Thursday, December 10, 2015

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture


My predictions: 2/5, picking only Elba and Rylance
Who’s missing? Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Jacob Tremblay, Benicio Del Toro

So this list only ports over three nominees from yesterday’s SAG slate, but still manages to leave off Keaton and Ruffalo, a very puzzling omission given how much it seems that the film was loved, earning three top nominations today. SAG nominee Christian Bale got moved to the lead race, making room for Paul Dano (Love and Mercy), making it clear that I have to see that film as soon as I can. And I really didn’t want to have to see Sylvester Stallone (Creed) in his film, and even passed up the opportunity to do so earlier this week in the hopes that he wouldn’t be nominated. I’m ecstatic that Michael Shannon (99 Homes) is here, and even though he wasn’t really supporting, it’s hardly a big deal since he was so good. Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) and Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), who are also both nominated for their TV work in the same category, are the sole representatives of their films.

Who will win? I’m not sure there is a frontrunner, but I’ll say Dano for now.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical


My predictions: 4/5, picking Streep over McCarthy
Who’s missing? Meryl Streep

I did pretty well here, not expecting the love for Melissa McCarthy (Spy), who this group snubbed for “Bridesmaids” before she eventually landed an Oscar nomination for the role. Her film surprisingly scored a Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical nomination, along with that of another nominee: Amy Schumer (Trainwreck), who presenter Dennis Quaid was visibly excited for given his frequent starring on her show. Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) rebounded from yesterday’s SAG snub with an okay showing for her film, which also appeared in the top category only. Lily Tomlin (Grandma) is a double nominee this year with a mention on the TV side of things for “Grace and Frankie.” Rounding out the list is Maggie Smith (The Lady in the Van), who I’m embarrassed to say is the only nominee in this race whose performance I’ve seen. Time to get on that.

Who will win? I think Lawrence will eclipse the others.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical


My predictions: 3/5, picking De Niro and Murray over Bale and Ruffalo
Who’s missing? Robert De Niro, Bill Murray, Bill Hader

After yesterday’s shocking SAG snub, Matt Damon (The Martian) is officially back in the race. A surprising SAG inclusion in the supporting race, Christian Bale (The Big Short), showed up here alongside costar Steve Carell (The Big Short), suggesting that Oscar chances are mixed if his category classification is uncertain. Al Pacino (Danny Collins) showed up as expected for a film that came out way back at the beginning of the year. Most exciting is the inclusion of an actor who wasn’t even on my radar for this performance: Mark Ruffalo (Infinitely Polar Bear). I liked him a lot in that sweet film I saw at Sundance almost two years ago, and it’s a better performance than the one for which he was snubbed, “Spotlight.”

Who will win? I’ll go with Damon.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama


My predictions: 5/5
Who’s missing? Sarah Silverman, Helen Mirren, Carey Mulligan, Charlotte Rampling

This category was my only 100% race today, and it’s a good thing considering yesterday’s shocking surprises. Both Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) got successfully promoted from the supporting race to here, though I got confused when I heard Vikander’s name called in the supporting race during the choppy livestream of the nominations, but that’s just because she was nominated there for “Ex Machina.” She could well be a double Oscar nominee if she stays in these categories. Cate Blanchett (Carol) is here as expected, and Brie Larson (Room) saw her film get a Best Motion Picture – Drama nomination while the fifth nominee, Saiorse Ronan (Brooklyn), is the sole representative of her film today. I’m planning to see “The Danish Girl” tonight, and then I’ll have seen this entire category.

Who will win? I think Larson unless one of the “Carol” women takes it.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama


My predictions: 3/5, picking Depp and Hanks over Cranston and Smith
Who’s missing? Johnny Depp, Tom Hanks

I didn’t even realize when the nominees were announced that Depp, who got nominated yesterday for a SAG Award, wasn’t among them. Instead, we got Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), who was recognized yesterday and whose film appears to have performed better than expected, and Will Smith (Concussion), who may or may not make it all the way to the Oscar finals. Joining them are three expected inclusions: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), the only actor in this category whose film is nominated for the top prize, Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl), and Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs).

