Final Golden Globe Winner Predictions

The Golden Globes are tonight, and they have the potential to be really exciting. This is the first time since I’ve been watching that there’s no distinct frontrunner for Best Motion Picture – Drama, and not even two films up against each other that might take it. While I don’t think it will be the film that I’ve been predicting all along to win the Oscar for Best Picture – “Call Me By Your Name” – any of the other four could feasibly win. My choice would be “The Shape of Water,” which is one of my top films of the year, but I still think “The Post” is likelier. On the comedy side, “Lady Bird” is ahead but it could easily be “Get Out” or “The Disaster Artist,” or even “I, Tonya” or “The Greatest Showman.”

I did manage to catch up on the movies I needed to see in time for the show. I skipped “The Leisure Seeker” since Helen Mirren has 0% chance of winning – that seems like an eventual DVD or streaming experience a few years down the road. I’m missing four of the foreign films and three of the animated ones, but I’ll have to get to those closer to Oscar night. I don’t think Judi Dench is going to win for “Victoria and Abdul,” though she is given solid material and makes the most of it (I’m not her biggest fan, but I can admit that), and she’s a more seasoned actress compared to frontrunner Saiorse Ronan and her top competition Margot Robbie, and could win if votes are split between them. I saw the last three in a triple feature, and I’ll comment in the order I saw them. While Jessica Chastain is very good in “Molly’s Game,” I’d be very surprised if she won, and the same goes for Aaron Sorkin, whose script wasn’t as focused or strong as the films that he’s won for in the past. Hong Chau was easily the liveliest and most entertaining part of “Downsizing,” and I wouldn’t mind seeing her win at all though I think she’s in an extremely competitive field. It would be cool since she’s so unknown, and I think that she excels as the one who steals the film, unlike the other actresses in this category who, while good, have other noteworthy performances in their same films. And then there’s “Phantom Thread.” It’s certainly possible that Day-Lewis could win since his film is just as present as, and actually slight more than, “Darkest Hour,” but his performance isn’t nearly as showy as his previous wins, while Oldman’s is. And I didn’t care much for the music, though there’s a case to be made that it anchors the film in a big way (though the music of “Dunkirk” does more). Reviews of all four will be coming this week, but I don’t think any of them are significant threats.

I’d love to see “The Shape of Water” and “Lady Bird” clean up, while I’d be decidedly less excited about “The Post,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” and “Get Out.” But I’m sure we’ll have a few surprises! Check out my predictions below and leave your thoughts in the comments! Full analysis can be found by clicking on category headings. Head over to TVwithAbe.com for TV categories.

Best Motion Picture - Drama
The Post

Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Lady Bird

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Christopher Plummer ()

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Best Animated Feature Film
Coco

Best Foreign Language Film
The Square

Best Director - Motion Picture
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
Lady Bird

Best Original Score - Motion Picture
Dunkirk

Best Original Song - Motion Picture
“This Is Me” (The Greatest Showman)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The competition: The Disaster Artist, Get Out, The Greatest Showman, I, Tonya, Lady Bird

For your information: None of these films are nominated for Best Director, and only “Lady Bird” is recognized in the screenplay race. “I, Tonya” and “Lady Bird” have two performers nominated while the other three all have one each. Six musicals have won this award in the past fifteen years.

Who should win? I liked “Lady Bird” best of all these, but I’d be okay with “The Disaster Artist” winning too.

Who will win? Who knows? I’m willing to pick Lady Bird even though “Get Out” is a serious threat.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Drama

The competition: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

For your information: The screenplay for “Dunkirk” isn’t nominated, and the same goes for both the screenplay and the director from “Call Me By Your Name.” The nominations leader is “The Shape of Water,” which has three acting bids, while the other three – not “Dunkirk” – have two acting bids apiece. The winner of this category has only gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture five times in the past fifteen years.

Who should win? I’m a big fan of “The Shape of Water” and consider it to be far superior to the rest of these films.

Who will win? I think The Post will be the choice, though “Dunkirk” might win too.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

The competition: Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World), Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), Steven Spielberg (The Post), Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water), Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

For your information: Spielberg holds the record for most nominations in this category, earning his twelfth mention this year. He won twice, for “Schindler’s List” and “Saving Private Ryan.” Scott has been nominated four times, most recently for “The Martian” in 2015. His film is the only one not nominated for a best picture prize. This is Nolan’s second nod, following “Inception” in 2010. Del Toro and McDonagh are both first-time nominees, and they’re also recognized this year in the screenplay race.

Who should win? Nolan’s work was focused and powerful, but Del Toro is far ahead of the rest as my choice.

