Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Oscar Nominees: Best Foreign Film

My predictions: 4/5, missing “The Milk of Sorrow”
My ballot: 2/5, and they’re the only ones out of these that I’ve seen
The nominees: Ajami, The Milk of Sorrow, The Secret of Her Eyes, A Prophet, The White Ribbon

I gave this category my best shot despite having only seen two of the films, and I did pretty well. The Israeli entry, “Ajami,” is opening tomorrow at Film Forum, while the Argentinean entry won’t be out until April, and I don’t know about the submission from Peru. “The White Ribbon” is already in theatres, and “A Prophet” comes out in three weeks. I’m looking forward to the other three and hope to see them as soon as I can. This year marks the third consecutive nomination for Israel. France has won this award nine times, Germany has won three times, and Argentina has won once.

My current bet to win: The White Ribbon

Oscar Nominees: Best Visual Effects

My predictions: 3/3
My ballot: All 3
The nominees: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek

We have here our three expected nominees, and what’s interesting about them beyond the fact that they are all visually incredible is that two Best Picture nominees are represented in this category, with the third nominee here likely having just missed the cut. This isn’t really a race since this is the one place where the soon-to-be-highest-grossing-movie-ever has to win.

My current bet to win: Avatar

Oscar Nominees: Best Makeup

My predictions: 1/3, picking only “Star Trek
My ballot: 1/5
The nominees: Il Divo, Star Trek, The Young Victoria

This tiny little category was perhaps the most surprising of all, though not in a terribly interesting way. “District 9” didn’t make the cut, and neither did “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus,” which did get recognized in other technical categories. The nomination for “The Young Victoria” does make sense, though I’m much more surprised about “Il Divo,” the story of an Italian prime minister that was likely much less showy than the two fantastical films I had predicted to get in. I haven’t seen it, though; have you?

My current bet to win: The Young Victoria

Oscar Nominees: Best Sound Editing

My predictions: 4/5, missing “Inglourious Basterds
My ballot: 2/5
The nominees: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Star Trek, Up

Just like in the sound effects category, “District 9” was replaced by “Inglourious Basterds,” while “Up” managed to get in here. I have nothing more to add other than to mention that all five of these films definitely sounded really great. It’s a mere guess that if “Avatar” takes Best Sound, “The Hurt Locker” might take this category, which has favored films like “Letters from Iwo Jima” and “The Bourne Ultimatum” in recent years.

My current bet to win: The Hurt Locker

Oscar Nominees: Best Sound

My predictions: 3/5, missing “Inglourious Basterds” and “Transformers”
My ballot: 2/5
The nominees: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Star Trek, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

It seems that the sound effects from “District 9” failed to impress voters while “Inglourious Basterds” did. My guess about “Transformers 2” not making it in only panned out in the other sound category, and it’s the only film here that I haven’t seen. I imagine this will just be a battle to the death between “Avatar" and “The Hurt Locker.”

My current bet to win: Avatar

Oscar Nominees: Best Original Song

My predictions: 3/5, missing the second “Princess and the Frog” second and the one from “Paris 36” (along with every other prognosticator in the universe)
My ballot: 1/5
The nominees: “The Weary Kind” (Crazy Heart), “Take It All” (Nine), “Loin de Paname” (Paris 36), “Almost There” (The Princess and the Frog), “Down in New Orleans” (The Princess and the Frog)

This category brings a number of interesting surprises. Only one of the Golden Globe nominees is preserved, and that was the winner, breaking the five-year curse that had been in place. Out are Paul McCartney and Bono, and in are two tunes from Disney’s “The Princess and the Frog,” which are decent but hardly anything worthy of comparison to Disney songs from fifteen or twenty years ago. The less loud and showy original song from “Nine” made the cut while the other one didn’t, which is interesting. The final nominee comes from completely out of nowhere, picking a melody from an obscure French film that, in my opinion, isn’t terribly great and certainly not worthy of taking away a prospective nominee like “I See You” from “Avatar.” This lineup does mean that T-Bone should prepare another speech since he’ll likely win this race easily.

My current bet to win: “The Weary Kind”

Oscar Nominees: Best Original Score

My predictions: 3/5, missing “Fantastic Mr. Fox” and “The Hurt Locker
My ballot: 0/5 (but “Up” comes close)
The nominees: Avatar, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Hurt Locker, Sherlock Holmes, Up

The nomination for the upbeat score from “Fantastic Mr. Fox” and French composer Alexandre Desplat (his third in four years) wasn’t too unexpected though I didn’t predict it, but the inclusion of “The Hurt Locker” is. I didn’t even remember the film having a score, but it turns out it did, and from the bits I’ve been listening to on YouTube, it’s quite good. Regarding missing films here, it’s a real shame that both “A Single Man” and “A Serious Man” weren’t included, and a bit surprising that “Star Trek” didn’t make the cut.

