Golden Globe Nominees: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? She Said, The Whale

I’m relieved that at least Women Talking wasn’t snubbed here since it had the most disappointing day of all, missing out on multiple expected acting bids, a director mention, and a top category nomination. The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, and Everything Everywhere All at Once all scored nominations for directing also, while TÁR surely came close too based on its overall performance.

Who will win? I think this win goes to The Fabelmans but it could be any of them.

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog

The Globes don’t have separate categories for original and adapted screenplays, which means that the buzziest films nominated in the top races often place here, along with a few surprising inclusions every couple of years. I have a pretty good idea of four films that will probably place: The Fabelmans, Women Talking, The Banshees of Inisherin, and Everything Everywhere All at Once. For the fifth slot, there are many options. I’m opting for She Said, though it could also be The Whale, Tár, or Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. Other options include The Menu, White Noise, Triangle of Sadness, and Empire of Light. If the films are well-loved, watch out for Babylon, Bros, Elvis, and RRR.

Current predictions:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
She Said
Women Talking

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition:
Being the Ricardos was written by Aaron Sorkin. He has eight previous nominations in this category, with three wins, for “The Social Network” in 2010, “Steve Jobs” in 2015, and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” last year, which also earned him a nomination for directing. His film’s stars Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem are also nominated.

Belfast was written by Kenneth Branagh. He has four previous nominations for acting, most recently in 2011 for “My Week with Marilyn.” He is also nominated for directing his film, which is tied as the nominations leader.

Don’t Look Up was written by Adam McKay. This is his third nomination in this category, following “The Big Short” in 2015 and “Vice” in 2018, which also earned him a nomination for directing. The film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence.

Licorice Pizza was written by Paul Thomas Anderson. This is his first Globe nomination. The film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and stars Alana Haim and Cooper Hoffman.

The Power of the Dog was written by Jane Campion, who is also nominated this year for Best Director. She was previously nominated in both categories in 1993 for “The Piano.” Her film is tied as the nominations leader.

Additional notes: The winner of this category has gone on to win one of the two corresponding Oscar prizes eight times in the past fifteen years, and only once in that time has ended up being snubbed altogether. A Best Director nomination isn’t crucial here to a win, but it does help.
What should win? This is a good list, but “Belfast” and “Licorice Pizza” really stick out as the best. I’d probably choose the latter.
What will win? I’m honestly not sure. Maybe Belfast?

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition:

The Father was written by Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton. This is the first nomination for director Zeller, while Hampton previously contended in this race in 2007 for “Atonement.” The film also contends for Best Motion Picture – Drama and stars Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Colman.

Mank was written by Jack Fincher, earning his first Globe nomination almost eighteen years after his death for writing a film directed by his son David. The film is the nominations leader, contending for Best Motion Picture – Drama, its director, its score, and stars Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried.

Nomadland was written by Chloé Zhao, who is also nominated this year for Best Director. This marks her first nomination. The film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and star Frances McDormand.

Promising Young Woman was written by Emerald Fennell, who is also nominated this year for Best Director. This marks her first nomination. The film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and star Carey Mulligan.

The Trial of the Chicago 7 was written by Aaron Sorkin, who is also nominated this year for Best Director. He has an impressive seven previous nominations in this category, most recently in 2017 for “Molly’s Game.” He won in 2015 for “Steve Jobs” and in 2010 for “The Social Network.” The film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama, a song, and star Sacha Baron Cohen.

Additional notes: The winner of this category has gone on to win one of the two corresponding Oscar prizes nine times in the past fifteen years, and only once in that time has ended up being snubbed altogether. A Best Director nomination isn’t crucial here to a win, but it does help. This is the first time in thirty years that all five of these nominees have also been up for Best Motion Picture – Drama.
What should win? Though “The Father” is well-written, it’s not one of my top choices. The same goes for “Nomadland.” I very much appreciated both “Mank” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” but the most formidable script of this bunch is certainly “Promising Young Woman.”
What will win? This category feels uncertain, but I think Sorkin prevails for The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? One Night in Miami, Minari

If I had to guess which of the films I had predicted would be left off, it certainly wouldn’t be “One Night in Miami,” but for some reason that’s absent from this list. I had predicted that this list would match the Best Motion Picture – Drama field exactly, which it did, though I didn’t think that The Father would be one of those choices. This is first time in thirty years that such a match-up has happened between the two categories. I’m happy that Promising Young Woman made the cut because it was not a sure thing, and this only helps to bolster the general awards chances, both with this group and elsewhere, for the other three, Nomadland, Mank, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. It’s the kind of boost that “Minari” could have used.

