Golden Globe Winner Predictions

The Golden Globes are tonight! Check out my winner predictions over at FilmFactual!

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Cyrano
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
tick, tick…BOOM!
West Side Story

Two presumed Oscar frontrunners for Best Picture are also the likely leaders here, Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin. It’s probable that sequel Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story will join its original as a nominee in this category, and Babylon feels like a good bet even if not everyone loves it. For the fifth slot, The Menu, Bros, and Triangle of Sadness seem likeliest. Other hopefuls include Cha Cha Real Smooth, White Noise, Spirited, Catherine Called Birdy, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Nope, Hustle, Amsterdam, Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul, A Man Called Otto, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, and, presuming they’re eligible here, Bodies Bodies Bodies or Bullet Train. Watch out also for two international features benefiting from being able to compete here this year: Bardo and RRR.

Current predictions:
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
The Menu

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Drama

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog

An important update in this race is that international features are now eligible, though I’m not sure any will make the cut this time around, with All Quiet on the Western Front and Decision to Leave probably likeliest to do so, if any do. The frontrunners are The Fabelmans, Women Talking, and Tár. I think that She Said and Top Gun: Maverick will join them, but they’ll face plenty of competition from The Whale, Empire of Light, Elvis, Aftersun, Till, Causeway, Bones and All, Living, The Woman King, Emancipation, The Son, Thirteen Lives, and The Inspection. Avatar: The Way of Water and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever may also join their predecessors as nominees in this category.

Current predictions:
The Fabelmans
She Said
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

This is a category that mostly draws from Best Motion Picture - Drama nominees and a well-received Comedy/Musical honoree or two. The last two years have featured at least two female nominees, and that may or may not be repeated this year. Sarah Polley (Women Talking) is a sure thing, while Maria Schrader (She Said) and Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King) are true longshots. Likeliest to join Polley are Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Other possibilities include Todd Field (Tár), Damien Chazelle (Babylon), James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Darren Aronofsky (The Whale), Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness), Sam Mendes (Empire of Light), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), and Noah Baumbach (White Noise). I suspect that the final slot will go to an international director who just won the New York Film Critics Circle prize: S.S. Rajamouli (RRR).

Current predictions:
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
S.S. Rajamouli (RRR)
Sarah Polley (Women Talking)

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog

The Globes don’t have separate categories for original and adapted screenplays, which means that the buzziest films nominated in the top races often place here, along with a few surprising inclusions every couple of years. I have a pretty good idea of four films that will probably place: The Fabelmans, Women Talking, The Banshees of Inisherin, and Everything Everywhere All at Once. For the fifth slot, there are many options. I’m opting for She Said, though it could also be The Whale, Tár, or Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. Other options include The Menu, White Noise, Triangle of Sadness, and Empire of Light. If the films are well-loved, watch out for Babylon, Bros, Elvis, and RRR.

Current predictions:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
She Said
Women Talking

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Original Song

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Down to Joy (Belfast)
Dos Oruguitas (Encanto)
Be Alive (King Richard)
No Time to Die (No Time to Die)
Here I Am (Singing My Way Home) (Respect)

This category is especially hard to predict without the list of fifteen finalists for the corresponding Oscar race, which won’t be released until after Globe nominations are unveiled. Presumed frontrunners include Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick), Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), This is a Life (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Carolina (Where the Crawdads Sing), Do a Little Good (Spirited), Stand Up (Till), Nobody Like U (Turning Red), and Ciao Papa (Pinocchio). It would be fun to see creative choices like Naatu Naatu (RRR) and Love is Not Love (Bros), and watch out also for Applause (Tell It Like a Woman) and My Mind and Me (Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me), signature songs from movies that will not show up in any other categories.

Current predictions:
Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Love is Not Love (Bros)
Naatu Naatu (RRR)
Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick)
Carolina (Where the Crawdads Sing)

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Original Score

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Dune
Encanto
The French Dispatch
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog

While I love listening to scores on repeat once nominations come in, I always feel a bit lost beforehand. Frontrunners that should be major players in other categories include The Fabelmans, Women Talking, Babylon, Tár, and She Said, while Pinocchio and The Batman are also possible choices. Watch out also for sequels like Avatar: The Way of Water and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever to previously-nominated films, and fun choices like RRR.

