Golden Globe Nominees: Best Director – Motion Picture

My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Sarah Polley (Women Talking), S.S.Rajamouli (RRR)

This is probably the biggest snub of the day and one that’s inexplicable: Polley, who made one of the best films of the year and would have been the only woman nominated in this category had she been included. I recognize that Rajamouli was a major longshot, but I didn’t see Baz Luhrmann (Elvis) coming, though I guess it does make sense. James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) did win this prize back in 2009 for the first film, so I hope to appreciate his second effort when I go see it tonight. The other three were all expected and their films are the nominations leaders: Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), and, most excitingly, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once).

Who will win? Without Polley in the race, it’s either Cameron or Spielberg.

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

This is a category that mostly draws from Best Motion Picture - Drama nominees and a well-received Comedy/Musical honoree or two. The last two years have featured at least two female nominees, and that may or may not be repeated this year. Sarah Polley (Women Talking) is a sure thing, while Maria Schrader (She Said) and Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King) are true longshots. Likeliest to join Polley are Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Other possibilities include Todd Field (Tár), Damien Chazelle (Babylon), James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Darren Aronofsky (The Whale), Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness), Sam Mendes (Empire of Light), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), and Noah Baumbach (White Noise). I suspect that the final slot will go to an international director who just won the New York Film Critics Circle prize: S.S. Rajamouli (RRR).

Current predictions:
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
S.S. Rajamouli (RRR)
Sarah Polley (Women Talking)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

The competition:
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) directs his seventeenth film. He has four previous nominations for acting, most recently in 2011 for “My Week with Marilyn.” He is also nominated for writing his film, which is tied as the nominations leader.

Denis Villeneuve (Dune) directs his tenth film. This is his first Globe nomination. His film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and its score.

Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter) makes her directorial debut. She has four previous nominations for acting, winning in 2014 for “The Honourable Woman.” Her film also contends for its performance from star Olivia Colman.

Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) directs her eighth film, which also earned her a nomination for writing. She was previously nominated in both categories in 1993 for “The Piano.” Her film is tied as the nominations leader.

Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) directs his thirty-third film. He has an impressive twelve previous nominations in this category and one for screenwriting, plus he received the Cecil B. DeMille Award in 2007. He won twice, in 1993 for “Schindler’s List” and in 1998 for “Saving Private Ryan.” His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and its stars Rachel Zegler and Ariana DeBose.

Additional notes: The winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar eight times out of the past fifteen years, with only Ben Affleck missing out on a nomination altogether. In all but two cases, the winner of this race has also won the corresponding top prize (drama, comedy, or foreign). Two women have won this award in the past – Barbra Streisand in 1983 for “Yentl” and Chloe Zhao last year for “Nomadland.” Only “The Lost Daughter” is not nominated for a best picture award.
Who should win? These are all strong choices. I think my pick would be Branagh or Villeneuve.
Who will win? It could be Spielberg, but I think Campion wins.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

The competition:

David Fincher (Mank) directs his eleventh film, which earned him his fourth nomination. He won this prize in 2010 for “The Social Network” and was also nominated in 2008 for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and in 2014 for “Gone Girl.” His film is the nominations leader, contending for Best Motion Picture – Drama, its screenplay, its score, and stars Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried.

Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) directs her third film, which earned her two nominations, as she also contends for its screenplay. Her film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama, its screenplay, and for star Frances McDormand’s performance.

Regina King (One Night in Miami) directs her first film. She has three previous nominations, for “American Crime” in 2016, “Seven Seconds” in 2018, and “If Beale Street Could Talk,” which won her the supporting actress trophy in 2018. Her film also contends for its performance from star Leslie Odom Jr. and its end credits song.

Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) directs her first film, which earned her two nominations, as she also contends for its screenplay. Her film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama, its screenplay, and for star Carey Mulligan’s performance.

Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) directs his second film, which earned him two nominations, as he also contends for its screenplay . He has an impressive seven previous nominations, all in the screenplay category, most recently in 2017 for “Molly’s Game.” He won in 2015 for “Steve Jobs” and in 2010 for “The Social Network.” The film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama, a song, and star Sacha Baron Cohen’s performance.