Who will win? I don’t actually think there’s a frontrunner here. My best guess is Nolan even though his film is least represented in Globe categories.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition: Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Aaron Sorkin (Molly’s Game), Liz Hannah and Josh Singer (The Post), Guillermo Del Toro and Vanessa Taylor (The Shape of Water), Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

For your information: Sorkin has been nominated six times, winning for “The Social Network” and “Steve Jobs.” This year, his film is the only one not nominated for a best picture prize. Singer was nominated two years ago for a similar project, “Spotlight.” Gerwig has been nominated before for acting work. Del Toro and McDonagh are also nominated as their film’s directors this year.

Who should win? I haven’t seen Sorkin’s film yet. I liked the writing in “Lady Bird” and “The Shape of Water” best.

Who will win? I think that Gerwig could triumph here for Lady Bird, though any of the others could too.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Original Song

The competition: “Remember Me” by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez (Coco), “Home” by Nick Jonas, Nick Monson, and Justin Tranter (Ferdinand), “This Is Me” by Pasek and Paul (The Greatest Showman), “Mighty River” by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq, and Taura Stinson (Mudbound), and “The Star” by Mariah Carey and Marc Shaiman (The Star)

For your information: Pasek and Paul were last year’s winners for “La La Land.” The Lopez duo was nominated for “Frozen” in 2013 but didn’t win. Blige, who is also nominated for her acting performance this year, was previously up for penning a song from “Bobby” in 2006.

Who should win? I remember both songs from the two films I’ve seen – “The Greatest Showman” and “Mudbound” – were both memorable and impactful. I didn’t have a chance to listen to all these just yet, unfortunately, but plan to soon.

Who will win? I’ll go with a repeat win for the duo behind The Greatest Showman.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Original Score

The competition: Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer), Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood), The Post (John Williams), The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat), Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Carter Burwell)

For your information: Williams has twenty-four nominations and four wins, the most recent of which came in 2005 for “Memoirs of a Geisha.” Zimmer has thirteen nominations and two wins, for “The Lion King” and “Gladiator.” Desplat has nine nominations, and Burwell has three. This is Greenwood’s first nomination.

Who should win? I haven’t listened closely enough to these – and I have yet to see “Phantom Thread” – but I remember the music from “Dunkirk” and “The Shape of Water” best from the ones I have seen.

Who will win? I think Zimmer will take it for Dunkirk, but it could easily be any of these.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Animated Film

The competition: The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, Coco, Ferdinand, Loving Vincent

For your information: This category has existed since 2006. Disney, responsible for “Coco” this year, has triumphed nine times. 20th Century Fox, responsible for “The Boss Baby” and “Ferdinand,” triumphed once. StudioCanal, one of the producers of “The Breadwinner,” Was nominated once before.

Who should win? I’ve only seen adult entries “The Breadwinner” and “Loving Vincent” but they were both very good.

Who will win? From what I’ve heard, Coco is the one to beat.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Foreign Language Film

The competition: A Fantastic Woman (Chile), First They Killed My Father (Cambodia), In the Fade (Germany/France), Loveless (Russia), The Square (Sweden/Germany/France)

For your information: It’s hard to track statistics because multiple countries are often credited, but here goes. This is the third consecutive film nominated from Chile and the fourth overall. This is the seventh overall bid for Russia, which won with “Leviathan” in 2014. That film was also directed by Andrey Zvyagintsev, as was 2003’s “The Return.” Though multiple countries are credited for this year’s pick, its main sponsor, Sweden is now at sixteen nominations with at least four trophies awarded in previous years. “The Square” director Ruben Ostlund was previously nominated for “Force Majeure” in 2014. Germany also has four modern day wins and twenty-eight total nominations. This is the first mention for Cambodia, though director Angelina Jolie did have a film that was nominated in 2011.

Who should win? At this time, I’ve only seen “The Square,” which I didn’t love, but I hope to see the others soon.

Who will win? Knowing little, I’d give the edge to The Square.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

The competition: Mary J. Blige’s devoted matriarch (Mudbound), Hong Chau’s shrunken activist (Downsizing), Allison Janney’s cruel mother (I, Tonya), Laurie Metcalf’s concerned mother (Lady Bird), and Octavia Spencer’s sarcastic janitor (The Shape of Water).

For your information: Spencer won this award in 2011 for “The Help” and was nominated again last year for “Hidden Figures.” Janney has five previous TV nods, and Metcalf has two. Blige is also nominated for a song from her film this year, and has one previous song nomination. This is Chau’s first nomination. Janney, Metcalf, and Spencer all have their films nominated for the top prize.

