This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.
Last year’s nominees: The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
This year’s locks: La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea
Very likely: Hell or High Water
Possible: Arrival, Lion, Hacksaw Ridge, Sully, Fences
Unlikely: Silence, Deadpool
The rundown: Two years ago, eventual Best Picture winner “Birdman” was snubbed here, and even though I predicted it wouldn’t be, last year’s winner “Spotlight” was. All five of ACE Eddie nominees for drama - Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, Hell or High Water, Arrival, and Hacksaw Ridge - could easily be nominated. You just need room for comedy frontrunner La La Land. I can’t imagine it would actually happen, but comedy nominee Deadpool could make the cut here since the editing is one of its strongest and most defining parts. Not nominated for Eddies are the likes of Sully, Fences and Silence, and one film that may well end up here given the recent love for the film: Lion.
One possible crazy scenario: It’s an Eddie nominee for comedy, but what a cool choice The Lobster, a truly unlikely inclusion here, would be.
Forecasted winner: This will probably be part of the La La Land sweep.