Who will win? It’s hard to say at this point, but probably DiCaprio.

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Final Golden Globe Predictions

Please find my final Golden Globe predictions for all film categories below. This morning’s SAG Awards nominations announcement featured so many surprising and exciting inclusions, but as usual, rather than be reactionary, I’ve modified my predictions in only one or two places. I recognize that these are very different films than the ones honored by SAG, but I still this is how things are going to go down. You can see my TV predix over at TV with Abe. Check in all day tomorrow for reactions by category!

Best Motion Picture – Drama
Carol
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant
Spotlight
Steve Jobs


Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical
The Big Short
Joy
The Martian
Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
Our Brand Is Crisis


Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Johnny Depp (Black Mass)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Tom Hanks (Bridge of Spies)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Brie Larson (Room)
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical
Steve Carell (The Big Short)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Robert De Niro (The Intern)
Bill Murray (Rock the Kasbah)
Al Pacino (Danny Collins)

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
Amy Schumer (Trainwreck)
Maggie Smith (The Lady in the Van)
Meryl Streep (Ricki and the Flash)
Lily Tomlin (Grandma)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Benicio Del Toro (Sicario)
Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)
Michael Keaton (Spotlight)
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Jane Fonda (Youth)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Helen Mirren (Trumbo)
Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

Best Director – Motion Picture
Quentin Tarantino (The Hateful Eight)
Ridley Scott (The Martian)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant)
Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
Danny Boyle (Steve Jobs)

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
The Hateful Eight
The Martian
Room
Spotlight
Steve Jobs


Best Animated Feature Film
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
Minions
The Peanuts Movie


Best Foreign Language Film
The Second Mother (Brazil)
Felix and Meira (Canada)
Mustang (France)
Labyrinth of Lies (Germany)
Son of Saul (Hungary)

Best Original Score
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Martian
Spotlight


Best Original Song
See You Again (Furious 7)
Until It Happens to You (The Hunting Ground)
One Kind of Love (Love and Mercy)
Writing on the Wall (Spectre)
Cold One (Ricki and the Flash)

SAG Nominees: Best Ensemble Cast


My predictions: 2/5, picking only “Spotlight” and “Trumbo”
Who’s missing: Carol, The Hateful Eight, Joy, The Revenant, Room, Steve Jobs

This was a pretty surprising category, ditching ensembles with big names and instead going with the likes of Beasts of No Nation and The Big Short. The adventurous choice is definitely Straight Outta Compton, which I think I should probably see. It’s a good thing that Spotlight still made the cut after its surprising acting snubs, and I’m pleased to have called Trumbo being included – the cast was definitely diverse and great in that one.

Who could win? I’ll go with Spotlight still taking it.

SAG Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role


My predictions: 3/5, picking Banks and Fonda over McAdams and Mirren
Who’s missing: Jennifer Jason Leigh, Jane Fonda, Elizabeth Banks, Kristen Stewart

This category played out a bit as expected, and will surely look very different when the Golden Globe nominations are announced tomorrow since Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) will be considered leads. Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) was another sure thing, and a very deserving one at that. Helen Mirren (Trumbo) ended up being a double nominee for a movie that scored an unexpected three nominations. And then there’s Rachel McAdams (Spotlight), an odd choice to represent her film as the only individually-nominated performer since she was not the best in show. At least this is somewhat interesting, and this category is up for grabs a bit.

Who could win? I think Mara, but it might be Vikander too.

