Movie with Abe: Vice

Christian Bale as Dick Cheney in Adam McKay’s VICE, an Annapurna Pictures release.
Credit : Greig Fraser / Annapurna Pictures 2018 © Annapurna Pictures, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Vice
Directed by Adam McKay
Released December 25, 2018

Politics are ripe for mockery, in part because the decisions that have to be made at such a high level are both impactful and carefully scrutinized by an increasingly aware public. Variety shows like “Saturday Night Live” have skewered elected officials in power for decades, sometimes earning an amused approval from those portrayed in a less than favorable fashion. Creating an entire film based on a comedic depiction of real-life figures well-known from recent American history is a more unique enterprise, one that carries more gravity than a simple sketch parodying one action or event.

Dick Cheney (Christian Bale) begins his political career as an intern for the cutthroat Donald Rumsfeld (Steve Carell) after early years spent messing around in college and straightened out only by his strong-willed wife, Lynne (Amy Adams). When Democrats take back the White House in 1977, Cheney gives Congress a try before retreating back to the private sector. His return to politics in 2000 brings with it the opportunity to yield untold power as he turns the traditional figurehead position of vice-president serving under George W. Bush (Sam Rockwell) into something it’s never before been and will likely never be again.

Director Adam McKay, who used to make full-on comedies that didn’t have nearly this level of sophistication, hit it big with Oscar three years ago with “The Big Short,” a clever take on the financial crisis laced with biting humor. Now, he’s made something that at times resembles his prior work, featuring villains that might as well be twirling their mustaches and regularly admit to treating their country and international rivals as chess pieces in a game that they’re all too content playing. This film begins with the note that it is a true story, though it can only be as true as possible given Cheney’s tendency for being incredibly secretive. The way in which so much of the events depicted are embellished for cinematic effect makes it difficult to believe that some, if not most, of it actually happened. Bush asking Cheney to be his vice-president and signing away his political legacy while licking barbecue sauce off his fingers is one such instance among many, undeniably entertaining but impossible to take seriously.

The editing in this film is particularly schizophrenic, jumping all throughout Cheney’s career almost at random, interspersing graphic and sometimes disturbing visual interpretations of what its characters are doing and what motivates them. At the same time, it seems to gloss over multi-year periods during that might fill in equally fascinating facets of Cheney’s life and career. Bale is doing intense mimicry, capturing Cheney’s demeanor and essence, and it’s easy to forget that he’s buried under the character. Adams stands out as the spouse equally vested in his success. Those interested in this subject matter should check out the documentary “The World According to Dick Cheney,” which is just as furiously engaging but far less frustrating in its depiction, which gives its central figure a change to chime in that adds a needed grounding.

C+

Movie with Abe: A Quiet Place

A Quiet Place
Directed by John Krasinski
Released April 6, 2018

Sound is integral to the human experience. Its most popular use is in conversation, and many other actions and movements produce sounxpress d. It is so commonplace that most are unaware of its presence and would be hard-pressed to limit it. While parents may try hard not to wake a baby that has fallen asleep or someone might whisper to prevent disturbing others around them, the notion of operating in total silence is almost unfathomable. Yet when faced with the need to survive, there are those who will adapt and cut out one facet of their lives to ensure their continued existence.

Lee (John Krasinski) and Evelyn (Emily Blunt) have lived through an apocalyptic event that has given rise to monsters who charge and kill whenever they hear anything. After the tragic death of their youngest son, Lee and Evelyn try desperately to protect their daughter Regan (Millicent Simmonds), who is deaf, and their son Marcus (Noah Jupe). Evelyn’s pregnancy creates a new danger, and Lee does everything he can to find ways for his family to live as cautiously – and silently – as possible and to prepare for the worst should the inevitable accidental noise be heard by the monsters lurking all too near.

This is not a conventional horror film, though admittedly this reviewer tries to steer clear of anything that fits that genre and is not as well-versed as others in its usual content. Instead of emphasizing sudden images designed to make audiences jump, this film delves into the constant terror created by the notion that one sound could prove fatal. The effect that it has on all four members of this family is made explicitly clear by the way in which they communicate using sign language and express tremendous relief whenever they experience close calls.

This film has earned tremendous praise from critics and audiences alike. Krasinski serves as director and star, marking his breakthrough as a filmmaker. His real-life wife Blunt has earned accolades for her performance, imbuing her character with extraordinary willpower and strength. Talented child actors Simmonds and Jupe, who starred in “Wonderstruck” and “Wonder,” respectively, are well-utilized, and promising careers certainly lie ahead for them. Watching the film is a breathless, tense exercise, one that offers considerable stress and moderate satisfaction. As a post-apocalyptic survival thriller, however, this film is not nearly as inventive or innovative as the buzz surrounding it would suggest.

