Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition:

Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) plays singer Ma Rainey. Davis won a Globe in 2016 for “Fences” and has four additional previous nominations, two for film and two for TV. She is joined this year by her late costar, Chadwick Boseman.

Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) plays singer Billie Holiday. This is her first Globe nomination, but she also contends this year for a song from her film.

Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) plays grieving mother Martha Weiss. This is her first Globe nomination, and she is the only representative from her film.

Frances McDormand (Nomadland) plays traveler Fern. She won this prize in 2017 for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” and has five additional previous nominations, along with an ensemble cast prize for “Short Cuts” in 1993. Her film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and two other awards.

Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) plays revenge-seeker Cassie Thomas. She has one previous nomination, in this category in 2009 for “An Education.” Her film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and two other awards.

Additional notes: Everyone but Day is also nominated for an individual SAG Award, and all of them were cited by the Critics Choice Association. The winner of this category has gone on to win the Oscar seven times in the past decade.
Who should win? These are all superb performances. While I’d be happy to see any of them rewarded, my clear choice is Mulligan.
Who will win? I thought for a while that it was definitely going to be McDormand, but I think I’m going to predict Mulligan.