Current predictions:
Babylon
The Fabelmans
Pinocchio
Tár
Women Talking

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Foreign Language Film

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Compartment No. 6 (Finland)
Drive My Car (Japan)
The Hand of God (Italy)
A Hero (Iran)
Parallel Mothers (Spain)

There are some likely frontrunners in this race, most of which are also the official Oscar submissions from their countries. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany), Bardo (Mexico), EO (Poland), Argentina 1985 (Argentina), Corsage (Austria), Decision to Leave (South Korea), Joyland (Pakistan), Holy Spider (Denmark), Klondike (Ukraine), Girl Picture (Finland), and Saint Omer (France) all have buzz. I’d watch out also for three films that are on the Globes’ official list but weren’t selected for the Oscars’: Hunt (South Korea), One Fine Morning (France), and, most importantly, RRR (India).

Current predictions:
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Bardo (Mexico)
EO (Poland)
Hunt (South Korea)
RRR (India)

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Animated Film

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
My Sunny Maad
Raya and the Last Dragon

I feel like I’ve seen more animated fare than in the past at this point of awards season, but I’m still not sure which five films will populate this race. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio and Marcel the Shell with Shoes On feel like the best bets, and I think that both Pixar entries from this year, Turning Red and Lightyear, can make the cut. Both appear to have their detractors, and I particularly liked the latter, especially more than “Toy Story 4,” which was nominated in this race two years ago before winning the corresponding Oscar. For the fifth slot, I think Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is the best bet, though Wendell and Wild, The Bad Guys, My Father’s Dragon, and Strange World could easily show up too. I’d be thrilled to see Apollo 10 ½: A Space Age Childhood made the cut too.

Current predictions:
Lightyear
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Pinocchio
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Caitriona Balfe (Belfast)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Ruth Negga (Passing)

Two films have two contenders each, and it’s hard to imagine double dual nominees. Jessie Buckley (Women Talking) and Claire Foy (Women Talking) both seem likely to get in, while I think that Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) and Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) will both just miss out. Hong Chau (The Whale) is a good bet, though I do wish that her costar Sadie Sink (The Whale) was getting similar attention. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) is a wonderful standout of a film I liked much less than most people, and, provided she’s not classified as a lead, Carey Mulligan (She Said) could round out this category. The same thing goes for Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story). Votes will also surely go to Nina Hoss (Tár), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Gabrielle Union (The Inspection), and Jean Smart (Babylon)

Current predictions:
Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Claire Foy (Women Talking)
Carey Mulligan (She Said)

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar)
Jamie Dornan (Belfast)
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

I feel most confident in my choices for this category, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to be right. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) and Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) are the safest bets, and Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) and Ben Whishaw (Women Talking) seem likely to join them. I think Brad Pitt (Babylon) will land the fifth slot, even if it’s not a performance that will necessarily translate to Oscar love. Two of my predicted nominees have costars who could join them – Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) – and, if their films go over well, Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness), Mark Rylance (Bones and All), and Tom Hanks (Elvis) could benefit, and a few performers could show up even without their films: Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Harry Styles (My Policeman), and Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse).

Current predictions:
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brad Pitt (Babylon)
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Marion Cotillard (Annette)
Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)
Jennifer Lawrence (Don’t Look Up)
Emma Stone (Cruella)
Rachel Zegler (West Side Story)

There’s only one true lock in this category, and that’s Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once). It’s likely that Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande) will score for a film that was initially supposed to compete as a TV movie before an exception was made, and Margot Robbie (Babylon) is a good bet too even if her film doesn’t go over too well overall. Beyond that, Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu) and Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris) are likely to fill out the category. But there are a number of other options too, including Keke Palmer (Nope), Bella Ramsey (Catherine Called Birdy), Dakota Johnson (Cha Cha Real Smooth), Regina Hall (Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul), and Julia Roberts (Ticket to Paradise). If she’s not classified as supporting, Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story) could show up, and it would be nice to see the late Charlbi Dean (Triangle of Sadness) rewarded following her untimely passing.

Current predictions:
Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris)
Margot Robbie (Babylon)
Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu)
Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up)
Peter Dinklage (Cyrano)
Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!)
Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza)
Anthony Ramos (In the Heights)

This category has a ton of contenders, though there are a few distinctly at the head of the pack. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) is the only one with serious Oscar buzz, and he’s likely to be joined here by Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), reprising a previously Globe-nominated performance, Diego Calva (Babylon), a strong element of a film that’s likely to be divisive, and Billy Eichner (Bros), delivering a truly and unapologetically comedic turn. For slot number five, there are plenty of options. Adam Driver (White Noise), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu), Adam Sandler (Hustle), Will Ferrell (Spirited), and Ryan Reynolds (Spirited) all have previous nominations in this category. Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto), George Clooney (Ticket to Paradise), and Brad Pitt (Bullet Train), which may or may not be eligible here, all have long histories of being rewarded, while Sterling K. Brown (Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul) and Jim Parsons (Spoiler Alert) may be able to translate TV wins to film nominations. There may also be room for four younger actors turning in worthwhile performances: Cooper Raiff (Cha Cha Real Smooth), Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande) and Harris Dickinson (Triangle of Sadness).

