Oscar Predictions: Best Animated Feature

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 14th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Big Hero 6, The Boxtrolls, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Song of the Sea, The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

This year’s locks: Inside Out

Very likely: Anomalisa, The Good Dinosaur

Possible: Shaun the Sheep Movie, Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet, The Peanuts Movie, When Marnie Was There, Minions, Boy and the World

Unlikely: Home, Hotel Transylvania 2, The SpongeBob Squarepants Movie: Sponge Out of Water, Moomins on the Riviera, The Boy and the Beast, The Laws of the Universe – Part 0

The rundown: It’s hard to hold on to anything in this category after sure thing The Lego Movie was snubbed. Still, there’s no way that Inside Out is getting left off, and I don’t really see Anomalisa being cast off either. I wouldn’t bet against The Good Dinosaur, but I think things get trickier after that. The Golden Globe list and the Annie Award nominees for Best Feature included The Peanuts Movie and Shaun the Sheep Movie. The Producers Guild of America swapped out the latter for Minions. The likeliest of the other nine eligible films to show up are Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet, When Marnie Was There, and Boy and the World. In 2011, 2013, and 2014, we got too such more eclectic nominees, but in 2012, we got none, with “The Pirates! Band of Misfits” taking the fifth spot. I’m betting that “The Peanuts Movie,” the one Globe contender I haven’t seen, will miss out in favor of one of the other three.

One possible crazy scenario: The peculiar adaptation of a Finnish cartoon that I had the chance to screen, Moomins on the Riviera, earns a nomination.

Forecasted winner: How could it not be Inside Out?

Oscar Predictions: Best Original Song

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 14th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: “Lost Stars” (Begin Again), “Grateful” (Beyond the Lights), “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” (Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me), “Everything Is Awesome” (The Lego Movie), “Glory” (Selma)

This year’s Golden Globe nominees: “Love Me Like You Do” (Fifty Shades of Grey), “See You Again” (Furious 7), “One Kind of Love” (Love and Mercy), “Writing’s on the Wall” (Spectre), “Simple Song #3” (Youth)

Other contenders: “Pray 4 My City” (Chi-Raq), “Hey Baby Doll” (Danny Collins), “Dreamsong” (Diary of a Teenage Girl), “’Til it Happens to You” (The Hunting Ground), “I’ll See You in My Dreams” (I’ll See You in My Dreams), “Phenomenal” (Southpaw)

The rundown: There are 74 eligible songs this year. Golden Globe nominee “One Kind of Love” isn’t eligible, so count that one out. I feel like I haven’t listened to my annual playlist of the contenders as faithfully as I usually do, so I’m at a bit of a loss. The films and song titles pictured above are the ones I’ve heard most about, but I don’t have too much confidence in this race, so don’t hedge your bets on this one.

One possible crazy scenario: Any one of the seven eligible songs from “Salt Bridge” makes the cut.

Forecasted winner: I think See You Again takes it for the sentimental factor.

Oscar Predictions: Best Original Score

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 14th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Interstellar, Mr. Turner, The Theory of Everything

This year’s locks: Carol, The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight

Very likely: None

Possible: Bridge of Spies, Spotlight, Brooklyn, Steve Jobs, Sicario, The Martian, Inside Out, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Unlikely: The other 111 contenders

The rundown: A whopping 122 scores are officially eligible in this category this year. The only one of note that’s missing is Golden Globe nominee “The Revenant.” The other Globe honorees should be top contenders: Carol, The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight, and Steve Jobs. Other films likely to bump any of them out are Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Inside Out, The Martian, Sicario, and Spotlight. It would be fun for Star Wars: The Force Awakens to be included here, earning John Williams his record-setting forty-fifth nomination and his first since “Return of the Jedi” for a Star Wars film. I’m not sure it will happen, but it’s certainly possible.
One possible crazy scenario: Thomas Newman scores a bid for Spectre, earning James Bond his second-ever mention in this category.
Forecasted winner: I think this goes to The Hateful Eight.

Oscar Predictions: Best Costume Design

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 14th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: The Grand Budapest Hotel, Inherent Vice, Into the Woods, Maleficent, Mr. Turner

This year’s locks: Carol, The Danish Girl

Very likely: Brooklyn

Possible: Trumbo, The Hateful Eight, Joy, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Cinderella, Beasts of No Nation

Unlikely: Plenty of others, I’m sure!