Who will win? I suspect this could be Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced shortly, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that, especially this year, it’s hard to know which films and performances will end up being honored.

Last year’s nominees:
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
The Two Popes

The Globes don’t have separate categories for original and adapted screenplays, which means that the buzziest films nominated in the top races often place here, along with a few surprising inclusions every couple of years. Both “Roma” and “Parasite” made the cut in the past two years, and I think that suggests that another subtitled entry, Minari, has a decent shot. It will have to compete with The Trial of the Chicago 7, Nomadland, Mank, and Promising Young Woman, as well as other possibilities like The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, Sound of Metal, On the Rocks, and First Cow.

Current predictions:
Mank
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition:
The Irishman was written by Steven Zaillian, who won this award in 1993 for “Schindler’s List” and was nominated again in 2011 for “Moneyball.” The film also contends for Best Motion Picture – Drama, director Martin Scorsese, and stars Al Pacino and Joe Pesci.

Marriage Story was written by Noah Baumbach, earning his first Globe bid this year. The film is the nominations leader, contending for Best Motion Picture – Drama, its score and three of its stars.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was written by Quentin Tarantino, who is also nominated this year for Best Director. He won this award twice, in 1994 for “Pulp Fiction” and in 2012 for “Django Unchained.” He has two additional previous bids in this category and three for directing. His film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt.

Parasite was written by Bong Joon Ho, who is also nominated this year for Best Director, and Han Jin Won, who earns his first bid this year. His film is also nominated for Best Foreign Film.

The Two Popes was written by Anthony McCarten, who earns his first Globe nomination. The film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and stars Jonathan Pryce and Anthony Hopkins.

Additional notes: The winner of this category has gone on to win one of the two corresponding Oscar prizes nine times in the past fifteen years, and only once in that time has ended up being snubbed altogether. Only twice in recent history has a foreign film been nominated in this race, in 2007 for “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” and last year for “Roma.” A Best Director nomination isn’t crucial here to a win, but it does help.
What should win? I wasn’t anywhere near as gung-ho for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” as anyone else, and I didn’t love some aspects of the screenplay for “The Two Popes.” It may be long, but “The Irishman” is definitely well-written. I’d pick either “Marriage Story” or “Parasite.”
What will win? I think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood prevails here over “Marriage Story” and “The Irishman.”

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

My predictions: 3/5, missing “Parasite” and “The Two Popes”
Who’s missing? Jojo Rabbit, The Farewell, Little Women, Bombshell

This lineup is pretty expected, even if I didn’t quite predict it. Parasite, one of my favorite films of the year, becomes the third-ever and second consecutive foreign film nominated here (at least based on my research last year). A bid here added to a better-than-expected haul for The Two Popes, which now up their Oscar chances considerably. It’s no surprise that Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and The Irishman all scored here. These are some solid scripts, even if I don’t love Tarantino’s all that much.

Who will win? I think this goes to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced shortly, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
Vice

The Globes don’t have separate categories for original and adapted screenplays, which means that the buzziest films nominated in the top races often place here, along with a few surprising inclusions every couple of years. Last year, I didn’t expect foreign film “Roma” to make the cut, which suggests that maybe Parasite could show up this year. I suspect that Marriage Story and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood are likeliest to lead this list, with Little Women, The Farewell, Jojo Rabbit, The Two Popes, and Bombshell.

Current predictions:
The Farewell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition:
The Favourite was written by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, both first-time nominees. The film also contends for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and all three of its stars.

Green Book was written by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, and Peter Farrelly, all first-time nominees. Farrelly also contends for Best Director, and the film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and both of its stars.

If Beale Street Could Talk was written by Barry Jenkins, a previous nominee in this category and for Best Director in 2016 for “Moonlight.” His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and for supporting actress Regina King.

