Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Non-English Language Film

The competition:
Compartment No. 6 (Finland/Germany/Russia) is directed by Juho Kuosmanen, marking his third film. As far as I can tell, Finland has been nominated twice in the past, most recently in 2015 for “The Fencer.” This film is on the Oscar shortlist as Finland’s submission for Best International Feature.

Drive My Car (Japan) is directed by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, marking his thirteenth film. As far as I can tell, Japan has eleven previous nominations, most recently in 2013 for “The Wind Rises” and in 2018 for “Shoplifters.” This film is on the Oscar shortlist as Japan’s submission for Best International Feature.

The Hand of God (Italy) is directed by Paolo Sorrentino, marking his ninth film and his second nomination in this category. He won in 2013 for “The Great Beauty.” As far as I can tell, Italy has thirty-six previous nominations and nine wins. “The Life Ahead” was its most recent nominee last year. This film is on the Oscar shortlist as Italy’s submission for Best International Feature.

A Hero (France/Iran) is directed by Asghar Farhadi, marking his ninth film and fourth nomination in this category, representing all of Iran’s mentions. He won in 2011 for “A Separation” and was nominated again in 2013 for “The Past” and in 2016 for “The Salesman.” This film is on the Oscar shortlist as Iran’s submission for Best International Feature.

Parallel Mothers (Spain) is directed by Pedro Almodóvar, marking his twenty-second film and ninth nomination in this category. He won in 1999 for “All About My Mother” and in 2002 for “Talk to Her.” He was last nominated in 2019 for “Pain and Glory.” As best as I can tell, Spain has ten previous nominations and three wins, the third of which was for “The Sea Inside” in 2004. His film is also nominated for its score. This film was not Spain’s Oscar submission for Best International Feature, but “The Good Boss,” from Spain, is on the shortlist.

Additional notes: Last year, just one of the three films nominated here who were submitted at the Oscars ended up getting nominated there, which was eventual winner “Another Round.” Before last year, when “Minari” won, the previous two winners of this category, “Parasite” and “Roma,” won the corresponding Oscar, while the two before that, “In the Fade” and “Elle,” weren’t even nominated. Only seven winners in this category have gone on to win the corresponding Oscar in the past fifteen years.
What should win? This is a very good list. I’d be fine with any of them winning, though I’d probably choose “A Hero,” “Parallel Mothers,” or “Drive My Car.”
What will win? Given its critical wins, Drive My Car seems likely.