Final Oscar Predictions

Last year, I had seen a lot of films but was still missing a few, and this year, I feel totally confident in all the narrative, live-action films I’ve seen, and I just have to catch up on animation, documentaries, and foreign films (most of which aren’t out yet). I’m excited to see what the nominations are going to be.

Last year, the big unfortunate surprises were the omissions of Ridley Scott in Best Director, “The Good Dinosaur” in Best Animated Feature, and the mess that was Best Supporting Actor. This year, I don’t know what to expect, and I’m pulling instead for the likes of “Sully” to finally do well and for great performances like Lucas Hedges’ and Isabelle Huppert’s to be recognized. I don’t know how much of that will happen, and I’d like to think I’m being less optimistic and more realistic than usual. I’m predicting thirteen nominations for “La La Land” and gung-ho about that going over well despite some backlash. And of course I’m hoping that “Manchester by the Sea” and especially “Hell or High Water” get acknowledged across the board. I have a sneaking suspicion that Denzel Washington might be nominated for his direction, but I’m not too sure of that. Let’s hope for only good surprises.

Last year, I wasn’t on the West Coast for the first time since 2011. This year, I’ll be spending my first morning at the Sundance Film Festival. I’d like to provide hourly reactions as usual, but it will depend on what other movies – that might contend for next year’s Oscars – I’m seeing at the moment. I’ll try to offer some reaction early on at the very least. Click on category headings for full predictions in each race. Chime in below with your thoughts and predictions, and check back tomorrow for news about the nominees!

No guts, no glory predictions:
Chris Pine for Best Actor for “Hell or High Water”
“American Honey” for Best Picture
“Elle” for Best Director

Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Silence

Best Director
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Martin Scorsese (Silence)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (Fences)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Amy Adams (Arrival)
Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Emma Stone (La La Land)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (Lion)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

Best Cinematography
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight

Best Art Direction
Arrival
Fences
Jackie
La La Land
Lion

Best Costume Design
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hail, Caesar!
Hidden Figures
Jackie
La La Land

Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Best Original Score
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Song
“Audition” (La La Land)
“City of Stars” (La La Land)
“How Far I’ll Go” (Moana)
“Drive It Like You Stole It” (Sing Street)
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” (Trolls)

Best Sound
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Sully

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hail, Caesar!

Best Visual Effects
Arrival
Captain America: Civil War
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Best Documentary Short Film
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
The Mute’s House
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

Best Animated Short Film
Happy End
The Head Vanishes
Inner Workings
Pearl
Piper

Best Live Action Short Film
Bon Voyage
La Femme et le TGV
Graffiti
Nocturne in Black
The Rifle, the Jackal, the Wolf and the Boy

Best Documentary
The Eagle Huntress
Life, Animated
OJ: Made in America
13th
Weiner

Best Foreign Language Film
It’s Only the End of the World
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann

Sundance with Abe: Free and Easy

I’m thrilled to be attending and covering the Sundance Film Festival in Park City, Utah for the fourth time. I’ll be seeing as many movies as I can and offering reviews throughout the week.

Free and Easy
Directed by Jun Geng
World Cinema Dramatic Competition

Crime is one of the oldest professions, and it has come and still comes in many different forms. There can be varying levels of sophistication to how a crime is perpetrated, from a simple pickpocketing to a full-on murder spree. As showcased in film and on television, crime is usually a serious business, though there are also lighter takes on even the most deadly of subjects – the incomparable “Fargo” comes to mind. “Free and Easy” is a fun and entertaining film that takes place in a land filled with very few people, most of them con men posing as something other than what they are.

The first two characters introduced are both selling something, but it’s the man who gives his customers a sample of the soap he wants them to buy who comes out ahead thanks to the unconsciousness that follows a whiff of the sweet-smelling soap. Acting as a stoic, matter-of-fact salesman, his trick works on many unsuspecting passersby who later wake up relieved of most of their belongings. When he encounters a monk who refuses to smell the soap, telling him that he trusts its quality and just asks for charity for his temple that has burned down, he recognizes a fellow con artist, and further antics continue from there as those in this small town circle back to each other with nowhere else to go.

There is a marvelous simplicity to the construction of this film. Set in a snow-covered town in northern China, it makes complete use of its sparsely-populated area to dwell on each of its characters, following them as they put up missing persons signs and walk through the streets peddling their products. All those, even the ones who lie – which is most in this film – present their actions in a straightforward manner, and the only complexity is to figure out whether there’s actually a grain of truth to their stories.