My current bet to win: Up

Oscar Nominees: Best Film Editing

My predictions: 4/5, missing “Precious
My ballot: 3/5
The nominees: Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious

Some expected and unexpected occurrences in this category: “Inglourious Basterds” was able to overcome its ACE snub and make it in, “500 Days of Summer” did not, and in a fairly notable surprise, “Precious” made it in over “Up in the Air.” All five films here are nominated for Best Picture. The chances of “Up in the Air” winning Best Picture have just decreased considerably now with its omission here, since every Best Picture winner back to 1981 has been nominated in this category.

My current bet to win: The Hurt Locker

Oscar Nominees: Best Costume Design

My predictions: 3/5, missing “Coco Before Chanel” and “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
My ballot: 3/5
The nominees: Bright Star, Coco Before Chanel, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, The Young Victoria

Here we have one of only two technical categories in which “Avatar” is not nominated (and wouldn't have been), allowing several lone nominees to break through, including one-time Best Picture contender “Bright Star” and the French film “Coco Before Chanel.” All of these wardrobe achievements are period pieces, and the extravagance of the latter three (alphabetically) should put those three ahead in this very contested race.

My current bet to win: The Young Victoria

Oscar Nominees: Best Art Direction

My predictions: 2/5, picking only “Avatar” and “Nine
My ballot: 2/5
The nominees: Avatar, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, Sherlock Holmes, The Young Victoria

This is where this year’s biggest musical did manage to get recognized, along with three other films that seemed more likely in other categories and one planet-scale lock. All five of these movies are quite mesmerizing and intriguing, and all deserve to be here.

My current bet to win: Avatar

Oscar Nominees: Best Cinematography

My predictions: 4/5, missing “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince”
My ballot: 2/5
The nominees: Avatar, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The White Ribbon

From out of nowhere comes the first Harry Potter to ever score a nomination in this category, thanks to cinematographer Bruno Delbonnel, previously nominated for Jean-Pierre Jeunet’s French films “Amelie” and “A Very Long Engagement.” It’s not really replacing anything, considering the fact that “Nine” wasn’t expected to do very well, and didn’t really, earning only four nominations. The other four films here (I haven’t seen the sixth Harry Potter) are all dazzling to look at and deserve very much to be here, and it’s a worthwhile race to follow.

My current bet to win: Avatar

Oscar Nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay

My predictions: 4/5, missing “In the Loop
My ballot: 4/5
The nominees: District 9, An Education, In the Loop, Precious, Up in the Air

The mysterious fifth slot here goes to the best adapted screenplay of the year, in my opinion, and a very fun choice. The other four are all Best Picture nominees, and the omission of “The Blind Side” makes it the only Best Picture contender without a corresponding screenplay nod (or directing nod, in the case of “Avatar”).

My current bet to win: Up in the Air

Oscar Nominees: Best Original Screenplay

My predictions: 4/5, missing “The Messenger
My ballot: 2/5
The nominees: The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The Messenger, A Serious Man, Up

So it turns out that those Globe-nominated comedies and box-office successes like “500 Days of Summer” and ‘The Hangover” couldn’t make it into this category, and instead they’re edged out by a tiny, tiny indie instead of what will become, by the end of the week, the highest-grossing film ever in the United States. Don’t worry about the Best Picture chances for “Avatar” being diminished, however, since “Titanic” won the big prize without a nomination in this category. Critics of the story in the big-budget sci-fi epic will likely be happy that it’s not here. In any case, this is one fantastic lineup of nominees representing some fascinating original stories.

My current bet to win: Inglourious Basterds

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 4/5, missing Gyllenhaal
My ballot: 2/5
The nominees: Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Mo’Nique (Precious)

Penelope Cruz managed not to get left out, but this category still gives us one of the biggest surprises: Maggie Gyllenhaal for her supporting work opposite Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart.” I’m very sad that her inclusion has to come at the expense of Julianne Moore, whose wonderful work in “A Single Man” now goes unrecognized by Oscar, leaving that film with only one nomination for the terrific Colin Firth. It’s also a pity that Melanie Laurent couldn’t make it in, but at least both ladies from “Up in the Air” did, which makes me happy.

My current bet to win: Mo’Nique

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 5/5
My ballot: 2/5
The nominees: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Chistoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

A pretty cool list of nominees here, keeping in Matt Damon despite doubts from a number of people. This is a pretty great list, recognizing two long-working actors with their first nominations (Plummer and Tucci), and one performer who has most certainly arrived internationally after this year (Waltz). No one too notable missing here.

My current bet to win: Waltz

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 5/5
My ballot: 2/5
The nominees: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

No surprises here either, duplicating the SAG list. I have nothing more to say that I haven’t already said before about the Globes or the SAGs, save for the fact that the Best Picture nomination for “The Blind Side” means that Bullock’s chances just got a whole lot better.

My current bet to win: Bullock

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Leading Role

My predictions: 5/5
My ballot: 4/5
The nominees: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

No surprises here, as SAG’s five picks make the cut here, and easily the most solid Best Actor lineup in a number of years. I’m very happy.