Roma was written by Alfonso Cuaron, who is also nominated this year for Best Director. He won that award in 2013 for “Gravity.” His film is also nominated for Best Foreign Film, a prize he previously contended for with “Y Tu Mama Tambien” in 2001, this year.

Vice was written by Adam McKay, who is also nominated this year for Best Director and who contended in this category in 2015 for “The Big Short.” His film is the nominations leader with six total bids, including Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical.

Additional notes: The winner of this category has gone on to win one of the two corresponding Oscar prizes ten times in the past fifteen years, and only once in that time has ended up being snubbed altogether. Only once in recent history has a foreign film been nominated in this race, and that was 2007 nominee “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.” A Best Director nomination isn’t crucial here to a win, but it does help.
What should win? I have plenty of issues with “Vice,” which I don’t think should necessarily be here, and much as I really liked “Roma,” I’m not sure its screenplay was worthy of particular commendation. “Green Book” is delightful and entertaining, and “If Beale Street Could Talk” is beautifully written. The script that truly sparkled was “The Favourite,” full of fantastic lines and a superb narrative.
What will win? I’m going to optimistically pick The Favourite though I’m worried about “Vice” taking it instead.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

My predictions: 3/5, missing “Roma” and “Vice”
Who’s missing? BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, A Star is Born, First Reformed, Eighth Grade

From what I can tell, this is only the second time a foreign film has been nominated in this category in recent history, following “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” eleven years ago, which took home the Best Director prize. That’s likely to be the same way things go for Roma, which wasn’t eligible for the Best Motion Picture – Drama prize due to its being in Spanish and from Mexico. That wasn’t a guaranteed nomination, so it’s a plus for the film. That’s also true for Vice, which made up for its slow awards season start with the highest overall take for a film, earning six bids. The Favourite missed out in the director race but showed up here, which is good, while Green Book scored everywhere it really could have. Rounding out the race is If Beale Street Could Talk, which didn’t do tremendously but earned a very deserved mention in this category. None of the films that missed out are too surprising since they’ll likely show up when there are two categories to fill.

Who will win? Based on its haul, I’ll pick Vice over “The Favourite” for now.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Lady Bird
Molly’s Game
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The Globes don’t have separate categories for original and adapted screenplays, which means that the buzziest films nominated in the top races often place here, along with a few surprising inclusions every couple of years. While A Star is Born and Roma may do very well elsewhere, it’s not guaranteed that they’ll score here. The Favourite, on the other hand, feels like a frontrunner, and BlacKkKlansman will probably show up too. Green Book is likely to place, and Vice and If Beale Street Could Talk might too. If voters like the film, Can You Ever Forgive Me? seems like a worthwhile choice here. Eighth Grade is a solid bet for an Oscar bid but will have a harder time cracking this category. I’d be excited to see Widows, which stands an outside chance if it goes over well in other categories.

Current predictions:
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition: Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Aaron Sorkin (Molly’s Game), Liz Hannah and Josh Singer (The Post), Guillermo Del Toro and Vanessa Taylor (The Shape of Water), Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

For your information: Sorkin has been nominated six times, winning for “The Social Network” and “Steve Jobs.” This year, his film is the only one not nominated for a best picture prize. Singer was nominated two years ago for a similar project, “Spotlight.” Gerwig has been nominated before for acting work. Del Toro and McDonagh are also nominated as their film’s directors this year.

Who should win? I haven’t seen Sorkin’s film yet. I liked the writing in “Lady Bird” and “The Shape of Water” best.

Who will win? I think that Gerwig could triumph here for Lady Bird, though any of the others could too.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Screenplay - Motion Picture

My predictions: 2/5, picking only “Lady Bird” and “The Shape of Water”
What’s missing? Call Me By Your Name, Get Out, The Big Sick, Darkest Hour

Changing my predictions here was a bad idea, since two of my original guesses, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Post did end up picking up nominations. I should have guessed that Molly’s Game would be here, joined by the well-received Lady Bird and nominations leader The Shape of Water. The absence of both “Call Me By Your Name” and “Get Out” is notable but hardly damning, although neither film performed as well as its adherents had hoped and expected. I still have to see two of these, so more thoughts in my winner predictions.