Current predictions:
Diego Calva (Babylon)
Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
Adam Driver (White Noise),
Billy Eichner (Bros)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

This category feels like it has seven strong contenders, with a few outliers who could bump a few of them out if their films are very well-received. Cate Blanchett (Tár), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) feel safe. Viola Davis (The Woman King) probably is too, though I’m not sure how warmly her film will be embraced (not that it matters, given her popularity). For the fifth slot, I’m going with Naomi Ackie (I Wanna Dance with Somebody), but I am concerned that voters haven’t actually seen the movie yet (I haven’t either), but Andra Day got in – and then won – for a similar musical performance in a drama that hadn’t been widely seen early two years ago. A nominee from last year, Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), could easily return, and Ana de Armas (Blonde), whose film doesn’t seem to be too adored, feels like the type of performance that Globe voters will love to honor. Other possibilities include Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway), Zoe Kazan (She Said), Carey Mulligan (She Said), Taylor Russell (Bones and All), Rooney Mara (Women Talking), and Florence Pugh (Don’t Worry Darling).

Current predictions:
Naomi Ackie (I Wanna Dance with Somebody)
Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Viola Davis (The Woman King)
Danielle Deadwyler
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Mahershala Ali (Swan Song)
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

This category doesn’t feel all that loaded, which suggests that there could be some true surprises who show up. At the head of the pack are Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Austin Butler (Elvis), two actors whose films may earn other nominations but also may not. Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) has a much better Golden Globes history than he does with Oscar, winning three of his seven bids. While some prognosticators believe that Bill Nighy (Living) and Hugh Jackman (The Son) will grab the last two slots, I feel like the former is too under-the-radar and the latter is in a film that no one seems to like (I didn’t hate it but also was not impressed by either the film or Jackman’s performance). I’m also not sure that last year’s winner, Will Smith (Emancipation), can return following what happened at the Oscars, but if voters had the chance to see the film, he might just make it. Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans) and Harry Styles (Don’t Worry Darling) are possibilities, but I think two other independent film darlings are likelier: Jeremy Pope (The Inspection) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun).

Current predictions:
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The competition:
Cyrano is directed by Joe Wright, marking his eighth film. Star Peter Dinklage is nominated for his performance.

Don’t Look Up is directed by Adam McKay, marking his ninth film. Stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence are nominated for their performances, and it also contends for its screenplay.

Licorice Pizza is directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, marking his ninth film. Stars Alana Haim and Cooper Hoffman are nominated for their performances, and it also contends for its screenplay.

tick, tick…BOOM! is directed by Lin-Manuel Miranda, marking his directorial debut. Star Andrew Garfield is nominated for his performance.

West Side Story is directed by Steven Spielberg, marking his thirty-third film. Stars Rachel Zegler and Ariana DeBose are nominated for their performances, and Spielberg contends for his direction.

Additional notes: Prior to last year, when “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” won this prize, the winner of this award had gone on to be nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture ten years in a row, triumphing there twice, in 2011 for “The Artist” and last year for “Green Book.” Despite a musical being nominated almost every year since, the last such film to win this prize was “Les Miserables” in 2012. The original “West Side Story” won the Best Motion Picture – Musical prize exactly sixty years ago.
What should win? “Licorice Pizza” is one of my favorite films of the year. I’d also be fine with “tick, tick…BOOM!” or “West Side Story” triumphing.
What will win? This seems like a pretty easy victory for West Side Story.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Drama

The competition:
Belfast is directed by Kenneth Branagh, marking his seventeenth film. It is tied for the nominations leader, also contending for its director, screenplay, song, and performances from actors Jamie Dornan, Ciarán Hinds, and Caitriona Balfe.

CODA is directed by Sian Heder, marking her second film. Supporting actor Troy Kotsur has the film’s only other mention.

Dune is directed by Denis Villeneuve, marking his tenth film. It also contends for its directing and its score.

King Richard is directed by Reinaldo Marcus Green, marking his third film. It also contends for its song and performances from stars Will Smith and Aunjanue Ellis.

The Power of the Dog is directed by Jane Campion, marking her eighth film. It is tied for the nominations leader, also contends for its directing, screenplay, score, and performances from Benedict Cumberbatch, Kodi Smit-McPhee, and Kirsten Dunst.