My current bet to win: Bridges

Monday, February 1, 2010

Final Oscar Predictions

Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning at 8:30am. Below are my final predictions; please click on the category headings to read analysis. I’m not sure I have anything more to add, though I’m hopeful that “A Single Man” will do much better than I’m predicting. It would be nice to see a few fun surprises, but for the first time, I’m holding back and really only predicting the expected nominees. That may be a mistake, but we’ll have to see. Also, I have a sneaky feeling that "The Road" may pop up somewhere, though that same feeling about "Defiance" didn't pan out last year. Please offer any thoughts in the comments, and check back all day tomorrow for reactions to the nominees.

No guts, no glory:
Tilda Swinton for Best Actress
Where the Wild Things Are” nominated for Best Picture
A Single Man” nominated for Best Picture

Final Predictions:

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" By Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up In The Air

Best Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
George Clooney (Up in the Air)
Colin Firth (A Single Man)
Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

Best Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
Helen Mirren (The Last Station)
Carey Mulligan (An Education)
Gabourey Sidibe (Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" By Sapphire)
Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

Best Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role

Matt Damon (Invictus)
Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)
Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

Best Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Penelope Cruz (Nine)
Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)
Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
Mo'Nique (Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" By Sapphire)
Julianne Moore (A Single Man)

Best Achievement In Directing
Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
James Cameron (Avatar)
Clint Eastwood (Invictus)
Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

Best Writing, Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
An Education
District 9
Julie & Julia
Precious
Up In The Air

Best Achievement In Cinematography
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
The White Ribbon

Best Achievement In Art Direction
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
A Single Man
Where the Wild Things Are

Best Achievement In Costume Design
Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

Best Achievement In Editing
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up In the Air

Best Achievement In Music Written For Motion Pictures, Original Score
Avatar
The Informant!
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek
Up

Best Achievement In Music Written For Motion Pictures, Original Song

“I See You” (Avatar)
“The Weary Kind” (Crazy Heart)
“Cinema Italiano” (Nine)
“Take It All” (Nine) (4th nominee)
“Almost There” (The Princess and the Frog) (5th nominee)

Best Achievement In Sound
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Up

Best Achievement In Sound Editing
Avatar
District
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Up

Best Achievement In Makeup
District 9
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Star Trek

Best Achievement In Visual Effects
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

Best Documentary, Features
The Beaches of Agnes
The Cove
Food, Inc.
Soundtrack for a Revolution
Under Our Skin

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
Ajami
A Prophet
Samson & Delilah
The Secret of Her Eyes
The White Ribbon

Best Animated Feature Film of The Year

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up

Best Films of 2009

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announces their choices for the best in film of 2009 tomorrow. Come back then for full coverage of all the nominees, but in the meantime, peruse the already-announced categories of the AFT Awards, my choices for the best of the year, and watch this video I made of the 43 best films of the year.

Home Video: The Ugly Truth

The Ugly Truth
Directed by Robert Luketic
Released July 24, 2009

Sometimes it’s hard to believe how awful a film is. But with a title that has the word “ugly” plastered right out on its cover, it’s not that much of a surprise. Jokes are often made about a title standing in for the nature of a movie, and that’s never been truer here. The ugly truth, as it turns out, is that it’s possible to make a horribly unfunny, awkward, uninteresting, and altogether boring romantic comedy with two leads who have both demonstrated in the past that they have possess the abilities to act decently but seem to have lost any shred of talent in their loose preparation for their roles in this film. But perhaps that’s being too kind, and more severe judgment must be passed on this failure of a film.

Don’t be fooled by the clever teaser poster for “The Ugly Truth,” which showed twin silhouettes of a man and a woman with a heart displayed on the woman’s head and the man’s genital region. Because the truth about men and women and their nature is apparently so obvious, the film goes to extra lengths to prove that reality, creating pointless and inane situations to demonstrate just how true it is. What’s even more shameful is that it isn’t even hidden – the man (Gerard Butler) errs his viewpoints on a live television talk show, and the woman (Katherine Heigl) challenges his chauvinistic sentiments by shouting her doubts right in his face.

Where “The Ugly Truth” fails in the most astonishing way is its inability to conjure up a single funny line. The subject matter, however prickly and tread-over, is certainly ripe for some crude humor, but this film can’t find any of that. Worse still, it’s hopelessly subdued and seemingly censored for its first half, and once it finally takes the plunge into lewd territory, it doesn’t look back, but it also doesn’t get any funnier. Underneath the attempts at crafting a disdainfully inappropriate and unreserved R-rated comedy is a devastatingly familiar, dumbed-down romantic comedy that doesn’t contain anything remotely fresh or fun. The sheer amount of talent wasted in this project – Butler, Heigl, and supporting actors like Cheryl Hines, John Michael Higgins, and Bonnie Somerville – is especially regrettable, but hey, that’s the ugly truth. This movie certainly drives that adage home.

F