Who will win? I think that Sorkin wins again for Molly’s Game.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals

This category aggregates original and adapted scripts, tending towards the more story-driven films. Something like Dunkirk probably won’t make the cut, while The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and The Post seem like very good bets. I’m not sure about Call Me By Your Name, Get Out, or The Florida Project, whereas Lady Bird and The Big Sick could show up in their place. Mudbound, Darkest Hour, or even Last Flag Flying might also score a spot.

Current predictions:
The Big Sick
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition: Taylor Sheridan (Hell or High Water), Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)

For your information: “Hell or High Water” is the only film in this category not nominated for Best Director, and the other four writers are double-nominated as directors. Only Lonergan has been nominated before, back in 2000 for “You Can Count on Me.” The only film not nominated for best motion picture is “Nocturnal Animals.” That’s not necessarily a dealbreaker since “Steve Jobs” won last year. A musical has not won this award since the 1950s.

Who should win? I really didn’t like “Nocturnal Animals” so that doesn’t get my vote. I think I’d give this award to “Hell or High Water” though there’s a great case to be made for all four of the other nominees.

Who will win? Last year bucked history with the first film in over thirty years to win without a corresponding best motion picture bid, but I don’t think that will happen this year. I think it will probably be Moonlight though it could really be any of them.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

My predictions: 2/5, picking only “Manchester by the Sea” and “Moonlight”
Who’s missing? Fences, Lion, Loving, Silence

I’m not sure why I thought La La Land wasn’t going to get in here, since it cleaned up here and in other races along with Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight. I’m not happy about the inclusion of Nocturnal Animals, which fortunately didn’t make the cut in the top race, but I couldn’t be more thrilled about Hell or High Water, which did.

Who will win? I’m really concerned that it’s going to be Nocturnal Animals.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced very soon, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
The Big Short
The Hateful Eight
Room
Spotlight
Steve Jobs

The Golden Globes consolidate screenwriting to just one race, grouping together both original and adapted screenplays. It’s usually made up of Best Motion Picture – Drama nominees and sometimes a truly odd choice like “The Ides of March,” “It’s Complicated,” or “Love Actually.” I think the surest things here are Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, and La La Land. Beyond that, Lion, Loving, Nocturnal Animals, and Fences have the best shot, and Silence may show itself to be a major awards season player with a mention here.

Current predictions:
Fences
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition: Charles Randolph and Adam McKay (The Big Short), Quentin Tarantino (The Hateful Eight), Emma Donoghue (Room), Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer (Spotlight), Aaron Sorkin (Steve Jobs)

For your information: Tarantino has been nominated six times before, three times for directing and three times for writing. He won for penning the screenplays for “Pulp Fiction” and “Django Unchained.” This is his first time being nominated in this category without a corresponding directing nod. This is the sixth nomination in this category for Sorkin, who won in 2010 for “The Social Network.” McCarthy is also nominated for directing his film. “The Big Short,” “Room,” and “Spotlight” are all nominated for Best Picture prizes. Only “Spotlight” is nominated for directing.

Who should win? The dialogue is definitely clever in “The Big Short” and “The Hateful Eight,” while “Room” and “Spotlight” are two of the best dramatic films of the year. My choice, however, is the brilliant and very Sorkin-like “Steve Jobs,” which lives and thrives on its writing.

Who will win? Last year, I noted that no film in the past thirty years had won this award without a corresponding Best Picture bid, and so I’d say that discounts “The Hateful Eight” and “Steve Jobs,” which are the two competitors likeliest to take down Spotlight or “The Big Short.”

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

My predictions: 4/5, picking “The Martian” over “The Big Short”
What’s missing? Carol, The Martian, The Revenant, Joy, Mad Max: Fury Road

This list isn’t too surprising, with comedy The Big Short, which I’m hoping to see tomorrow, taking a spot I thought would go to “The Martian,” which still had a good showing today. Room fared better than some (including me expected), earning a Best Motion Picture – Drama mention. Steve Jobs unfortunately did not, but I’m glad that it’s still here, giving Aaron Sorkin his sixth nomination. The Hateful Eight didn’t make the cut in the top race either but is here, setting Quentin Tarantino up for a possible third career Globe. Spotlight, which didn’t score as resoundingly as I and others expected, rounds out the race. I’ve only seen three of these, but the three I have are all excellently written.

What will win? Even though it’s not nominated in the top field, I’ll pick Steve Jobs right now.