This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.
Last year’s nominees: Bridge of Spies, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, Sicario, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
This year’s locks: La La Land
Very likely: Arrival, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Possible: The Jungle Book, Hacksaw Ridge, Sully, Hell or High Water, Deadpool, Silence, Patriots Day, Moana, Deepwater Horizon, Passengers, Zootopia
Unlikely: So many others
The rundown: This category seems somewhat straightforward this year, but I know that’s rarely the case. La La Land is a sure thing, and I’d bet that both Arrival and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will contend here. The Jungle Book seems strong but could be forgotten in the Oscar conversation since it came out so long ago. Even if it doesn’t score in the top races, Hacksaw Ridge should do well technically, and I think it will edge out others likeSully, Hell or High Water, Silence, and Patriots Day, and tech-centric contenders like Deadpool, Deepwater Horizon, and Passengers. It could also be an animated film like Moana or Zootopia.
One possible crazy scenario: One of this year’s top two dramas - Manchester by the Sea or Moonlight - shows up here even though it’s highly unlikely.
Forecasted winner: It’s going to be La La Land.