Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Final SAG Predictions

I’ve been sharing my predictions for each of the five categories of the SAG Awards over the past few days, and understandably my predictions haven’t changed since then. That said, I know exactly where I stand with these predictions. I’m least confident about Swank, Kendrick, and all of the Best Ensemble predictions. Last year, the SAG nominations were when Robert Redford first got snubbed and “The Butler” and Oprah still seemed like Oscar sure things before being omitted a day later with the Golden Globe nominations announcement. Where it used to be that eventual Oscar nominees like Demian Bichir or Richard Jenkins would first be recognized by SAG after getting no Globe love, the Oscar race has now become the first place for actors like Quvenzhane Wallis and Emmanuelle Riva, while Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Leonardo DiCaprio, Bradley Cooper, and Sally Hawkins all catapulted straight from the Globes to the Oscars, skipping SAG. On top of that, earning a Golden Globe nod and a SAG nod doesn’t guarantee an Oscar nomination more and more, as proven by Tom Hanks, Emma Thompson, and Daniel Bruhl last year.

Of course, the main thing to remember is that history is just history, and anything can change in a given year. The real thing to look for here is what film will make a surprise showing – “Into the Woods,” for instance, could place in a bunch of categories, or maybe “A Most Violent Year” – and what “sure thing” contenders will be left out. Check back here tomorrow morning for reactions on the hour by category. TV predictions are up over at TV with Abe.

No guts, no glory:
“Guardians of the Galaxy” for Best Ensemble

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
David Oyelowo (Selma)
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Hilary Swank (The Homesman)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Robert Duvall (The Judge)
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
Edward Norton (Birdman)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
Anna Kendrick (Into the Woods)
Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
Emma Stone (Birdman)

Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods

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