Friday, November 25, 2011

Golden Globe Musings: Best Motion Picture – Drama

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

In the midst of making my predictions, I’ve read conflicting reports that make me think that The Descendants and The Help might end up here, and The Artist could too. For the sake of consistency, I’m going to continue predicting with those three in the comedy race, and in my final predictions, I’ll revisit that and make a final choice. At the forefront of this race is The Ides of March, a film that probably won’t make it all the way to the Oscars but should do just fine here. Moneyball is a strong bet, and so is Clint Eastwood’s J. Edgar. Without knowing how it will be received, I’m not positive about the chances for Steven Spielberg’s War Horse, but I think it will find a place here. Beyond that, the race is wide open, with some independent dramas like Shame and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy fending off more mainstream releases like Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and We Bought a Zoo. Ralph Fiennes’ Coriolanus and The Tree of Life are also in the mix. For the final slot, however, I’ll predict A Dangerous Method, considering that, despite little support in other races, David Cronenberg’s last two films, A History of Violence and Eastern Promises, both found themselves here.

Current predictions:
A Dangerous Method
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
War Horse

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