This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.
Last year’s nominees: Bridge of Spies, The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant
This year’s locks: La La Land
Very likely: Jackie, Arrival
Possible: Fences, Lion, Hail Caesar, Silence, Nocturnal Animals, Hell or High Water, Hacksaw Ridge, Florence Foster Jenkins, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Doctor Strange
Unlikely: Others, I’m sure!
The rundown: Translating what these nominees will be from the Art Directors Guild list is tough since there are three separate categories there – contemporary, period, and fantasy – and just one here. There are also a few contenders that didn’t make the cut with ADG, namely “Silence” and “Florence Foster Jenkins,” that might garner votes. La La Land is the surest thing, and both Jackie and Arrival should have no trouble getting in as well. Beyond that, it’s a question of whether Fences and Lion can trump the likes of Hail Caesar, Doctor Strange, orFantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, or if more standard non-genre fare like Nocturnal Animals, Hell or High Water, or Hacksaw Ridge get in ahead of them. I’m not sure what to expect here and I imagine there are other contenders I haven’t listed here.
One possible crazy scenario: It could well get in even though this probably the second unlikeliest place for the very popular Moonlight to show up.
Forecasted winner: This should go to La La Land.