SAG Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role


My predictions: 1/5, picking only Rylance
Who’s missing: Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Benicio Del Toro, Tom Hardy, Paul Dano, Sylvester Stallone

Whoa! 1/5 is not good, and I didn’t even predict Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) in my initial write-up of this category (fortunately, I included it by the time I posted). They still got nominated as part of the film’s ensemble, but not seeing Keaton or Ruffalo here is disconcerting. I’m surprised that Christian Bale (The Big Short) made the cut, especially in this category, but I haven’t seen the film just yet, so more on that soon. Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) showing up here and having his film nominated in the ensemble race is big, and I definitely need to watch that film too. Jacob Tremblay (Room) is a great choice, even if he’s not quite in the right category, and I am beyond ecstatic about Michael Shannon (99 Homes), who I didn’t think was a legitimate contender despite being excellent in an excellent film that I hope people will see now.

Who could win? I’d say Rylance just because everyone else here is so surprising, but I’m not positive.

SAG Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role


My predictions: 3/5, picking Lawrence and Smith over Mirren and Silverman
Who’s missing: Jennifer Lawrence, Maggie Smith

I was so bowled over by the two surprise inclusions here that I didn’t even process the major omission: Jennifer Lawrence, whose film may have been too late-breaking to be seen by SAG voters, though I’m not sure that’s the case. In her place we have two shocking inclusions: Sarah Silverman (I Smile Back), who was good in her dramatic turn but not necessarily worthy of placement among this group. That’s also true of Helen Mirren (Woman in Gold), who starred in a likeable movie and is actually a double nominee today, which was not expected at all. The other three nominees are far more normative: Cate Blanchett (Carol), Brie Larson (Room), and Saiorse Ronan (Brooklyn). I’ve actually seen this entire group – it’s definitely not my list, but it’s an interesting one.

Who could win? Unless Blanchett or Ronan surges, it will be Larson.

SAG Nominees: Best Actor in a Leading Role


My predictions: 4/5, picking Damon over Cranston
Who’s missing: Matt Damon!

Now this is an intense start to an awards season that I definitely didn’t see coming: Matt Damon got snubbed for his much-loved performance in “The Martian.” Hopefully the Golden Globes will honor him tomorrow even though the film isn’t necessarily a comedy. It’s not a great start from him for sure, especially since he got beat out by Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), whose film earned two additional nominations, making it a much more major player than I think people expected. The other four are pretty solid and expected. Last year’s winner Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl) is back, joined by three previously nominated actors, Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs) and Johnny Depp (Trumbo), both of who were terrific, and Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), whose film I have yet to see.

Who could win? I’m really not sure! This may be the chance for DiCaprio to take home his first SAG trophy, but I’m not certain.

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

SAG Predictions: Best Ensemble Cast


Last year’s nominees: Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything

The rundown: This category is usually made up mostly of Best Picture contenders and a colorful choice or two. The safest bet and likely winner here is Spotlight, and it will probably be joined by Steve Jobs and Joy. After those, it’s a question of whether two late-breaking films, The Revenant and The Hateful Eight, can make the cut, or if other ensemble-centric films like Carol, Brooklyn, Bridge of Spies, or Trumbo will take their place.

Current predictions: Carol, Joy, Spotlight, Steve Jobs, Trumbo

SAG Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role


Last year’s nominees: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman), Meryl Streep (Into the Woods), and Naomi Watts (St. Vincent).

The rundown: I don’t expect any of last year’s nominees to be back, though voters might go overboard for Meryl Streep (Suffragette) in a minor role. The frontrunner here is Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs), who will earn her eighth nomination. Likely to join her are Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl), who will compete in the lead race at the Golden Globes. I’m not confident that Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight) will have her film seen in time to win over voters, and she may lose out to contenders from earlier in the year like Elizabeth Banks (Love and Mercy) and Helen Mirren (Trumbo). This could be a good place to honor Jane Fonda (Youth), and it will be a struggle for Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria) to make the cut, but she may well do it.