All the actors fit their parts very well, and enthusiasm and energy, seldom seen, are placed purposely when needed to show emotion and feeling of these relatively subdued characters. It’s when the more silent types choose to scream and expel what they’ve been keeping inside of them that this film demonstrates an effective dramatic component of an otherwise mostly comedic film. There’s plenty of cleverness to be found here, and this film has just the right deliberately slow pacing to make it all work masterfully.

“Free and Easy” has screenings coming up Monday, January 23rd at 10:00pm at Redstone Cinema 2, Thursday, January 26th at 2:30pm at the Prospector Square Theatre, and Friday, January 27th at 1:00pm at the Holiday Village Cinema 4.

B+

Sundance with Abe: Axolotl Overkill

I’m thrilled to be attending and covering the Sundance Film Festival in Park City, Utah for the fourth time. I’ll be seeing as many movies as I can and offering reviews throughout the week.

Axolotl Overkill
Directed by Helene Hegemann
World Cinema Dramatic Competition

There’s a certain innocence and sense of anything being achievable that comes with youth, and an attempt to do less than innocent things and conquer obstacles can provide a marvelous window into possibility and also deliver enormous disappointment. The cleverly-titled “Axolotl Overkill” comes from twenty-four-year-old German director Helene Hegemann, adapting her own novel, which she penned at age seventeen, and tells the story of Mifti, a sixteen-year-old girl living far outside the usual confines of a teenager’s life. Both the film and Mifti are gloriously layered and fascinating, defined by a unique energy that drives Mifti as she tries to live as an adult without a true knowledge of the world.

Mifti (Jasna Fritzi Bauer) is not a happy teenager. Her mother has just died, her father pays little attention to anyone other than his latest interest, and she has no desire to associate with any of her half-siblings. She prefers instead to spend time with older people, both men and women, wielding her sexuality as a weapon and latching on to the drastically different lifestyles that they live. Ophelia (Mavie Horbiger) and Alice (Arly Jover) are two such influences who find themselves entranced by Mifti and become objects of her obsession as they reciprocate with passion and by showing her what a lack of boundaries looks like.

There are a number of scenes in “Axolotl Overkill” that are scored by loud musical tracks. Some take place in nightclubs and others in more private settings, but the immutable noise serves as an effective representation of how Mifti is navigating through life, recklessly and without thought to the greater consequences of her actions. It also works as a stirring showcase of how deeply Mifti is immersing herself in each experience, letting of everything else and committing to the entrancing, engulfing completeness of that moment and feeling.

As if Hegemann’s writing and direction wasn’t strong enough, she has found a tremendous asset in lead actress and breakout star Bauer, who has the angsty teenager archetype down but takes it much further to create a believable and magnetic portrait of someone acting out for reasons other than the attention. Bauer carries the film with the help of more established actresses like Horbiger and Jover, and it’s hard to find a dull moment in this unfiltered, uncensored look at what teenage rebellion really looks like as shown through one girl’s experiences in present-day Berlin.

“Axolotl Overkill” has screenings coming up tonight, Sunday, January 22nd, at 9:45pm at the Broadway Centre Cinema 3, Salt Lake City, Wednesday, January 25th at 12:00pm at the Temple Theatre, Park City, and Friday, January 27th at 11:45pm at the Egyptian Theatre, Park City.

B+

Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight

This year’s locks: La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, Hell or High Water, Lion

Very likely: Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures

Possible: Silence, Hacksaw Ridge, Sully, Nocturnal Animals

Unlikely: Jackie, Captain Fantastic, Deadpool

The rundown: So we’re finally here at the end of an Oscar race that’s actually been much more exciting than usual in a lot of ways. If this were a five-film race as it used to be back in 2008, we would have our five locks and no real competition: the three frontrunners, La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea, one of my favorite films of the year, Hell or High Water, and Lion, which has been doing very well recently with all the guilds. Since we’re likely to have more, I think that Arrival is safe since it seems to be well-respected, Fences because it’s a solid display of directorial and acting achievement by Denzel Washington with a sure-to-win performance by Viola Davis, and Hidden Figures because it’s a feel-good movie that people are loving. After that, I’m really not so sure, but since I’m predicting Silence to get in for Best Director, I think it will score here just like “The Tree of Life” did a few years ago. I think nine, the number of nominees in 2011, 2012, and 2013, is what we’ll have this year. That means Hacksaw Ridge just misses the cut, which is possible but not totally likely. I wish Sully had done better this awards season, and I really hope I’m wrong in not predicting it. Nocturnal Animals, Jackie, Captain Fantastic, and Deadpool will all garner some votes but I don’t think any of them will be strong enough. Will we have a major surprise inclusion, or a major snub? If so, I hope it’s a good one.

