Friday, February 25, 2011

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Director

The competition: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), David O. Russell (The Fighter), Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech), David Fincher (The Social Network), Joel & Ethan Coen (True Grit)

Previous winners: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire), Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men), Martin Scorsese (The Departed), Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain), Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)
My winner: Giorgos Lanthimos (Dogtooth)
Who should win: Fincher or Nolan
Who will win: While we do have two films that are in fairly tight competition for the top prize, it’s hardly as cut-and-dry as it was last year. Let’s start with the three contenders that probably won’t win this award. The Coen brothers won this award just three years ago, so I find it hard to believe that, despite the ten nominations for “True Grit,” they would win again this soon. Both Aronofsky and Russell have their devoted fans, but it’s likely their films will get their recognition in the acting categories. Hooper won the Directors Guild of America prize, which was a bit of a surprise, and many might suggest that he’s on the same path that Bigelow was last year when she started eclipsing Cameron. What’s telling however, is that Fincher won the BAFTA Award even after “The King’s Speech” took pretty much every other category. Given the fact that Fincher won nearly every precursor, and that he’s a past nominee and has a striking filmography, I think he’ll still prevail. “The King’s Speech” is a film that can still win Best Picture without winning Best Director, and I think that “The Social Network” and David Fincher will ultimately get honored here.

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