Additional notes: The winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar eight times out of the past fifteen years, with only Ben Affleck missing out on a nomination altogether. In all but two cases, the winner of this race has also won the corresponding top prize (drama, comedy, or foreign). This is the first time that more than one female director has been nominated in the same year. The last and only woman to win this prize was Barbra Streisand for “Yentl” in 1983. Only “One Night in Miami” is not nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama.

Who should win? This is an extremely strong list. I can appreciate the formidable work that Zhao and King are doing even though they’re not at the top of my picks for the year. I’d be happy with any of them winning, though I’d probably choose Fincher or Fennell.
Who will win? Based on her absolute domination of critics’ prizes, I think this goes to Zhao and would be legitimately surprised by anyone else.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Director – Motion Picture

My predictions: 5/5
Who’s missing? Florian Zeller (The Father), Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods)

I’m proud to have predicted this category accurately, one of just two perfect scores for me this year. It’s a major first to have more than one female nominee in this category, and this time there are actually three! I did guess correctly that Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) would be embraced along with her film, and Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) was a sure thing given her domination of critics’ prizes this season. It seems like Regina King (One Night in Miami) may have gotten in partially on her own reputation as an actress and a known quantity since her film was strangely absent from the Best Motion Picture – Drama and screenplay races. Despite not factoring in as emphatically as they could have to the precursor races, Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7), a two-time Globe winner in the category, and David Fincher (Mank), the only past nominee (and winner) for directing, did make the cut.

Who will win? I might have said King if her film had performed better, so I’ll say Zhao has it in the bag.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Director – Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced shortly, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that, especially this year, it’s hard to know which films and performances will end up being honored.

Last year’s nominees:
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

This is a category that mostly draws from Best Motion Picture - Drama nominees and a well-received Comedy/Musical honoree or two. The big question this year is if multiple women can break through here. An all-male lineup is guaranteed not to happen thanks to Chloe Zhao (Nomadland), and she may be joined by Regina King (One Night in Miami), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), Kelly Reichardt (First Cow), or Eliza Hittman (Never Rarely Sometimes Always). Male frontrunners include David Fincher (Mank), Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Florian Zeller (The Father), Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods), Lee Isaac Chung (Minari),  and Paul Greengrass (News of the World).

Current predictions:
David Fincher (Mank)
Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
Regina King (One Night in Miami)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

The competition:
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman) directs his twenty-fifth film, which earns him his ninth nomination in this category and tenth overall. He won this prize in 2002 for “Gangs of New York,” in 2006 for “The Departed,” and in 2011 for “Hugo.” He was also awarded the Cecil B. DeMille Award in 2009. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama, its screenplay, and for performances from stars Al Pacino and Joe Pesci.

Todd Phillips (Joker) directs his tenth film, which earns him his first nomination. He directed 2009’s winner for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical, “The Hangover.” His film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama, its score, and for star Joaquin Phoenix’s performance.

Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) directs his ninth film, returning to this category previous nominations for “Pulp Fiction,” “Inglourious Basterds,” and “Django Unchained.” He has two wins and two additional nominations in the screenplay category, where he also contends this year. His film is up for Best Motion Picture – Drama and for performances from stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt.

Bong Joon Ho (Parasite) directs his seventh film, earning him his first bid in this category. He is also nominated for Best Foreign Film. His film contends for its screenplay.

Sam Mendes (1917) directs his eighth film, returning to this category after a win for his directorial debut, “American Beauty,” in 1999. His film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and its score.

Additional notes: The winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar ten times out of the past fifteen years, with only Ben Affleck missing out on a nomination altogether. Five of the last fifteen years, the film that won in this category did not also win the top corresponding film prize. Foreign film directors triumphed three out of the last four times they were nominated in this category, including last year.
Who should win? I don’t think this is Tarantino’s strongest work by any stretch and wouldn’t include him here. The other four are all excellent choices. I’d probably pick Scorsese or Joon Ho.
Who will win? While it’s possible that Joon Ho, Tarantino, or Mendes wins, I think that Scorsese will triumph.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Director – Motion Picture

My predictions: 3/5, missing Ho and Phillips
Who’s missing? Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story), Greta Gerwig (Little Women), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)