The rundown: Like the Art Directors Guild, the Costume Designers Guild separates its nominees, announced last Thursday, into three categories: contemporary, period, and fantasy. The last two are more important to take seriously. From the period section, I think Brooklyn, Carol, The Danish Girl, and Trumbo could well represent four out of five of our nominees here. From fantasy, Cinderella could represent contenders that won’t show up in other races, while Mad Max: Fury Road is likely to be honored here along with its many other accolades. From the contemporary field, Joy and Beasts of No Nation would both be cool inclusions. Both The Revenant and The Hateful Eight didn’t make the cut with the CDG and could show up here anyway.

One possible crazy scenario: Star Wars: The Force Awakens becomes the first film in its series since the original took home this award in 1977 to be nominated here.

Forecasted winner: I think that The Danish Girl gets this.

Oscar Predictions: Best Art Direction

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 14th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Interstellar, Into the Woods, Mr. Turner

This year’s locks: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant

Very likely: Carol, The Danish Girl

Possible: Brooklyn, Bridge of Spies, Trumbo, Sicario, The Martian

Unlikely: Joy, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Room

The rundown: Translating what these nominees will be from the Art Directors Guild list is tough since there are three separate categories there – contemporary, period, and fantasy – and just one here. It’s easy to see that Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant, both of which earned nominations in their respective genres, are frontrunners. A shocking snub from the ADG was Carol, which is likely to break through here, and should be joined by period nominee The Danish Girl. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. Period nominees Bridge of Spies and Trumbo could contend, as could contemporary nominees Joy, Sicario, and The Martian. I wouldn’t bet on fantasy nominee Star Wars: The Force Awakens since only the original three “Star Wars” films were honored here (the first won in 1977). The other non-ADG-recognized film, which was probably wasn’t eligible, that might grab the fifth spot: Brooklyn.

One possible crazy scenario: An ADG nominee I wouldn’t think to take seriously – horror film Crimson Peak makes the cut.

Forecasted winner: This feels like a solid place to honor Mad Max: Fury Road.

Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 14th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Ida, Mr. Turner, Unbroken

This year’s locks: The Revenant, Mad Max: Fury Road, Carol

Very likely: Bridge of Spies

Possible: Sicario, The Martian, The Hateful Eight, Room, Spotlight

Unlikely: The Danish Girl, Creed, The Walk, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

The rundown: This category usually matches up 4/5 with the American Society of Cinematographers list, though in some years, like 2002 and 2007, the list corresponds exactly. Of that list, there are three nominees that should be sure things: The Revenant, Mad Max: Fury Road, and Carol. Even if it doesn’t make the Best Picture list, which it probably will at this point, I’d count on Bridge of Spies making the cut here. The fifth nominee, Sicario, is a good bet, since it should place in the technical categories and is looking more and more likely in the bigger races too. Other possibilities include The Martian, The Hateful Eight, Room, and Spotlight, and The Danish Girl or Creed could show up too.

One possible crazy scenario: I feel like I’m putting this film in this spot in every category: The Walk gets rewarded for some truly visual storytelling.

Forecasted winner: I predict Emmanuel Lubezki to score his third consecutive trophy for The Revenant.

Final Golden Globe Winner Predictions

I’m always excited for the Golden Globes, the first major awards ceremony of the season, and Oscar nominations haven’t yet come out, so we still have the chance to see some big surprises that won’t actually affect the nominations since ballots are already past due.

The best part for me is that I think I've seen more than ever before at this point or even long after the ceremony. I managed to catch all but three nominated films in any category. I missed "The Peanuts Movie" while it was in theatres, but I'm not too broken up about that. I haven't heard anything about U.S. releases for Foreign Film nominees "The Brand New Testament" and "The Club," so I didn't have a chance to see any of those. I consider myself lucky and excited to have seen all the rest in every race, so hopefully these are the most informed predictions yet!

Last year, there were clear frontrunners - “Birdman” and “Boyhood” - and I unwisely and unsuccessfully bet against the former. This year, “Spotlight” seems like the frontrunner but I’m predicting a different film for Best Director, as are many others. What the Globes will do is solidify who the leaders are and whether it’s those who have appeared everywhere, like Mark Rylance or Helen Mirren, or if others shouldn’t be underestimated. Many of the probable winners feel like locks, but are they? I’m excited to see - I think this is a fun year and we could have some good winners. Click on category headings for analysis. Leave your thoughts in the comments. Let’s hope for a great show! Head over to TVwithAbe.com for predictions in all of the TV races, and enjoy the show!