Current predictions: Banks, Fonda, Mara, Vikander, Winslet

Monday, December 7, 2015

SAG Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role


Last year’s nominees: Robert Duvall (The Judge), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Edward Norton (Birdman), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), and J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

The rundown: One nominee from last year should be back again: Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight), and he’ll probably be joined by another nominee from last year, his costar Michael Keaton (Spotlight), who was chosen as Best Actor by NYFCC. I’m not sold on who will join them just yet, but things are looking up for Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) based on his performance and Tom Hardy (The Revenant) based on buzz for the film. If Sylvester Stallone (Creed) is really in the race, he may show up here, and SAG favorite Benicio Del Toro (Sicario) will also need a boost from this group. Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) is a possibility, as are Jacob Tremblay (Room) and Harvey Keitel (Youth), and I’m sure someone completely surprising to join the race.

Current predictions: Del Toro, Hardy, Keaton, Ruffalo, Rylance

SAG Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role


Last year’s nominees: Jennifer Aniston (Cake), Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything), Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), and Reese Witherspoon (Wild).

The rundown: None of last year’s nominees will return this year, but there are a few solid frontrunners. Brie Larson (Room) will earn her first nomination as Cate Blanchett (Carol) will vie for her eighth. Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) is a good bet to earn her fourth nomination, and Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) may earn her first. After that, it’s anyone’s guess: veterans like Charlotte Rampling (45 Years), Lily Tomlin (Grandma), or Maggie Smith (The Lady in the Van) or younger selections like Carey Mulligan (Suffragette). Maybe we’ll get a nice surprise like Aniston again this year.

Current predictions: Blanchett, Larson, Lawrence, Ronan, Smith

Sunday, December 6, 2015

SAG Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role


Last year’s nominees: Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler), Michael Keaton (Birdman), and Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything).

The rundown: Last year’s winner, Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl) is sure to return, while another nominee, Keaton, will probably be recognized in the supporting category. Likely joining him are Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs) and Matt Damon (The Martian). After that, there’s plenty of competition. Michael Caine (Youth) has never been nominated for a SAG and could earn his first nomination, and Will Smith (Concussion) could earn his second. Two-time TV honoree Bryan Cranston (Trumbo) has a decent shot at his first solo film nod, but I’m betting on Johnny Depp (Black Mass), who won this award twelve years ago for “Pirates of the Caribbean.”

Current predictions: Damon, Depp, DiCaprio, Fassbender, Redmayne

Movie with Abe: The Lady in the Van


The Lady in the Van
Directed by Nicholas Hytner
Released December 4, 2015

Some stories are almost too crazy to be believed, and it’s important to ground them in some way to make their telling more digestible. Such is the case of the titular character here, the eccentric Miss Shepherd (Maggie Smith), who lived on the street and in the driveway of playwright Alan Bennett (Alex Jennings) for fifteen years in London. This true story is entertaining and fanciful, and the way it is told here does justice to that, finding a creative outlet and style to make its admittedly wild events feel legitimate, worthwhile, and, above all, a delight to watch.

By the time Bennett moves into his home in Camden, Shepherd is already an established feature of the neighborhood, constantly moving her run-down van, which she insists on painting the most putrid shades of yellow, nearer to someone else’s home. She does not shower or bathe and takes care of whatever bodily functions within the confines of her van. She sees no oddity in her own situation yet feels perfectly at liberty to insist that others behave a certain way around her, not playing music or being too loud even though she is the one encroaching upon their owned space. She acts and speaks like a deranged individual, and somehow she goes on day to day without changing her routine.

Bennett’s arrival signals a gradual change in her experience in the world since he cannot help but be slightly more helpful and charitable to her, even though he would rather not have to deal with her and immediately regrets almost every decision he makes that puts her physically closer to his property. Naturally, she almost never thanks him, and takes for granted his generosity. The bond that develops between them is an endearing but not sentimental one, and it’s marvelous to watch it play out over the course of the film.

The strongest decision employed is to have Bennett become just as strong a focal point, split into two versions of himself, one who lives life and the other who writes about it. That device enhances the lighthearted storytelling here greatly, molding this sensational tale into something just as fragmented as Shepherd’s life was. Smith is typically excellent, so well cast for this role that it’s no surprise she’s played it twice before, both on stage and in a radio adaptation. Jennings is great too, adding just the right dose of bewildered amazement tempered by his imagined split personality. This film is fun and a seemingly appropriate ode to a woman with a complicated life and the famous writer she so influenced.