One possible crazy scenario: It’s never going to happen, but all those people who raved about American Honey actually vote for it. I’d be thrilled.

Forecasted winner: Unless here’s a big surprise, I think that it’s definitely going to be La La Land.

Oscar Predictions: Best Director

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Adam McKay (The Big Short), George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road), Alejandro G. Inarritu (The Revenant), Lenny Abrahamson (Room), Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)

This year’s locks: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)

Very likely: Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)

Possible: Martin Scorsese (Silence), Garth Davis (Lion), David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water), Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Denzel Washington (Fences)

Unlikely: Paul Verhoeven (Elle), Pablo Larrain (Jackie), Jeff Nichols (Loving), Clint Eastwood (Sully), Theodore Melfi (Hidden Figures)

The rundown: It’s sad that the main defining aspect of this category the past few years has been what giant snub will take place. After both Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow were omitted in the shocking 2012 race, sure things Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips) and Ridley Scott (The Martian) were left off for no apparent reason in 2013 or 2015, respectively. This year, there are three that are invincible, and I really believe that - Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), and Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea). Denis Villeneuve (Arrival) rallied with a DGA nomination and should be able to make it to Oscar. The question is who the fifth nominee will be. Garth Davis (Lion) scored a DGA nod but seems like more of an eventual Oscar pick, which might mean he won’t get it. It could be David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water), whose film seems to be rightly beloved by many, or Golden Globe nominee Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals), whose film was divisive and downright terrible, in my mind, and isn’t expected to contend for Best Picture, no matter how many nominees. Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge) has a rough road ahead of him given his reputation, but he might still manage a nomination. Denzel Washington (Fences) would be a respectable choice, but I don’t think his film has enough momentum. There are a handful of others who might garner votes, but I don’t think any of them will be popular enough to upset. Instead, the last slot is likely to go to Martin Scorsese (Silence), a veteran of this category whose film peaked very late but should still manage to earn the respect of voters.

One possible crazy scenario: A well-deserved cycle of enthusiasm benefits Andrea Arnold (American Honey), whose mesmerizing film has been all but forgotten despite early praise.

Forecasted winner: It could be Jenkins, but I think it will be Chazelle.

Oscar Predictions: Best Foreign Film

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia), A War (Denmark), Mustang (France), Son of Saul (Hungary), Theeb (Jordan)

This year’s contenders: Tanna (Australia), It’s Only the End of the World (Canada), Land of Mine (Denmark), Toni Erdmann (Germany), The Salesman (Iran), The King’s Choice (Norway), Paradise (Russia), A Man Called Ove (Sweden), My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland)

The rundown: This list was winnowed down from eighty-five submissions to nine finalists, five of which will ultimately be nominated. Golden Globe winner “Elle” didn’t make this list, and neither did nominee “Neruda.” At the head of the pack are The Salesman and Toni Erdmann, and beyond that, nothing is guaranteed. I think Land of Mine is the next likeliest, and A Man Called Ove, which is already out on DVD and which I plan to see soon, could join them. For the fifth slot, I’m predicting It’s Only The End of the World over Paradise, The King’s Choice, and Tanna, but honestly I don’t know since I haven’t seen any of them. I don’t think that My Life as a Zucchini because only once in recent history has an animated contender made the cut here – “Waltz with Bashir” – and most of the time they’re reserved for selection in Best Animated Feature instead. I don’t expect to do very well in this category, but I do hope to see most of the films before the Oscars no matter what gets nominated.

One possible crazy scenario: Statistics be damned - My Life as a Zucchini earns double nominations as an animated and foreign film.