Best Motion Picture - Drama
Spotlight

Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
The Martian

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Brie Larson (Room)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Matt Damon (The Martian)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)

Best Animated Feature Film
Inside Out

Best Foreign Language Film
Son of Saul

Best Director - Motion Picture
George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
Spotlight

Best Original Score - Motion Picture
The Danish Girl

Best Original Song - Motion Picture
“See You Again” (Furious 7)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The competition: The Big Short, Joy, The Martian, Spy, Trainwreck

For your information: “The Big Short” has four nominations, “The Martian” has two, and the other three are only nominated for Best Actress in addition to this prize. The only film nominated for Best Director is “The Martian.” With no musicals nominated this year, there aren’t too many helpful statistics to cover.

Who should win? I enjoyed “Joy” a lot, and I would definitely give this award to that film. I’m not sure “The Martian” is a comedy, but it would be a fine choice, as would “The Big Short.”

Who will win? It could be “The Big Short,” but I’m going with The Martian.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Drama

The competition: Carol, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight

For your information: All but “Room” are nominated for Best Director, and only “Room” and “Spotlight” and up for Best Screenplay. “Carol” has five nominations, “The Revenant” has four, “Room” and “Spotlight” each have three, and “Mad Max: Fury Road” has two. In the past ten years, only three of the winners have gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar.

Who should win? I’ve been championing “Room” and “Spotlight” as the two films everyone should see this year for awards purposes (and because they’re great). “Spotlight” is definitely my favorite of this race.

Who will win? It’s been underperforming all of awards season, but I think Spotlight has what it takes to win this award.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

The competition: Todd Haynes (Carol), George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road), Ridley Scott (The Martian), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant), Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)

For your information: Only two of these nominees have contended before for directing, and none have won. Though he won the Oscar last year, Inarritu was just a nominee at the Globes, and took home the the screenplay award for “Birdman.” He was previously nominated for directing “Babel” in 2006. Scott was previously nominated for helming “American Gangster” in 2007 and “Gladiator” in 2000. Haynes was nominated in the screenplay category for “Far From Heaven” in 2002. The only time a comedy won in the past twenty-five years was “Gosford Park” in 2001, and “The Martian” is considered a comedy here.

Who should win? I enjoyed Scott and McCarthy’s films most, and I think they deserve a lot of the credit. I wouldn’t be too upset about any of these films winning since the directors were instrumental in making what was strong about them strong.

Who will win? It could be Inarritu or McCarthy, but I think that Miller shouldn’t have too much trouble taking home this award.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition: Charles Randolph and Adam McKay (The Big Short), Quentin Tarantino (The Hateful Eight), Emma Donoghue (Room), Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer (Spotlight), Aaron Sorkin (Steve Jobs)

For your information: Tarantino has been nominated six times before, three times for directing and three times for writing. He won for penning the screenplays for “Pulp Fiction” and “Django Unchained.” This is his first time being nominated in this category without a corresponding directing nod. This is the sixth nomination in this category for Sorkin, who won in 2010 for “The Social Network.” McCarthy is also nominated for directing his film. “The Big Short,” “Room,” and “Spotlight” are all nominated for Best Picture prizes. Only “Spotlight” is nominated for directing.

Who should win? The dialogue is definitely clever in “The Big Short” and “The Hateful Eight,” while “Room” and “Spotlight” are two of the best dramatic films of the year. My choice, however, is the brilliant and very Sorkin-like “Steve Jobs,” which lives and thrives on its writing.

Who will win? Last year, I noted that no film in the past thirty years had won this award without a corresponding Best Picture bid, and so I’d say that discounts “The Hateful Eight” and “Steve Jobs,” which are the two competitors likeliest to take down Spotlight or “The Big Short.”

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Foreign Language Film

The competition: The Brand New Testament (Belgium/France/Luxembourg), The Club (Chile), The Fencer (Finland/Germany/Estonia), Mustang (France), Son of Saul (Hungary)

For your information: It’s hard to tabulate statistics by country since multiple countries are sometimes credited for a given film, including two nominees this year. By my calculations, France has been nominated a whopping 79 times and has been credited with twelve wins. Germany shared credit on one win out of a handful of nominations. Belgium won twice. Hungary and Chile have both been nominated once before, and Estonia was nominated last year for the first time. Finland was cited once also, over fifty years ago. Jaco Van Dormeal, who helmed “The Brand New Testament,” was nominated in 1996 for “The Eighth Day.” Four of these films made the shortlist for the Oscar race and may be nominated – “The Club” is the only one that didn’t.

