Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)

This category boasts two very surprising omissions given that “The Fabelmans” did do very well overall, while “Women Talking” was very unfortunately snubbed in all the major races. Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) showed up for a performance that I don’t think needs to be here, while Brad Pitt (Babylon) merited a nomination that likely won’t translate to Oscar attention. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) managed to join his expected costar Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), providing some in-film competition that may benefit the final nominee in this race, Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once).

Who will win? I think Quan will be able to beat Gleeson.

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar)
Jamie Dornan (Belfast)
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

I feel most confident in my choices for this category, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to be right. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) and Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) are the safest bets, and Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) and Ben Whishaw (Women Talking) seem likely to join them. I think Brad Pitt (Babylon) will land the fifth slot, even if it’s not a performance that will necessarily translate to Oscar love. Two of my predicted nominees have costars who could join them – Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) – and, if their films go over well, Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness), Mark Rylance (Bones and All), and Tom Hanks (Elvis) could benefit, and a few performers could show up even without their films: Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Harry Styles (My Policeman), and Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse).

Current predictions:
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brad Pitt (Babylon)
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition:
Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) plays bar owner Charlie Moehringer. Affleck has three previous Globe nominations, all for different trades. His lone acting nomination was in 2006 for “Hollywoodland.” He won for directing “Argo” in 2012 and for writing “Good Will Hunting” in 1997. He is the lone representative of his film.

Jamie Dornan (Belfast) plays absent father Pa. This is his first Globe nomination. His film is tied as the nominations leader.

Ciarán Hinds (Belfast) plays loving grandfather Pop. This is his first Globe nomination. His film is tied as the nominations leader.

Troy Kotsur (CODA) plays fisherman Frank Rossi. This is his first Globe nomination. His film is also up for Best Motion Picture – Drama.

Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) plays impressionable student Peter Gordon. This is his first Globe nomination. His film is tied as the nominations leader.

Additional notes: Everyone except Affleck was cited by the Critics Choice Association in their nominations list. Only once in the past forty years has the winner of this category gone on not to be nominated for an Oscar (Aaron Taylor-Johnson in 2016), and the victor here also claimed the Oscar all but three times in the past fifteen years.
Who should win? I like this list. Dornan and Affleck both impressed me but I’d vote for Kotsur ahead of everyone.
Who will win? Critics’ groups indicate that Smit-McPhee is ahead, but I’m going to bet on Kotsur.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition:

Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) plays defendant Abbie Hoffman. Cohen won a Globe in 2006 for the first “Borat” movie and is also nominated this year for his performance in the sequel, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.” Both films are nominated for in other categories and for the top prizes. This is third year in a row that Cohen has been a Globe nominee after TV bids for “Who Is America?” and “The Spy.”

Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) plays activist Fred Hampton. Kaluuya was previously nominated in 2017 for “Get Out.” His film also contends for Best Original Song.

Jared Leto (The Little Things) plays murder suspect Albert Sparma. He won this prize in 2013 for “Dallas Buyers Club.” He is the lone representative from his film.

Bill Murray (On the Rocks) plays eccentric father Felix Keene. He has six previous nominations, most recently earning two bids in 2014 and winning in 2003 for “Lost in Translation.” He is the lone representative from his film.

Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) plays singer Sam Cooke. This is his first Globe nomination, and he also contends for a song from his film, which earned a third bid for Best Director. Odom also stars in two nominees for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical this year, “Hamilton” and “Music.”

Additional notes: All but Murray are nominated for individual SAG Awards, and all but Leto are up for Critics Choice Awards. Only once in the past forty years has the winner of this category gone on not to be nominated for an Oscar (Aaron Taylor-Johnson in 2016), and the victor here also claimed the Oscar all but four times in the past fifteen years.
Who should win? I’m not sure why Leto is here but the rest are all great choices.
Who will win? I really don’t know. It could be any of them except Murray, and I think Leto may actually take it, baffling as that might be to believe.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods)

This category gives us one of the true startling nominations of the day: Jared Leto (The Little Things). Nathaniel over at The Film Experience already compared his inclusion to that of Aaron Taylor-Johnson for “Nocturnal Animals” a few years ago, and it’s definitely not one that’s necessary. Raci, who has been racking up critics’ awards, was left off, whereas the other four are pretty expected. Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) managed to be distinguished even with multiple costars also in contention from their films, though only Cohen ended up as a double nominee even though Odom’s “Hamilton” scored in the top category too. Bill Murray (On the Rocks) is here without his film being nominated in any other race, and Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) made the cut along with a song from his film.