B+

Friday, December 4, 2015

Movie with Abe: Youth


Youth
Directed by Paolo Sorrentino
Released December 4, 2015

A one-word title can often say much more than a few words or even a short sentence can. Naming a film may well be the most difficult part of making it, capturing its essence when its themes are varied and not contained to a particular character whose name could easily serve as its identifier. “Youth” is a word that evokes images of childhood and strength, and, as a result, calling a film that features two actors pushing eighty in the lead roles presents much opportunity for contemplation. That’s a good way to describe this film, a meditation on plenty of things, age, art, and fame chief among them.

Fred Ballinger (Michael Caine) is a mild-mannered man, one who speaks rarely and deliberately and spends much more time observing the world around him. If not for the Queen’s emissary trying to convince him to conduct a performance for Her Majesty, those on holiday alongside him would have no idea that Fred was once a revered conductor and composer. His friend Mick (Harvey Keitel) is prestigious enough in his own right, working with a handful of younger writers to pen the script for his next film. Others vacationing alongside them, such as Jimmy (Paul Dano), a young method actor, and Fred’s daughter Lena (Rachel Weisz), are unfazed by Fred, well aware of who he is and the advantages and pitfalls of being in his company.

Knowing that this film is Italian director Paolo Sorrentino’s follow-up to his Oscar winner “The Great Beauty” helps this film make a lot more sense. Its central story, following characters on their explorations of their current states and all that has led up to the present moment, is undoubtedly intriguing, yet plot is hardly central to this film. There are moments at which the film drifts off into fantasies and other imagined hallucinations, putting its events on hold as characters are distracted by a sound or a memory. Sometimes, it feels that the camera itself has been compelled by something other than the film’s own story, which adds depth at times and serves as a detriment at others.

Caine and Keitel are actors who have been working for decades and, unlike some colleagues and contemporaries, they have maintained a relatively solid and respectable quality of work. Caine is, as usual, subdued and effective, and Keitel is particularly well-cast as the director who still thinks he is brilliant and needs the reminder to continue along. Weisz and Jane Fonda both have standout supporting scenes as women from the men’s lives who play a much larger part than they might admit in shaping who they were and are. “Youth” is a haunting, insightful film that sometimes overreaches or seems to get lost, but when it is focused, it is mesmerizing.

B

Thursday, December 3, 2015

Movie with Abe: Moomins on the Riviera (Capsule Review)

Moomins on the Riviera
Directed by Hanna Hemilä and Xavier Picard
Released December 4, 2015


Every year, the handful of films that qualify for the Oscar for Best Animated Feature include at least a few interesting foreign offerings. One such entry this year is this Finnish adaptation of a popular comic strip about world-traveling animals with kind hearts and big dreams. The Moomins, who look a lot like hippopotamuses, find unexpected adventure and excitement when they travel far from home and find a life of luxury based on the invented premise of their nobility roots. There is a certain simplicity to this film and its story that is contradicted by its more complex themes, as those with pure imaginations are confronted with inconceivable fleeting realities. This is a film that’s fine for all ages, and an alluring if somewhat odd diversion from typical films featuring solid animation.

B

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Golden Globe Musings: Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Pride
St. Vincent


This category doesn’t have much consistency, often going for R-rated humor like “Bridesmaids” and “The Hangover” and other times concentrating on more serious fare. Two films that should dominate here are The Martian and Joy. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. The Big Short seems like a safe inclusion, and then we get to contenders like Trainwreck, The Intern, and Spy, as well as more sophisticated fare like Grandma and The Lady in the Van. I’m not sure Globe voters are ready for Tangerine, but they might be more into Our Brand is Crisis. I’m hoping for what would be the best nominee ever: Me and Earl and the Dying Girl.

Current predictions:
The Big Short
Joy
The Martian
Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
Our Brand is Crisis