Who should win? I haven’t seen “The Brand New Testament” or “The Club,” neither of which have U.S. release dates on the schedule. The other three are all good - I’m not sure I have a preference.

Who will win? This category didn’t have a clear frontrunner the past two years, but Son of Saul seems like it this year.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Animated Feature Film

The competition: Anomalisa, The Good Dinosaur, Inside Out, The Peanuts Movie, Shaun the Sheep Movie

For your information: This category has existed since 2006. Pixar has won almost every year but hasn’t been nominated for the past three years. This marks the first time that two Pixar films are nominated. 20th Century Fox Animation, which co-produced “The Peanuts Movie,” has contended twice previously, Aardman Animations, which produced “Shaun the Sheep Movie,” was nominated once before for “Arthur Christmas.” “Anomalisa” is the first R-rated movie to contend for this award. None of these films have any other nominations.

Who should win? I missed “The Peanuts Movie” but I’m not rushing to try to find it anytime soon. I enjoyed all of these and think they have merits, but “Inside Out” is clearly the best.

Who will win? Last year, “How to Train Your Dragon 2” eclipsed “The Lego Movie” and eventual Oscar winner “Big Hero 6.” This year, Inside Out is the clear frontrunner and should have no trouble winning.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Original Song

The competition: “Love Me Like You Do” by Max Martin, Savan Kotecha, Ali Payami, and Ilya Salmanzadeh (Fifty Shades of Grey), “See You Again” by Justin Franks, Andrew Cedar, Charlie Puth, and Wiz Khalifa (Furious 7), “One Kind of Love” by Brian Wilson and Scott Montgomery Bennett (Love and Mercy), “Writing’s on the Wall” by Sam Smith and James Napier (Spectre), and “Simple Song #3” by David Lang (Youth).

For your information: This is the first nomination for all contenders in this category. Though the past three years have been different, in the past ten years, six of the winners have gone on to be snubbed by Oscar. There isn’t much more to say technically about this category except that big names tend to win over the buzziest songs. This is the seventh nomination for a James Bond film. Only one has ever won, and that was “Skyfall” in 2012. Brian Wilson has never been nominated for a Golden Globe but has contended for nine Grammys and won two of them.

Who should win? I just listened to all these songs again. I like “See You Again” but I was also surprisingly fond of “Simple Song #3.” They’re definitely different types of music.

Who will win? I think I’ll still go with See You Again even though I think that “One Kind of Love” could win due to its Beach Boys roots and “Simple Song #3” could also triumph because it stands apart so much from the rest of the nominees.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Original Score

The competition: Carol (Carter Burwell), The Danish Girl (Alexandre Desplat), The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone), The Revenant (Ryuichi Sakamoto and Alva Noto), Steve Jobs (Daniel Pemberton)

For your information: This is the eighth nomination for Morricone, who won in 1986 for “The Mission” and in 1999 for “The Legend of 1900.” This is also the eighth nomination for Desplat, who won in 2006 for “The Painted Veil” and was nominated most recently last year. Burwell has been nominated once before. Sakamoto has been nominated twice before as part of composing teams, winning on both occasions, in 1987 for “The Last Emperor” and in 1990 for “The Sheltering Sky.” This is Pemberton’s first nomination.

Who should win? I remember the music from “The Danish Girl” and “The Hateful Eight” from when I saw the films. “The Revenant” and “Steve Jobs” are a bit too populated with ambient noise for my tastes. I would vote for “Carol” or “The Danish Girl.”

Who will win? It could be any of these. My pick is The Danish Girl over “The Hateful Eight.”

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

The competition: Jane Fonda’s Hollywood actress (Youth), Jennifer Jason Leigh’s uppity prisoner (The Hateful Eight), Helen Mirren’s gossip queen (Trumbo), Alicia Vikander’s cunning robot (Ex Machina), and Kate Winslet’s loyal collaborator (Steve Jobs).

For your information: This is Fonda’s fifteen nomination, and she has won seven times. This is Mirren’s fourteenth nomination, and she has won three times, including two trophies out of three nominations in 2006. This is the eleventh nomination for Winslet, who has won three times. In 2008, she won both Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. Leigh was nominated once before and Vikander is also nominated for “The Danish Girl” this year.

Who should win? Winslet really impressed me in her film, and I’d sooner vote for Leigh in “Anomalisa” and Vikander in “The Danish Girl” than the roles they’re nominated for, even though they were good.

