Saturday, February 26, 2011

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Picture

The competition: Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone

Previous winners: The Hurt Locker, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, The Departed, Crash, Million Dollar Baby
Who should win Toy Story, The Social Network, or 127 Hours
Who will win: This ten-film Best Picture race is still untested, so it’s worth running through all of the contenders, even those without much of a chance, since anything could theoretically happen. “Winter’s Bone” is too independent, “127 Hours” too gritty, and “The Kids Are All Right” too light-hearted. “Toy Story 3,” popular as it is, is still an animated film and will get its consolation prize there. “True Grit” earned ten nominations but wasn’t nearly as praised as some of its competition. “Black Swan” and “The Fighter” did well with precursors and nomination totals, but those films will earn their acting trophies and that should be it. “Inception” would make for an awesome upset, but its snub in the directing and editing categories makes that nearly impossible. We’re down to the two legitimate contenders: “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network.” The latter film was in the lead for such a long time, and now it seems the former has bolted far ahead. Yet it’s still within the realm of possibility that Oscar voters could agree with critics and members of the Hollywood Foreign Press. Given its recent DGA, PGA, SAG, and BAFTA victories, I’m calling this one in favor of “The King’s Speech.” It’s not a lock, but it’s looking pretty good right now.

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