This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.
Last year’s nominees: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Sicario, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
This year’s locks: Arrival
Very likely: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Sully
Possible: The Jungle Book, Hacksaw Ridge, Silence, Patriots Day, Deepwater Horizon, Passengers
Unlikely: La La Land
The rundown: This category usually matches up four for five with the Best Sound race, swapping out a nominee from a movie that actually deals with music for a more outwardly technical contender. Therefore, I’ll bet that Arrival, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, The Jungle Book, and Hacksaw Ridge will show up here, and La La Land will fall short in favor of Sully in the one race where it actually has a decent shot. Beyond that, it could be Silence, Patriots Day, Deepwater Horizon, Passengers, or any one of a number of other contenders.
One possible crazy scenario: It isn’t expected to show up anymore after poor reviews, but Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk might surprise here with a nomination for one of its technical elements.
Forecasted winner: I think this goes to Arrival.