Who should win? I haven’t seen Chau’s performance yet. Janney, Metcalf, and Spencer were all superb, so I’d be happy with any of them.

Who will win? While I’m sure both Blige and Janney will garner plenty of votes, I think that Metcalf is the frontrunner.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

The competition: Willem Dafoe’s motel manager (The Florida Project), Armie Hammer’s flirtatious student (Call Me By Your Name), Richard Jenkins’ loyal neighbor (The Shape of Water), Christopher Plummer’s self-serving billionaire (All the Money in the World), and Sam Rockwell’s dim-witted cop (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri).

For your information: Plummer won this award in 2011 for “Beginners” and has two other previous nominations. Dafoe was nominated in this category once before for “Shadow of the Vampire.” This is the first nomination for the other three. Hammer, Jenkins, and Rockwell have their films nominated for the top prize.

Who should win? These are all good choices. While I loved Dafoe’s film best, I think I’d choose Jenkins for this particular award, though I’d be fine with any of them winning.

Who will win? The frontrunner throughout this whole awards season has been Dafoe, and while I still believe he’ll win the Oscar (the past two winners of this award has not gone on to win the Oscar the last two years), I think that Plummer will eclipse him here thanks to his quick work in replacing Kevin Spacey and his impressive work at age eighty-seven.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The competition: Judi Dench’s Queen Victoria (Victoria and Abdul), Helen Mirren’s road-tripping senior citizen (The Leisure Seeker), Margot Robbie’s champion skater (I, Tonya), Saoirse Ronan’s precocious teenager (Lady Bird), and Emma Stone’s tennis pro (Battle of the Sexes).

For your information: Stone won this award last year for “La La Land” and has two previous nominations. Mirren has fourteen previous nominations and three wins, one of which was for film. Dench has eleven previous nominations and two wins, one of which was for film, for “Mrs. Brown,” in which she plays the same character she’s nominated for portraying this year. Ronan has been nominated twice before, and this is Robbie’s first bid. Only Robbie and Ronan’s films are up for the top prize

Who should win? I haven’t yet seen Dench’s film (I hope to watch it this week), and I don’t plan on watching Mirren’s. The other three are all terrific, and I think I’d choose Ronan though I wish Stone was really in this since she was great too.

Who will win? It’s a very competitive category – I’ll pick Ronan over Robbie.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The competition: Steve Carell’s chauvinistic tennis player (Battle of the Sexes), Ansel Elgort’s smooth getaway driver (Baby Driver), James Franco’s eccentric filmmaker (The Disaster Artist), Hugh Jackman’s circus creator (The Greatest Showman), and Daniel Kaluuya’s freaked-out boyfriend (Get Out).

For your information: Jackman won this award in 2012 for “Les Miserables” and was nominated previously for “Kate and Leopold.” Franco has two past film nominations and a win for the TV movie “James Dean.” Carell has two previous film nominations and five bids for “The Office,” one of which he won. This is the first nomination for both Elgort and Kaluuya. Franco, Jackman, and Kaluuya have their films nominated for the top prize.

Who should win? I’d give this to Franco though Carell and Kaluuya were very good too.

Who will win? I’m going to predict Franco though it could just as easily be Kaluuya.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition: Jessica Chastain’s poker boss (Molly’s Game), Sally Hawkins’ kindly janitor (The Shape of Water), Frances McDormand’s prickly protestor (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Meryl Streep’s magazine publisher (The Post), and Michelle Williams’ determined mother (All the Money in the World).

For your information: Streep is obviously the most-nominated in this category, winning the Cecil B. DeMille Award last year and eight trophies out of thirty previous bids. Chastain has won once out of four nominations in the past six years, and Williams and Hawkins have each won once out of four and two previous tries, respectively. Oscar winner McDormand has five previous nods but is the only actress in this category not to have yet won a Globe. Hawkins, McDormand, and Streep have their films nominated for the top prize.

Who should win? I still have to see Chastain, but at the moment I’d vote for Hawkins with McDormand as a close runner-up.

Who will win? I think that it’s McDormand’s turn to win, especially given her film’s popularity.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition: Timothee Chalamet’s vacationing teenager (Call Me By Your Name), Daniel Day-Lewis’ dressmaker (Phantom Thread), Tom Hanks’ bold editor (The Post), Gary Oldman’s Winston Churchill (Darkest Hour), and Denzel Washington’s ethical lawyer (Roman J. Israel, Esq.).

