Monday, December 2, 2019

Monday Oscar Odds

I was supposed to see “Little Women” yesterday in New York, but the screening was cancelled at the last minute when the theater closed early due to inclement weather. I’m on a plane now back to Los Angeles, where the weather should be better and I shouldn’t have any problem seeing it later this week. Also on my schedule already for the next week are “Richard Jewell,” which seems to be building up steam, “Hustlers,” and a handful of Best International Feature contenders. From what I’ve been seeing thus far from the groups that have announced their nominees, I think I need to go see “Knives Out,” and, as much as I don’t want to, it seems that “Us” will almost definitely be an awards player.

I did watch “Waves,” which I don’t think will be the awards contender I initially thought it would, and so I’m removing Sterling K. Brown for now from the Best Supporting Actor race. He may still contend, but I don’t think so. I also watched “Rocketman,” which will likely place in the technical categories but not anything too major. That’s all I have in terms of updates – I didn’t watch many movies during Thanksgiving week but will make up for that this coming week.

The Annie Awards announced their nominations for the best in animation today, and, despite a few omissions of top contenders in the Best Director category, all is pretty much as expected. I’ve barely seen any of these, but “Toy Story 4,” “Frozen 2,” “Missing Link,” and “How to Drain Your Dragon: The Hidden World.” Nipping at their heels are “Klaus,” “Weathering with You,” and “I Lost My Body,” and, despite its presence in a few technical categories, “Abominable” didn’t make the cut in any top race.

The other big news comes from the British Independent Film Awards, which crowned “For Sama” its Best Picture winner. While none of the films it beat will contend in major categories and only three past nominees have gone on to be nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture, its significant that this Best Documentary contender took home that prize. I’m going to put it back in my predictions, replacing “Apollo 11.”

The Gotham Awards tonight are expected to crown either “The Farewell” or “Marriage Story” their best film, though “Uncut Gems” might also win. It doesn’t have much of an effect on the Oscars other than to give a boost to whatever film takes home prizes. The Satellite Awards should also announce sometime tonight, and while they’re not significant, they do offer a look at what films and performances could make the cut in an expanded lineup.

One week from today, the Golden Globe nominations will be unveiled, and then next Wednesday, SAG nominations will be announced. Two weeks from today, we’ll get finalists in a bunch of Oscar categories, so stay tuned for lots of predictions, commentary, and more, plus reviews of as many contenders as I can watch and write.

Current predictions:

Best Picture
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Director
Martin Scorsese The Irishman)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

Best Actor
Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Best Actress
Awkwafina (The Farewell)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

Best Original Screenplay
The Farewell
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Irishman

Best Animated Feature
Frozen II
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Weathering with You

Best Documentary
American Factory
Apollo 11
The Biggest Little Farm
For Sama

Best International Feature
Les Miserables (France)
Out Stealing Horses (Norway)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)

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