Who will win? I’m tempted to predict Leto, but I think this could be Kaluuya.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced shortly, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that, especially this year, it’s hard to know which films and performances will end up being honored.

Last year’s nominees:
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

This category may be awfully crowded since all four stars of Regina King’s directorial debut have been placed here: Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami), Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami), Eli Goree (One Night in Miami), and Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami). The same goes for another ensemble piece, with Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) likeliest out of his cast, which also includes Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Eddie Redmayne (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7), and Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7). The most popular critics’ pick has been Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), and Bill Murray (On the Rocks) should be a likely choice. Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) and David Strathairn (Nomadland) are possibilities, as are Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman), Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods), Orion Lee (First Cow) and Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah).

Current predictions:
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Bill Murray (On the Rocks)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition:
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) plays children’s television icon Mr. Rogers. Hanks has nine previous nominations, most recently in 2017 for “The Post,” winning for “Big,” “Philadelphia,” “Forrest Gump,” and “Cast Away.” He is the lone representative from his film.

Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes) plays Pope Benedict XVI. Hopkins won the Cecil B. DeMille Award in 2006. He has six previous nominations, most recently in 1997 for “Amistad.” His film is nominated for several awards, including Best Motion Picture – Drama.

Al Pacino (The Irishman) plays Teamster leader Jimmy Hoffa. Pacino won the Cecil B. DeMille Award in 2001. He has fourteen previous film nominations, winning for “Serpico” and “Scent of a Woman,” and three TV bids, winning for “Angels in America” and “You Don’t Know Jack.” His most recent nomination was in 2015 for “Danny Collins.” His film is nominated for several awards, including Best Motion Picture – Drama.

Joe Pesci (The Irishman) plays mob boss Russell Bufalino. He has been nominated twice before, both for Martin Scorsese collaborations, in 1980 for “Raging Bull” and in 1990 for “Goodfellas.” His film is nominated for several awards, including Best Motion Picture – Drama.

Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) plays stuntman Cliff Booth. He won a Globe in 1995 for “12 Monkeys” and was also nominated for “Legends of the Fall,” “Babel,” “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” and “Moneyball.” His film is nominated for several awards, including Best Motion Picture – Drama.

Additional notes: All but Hopkins are nominated for individual SAG Awards, and Pacino, Pesci, and Pitt also contend as part of his ensemble. Only once in the past forty years has the winner of this category gone on not to be nominated for an Oscar (Aaron Taylor-Johnson in 2016), and the victor here also claimed the Oscar all but four times in the past fifteen years. The last three times two men were nominated from the same film, neither won, but Timothy Hutton did eclipse costar Judd Hirsch in 1980 for “Ordinary People.”
Who should win? I can understand that Pitt was natural in his film, but I don’t think he needs to win. Hopkins wasn’t as terrific as his costar Jonathan Pryce. Hanks was great and would be a fine choice. Pacino grew on me, but he didn’t wow me the same way that Pesci did.
Who will win? I’m not sure. I think that Pitt could win, but I’m backing Pacino.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 4/5, missing Hopkins
Who’s missing? Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit), Sam Rockwell (Richard Jewell)

Last year, I didn’t predict Sam Rockwell showing up, and this year I did, which didn’t work out so well while his costar Kathy Bates ended up getting nominated instead. There actually wasn’t a surprise in this category, with Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes) getting the fifth slot I couldn’t decide on, just part of a very strong showing for his film. Both Al Pacino (The Irishman) and Joe Pesci (The Irishman) got in, as did Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), representing two of the nominations leaders. Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) managed to secure a spot as the lone representative of his film. As I had read might be possible, this category features Oscar nominees from the 1990s, all of whom didn’t phone in these performances and still taking on challenging roles.

Who will win? I’m honestly not sure. I’ll go with Pitt for now.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced shortly, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Four out of five of these nominees seem pretty likely, even if they’re not going to make it all the way to Oscar. Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) and Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) should be safe. Joe Pesci (The Irishman) and Al Pacino (The Irishman) will likely both get in. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) could earn his third consecutive Globe bid, and Sterling K. Brown (Waves) might score his first film accolade to go along with his past TV trophy. Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari) feels like a possible dark horse, and maybe this is where Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit) scores for his performance. Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes) is probably the safe choice.

Current predictions:
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

The competition:
Mahershala Ali (Green Book) plays renowned musician Don Shirley. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. He was previously nominated in this category in 2016 for “Moonlight,” a role that won him the Oscar.

Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) plays troubled addict Nic Sheff. He is the lone nominee from his film. He was nominated last year for his performance in “Call Me By Your Name.”

Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) plays Colorado Springs Detective Flip Zimmerman. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama. The three-time Emmy nominee for “Girls” earns his first Globe nomination for this role.

Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) plays author Jack Hock. His costar Melissa McCarthy is also nominated. This is his first Globe nomination.

Sam Rockwell (Vice) plays former President George Bush. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. He won this award last year for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

Additional notes: All but Rockwell are nominated for individual SAG Awards, and Driver also contends as part of his ensemble. Only once in the past forty years has the winner of this category gone on not to be nominated for an Oscar (Aaron Taylor-Johnson in 2016), and the victor here also claimed the Oscar all but four times in the past fifteen years.
Who should win? Chalamet didn’t impress me as much as he did in last year’s big film, and Driver wasn’t the standout of his film by any measure. Rockwell was funny but had an extremely limited role, which both Grant and Ali, my pick, totally dominate their films alongside their top-billed costars.
Who will win? This isn’t sewn up, but it will either be Grant or Ali, in part to make up for him not winning this award on his road to Oscar two years ago.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 4/5, missing Rockwell
Who’s missing? Sam Elliott (A Star is Born), Russell Crowe (Boy Erased), Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)

I’m genuinely surprised to see Sam Rockwell (Vice) included after seeing the film yesterday and finding his role to be very minor. I guess it’s hard not to honor last year’s winner, though he did get in at the expense of Elliott, whose film scored everywhere else it was expected to. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) wasn’t the only element of his film to get in, even though it was looking that way. Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) joins his costar Melissa McCarthy, while Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) got in all on his own. And then there’s Mahershala Ali (Green Book), whose film did very well overall.

Who will win? I feel like Ali is far enough ahead here.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)

There are a few names that have emerged as the leading contenders here: Sam Elliott (A Star is Born), Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), and Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy). This is usually the place where first signs of trouble for an expected frontrunner emerge, so we’ll see if they all make the cut. Last year’s winner Sam Rockwell (Vice) could show up here if voters like the film. It’s hard to know how other men here might fare since their films will either embraced or dismissed. Russell Crowe (Boy Erased), J.K. Simmons (The Front Runner), and Dick Van Dyke (Mary Poppins Returns) all feel like possibilities despite how extraordinarily different their roles are. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) and Daniel Kaluuya (Widows) are probably more likely.

Current predictions:
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

The competition: Willem Dafoe’s motel manager (The Florida Project), Armie Hammer’s flirtatious student (Call Me By Your Name), Richard Jenkins’ loyal neighbor (The Shape of Water), Christopher Plummer’s self-serving billionaire (All the Money in the World), and Sam Rockwell’s dim-witted cop (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri).

For your information: Plummer won this award in 2011 for “Beginners” and has two other previous nominations. Dafoe was nominated in this category once before for “Shadow of the Vampire.” This is the first nomination for the other three. Hammer, Jenkins, and Rockwell have their films nominated for the top prize.

Who should win? These are all good choices. While I loved Dafoe’s film best, I think I’d choose Jenkins for this particular award, though I’d be fine with any of them winning.

Who will win? The frontrunner throughout this whole awards season has been Dafoe, and while I still believe he’ll win the Oscar (the past two winners of this award has not gone on to win the Oscar the last two years), I think that Plummer will eclipse him here thanks to his quick work in replacing Kevin Spacey and his impressive work at age eighty-seven.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 4/5, picking Shannon over Plummer
Who’s missing? Michael Stuhlbarg, Michael Shannon, Idris Elba, Mark Rylance

No one could possibly have predicted Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World) would be here a month ago since he wasn’t even supposed to be in his movie! No one expected that film to land big after Kevin Spacey was fired from it, so this and its two other major nominations are quite crazy. I’ll have to see the film now. I was correct to predict Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name) over costar Michael Stuhlbarg, who didn’t make the cut. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) is here, and I shouldn’t be too worried about costar Michael Shannon’s omission since he’s never needed Golden Globe nominations to score Oscar bids and last year even got one over his Globe-winning costar, who was snubbed by Oscar voters. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) is a solid choice for his film, though I was hoping maybe Woody Harrelson would show up. It’s a shame that Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) is the only representative of the best film I’ve seen so far this year, but I have faith that it will rebound come Oscar time.

Who will win? It will probably be Dafoe but watch out for that Plummer.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)

The surest bet in this race is Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project). I’m still perplexed that Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name) is being predicted by many instead of costar Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name). Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) will probably join them, and Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) or Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water) could too. Idris Elba (Molly’s Game), Jason Mitchell (Mudbound), Ray Romano (The Big Sick), Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour), and Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) could also break into this category.