Additional notes: The winner of this award has gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture only five times in the past fifteen years, and only three times in the entire history of the Globes, most recently in 1963, has the winner been snubbed altogether at the Oscars. Only “Belfast” and “The Power of the Dog” have both their screenplays and director nominated.
What should win? Well, “CODA” is my favorite film of the year and “Belfast” and “Dune” are also in my top ten, so any of those will do! I’m fine with “The Power of the Dog” too, even if it’s not at the top of my list.
What will win? I’m not sure, but I think The Power of the Dog is ahead here.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

The competition:
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) directs his seventeenth film. He has four previous nominations for acting, most recently in 2011 for “My Week with Marilyn.” He is also nominated for writing his film, which is tied as the nominations leader.

Denis Villeneuve (Dune) directs his tenth film. This is his first Globe nomination. His film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and its score.

Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter) makes her directorial debut. She has four previous nominations for acting, winning in 2014 for “The Honourable Woman.” Her film also contends for its performance from star Olivia Colman.

Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) directs her eighth film, which also earned her a nomination for writing. She was previously nominated in both categories in 1993 for “The Piano.” Her film is tied as the nominations leader.

Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) directs his thirty-third film. He has an impressive twelve previous nominations in this category and one for screenwriting, plus he received the Cecil B. DeMille Award in 2007. He won twice, in 1993 for “Schindler’s List” and in 1998 for “Saving Private Ryan.” His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and its stars Rachel Zegler and Ariana DeBose.

Additional notes: The winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar eight times out of the past fifteen years, with only Ben Affleck missing out on a nomination altogether. In all but two cases, the winner of this race has also won the corresponding top prize (drama, comedy, or foreign). Two women have won this award in the past – Barbra Streisand in 1983 for “Yentl” and Chloe Zhao last year for “Nomadland.” Only “The Lost Daughter” is not nominated for a best picture award.
Who should win? These are all strong choices. I think my pick would be Branagh or Villeneuve.
Who will win? It could be Spielberg, but I think Campion wins.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition:
Being the Ricardos was written by Aaron Sorkin. He has eight previous nominations in this category, with three wins, for “The Social Network” in 2010, “Steve Jobs” in 2015, and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” last year, which also earned him a nomination for directing. His film’s stars Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem are also nominated.

Belfast was written by Kenneth Branagh. He has four previous nominations for acting, most recently in 2011 for “My Week with Marilyn.” He is also nominated for directing his film, which is tied as the nominations leader.

Don’t Look Up was written by Adam McKay. This is his third nomination in this category, following “The Big Short” in 2015 and “Vice” in 2018, which also earned him a nomination for directing. The film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence.

Licorice Pizza was written by Paul Thomas Anderson. This is his first Globe nomination. The film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and stars Alana Haim and Cooper Hoffman.

The Power of the Dog was written by Jane Campion, who is also nominated this year for Best Director. She was previously nominated in both categories in 1993 for “The Piano.” Her film is tied as the nominations leader.

Additional notes: The winner of this category has gone on to win one of the two corresponding Oscar prizes eight times in the past fifteen years, and only once in that time has ended up being snubbed altogether. A Best Director nomination isn’t crucial here to a win, but it does help.
What should win? This is a good list, but “Belfast” and “Licorice Pizza” really stick out as the best. I’d probably choose the latter.
What will win? I’m honestly not sure. Maybe Belfast?

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Original Song

The competition:
Down to Joy (Belfast) was written by Van Morrison, marking his first nomination. The film is the nominations leader.

Dos Oruguitas (Encanto) was written by Lin-Manuel Miranda. He was nominated in this category in 2016 for a song from “Moana” and twice for his performances, in “Hamilton” and “Mary Poppins Returns.” The film is also nominated for Best Animated Film and Best Original Score.

Be Alive (King Richard) was written by Beyoncé and Dixson. She has three previous nominations in this category, for “The Lion King,” “Cadillac Records,” and “Dreamgirls.” She was also nominated for her performance in “Dreamgirls.” This is Dixson’s first nomination. The film is also up for Best Motion Picture – Drama and for stars Will Smith and Aunjanue Ellis.

No Time to Die (No Time to Die) was written by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell. It’s the first nomination for both, and represents the only bid for the film.

Here I Am (Singing My Way Home) (Respect) was written by Jennifer Hudson, Jamie Hartman, and Carole King. This is the first nomination for Hartman and King. Hudson won her previous bid, which was for acting in “Dreamgirls” in 2006. This is the only nomination for the film.

Additional notes: All five of these songs made the fifteen-wide finalist list for the corresponding Oscar category. The winner of this award has gone on to win the Oscar seven times out of the past fifteen years, though six of the remaining times the winner wasn’t even nominated there. Eight James Bond songs have been nominated in the past, and the two most recent entries – from “Skyfall” and “Spectre” – won.
What should win? It’s a good list, but it has to be “No Time to Die.”
What will win? I don’t see how it’s anything but No Time to Die.