There was definitely a strong surge of support for Todd Phillips (Joker) and his film, though it’s also possible that he won’t be along the ride if he follows the path of another director who used to do less sophisticated comedies whose film went on to win Best Picture without him even being nominated (Peter Farrelly for “Green Book” last year). This is also good news for Bong Joon Ho (Parasite), whose film scored three total bids, which is pretty much the best it could have done given that it’s a foreign film. Sam Mendes (1917) saw his film get nominated in every category it could have since there aren’t a wealth of technical categories for it to dominate like it likely will at the Oscars. The other two nominees, as expected, are Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) and Martin Scorsese (The Irishman). Interestingly, Baumbach couldn’t manage to get in here despite his film being the nominations leader. This list also doesn’t include any women, with Gerwig as the only one who stood much of a chance going in, a track record that’s only continuing to become a trend each year.

Who will win? I think Scorsese wins this, though it could be Mendes or Tarantino.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Director – Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced shortly, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Adam McKay (Vice)

This is a category that mostly draws from Best Motion Picture - Drama nominees and a well-received Comedy/Musical honoree or two, which, this year will probably be two. Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) should be a sure thing, while Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit) is likely but not guaranteed. Martin Scorsese (The Irishman) is a lock, and, based on recent buzz, so is Sam Mendes (1917). I think Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story) and Bong Joon Ho (Parasite) are competing for the last slot, with a disadvantage to the latter, which is not eligible in the top categories because it’s a foreign-language film. The same is true for longshot Lulu Wang (The Farewell). Another possibility is Greta Gerwig (Little Women), though she wasn’t nominated for “Lady Bird” two years ago when it won Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. I’m not sure any of the other possibilities, like Clint Eastwood (Richard Jewell), Todd Phillips (Joker), Marielle Heller (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari) and Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory), feel like they’ll be able to muster enough support.

Current predictions:
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

The competition:
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) directs his twenty-third film, which earns him his second career bid in this category after contending here and for writing “Do the Right Thing” in 1989. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and for performances by stars John David Washington and Adam Driver.

Peter Farrelly (Green Book) directs his thirteenth film, which earns him his first nomination, along with a bid for the film’s screenplay. His film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and for performances by stars Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali. Farrelly co-directed previous Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical contender “There’s Something About Mary” from 1998.

Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) directs his eighth film, returning to this category after a win in 2013 for “Gravity.” He is also nominated for the film’s screenplay and for Best Foreign Film, a category in which he contended in 2001 for “Y Tu Mama Tambien.”

Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) makes his directorial debut, earning him his first bid in this category. He is also nominated for his performance in the film, adding to his two previous acting nominations for “American Hustle” and “Silver Linings Playbook.” His film contends for Best Motion Picture – Drama, star Lady Gaga, and its signature song.

Adam McKay (Vice) directs his seventh film, earning him his first bid in this category. He also contends for the film’s screenplay, his second nomination in that category after “The Big Short” in 2015, which was up for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical that year. His film is the nominations leader at the Globes this year, in the running for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and its three main stars’ performances.

Additional notes: The winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar nine times out of the past fifteen years, with only Ben Affleck missing out on a nomination altogether. Five of the last fifteen years, the film that won in this category did not also win the top film prize. Foreign film directors triumphed two out of the last three times they were nominated in this category.
Who should win? I don’t think McKay belongs here, mostly because of how exaggerated and obnoxious his film often feels. Lee brings his signature style to his film, which didn’t wow me the way it impressed others. Cooper did a great job framing a film in which he starred, and I wouldn’t be disappointed to see him take the award. Farrelly’s movie flows well and he does a good job keeping it interesting. Cuaron, however, is the one who truly captures the art of storytelling with his black-and-white ode to an era.
Who will win? Given the foreign film statistics for this category and the love for his film, I think that Cuaron is safely ahead of Cooper.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Director – Motion Picture

My predictions: 3/5, missing Spike Lee and Adam McKay
Who’s missing? Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk), Damien Chazelle (First Man), Ryan Coogler (Black Panther), Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)

