. It would be a far more deserving victory than the film she actually won the Oscar for back in 2008.
Who will win: I'm not secure at all in the fact that Vikander will triumph, but it seems likely since she's won a handful of awards and really does stand out in her film. Leigh and McAdams don't have enough buzz to win, and Mara's film didn't receive a warm enough welcome for her to prevail. Winslet is the only one who might win, but I don't think voters loved the film enough to reward her with a second Oscar so soon.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

The competition: The Big Short (Charles Randolph, Adam McKay), Brooklyn (Nick Hornby), Carol (Phyllis Nagy), The Martian (Drew Goddard), Room (Emma Donoghue)

Previous winners: The Imitation Game, 12 Years a Slave, Argo, The Descendants, The Social Network, Precious, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men
My winner: “Steve Jobs”
The facts: Hornby was nominated in 2009 for writing the screenplay for "An Education." McKay is also nominated this year for directing his film. All of the others are first-time nominees. All but “Carol” are nominated for Best Picture.

Who should win: “Room” or “The Big Short”
Who will win: It might be “Room,” but The Big Short is set to take this.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

The competition: Bridge of Spies (Matt Charman, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen), Ex Machina (Alex Garland), Inside Out (Josh Cooley, Ronnie del Carmen, Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve), Spotlight (Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer), Straight Outta Compton (Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus)

Previous winners: Birdman, Her, Django Unchained, Midnight in Paris, The King’s Speech, The Hurt Locker, Milk, Juno
My winner: “Sleeping with Other People”
The facts: The Coen Brothers have been nominated for screenwriting five times, winning twice - in 2007 for "No Country for Old Men" and "Fargo." Both McCarthy and Docter were nominated for writing "Up," and Docter was also nominated for penning the screenplays for "Wall-E" and "Toy Story." Docter is nominated for Best Animated Feature this year and McCarthy also contends for Best Director. “Bridge of Spies” and “Spotlight” are up for Best Picture.

Who should win: “Spotlight”
Who will win: Even though it may not take home Best Picture (though I’m hoping it will), Spotlight doesn’t have much competition here, unless “Inside Out” staged an unexpected upset.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Live Action Short

The competition:
Ave Maria (B+)
This story of Orthodox Israeli Jews who find themselves stranded after a minor car accident at a nunnery in the West Bank is an entirely amusing and delightful tale, a refreshing case of clashing cultures in a highly temperamental area getting along rather well and providing plenty of entertainment in the process.

Day One (B+)
This short dives right into its intriguing mix of lightheartedness and intensity as an army interpreter in her first day on the job in Afghanistan goes from having to stop to pee after a short walk to having to deliver a bomb-maker’s pregnant wife’s baby. It balances a range of emotions well and tells an involving and complex story.

Everything Will Be Okay (B)
This film about a divorced father acting strange as he begins a weekend with his young daughter is big on the bond between parent and child. As it builds slowly towards an emotionally-charged finish, it conveys character sentiments but doesn’t hit home as dramatically when it comes to its narrative.

Shok (B+)
It’s hard not to like this sweet tale of friendship that takes place in the middle of an ethnic conflict in Kosovo with armed militants roaming the streets. There’s something wonderful about the enduring connection between two young friends that makes this film resonate strongly.

Stutterer (B+)
This film’s title gives away its plot, a heartwarming and enjoyable story about a man with a stutter who struggles to figure out a way to hide his impediment from the woman that he has been chatting with online and who is overcome by the stress of meeting her in person.

Previous winners: The Phone Call, Helium, Cufrew, The Shore, God of Love, The New Tenants, Toyland, The Mozart of Pickpockets, West Bank Story, Six Shooter

Who should win: They’re all pretty good. I would choose “Ave Maria” or “Shok.”
Who will win: Something tells me it will be Day One.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Animated Short

The competition:
Bear Story (B)
This is a sweet and well-animated tale of a lonely bear remembering happy beginnings and miserable endings through a marvelously lively portable presentation. The artistry involved is the best part, and the sad, tender plot makes it hard to shake.

Prologue (D)
The only thing I can compliment about this short, pointlessly brutal picture is that it does a magnificent job of manipulating space using animation. Its content, however, is entirely deplorable and unnecessary, making this unquestionably the worst of the bunch.

Sanjay's Super Team (B-)
This short played before "The Good Dinosaur." It acted like an inspirational, enjoyable fable about a child's imagination and what is important to his father, but I found it to be a bit of a letdown, engaging enough but hardly worthy of celebration.

We Can't Live Without Cosmos (B+)
This one is my clear favorite, an endearing tale of two lifelong friends training to be astronauts. The absence of dialogue is perfectly matched by inspiring visuals and a succesful capturing of the emotions of these two buddies with their heads in the clouds.

World of Tomorrow (C-)
I don't even know what to say about this odd, off-putting short. It starts out interesting, with a girl meeting a robotic future version of her consciousness, and then gets really dark and strange, and not in a good way. The animation is all over the place, purposely, and what should be a productive thought experiment is just puzzling and peculiar.