Forecasted winner: “Toni Erdmann”

Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Amy, Cartel Land, The Look of Silence, What Happened Miss Simone, Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

This year’s contenders:13th, Cameraperson, Command and Control, The Eagle Huntress, Fire at Sea, Gleason, Hooligan Sparrow, I Am Not Your Negro, The Ivory Game, Life, Animated, O.J.: Made in America, Tower, Weiner, The Witness, Zero Days

The rundown: I’ve done so well in all the other categories, but I must admit that I haven’t seen a single one of these contenders. Based on what I’ve heard, I’m counting on 13th and OJ: Made in America to lead the pack, though I can’t understand how a nearly eight-hour miniseries is eligible for this award (and I’ll have to debate how much to watch if it does get nominated). Next up is Weiner, and I’m expecting the less sensational docs Life, Animated and The Eagle Huntress to round out the list. There are a number of other solid possibilities, like Italian entry Fire at Sea, Alex GIbney’s Zero Days, Gleason, I Am Not Your Negro, Tower, or any of the other five finalists. I don’t expect to do all that well in this category, but I look forward to seeing the films that end up getting nominated.

One possible crazy scenario: The craziness here is always if a sure thing doesn’t make the cut, and this year I’d say that would be 13th, which would be a huge omission and cause plenty of controversy.

Forecasted winner: I’ll go with OJ: Made in America.

Oscar Predictions: Best Animated Feature

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Anomalisa, Boy and the World, Inside Out, Shaun the Sheep Movie, When Marnie Was There

This year’s locks: Zootopia, Moana, Kubo and the Two Strings

Very likely: My Life as a Zucchini

Possible: The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, April and the Extraordinary World, Sing, The Little Prince

Unlikely: Sausage Party, the other 12 contenders

The rundown: It’s hard to hold on to anything in this category after sure thing “The Lego Movie” was snubbed two years ago and then “The Good Dinosaur” was snubbed last year. What’s different about this year is that, from the humongous twenty-two-wide field, there aren’t that many frontrunners. In fact, there are only three films that I’d consider sue things: Zootopia, Moana, and Kubo and the Two Strings. I don’t think any of those will be snubbed because they’re so highly regarded, though I guess you never know. Foreign contender My Life as a Zucchini will likely be nominated, and I’ll bet on Studio Ghibli’s The Red Turtle to score over fifth Golden Globe nominee Sing. It’s possible that, despite early snubs, Finding Dory will defy sequel tendencies and score a nomination. Other possibilities include April and the Extraordinary World and The Little Prince. If voters are feeling like something adult, Sausage Party might just be their choice.

One possible crazy scenario: No one would ever have expected Angry Birds to be made into an Oscar-nominated film – can it happen?

Forecasted winner: I think it goes to frontrunner Zootopia.

Oscar Predictions: Best Original Song

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: “Earned It” (Fifty Shades of Grey), “’Til it Happens to You” (The Hunting Ground), “Racing Extinction” (Manta Ray), “Writing’s on the Wall” (Spectre), “Simple Song #3” (Youth)

This year’s Golden Globe nominees: “Gold” (Gold), “City of Stars” (La La Land), “How Far I’ll Go” (Moana), “Faith” (Sing), “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” (Trolls)

Other contenders: “I See Victory” (Hidden Figures), “Audition” (La La Land), “I’m Still Here” (Miss Sharon Jones), “Rules Don’t Apply” (Rules Don’t Apply), “Drive It Like You Stole It” (Sing Street), “Letter to the Free” (13th), “Try Everything” (Zootopia)

The rundown: There are 91 eligible songs this year, considerably more than last year. All five Golden Globe nominees are eligible, though it’s worth noting that you have to go back to 2004 to find a time when more than two Globe choices ended up Oscar nominees and to 1996 for an example of a five-for-five matchup. I think that trend will be bucked this year with three nominees preserved: City of Stars, a hit because of the film, How Far I’ll Go, a hit because of the people behind it, and Can’t Stop the Feeling! because it’s just so catchy and feels like it’s been around forever. I’d wager that Audition will make the cut because it makes for one pretty terrific and stirring scene, and it’s likely that, thanks to John Carney’s reputation, Drive It Like You Stole It will round out the list. Watch out for I’m Still Here or I See Victory as potential spoilers.

One possible crazy scenario: Melissa Rauch’s absurd rap that ends “The Bronze,” titled F That, wins over the voters who selected “Blame Canada” in the past.

Forecasted winner: Unless “Moana” surges, it will be City of Stars.