This category contains some great news for certain directors and very bad news for others. I didn’t expect Adam McKay (Vice) to peak this early, both because he didn’t get a Globe nomination before his eventual Oscar bid for “The Big Short” and because his film performed poorly with precursors. Ending up as the nominations leader here means that it is a firm frontrunner in a way it really wasn’t before. The same goes for Peter Farrelly (Green Book), whose inclusion as a comedy film director was far from guaranteed. Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) earned his first nomination in twenty-nine years and only his second overall, giving him a decent shot at Oscar for the first time. The news is worst for Lanthimos, whose omission is disconcerting, and Chazelle, who is now likely out of the race. Jenkins probably doesn’t have to worry as much, but he’s going to have some serious competition to get past the previously mentioned nominees. It's worth noting that there are no female directors here again, but I don't know if the contenders this year were as high-profile as Greta Gerwig last year, so we'll see if someone shows up later in the race. Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) and Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) have nothing to worry about since their films did great and they’re far out ahead.

Who will win? I’m putting my money on Cuaron.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Director – Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Steven Spielberg (The Post)
Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

This is a category that mostly draws from Best Motion Picture - Drama nominees and a well-received Comedy/Musical honoree or too, and, on occasion, a big name whose film likely just missed out on a slot in the drama race. It also sometimes happens that foreign films, ineligible for the two top categories, are honored here, and that’s likely to be the case with Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) this year. It’s hard to imagine Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) not getting in, and, unless awards season turns out differently than most are expecting, Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) and Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) will be nominated too. Even if he doesn’t make it all the way to Oscar, Damien Chazelle (First Man) feels like a solid bet to round out this list. Comedy helmers Peter Farrelly (Green Book) and Adam McKay (Vice) are possible, as are Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) and Steve McQueen (Widows). He isn’t likely to get in for acting, but Clint Eastwood (The Mule) is a Globe favorite in this category and could easily show up.

Current predictions:
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Damien Chazelle (First Man)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

The competition: Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World), Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), Steven Spielberg (The Post), Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water), Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

For your information: Spielberg holds the record for most nominations in this category, earning his twelfth mention this year. He won twice, for “Schindler’s List” and “Saving Private Ryan.” Scott has been nominated four times, most recently for “The Martian” in 2015. His film is the only one not nominated for a best picture prize. This is Nolan’s second nod, following “Inception” in 2010. Del Toro and McDonagh are both first-time nominees, and they’re also recognized this year in the screenplay race.

Who should win? Nolan’s work was focused and powerful, but Del Toro is far ahead of the rest as my choice.

Who will win? I don’t actually think there’s a frontrunner here. My best guess is Nolan even though his film is least represented in Globe categories.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Director - Motion Picture

My predictions: 3/5, picking Guadagnino and Gerwig over McDonagh and Scott
Who’s missing? Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Jordan Peele (Get Out)

And here we have it - the biggest shock of the nominations. Ridley Scott (All the Money in the Word), nominated along with two of his actors for a film that was just recently reshot and has barely been seen by anyone, including me. I’m intrigued and now I’ll have to see it! Jordan Peele didn’t get in, as many expected, but neither did Greta Gerwig, which is a shame. Luca Guadagnino missing out is not great news for his film since that was an unexpected stumbling block, leaving it with just three nominations. I’d be much more excited for Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) if I have loved his film, which managed six nominations, tying the count for “The Post,” whose director, Steven Spielberg, earned a record twelfth bid this morning. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) is here, and his film made about its expected impact given the lack of technical categories. The helmer of the nominations leader, Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water), is my happiest inclusion.

Who will win? I’d say that Del Toro wins over Nolan.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Director – Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)

This list is usually made up of drama nominees and occasionally includes a comedy director in there too. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) is the surest thing, and Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water) should place too. I’d put good money on the visually striking Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name) and Sean Baker (The Florida Project) to show up, though neither is guaranteed. Steven Spielberg (The Post) is already well ahead of anyone else with the most nominations in this category and stands to earn his twelfth bid if he makes the cut this year. Dee Rees (Mudbound), Joe Wright (Darkest Hour), Jordan Peele (Get Out), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Todd Haynes (Wonderstruck), and Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards, Outside Missouri) are also likely to garner votes.