Previous winners: Feast, Mr. Hublot, Paperman, The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore, The Lost Thing, Logorama, Le Maison en Petits Cubes, Peter and the Wolf

Who should win: I would enthusiastically select “We Can’t Live Without Cosmos.”
Who will win: I think it's a race between Bear Story and "We Can't Live Without Cosmos." My money is on the former. Like all the other nominees except “Sanjay’s Super Team,” it’s still depressing but also clever and endearing.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Short

The competition:
Body Team 12 (B)
This 13-minute documentary doesn't get too far into its content, but does offer a decently compelling look at the cleanup operation following the ebola outbreak in Liberia. It doesn't achieve much, but presents a quick look at a country in crisis.

Chau, Beyond the Lines (B)
This heartwarming film spotlights a young artist who, due to the aftereffects of a chemical used by American forces during the Vietnam War, has limited use of his limbs yet yearns to achieve his dream. It's a fine if short and unfinished portrait.

Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah (B+)
This affecting forty-minute film explores the filmmaker behind one of the most acclaimed miniseries of all time, and traces his journey in researching the Holocaust and going far in search of the truth. Lanzmann's own testimony is a particularly strong part of the film as he reflects back on his life and the difficult process of making "Shoah."

A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness (B+)
This shocking documentary follows Saba, a young Pakistani woman who survived an honor killing attempted by her father and uncle when she dared to marry someone deemed not good enough. What this film uncovers about her society is horrifying, and it's a thoroughly explored and haunting expose.

Last Day of Freedom (B+)
This is by far the most creative of the nominees in this field, utilizing hand-drawn animation to assist its narrative, which mostly involves one man being interviewed, in a very effective style reminiscent of “Waltz with Bashir.” This stirring tale of a war hero sent to death row is a contemplative, affecting exploration of a truly broken system.

Previous winners: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, The Lady in Number 6, Inocente, Saving Face, Strangers No More, Music by Prudence, Smile Pinki, Freeheld, The Blood of Yingzhou District

Who should win: I think I would choose “A Girl in the River,” but I would be happy with “Last Day of Freedom” or “Claude Lanzmann” too. These are all pretty good.
Who will win: I think A Girl in the River has the best shot, but this race is wide open.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary

The competition: Amy, Cartel Land, The Look of Silence, What Happened Miss Simone, Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Previous winners: Citizenfour, Twenty Feet from Stardom, Searching for Sugar Man, Undefeated, Inside Job, The Cove, Man on Wire, Taxi to the Dark Side
My winner: TBA
The facts: Only two nominees have been honored before – Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sorensen – who made “The Act of Killing” in 2012 and the follow-up “The Look of Silence” this year. Two documentaries about underrated musicians have won this award very recently. For how often they’re nominated, films about military conflicts in other countries don’t tend to win this award too much.

Who should win: The two documentaries that most spoke to me were “The Look of Silence” and “Winter on Fire.”
Who will win: Most people think that “Amy” is going to win, but I think Winter on Fire has a good shot at upsetting.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Foreign Film

The competition: Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia), A War (Denmark), Mustang (France), Son of Saul (Hungary), Theeb (Jordan)

Previous winners: Ida (Poland), The Great Beauty (Italy), Amour (Austria), A Separation (Iran), In a Better World (Denmark), The Secret in their Eyes (Argentina), Departures (Japan), The Counterfeiters (Austria)
My winner: TBA
The facts: This is the thirty-ninth nomination for France, which has won twelve times. This is the thirteenth nomination for Denmark, which has won three times. This is the ninth nomination for Hungary, which has won once. Both Colombia and Jordan are nominated for the first time. Every filmmaker is a first-time nominee in this category.

Who should win: “Son of Saul” and “Mustang” are the best films here.
Who will win: Except for when “Pan’s Labyrinth” lost, the undisputed frontrunner in this race usually wins. Having seen the other films, I don’t see anything knocking Son of Saul out of the way.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Animated Feature

The competition: Anomalisa, Boy and the World, Inside Out, Shaun the Sheep Movie, and When Marnie Was There

Previous winners: Big Hero 6, Frozen, Brave, Rango, Toy Story 3, Up, Wall-E, Ratatouille, Happy Feet, Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, The Incredibles, Finding Nemo, Spirited Away, Shrek
My winner: TBA
The facts: This category has existed since 2001. Pixar has won this award a staggering seven times out of nine nominations and contends this year for “Inside Out.” The Japanese Studio Ghibli has won once out of five tries, back in 2002 for “Spirited Away,” and now contends for “When Marnie Was There.” “Shaun the Sheep Movie” is the third stop-motion nominee from Aardman, which won in 2005 for “Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit.” “Boy and the World” and “When Marnie Was There” are the eleventh and twelfth foreign-language nominees in the history of this category. “Spirited Away” is the only one from that list that won. “Inside Out” co-director Pete Docter has been nominated twice before and won for “Up.” “When Marnie Was There” co-director Yoshiaki Nishimura was nominated last year for “The Tale of the Princess Kaguya.” This is “Anaomlisa” co-director Charlie Kaufman’s first nomination in this category, but he has been nominated for three screenwriting Oscars and won once, for “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.” I’m pretty sure that “Anomalisa” is the second R-rated nominee in this category after “Chico and Rita.”