For your information: This is the ninth career nomination for Hanks, who has won four trophies, three of which were for this category. This is also the ninth nomination for Washington, a nominee last year who has won twice and received the Cecil B. DeMille Award two years ago. This is the eighth nomination for Day-Lewis, who has two previous wins. Despite earning an Oscar nomination in 2011, this is Oldman’s first nomination here, as well as Chalamet’s. Only Chalamet and Hanks have their films nominated for the top prize.

Who should win? I have yet to see Day-Lewis’ performance but for now would vote firmly for Oldman.

Who will win? Even though his film isn’t nominated in any other category, I think that Oldman will still blow the competition out of the water.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical

My predictions: 3/5, picking “Battle of the Sexes” and “The Big Sick” over “The Disaster Artist” and “I, Tonya”
Who’s missing? The Big Sick, Battle of the Sexes, Baby Driver, Downsizing

It’s really sad and just so puzzling to see “The Big Sick” shut out of all categories, and I’m also surprised that “Battle of the Sexes” didn’t make the cut. I did just see the two films I didn’t predict - The Disaster Artist and I, Tonya - this past weekend, and I’m fine with both being included even though they wouldn’t make my list. Get Out only scored here and for best actor, which is fine by me since I think the enthusiasm for that film was way too high. I just saw The Greatest Showman yesterday, and I know that my wife will be thrilled that it made the cut. Lady Bird is definitely the best film here, and its four nominations should indicate that. This is an interesting list - certainly some entertaining films!

Who will win? That’s a good question. I’m tempted to select Lady Bird but it could honestly be any of them.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Motion Picture - Drama

My predictions: 4/5, picking “Darkest Hour” over “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Who’s missing? Darkest Hour, The Florida Project, Mudbound, Phantom Thread

The results of this category don’t mean much other than to confirm that Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is indeed a strong awards contender, whereas “Darkest Hour,” which was the type of film Globe voters like, may not make much of a splash aside from its lead star. Call Me By Your Name is, someone unexpectedly, the only film on this list that didn’t earn a Best Director bid, and Dunkirk is the only other one with no screenplay mention. The Shape of Water scored the most bids and The Post also did well. The latter is the only best picture nominee in comedy or drama that I haven’t seen - hoping to see it soon so I can comment.

Who will win? I think either The Post or “The Shape of Water.”

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Director - Motion Picture

My predictions: 3/5, picking Guadagnino and Gerwig over McDonagh and Scott
Who’s missing? Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Jordan Peele (Get Out)

And here we have it - the biggest shock of the nominations. Ridley Scott (All the Money in the Word), nominated along with two of his actors for a film that was just recently reshot and has barely been seen by anyone, including me. I’m intrigued and now I’ll have to see it! Jordan Peele didn’t get in, as many expected, but neither did Greta Gerwig, which is a shame. Luca Guadagnino missing out is not great news for his film since that was an unexpected stumbling block, leaving it with just three nominations. I’d be much more excited for Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) if I have loved his film, which managed six nominations, tying the count for “The Post,” whose director, Steven Spielberg, earned a record twelfth bid this morning. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) is here, and his film made about its expected impact given the lack of technical categories. The helmer of the nominations leader, Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water), is my happiest inclusion.

Who will win? I’d say that Del Toro wins over Nolan.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Screenplay - Motion Picture

My predictions: 2/5, picking only “Lady Bird” and “The Shape of Water”
What’s missing? Call Me By Your Name, Get Out, The Big Sick, Darkest Hour

Changing my predictions here was a bad idea, since two of my original guesses, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Post did end up picking up nominations. I should have guessed that Molly’s Game would be here, joined by the well-received Lady Bird and nominations leader The Shape of Water. The absence of both “Call Me By Your Name” and “Get Out” is notable but hardly damning, although neither film performed as well as its adherents had hoped and expected. I still have to see two of these, so more thoughts in my winner predictions.

Who will win? I think that Sorkin wins again for Molly’s Game.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Foreign Film

My predictions: 3/5, picking “BPM” and “Thelma” over “A Fantastic Woman” and “Loveless”
Who’s missing? “BPM” (France), “Thelma” (Norway), others

I don’t have much to comment on here since the two films I didn’t predict - A Fantastic Woman (Chile) and Loveless (Russia) - were both on my radar. There’s no big shock here, since the other three, First They Killed My Father (Cambodia), In the Fade (Germany/France), and The Square (Sweden/Germany/France), all have big names of sorts attached to them, and all five films here are Oscar-eligible for what I have to assume is the first time in a long time if not ever. Statistics coming later, along with analysis once I’ve seen more than one of these films.

Who will win? I’ll pick the one I’ve seen, The Square.