Current predictions:
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

The competition: Mahershala Ali’s father figure (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges’ dogged detective (Hell or High Water), Simon Helberg’s eccentric pianist (Florence Foster Jenkins), Dev Patel’s transplanted student (Lion), and Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s sociopathic criminal (Nocturnal Animals).

For your information: This is Bridges’ fifth nomination. He won in 2009 for “Crazy Heart.” Despite Emmy, SAG, and Critics Choice nominations, respectively, in the past, this is the first Globe mention for Ali, Patel, and Helberg. Taylor-Johnson is also a first-time Globe nominee. All but “Nocturnal Animals” are nominated for the corresponding best motion picture prize.

Who should win? I can’t understand why Helberg and Taylor-Johnson are here, so they definitely don’t get my vote. Bridges was good but hardly the best actor in his excellent film. Between Ali and Patel, I don’t have a huge preference – they were both great.

Who will win? For the moment, it seems like Ali is ahead in this race.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 3/5, picking Hedges and Neeson over Helberg and Taylor-Johnson
Who’s missing? Lucas Hedges, Michael Shannon, Liam Neeson

I groaned when I heard one of the nominees in this category announced, and that was Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins), who I found to be a terrible part of an entertaining film, and I can’t understand how he showed up here. I’m also not thrilled about the inclusion of Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals), a creepy and not too satisfying part of a movie I really didn’t like (review coming next week). Shannon would have been a better choice from the same film. The rest of the category is great, with Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), and Dev Patel (Lion) all superb choices. I expect that Neeson may prove an Oscar threat even if his film got shut out today, and I really hope Hedges will be too since he was so great and his film did well in all other categories.

Who will win? I really don’t know. Maybe Ali?

Golden Globe Musings: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced very soon, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Paul Dano (Love and Mercy)
Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Michael Shannon (99 Homes)
Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

Last year, I was pretty floored when I got only 2/5 right in this category, and then two of these nominees didn’t make it to Oscar, with an additional inclusion from SAG not making the cut with two brand-new names on the list instead. At this point, it seems like there are some serious frontrunners this year. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Dev Patel (Lion) seem like the surest things. Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea) and Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) are doing well with precursors (and both really deserve to be here), but they’re hardly guaranteed, and Ben Foster (Hell or High Water) must show up too. Duking it out for the last spot are Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) and Liam Neeson (Silence), though it’s hard to know if the latter’s film will land well since it hasn’t been widely seen yet.

Current predictions:
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Liam Neeson (Silence)
Dev Patel (Lion)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

The competition: Paul Dano’s brilliant musician (Love and Mercy), Idris Elba’s fearless commander (Beasts of No Nation), Mark Rylance’s quiet spy (Bridge of Spies), Michael Shannon’s fearsome real estate developer (99 Homes), and Sylvester Stallone’s aging boxer (Creed).

For your information: Elba has been nominated four times in the past, winning once for “Luther.” Both he and Rylance, who is a first-time nominee this year, are also nominated for their TV miniseries work. Stallone was nominated in 1976 for acting in and writing “Rocky.” This is the first nomination for Dano and Shannon. Interestingly, none of these films are nominated for a Best Picture award.

Who should win? Shannon is far and away my choice, though I would not have classified him as supporting or ever expected him to get nominated.

Who will win? It’s not clear at this point, but Rylance seems to be the one who is being most widely praised, so I expect him to win unless Elba manages to or Stallone gets a nostalgia trophy.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 2/5, picking only Elba and Rylance
Who’s missing? Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Jacob Tremblay, Benicio Del Toro

So this list only ports over three nominees from yesterday’s SAG slate, but still manages to leave off Keaton and Ruffalo, a very puzzling omission given how much it seems that the film was loved, earning three top nominations today. SAG nominee Christian Bale got moved to the lead race, making room for Paul Dano (Love and Mercy), making it clear that I have to see that film as soon as I can. And I really didn’t want to have to see Sylvester Stallone (Creed) in his film, and even passed up the opportunity to do so earlier this week in the hopes that he wouldn’t be nominated. I’m ecstatic that Michael Shannon (99 Homes) is here, and even though he wasn’t really supporting, it’s hardly a big deal since he was so good. Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) and Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), who are also both nominated for their TV work in the same category, are the sole representatives of their films.

Who will win? I’m not sure there is a frontrunner, but I’ll say Dano for now.