Who should win: “Inside Out” is definitely the best of this bunch.
Who will win: There is simply no way that Inside Out doesn’t take this.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Visual Effects

The competition: Ex Machina, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Previous winners: Interstellar, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo, Inception, Avatar, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Golden Compass
My winner: The Walk
The facts: Though Best Picture nominees have won this award five times in the past six years, never have three nominees here also been up for Best Picture as they are this year. Sci-fi films often win unless there is a major frontrunner out there. The entire “Ex Machina” and “Mad Max: Fury Road” teams are first-time nominees. “The Martian” team has three nominations and one win between them. “The Revenant” team has one previous nomination. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” team has six collective previous nominations.

Who should win: “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” or “Ex Machina”
Who will win: I’m hoping that “The Revenant” won’t eclipse the more deserving Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The competition: The 100-Year-Old-Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant

Previous winners: The Grand Budapest Hotel, Dallas Buyers Club, Les Miserables, The Iron Lady, The Wolfman, Star Trek, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, La Vie en Rose
My winner: Black Mass
The facts: Such non-Oscar films as “The Wolfman” and “The Nutty Professor” have won this award, as have Best Picture contenders. Every makeup artist and hairstylist nominated this year is a first-time nominee.

Who should win: I wouldn’t go with “Mad Max: Fury Road,” but the other two are fine.
Who will win: It could be one of the omnipresent films nominated in every category, but I’m going to trust that anyone who watched The 100-Year-Old-Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared and saw the transformation of its protagonist will award that film.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Sound Editing

The competition: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Sicario, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Previous winners: American Sniper, Gravity, Skyfall/Zero Dark Thirty, Hugo, Inception, The Hurt Locker, The Dark Knight, The Bourne Ultimatum
My winner: The Walk
The facts: “Mad Max: Fury Road” sound editors Mark Mangini and David White are nominated for the fourth and first time, respectively. “The Martian” sound editor Oliver Tarney has been nominated once before. “The Revenant” editor Martin Hernandez has been nominated once before, and Lon Bender has contended three times before, winning in 1995 for “Braveheart.” This is the eighth nomination for “Sicario” sound editor Alan Robert Murray, who won for “Letters of Iwo Jima” and last year for “American Sniper.” This is the third nomination for “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” editor Matthew Wood and the first for David Acord. War or action movies tend to win this award. “Star Wars” statistics here aren’t too relevant since there weren’t nominees in 1977 and 1980. Both episode six and one were nominated and neither won.

Who should win: “The Revenant”
Who will win: It might be “Mad Max: Fury Road,” but I think The Revenant will take this.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Sound

The competition: Bridge of Spies, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Previous winners: Whiplash, Gravity, Les Miserables, Hugo, Inception, The Hurt Locker, Slumdog Millionaire, The Bourne Ultimatum
My winner: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The facts: Each nominated team contains at least two sound mixers who have been nominated many times before, and some quick analysis indicates that it’s way too much information to filter and count. Usually, sci-fi films, action films, and musicals do well here. From the “Star Wars” saga, episodes four and five won this award, and six and one were nominated.

Who should win: “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” or “The Martian”
Who will win: I see this going to Mad Max: Fury Road over “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” though it’s hardly a lock.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Song

The competition: “Earned It” (Fifty Shades of Grey), “Manta Ray” (Racing Extinction), “Simple Song #3” (Youth), “’Til It Happens To You” (The Hunting Ground), “Writing’s on the Wall” (Spectre)

Previous winners: Selma (Glory), Let It Go (Frozen), Skyfall (Skyfall), Man or Muppet (The Muppets), We Belong Together (Toy Story 3), The Weary Kind (Crazy Heart), Jai Ho (Slumdog Millionaire), Falling Slowly (Once), I Need To Wake Up (An Inconvenient Truth)
My winner: “See You Again” (Furious 7)
The facts: Only two musicians are previous nominees. Dianne Warren, who worked with Lady Gaga on “’Til It Happens To You,” has been nominated seven times before, including last year, and has yet to win. J. Ralph, who wrote “Manta Ray,” was nominated in 2012 for “Before My Time” from “Chasing Ice.” Four James Bond films have contended in this category. Only one – the most recent – “Skyfall” – took home the award.

Who should win: I’m not too big on these songs, so I guess I’d choose “Simply Song #3,” but I’m not too set.
Who will win: “Writing’s on the Wall” won the Golden Gloebe. I think this is going to ’Til It Happens To You.