This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.
Last year’s nominees: Carol, The Hateful Eight, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Sicario
This year’s locks: Moonlight, Arrival, La La Land
Very likely: Lion
Possible: Hell or High Water, Silence, Jackie, Nocturnal Animals
Unlikely: Live By Night, Sully
The rundown: This category usually matches up 4/5 with the American Society of Cinematographers list, though in some years, like 2002 and 2007, the list corresponds exactly. I’m predicting 4/5 again this year, with Moonlight, Arrival, La La Land, and Lion feeling like good bets for a number of reasons. IT also happens that they’re all DGA-nominated and surefire Best Picture nominees, with “Manchester by the Sea” the only one that isn’t really a contender here, though it is well done. I’m thinking that Silence will just miss in favor of the incredible Hell or High Water, though I’m not entirely confident about that production. Jackie and Nocturnal Animals are certainly threats too, while Live By Night isn’t likely to show up. The same is sadly true of Sully, which deserves plenty of recognition but doesn’t seem to be showing up anywhere.
One possible crazy scenario: I remember thinking that I would love for it to be nominated while watching it, but I can’t imagine that American Honey can muster up the support it needs to make the cut here.
Forecasted winner: I feel like Arrival might actually be able to topple “La La Land” here, but who knows?