Who will win? There’s no real frontrunner here, and so this will be helpful in determining who might be able to take home the Oscar, though Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander being recognized for what the Globes consider leading roles will change things. It could be any of them, but I’ll bet on Leigh.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

The competition: Paul Dano’s brilliant musician (Love and Mercy), Idris Elba’s fearless commander (Beasts of No Nation), Mark Rylance’s quiet spy (Bridge of Spies), Michael Shannon’s fearsome real estate developer (99 Homes), and Sylvester Stallone’s aging boxer (Creed).

For your information: Elba has been nominated four times in the past, winning once for “Luther.” Both he and Rylance, who is a first-time nominee this year, are also nominated for their TV miniseries work. Stallone was nominated in 1976 for acting in and writing “Rocky.” This is the first nomination for Dano and Shannon. Interestingly, none of these films are nominated for a Best Picture award.

Who should win? Shannon is far and away my choice, though I would not have classified him as supporting or ever expected him to get nominated.

Who will win? It’s not clear at this point, but Rylance seems to be the one who is being most widely praised, so I expect him to win unless Elba manages to or Stallone gets a nostalgia trophy.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The competition: Jennifer Lawrence’s struggling inventor (Joy), Melissa McCarthy’s awkward agent (Spy), Amy Schumer’s vulgar journalist (Trainwreck), Maggie Smith’s title character (The Lady in the Van), and Lily Tomlin’s temperamental matriarch (Grandma).

For your information: This is the twelfth career nomination for Smith, who won film trophies in 1978 and 1986 and a TV award in 2012 for “Downton Abbey.” Tomlin has been nominated five times previously and also contends this year for “Grace and Frankie.” This is Lawrence’s fourth nomination in five years. She has won twice - for “American Hustle” in 2013 and in this category in 2012 for “Silver Linings Playbook.” Both films were directed by David O. Russell, who also directed her in “Joy.” This is the first nomination for both McCarthy and Schumer, who, along with Lawrence, have their films nominated for Best Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical. Four actresses have won this award twice in a row, including Amy Adams the past two years.

Who should win? These are all fun choices, though McCarthy and Schumer’s performances aren’t quite at the same level. I think I would pick Lawrence over Tomlin and Smith.

Who will win? I would have said that Lawrence was far ahead just based on the nature of her performance, her having won twice, and the film, but the reception hasn’t been as positive as it should be, both for her chances and the fact that it’s great! I don’t know that any of the other actresses have enough momentum to win, so I’ll stick with her.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The competition: Christian Bale’s brilliant numbers guy (The Big Short), Steve Carell’s temperamental moneyman (The Big Short), Matt Damon’s stranded astronaut (The Martian), Al Pacino’s aging musician (Danny Collins), and Mark Ruffalo’s manic-depressive father (Infinitely Polar Bear).

For your information: This is the seventeenth career nomination for Pacino, and the last time he was nominated for film work – back in 1992 – he won, one of four lifetime trophies. Damon has been nominated five times for acting and won once for screenwriting. This is Carell’s eighth overall nomination and his second consecutive bid for film work. He won in 2005 for “The Office.” Bale has been nominated twice before, winning once for “The Fighter.” Ruffalo earned his two previous Globe nominations last year. “The Big Short” and “The Martian” are nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical. Interestingly, in this category, the last two times that two performers were nominated for the same film, one ended up taking home the award, which might help Bale or Carell.

Who should win? I liked Ruffalo a lot in his film, but I’d still go with Damon.

Who will win? The only serious Oscar contender in this category is also the one likeliest to win: Damon.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition: Cate Blanchett’s unhappy wife (Carol), Brie Larson’s loyal mother (Room), Rooney Mara’s impressionable salesgirl (Carol), Saoirse Ronan’s optimistic immigrant (Brooklyn), and Alicia Vikander’s supportive wife (The Danish Girl).

For your information: This is the ninth nomination for Blanchett, who can credit two of her three wins to this category for “Blue Jasmine” and “Elizabeth.” Mara and Ronan have each been nominated once before, and Vikander is also nominated in Best Supporting Actress this year, earning two nominations on her first try. This is the first nomination for Larson. All but Vikander’s film are nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama. The last time two actresses contended for the same film – 1991 – neither won.

Who should win? These are all great performances, but I’d vote for Larson or Vikander above the rest.

Who will win? There’s no clear frontrunner just yet, and unless one of the “Carol” women pull ahead, I think Larson will be the winner.