Saturday, March 26, 2022

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Picture

The competition: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story

Previous winners: Nomadland, Parasite, Green Book, The Shape of Water, Moonlight, Spotlight, Birdman
My winner: Promising Young Woman
The facts: “The Power of the Dog” is the nominations leader, with twelve bids. “Dune” is next with ten, “West Side Story” and “Belfast” have seven, “King Richard” has six, “Don’t Look Up,” “Drive My Car,” and “Nightmare Alley” have four, and “CODA” and “Licorice Pizza” have three. Most precusors have gone to “The Power of the Dog,” but “CODA” has surged recently, winning the SAG Award for ensemble cast (where the former frontrunner wasn’t nominated) and then the PGA Award. It’s incredibly rare for a film to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination, but “Green Book” pulled it off three years ago, suggesting that “CODA” still could, even if it also doesn’t have a Best Film Editing nomination. Read more in my Oscar Volley for The Film Experience.

Who should win: “CODA” is my number one, following closely by “Belfast” and “Licorice Pizza.”
Who will win: I’m going with CODA over “The Power of the Dog,” which still could easily triumph.

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