Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Foreign Film

The competition: Ajami (Israel), The Milk of Sorrow (Peru), The Secret of Her Eyes (Argentina), A Prophet (France), The White Ribbon (Germany)

Previous winners: Departures (Japan), The Counterfeiters (Austria), The Lives of Others (Germany), Tsotsi (South Africa), The Sea Inside (Spain)
Who should win: “The White Ribbon” or “A Prophet,” but I haven’t seen two of the others
Who will win: It seems like we have a far-ahead frontrunner in the form of “The White Ribbon,” but it’s difficult to be certain. Last year, when two films, “The Class” and “Waltz with Bashir,” were ahead in the derby, a third, “Departures,” emerged from out of nowhere to take home the trophy. I had initially thought that “A Prophet” might be a formidable rival, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. “Ajami” is the third consecutive film from Israel nominated in this category, but it’s the weakest of the three and shouldn’t be able to win. I haven’t seen the other two, but it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to beat the films that have already been released, even though anyone who votes on this category has to see all five. Buzz is really strong for The White Ribbon, and it’s a great way to honor an eccentric director, Michael Haneke, for his far more mainstream work.