Current predictions:
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Steven Spielberg (The Post)
Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

The competition: Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)

For your information: Only two of these men have been nominated before. Lonergan contended for his screenplay for “You Can Count on Me” in 2000 and Gibson won this award in 1995 for “Braveheart.” Every director except for Gibson is also nominated for penning the screenplay for his film. “Nocturnal Animals” is the only film not nominated for best motion picture. The last musical to win this award was “Yentl” back in 1983. As far as I can tell, “Bird” was the last film to win this award with a corresponding best motion picture nomination back in 1988.

Who should win? Lonergan does a tremendous job, but I’d be okay with Chazelle and even Jenkins winning also. I wouldn’t be excited about Gibson because I don’t think he did the best job (and don’t love him personally), and though I loved Ford’s first film, I didn’t like this one at all.

Who will win? I think there are three big contenders for this award, and I feel like Chazelle will be able to prevail here as a result.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Director – Motion Picture

My predictions: 3/5, picking Washington and Scorsese over Ford and Gibson
Who’s missing? Denzel Washington (Fences), Martin Scorsese (Silence), Jeff Nichols (Loving)

When this category was announced, I called Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge) being included, and I really am intrigued to see the film now since it hadn’t been at the top of my list. It’s rare that a film not nominated for either Best Motion Picture prize makes the cut, and I’d be happy if it was anyone other than Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals), since I loved his first film, “A Single Man,” and really didn’t like this movie, which I’ll review next week. Scorsese couldn’t make the cut for a film that got snubbed, and Washington only got in for acting. The other three films are the undisputed frontrunners, Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), and Barry Jenkins (Moonlight).

Who will win? I think it might actually be Gibson, but Chazelle is probably a safer choice.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Director – Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced very soon, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Todd Haynes (Carol)
Ridley Scott (The Martian)
George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant)
Thomas McCarthy (Spotlight)

This category often mixes films nominated in the top drama and comedy categories and occasionally throws in a director whose film isn’t recognized in one of those races. Count on Martin Scorsese (Silence), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), and Damien Chazelle (La La Land) to make the cut, and if any of them doesn’t, aside from Scorsese, whose film may have peaked too late, consider that a major blow to their awards chances. I can’t imagine that Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge) will be the one to join them, but who will it be instead? Maybe Denzel Washington (Fences), Pablo Larrain (Jackie), Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals), Jeff Nichols (Loving), or someone else entirely?

Current predictions:
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Martin Scorsese (Silence)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

The competition: Todd Haynes (Carol), George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road), Ridley Scott (The Martian), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant), Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)

For your information: Only two of these nominees have contended before for directing, and none have won. Though he won the Oscar last year, Inarritu was just a nominee at the Globes, and took home the the screenplay award for “Birdman.” He was previously nominated for directing “Babel” in 2006. Scott was previously nominated for helming “American Gangster” in 2007 and “Gladiator” in 2000. Haynes was nominated in the screenplay category for “Far From Heaven” in 2002. The only time a comedy won in the past twenty-five years was “Gosford Park” in 2001, and “The Martian” is considered a comedy here.

Who should win? I enjoyed Scott and McCarthy’s films most, and I think they deserve a lot of the credit. I wouldn’t be too upset about any of these films winning since the directors were instrumental in making what was strong about them strong.

Who will win? It could be Inarritu or McCarthy, but I think that Miller shouldn’t have too much trouble taking home this award.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Director – Motion Picture

My predictions: 3/5, picking Tarantino and Boyle over Haynes and Miller
Who’s missing? Quentin Tarantino, Danny Boyle, Lenny Abrahamson

The two films I picked that didn’t get in here were recognized for their screenplays, while the two that made the cut over them weren’t, so maybe I was just predicting the wrong race. Todd Haynes (Carol) and George Miller (Max Max: Fury Road) getting in show that the critics’ awards that have been handed out so far have been accurate in showing what’s most beloved this year. This is the first nomination for both of them, along with Tom McCarthy (Spotlight). This is the third nomination for Ridley Scott (The Martian), the lone comedy contender in the bunch, and the third for Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant), who lost this award last year before winning the Oscar. More on this race once I’ve seen the remaining two films.

Who will win? I think it may well be Miller.