Oscar Predictions: Best Original Score

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Bridge of Spies, Carol, The Hateful Eight, Sicario, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

This year’s locks: La La Land, Lion

Very likely: Moonlight

Possible: Hidden Figures, Nocturnal Animals, Hacksaw Ridge, Fences, Hell or High Water, Zootopia, The BFG, Moana, Florence Foster Jenkins

Unlikely: The other 79 contenders

The rundown: There are 146 contenders in this category this year, up from last year’s already high total. The Golden Globe nominee you won’t find here is “Arrival,” which was deemed not eligible largely due to its use of a preexisting track in key moments in the film. The other four nominees are my top contenders and I’d expect them to go on to Oscar nominations, starting with La La Land and Lion, two films that seem unstoppable right now. Moonlight and Hidden Figures are also on the rise, and their music is highly acclaimed and likely to show up here. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. The BFG seems like a strong possibility because it was composed by John Williams, and big names could also help Florence Foster Jenkins, Moana, and Zootopia earn nominations. Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, and Nocturnal Animals aren’t necessarily frontrunners here, but they could easily show up.
One possible crazy scenario: Even though the score goes out of its way not to sound like “Star Wars,” two-time nominee Michael Giacchino might still earn a nomination for crowdpleaser Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.

Forecasted winner: As part of its sweep, La La Land gets this.

Oscar Predictions: Best Sound Editing

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Sicario, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

This year’s locks: Arrival

Very likely: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Sully

Possible: The Jungle Book, Hacksaw Ridge, Silence, Patriots Day, Deepwater Horizon, Passengers

Unlikely: La La Land

The rundown: This category usually matches up four for five with the Best Sound race, swapping out a nominee from a movie that actually deals with music for a more outwardly technical contender. Therefore, I’ll bet that Arrival, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, The Jungle Book, and Hacksaw Ridge will show up here, and La La Land will fall short in favor of Sully in the one race where it actually has a decent shot. Beyond that, it could be Silence, Patriots Day, Deepwater Horizon, Passengers, or any one of a number of other contenders.

One possible crazy scenario: It isn’t expected to show up anymore after poor reviews, but Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk might surprise here with a nomination for one of its technical elements.

Forecasted winner: I think this goes to Arrival.

Oscar Predictions: Best Sound

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Bridge of Spies, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, Sicario, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

This year’s locks: La La Land

Very likely: Arrival, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Possible: The Jungle Book, Hacksaw Ridge, Sully, Hell or High Water, Deadpool, Silence, Patriots Day, Moana, Deepwater Horizon, Passengers, Zootopia

Unlikely: So many others

The rundown: This category seems somewhat straightforward this year, but I know that’s rarely the case. La La Land is a sure thing, and I’d bet that both Arrival and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will contend here. The Jungle Book seems strong but could be forgotten in the Oscar conversation since it came out so long ago. Even if it doesn’t score in the top races, Hacksaw Ridge should do well technically, and I think it will edge out others likeSully, Hell or High Water, Silence, and Patriots Day, and tech-centric contenders like Deadpool, Deepwater Horizon, and Passengers. It could also be an animated film like Moana or Zootopia.

One possible crazy scenario: One of this year’s top two dramas - Manchester by the Sea or Moonlight - shows up here even though it’s highly unlikely.

Forecasted winner: It’s going to be La La Land.

Oscar Predictions: Best Visual Effects

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Ex Machina, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

This year’s locks: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Arrival

Very likely: The Jungle Book

Possible: Kubo and the Two Strings, Captain America: Civil War, Doctor Strange, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Unlikely: Passengers, The BFG, Deepwater Horizon

The rundown: We have a better idea here that in most races because the list has already been winnowed down to ten finalists. Last year, with franchise films as half the finalist list, only two made the cut. We also got a great surprise in the least technical film as the winner. This is one place where Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is sure to show up, and it will definitely be joined by Arrival. Beyond that, I’d give the edge to The Jungle Book, Kubo and the Two Strings (it would be the first animated film here since 1993), and Captain America: Civil War. It might also be Doctor Strange or Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. I can’t imagine that The BFG or Deepwater Horizon will muster enough support against these other contenders, and I think that Passengers will also find itself left out.

Forecasted winner: After last year, who knows? I’ll go with The Jungle Book but it depends on what else is nominated.

