Golden Globe Musings: Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
George Clooney (Up in the Air)
Colin Firth (A Single Man)
Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
Tobey Maguire (Brothers)

Last year, the fifth slot in this category still needed to be filled (Jeremy Renner took it at the Oscars), and so we got Tobey Maguire. This year, we have three pretty definitive locks, and then it gets fuzzier. Colin Firth (The King’s Speech), a nominee last year, is a no-brainer. Same goes for James Franco (127 Hours) and Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter), unless the latter film mysteriously isn’t a hit. Last year’s winner Jeff Bridges (True Grit) is a good bet for the fourth slot, though it’s to know how the film will be received and if the acting branches will be filled with nominees from its ranks. Competing for the fifth slot we have a few strong contenders, like Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Aaron Eckhart (Rabbit Hole), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), and Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine). I’m less confident about the chances of one Ben Affleck (The Town), though he was an acting nominee in the supporting category two years ago. My prediction for the fifth spot is Leonardo DiCaprio (Inception), who earned two nominations in this category back in 2006. With two major films out this year, I think he’s a good shot for at least one of them, and since the Globes allow multiple nominations for an actor within one category, I think this is where he makes it in. An interesting fact: all five of my predicted nominees have been nominated at least once before.

Predicted nominees:
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Inception)
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)