Sunday, January 6, 2019

Final Golden Globe Winner Predictions

The Golden Globes are tonight, and I’m more prepared than I’ve ever been. I didn’t bother to see “Dumplin’,” but I have listened to its nominated song many times and have developed an affinity for it. Otherwise, I’ve seen everything, and here’s where it all stands.

Last year, the Best Motion Picture – Drama race was wide open, and the unexpected winner went on to lose the Best Picture Oscar. This year, “A Star is Born” seems completely safe, whereas “Roma,” which is ineligible for the top prize here and nominated instead for Best Foreign Film, is its likeliest competition at the Oscars. I’d love to see “If Beale Street Could Talk” pull off a surprise victory after it ended up being the only film recognized in that category to get snubbed by the Producers Guild when they announced their nominees, but I don’t see that happening. If anything is going to beat the frontrunner, it’s “Black Panther.”

The Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical race, on the other hand, is wide open in a way that it hasn’t been since 2014, and not really since 2009 before that. “Crazy Rich Asians” triumphing would be a shock, and “Mary Poppins Returns” isn’t likely either. But the other three all stand a solid chance of victory. I’m hoping it won’t be “Vice,” but it is the nominations leader, which means Globe voters obviously liked it. The popular choice is “Green Book,” but I’m predicting “The Favourite.” All three are expected to be Oscar Best Picture nominees, the largest representation from this category since 2013, where four out of five films here ended up on that list. The only one that’s not certain is “Vice,” and a win here could cement its chances.

The big question is whether “Roma” performs almost as strongly as it can, winning Best Foreign Film and Best Director. If it manages to win Best Screenplay, then I’d say that Oscar race is all sewn up. Likelier, one of the comedy contenders will triumph there instead. My predictions have “A Star is Born” and “The Favourite” each taking three awards home. I’m betting on Mahershala Ali and Regina King, who wasn’t nominated by SAG, to win the supporting trophies, though I remember picking Christopher Plummer and Laurie Metcalf last year before Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney began their awards season marathons. If it’s Richard E. Grant and Amy Adams, then we’ll probably expect to see them triumph again and again the same way.

Let’s hope for some excitement! Check out my predictions below and leave your thoughts in the comments! Full analysis can be found by clicking on category headings. Head over to for TV categories.

Best Motion Picture - Drama
A Star is Born

Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
The Favourite

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Christian Bale (Vice)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Best Animated Feature Film
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Foreign Language Film

Best Director - Motion Picture
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
The Favourite

Best Original Score - Motion Picture
First Man

Best Original Song - Motion Picture
“Shallow” (A Star is Born)

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