Oscar Predictions: Best Makeup and Hairstyling

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

This year’s locks: Deadpool, Florence Foster Jenkins

Very likely: None

Possible: Hail Caesar, A Man Called Ove, The Dressmaker, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad

The rundown: There’s less mystery to this category since the field has already been narrowed down to seven contenders, three of which will be nominated. This category has often surprised with nominees like “Norbit” and “Il Divo,” and last year’s “The 100-Year-Old-Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared, while sure things like “Hugo,” “Lincoln,” and “American Hustle” have been snubbed in the past. Interestingly, unlike all the other technical categories this year, this race contains only one Best Picture contender – a very distant one - Deadpool, which is all but certain to place here. Florence Foster Jenkins and Hail Caesar seem like the easy choices for slots two and three, but things are rarely that simple. Foreign contender A Man Called Ove might surprise, as could The Dressmaker. I wouldn’t count on Star Trek Beyond since “Star Trek Into Darkness” didn’t make the cut, though of course that doesn’t mean much, and I don’t feel like Suicide Squad is regarded highly enough to earn votes, even in this race.

Forecasted winner: It’s crazy to say it, but I think it might be Deadpool.

Oscar Predictions: Best Film Editing

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

This year’s locks: La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea

Very likely: Hell or High Water

Possible: Arrival, Lion, Hacksaw Ridge, Sully, Fences

Unlikely: Silence, Deadpool

The rundown: Two years ago, eventual Best Picture winner “Birdman” was snubbed here, and even though I predicted it wouldn’t be, last year’s winner “Spotlight” was. All five of ACE Eddie nominees for drama - Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, Hell or High Water, Arrival, and Hacksaw Ridge - could easily be nominated. You just need room for comedy frontrunner La La Land. I can’t imagine it would actually happen, but comedy nominee Deadpool could make the cut here since the editing is one of its strongest and most defining parts. Not nominated for Eddies are the likes of Sully, Fences and Silence, and one film that may well end up here given the recent love for the film: Lion.

One possible crazy scenario: It’s an Eddie nominee for comedy, but what a cool choice The Lobster, a truly unlikely inclusion here, would be.

Forecasted winner: This will probably be part of the La La Land sweep.

Oscar Predictions: Best Costume Design

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Carol, Cinderella, The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant

This year’s locks: Jackie, La La Land

Very likely: Hidden Figures, Florence Foster Jenkins

Possible: Hail Caesar, The Handmaiden, Silence, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, Doctor Strange

Unlikely: Plenty of others, I’m sure!

The rundown: Like the Art Directors Guild, the Costume Designers Guild separates its nominees into three categories: contemporary, period, and fantasy. The last two are more important to take seriously. The important exception, of course, is La La Land, which earned a contemporary nomination and is sure to place here. From the period section, Jackie, Hidden Figures, and Florence Foster Jenkins are all very likely, with Hail Caesar and The Dressmaker also possible. Three fantasy films could show up - Doctor Strange, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, and Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, and I’m less confident about Kubo and the Two Strings, which made history as the first animated film to earn a CDG nod, and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which is unlikely since only the first “Star Wars” film was nominated in this category, though it did win. Watch out for two CDG snubs, Silence and The Handmaiden, both of which are sure to earn votes.

One possible crazy scenario: I’m picturing the red suit that Viggo Mortensen wears in Captain Fantastic and wondering how many people are going to vote for it just based on that. It would be a fun choice!

Forecasted winner: This one probably goes to Jackie.

Oscar Predictions: Best Art Direction

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Bridge of Spies, The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant

This year’s locks: La La Land

Very likely: Jackie, Arrival

Possible: Fences, Lion, Hail Caesar, Silence, Nocturnal Animals, Hell or High Water, Hacksaw Ridge, Florence Foster Jenkins, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Doctor Strange

Unlikely: Others, I’m sure!

The rundown: Translating what these nominees will be from the Art Directors Guild list is tough since there are three separate categories there – contemporary, period, and fantasy – and just one here. There are also a few contenders that didn’t make the cut with ADG, namely “Silence” and “Florence Foster Jenkins,” that might garner votes. La La Land is the surest thing, and both Jackie and Arrival should have no trouble getting in as well. Beyond that, it’s a question of whether Fences and Lion can trump the likes of Hail Caesar, Doctor Strange, orFantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, or if more standard non-genre fare like Nocturnal Animals, Hell or High Water, or Hacksaw Ridge get in ahead of them. I’m not sure what to expect here and I imagine there are other contenders I haven’t listed here.

One possible crazy scenario: It could well get in even though this probably the second unlikeliest place for the very popular Moonlight to show up.

Forecasted winner: This should go to La La Land.

Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Carol, The Hateful Eight, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Sicario

This year’s locks: Moonlight, Arrival, La La Land

Very likely: Lion

Possible: Hell or High Water, Silence, Jackie, Nocturnal Animals

Unlikely: Live By Night, Sully

The rundown: This category usually matches up 4/5 with the American Society of Cinematographers list, though in some years, like 2002 and 2007, the list corresponds exactly. I’m predicting 4/5 again this year, with Moonlight, Arrival, La La Land, and Lion feeling like good bets for a number of reasons. IT also happens that they’re all DGA-nominated and surefire Best Picture nominees, with “Manchester by the Sea” the only one that isn’t really a contender here, though it is well done. I’m thinking that Silence will just miss in favor of the incredible Hell or High Water, though I’m not entirely confident about that production. Jackie and Nocturnal Animals are certainly threats too, while Live By Night isn’t likely to show up. The same is sadly true of Sully, which deserves plenty of recognition but doesn’t seem to be showing up anywhere.

One possible crazy scenario: I remember thinking that I would love for it to be nominated while watching it, but I can’t imagine that American Honey can muster up the support it needs to make the cut here.

Forecasted winner: I feel like Arrival might actually be able to topple “La La Land” here, but who knows?

Movie with Abe: Alone in Berlin

Alone in Berlin
Directed by Vincent Perez
Released January 13, 2017

One of the most common retrospective statements about the rise of Nazi Germany and the Holocaust is that one of the main reasons it was able to happen was that so many let it. The subject of many films related to the era have to do with instances of individual resistance, ranging from solitary representative actions to directly saving many lives. “Alone in Berlin,” one of the first official releases of the year, tells one story about the former, highlighting a couple that found it necessary to do something to show the public the evil going on around them.

Otto Quangel (Brendan Gleeson) is a factory worker married to Anna (Emma Thompson) in 1940 Berlin. He and his wife receive the devastating news that their son has been killed while away at war. Something changes in Otto as a result, and he begins to write postcards that he leaves on the steps of buildings and around Berlin decrying the Fuhrer as a liar and exposing the Nazi party for what it really is. A dogged investigator (Daniel Bruhl) is assigned to the case, and he begins to track Otto as his activities increase and he goes even further to spread his message.

The themes present in “Alone in Berlin” could not be more relevant today. There is a mesmerizing quiet intensity to just placing a letter on a stair that goes against what’s popularly known and spoken about, for one random person to happen upon and read. It’s such a simple act of rebellion long before the internet age, which would surely explode now as a tweet read all around the world. The difference is that Otto has no idea who will read his message, but he feels that it is necessary to speak up, something that those around him are too scared or otherwise unwilling to do.

Gleeson and Thompson are both highly-acclaimed actors, and their interest in this project makes complete sense. While its story is compelling, the film’s construction and pacing don’t match its quality at all. The admittedly engaging and meaningful premise doesn’t really come to life in a purposely dreary setting without much energy. As a drama, the film is dry, and as a thriller, it doesn’t excite nearly as much as it should. Still, it’s a worthwhile subject, and this is far from a bad movie even if it’s not the most enthralling.

B-

Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: The Big Short, Brooklyn, Carol, The Martian, Room

This year’s locks: Moonlight, Fences, Lion, Arrival

Very likely: Hidden Figures

Possible: Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Deadpool

Unlikely: Sully, Silence

The rundown: Two of these possibilities - Moonlight and Loving - were nominated as original screenplays by the WGA. The former is a sure thing, though I’m less and less convinced about the latter, which I think will just miss. Fences and Arrival are both looking good for recognition here after PGA nominations despite missing out on the Best Picture race at the Golden Globes, and Lion wasn’t eligible for the WGA but won’t have a problem scoring here. Hidden Figures seems to be on fire right now, so I’d give this the edge over Nocturnal Animals, which was nominated for a Globe for Best Screenplay. It’s hard to imagine Deadpool being Oscar-nominated, and most of the WGA’s eccentric choices haven’t played out in years past, though “Borat” did end up with a mention in this category. The love has been totally absent for Sully so I wouldn’t count on it to break through here, and ditto Silence, though it’s possible.

One possible crazy scenario: I suppose it’s not that crazy, but Pedro Almodovar’s Julieta hasn’t been doing all that well in the awards race, missing the finalist list for Best Foreign Film, and it could feasibly show up here for a rare adaptation by the auteur.

Forecasted winner: This will go to Moonlight.