B

Saturday Night Movie Recommendations with Abe

Welcome back to a weekly feature here at Movies With Abe. I'm going to be providing a handy guide to a few choice movies currently playing in theatres as well as several films newly released on DVD and Netflix. I invite you to add in your thoughts on any films I haven’t seen in the comments below.

Now Playing in Theatres

It’s a big week for major releases of Oscar contenders, and they’re all pretty great! One of them is profiled below because of its Netflix platform launch but is also playing in select theaters. Though that film is very likely to win Best Foreign Film, I might actually pick another likely nominee, Capernaum, an affecting Lebanese film about a young boy who believes his parents should never have had him. If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins’ follow-up to “Moonlight,” is very good and deserves to be seen by a very wide audience. I loved Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, a truly creative animated film that works on so many levels. And finally, there’s The Mule, Clint Eastwood’s late-breaking film in which he plays a 90-year-old drug smuggler, which is pretty standard fare for him these days that works pretty well. Don’t miss releases from past weeks, including The Favourite, Mirai, and Widows.

New to DVD

One of my favorite films from Sundance, Colette, didn’t receive nearly the praise it should have for a tremendous performance from Keira Knightley and for its fantastic production values. I wasn’t nearly as fond of Lizzie, a historical murder mystery starring Chloe Sevigny and Kristen Stewart that just didn’t really work. Previous picks, almost all from Sundance, include: Juliet, Naked, Blindspotting, The New Romantic, Never Goin’ Back and The Miseducation of Cameron Post.

Now on Netflix Instant Streaming

I’ve contended since I saw it that Roma was going to win Best Picture. The black-and-white Mexican film from director Alfonso Cuaro really is pretty incredible, and though seeing it on the big screen is worthwhile, I’d still recommend it on the streaming service for those not eager to go to a theater. Recent great additions covered in past weeks include: Breath and The Cakemaker.

Movie with Abe: The Mule

The Mule
Directed by Clint Eastwood
Released December 14, 2018

As people get older, they usually become less able to do the things that might have seemed considerably easier and effortless at a younger age. Retirement is an appealing option for those who feel that they have worked their entire lives and want to spend what remains of their time relaxing and enjoying whatever they haven’t been able to previously. Some don’t know what to do with themselves when their daily routine is taken away, and those may well be the most capable of surprising everyone around them with their unlikely resolve and resilience.

In 2005, Earl Stone (Clint Eastwood) is a horticulturist thriving in his industry and beloved by everyone at conventions, though his affinity for his craft leads to him prioritizing it over his family, including missing his daughter’s wedding. Twelve years later, Earl is facing foreclosure and not being able to fund the wedding of the one relative who still talks to him, his granddaughter Ginny (Taissa Farmiga). An unexpected offer to drive leads Earl into an extremely profitable profession, transporting large shipments of cartel drugs across the country. As Earl becomes the top runner, he is unaware that a DEA team led by Special Agent Colin Bates (Bradley Cooper) is closing in on him.

Eastwood is a veteran actor and director who, at eighty-eight, continues to make impressive films and deliver worthwhile performances. Ten years ago, he anchored “Gran Torino” as a racist remnant of changing neighborhood, and here he portrays someone who has clearly alienated his family but remains otherwise likeable to those within his industry and with whom he interacts on a regular basis. Elements of his personality reveal his age and his having grown up in a different time, and his inability to text using a burner phone is a source of humor. But there is an unexpected sweetness and approachability to Earl that isn’t usually found in the characters he portrays.

The timing of this film’s release seems to have negated any awards chances for Eastwood, but his performance is typically great, and fresh in a way that is rare for an actor of his age. Cooper, who has his own directorial debut this year, is a solid familiar partner for Eastwood as the man charged with hunting him down. The narrative is easy to follow and presented in a straightforward format, with a perhaps unnecessary emphasis on the cartel serving to weaken an otherwise strong and compelling film. Though the true story on which it’s based predictably differs in many ways, this is a decent adaptation that knows exactly what it wants to be.

B

Movie with Abe: Capernaum

Capernaum
Directed by Nadine Labaki
Released December 14, 2018

Families come in all shapes and sizes. Siblings with a large gap in age between them often have a more complicated and distant relationship than those who are around the same age. The way that they are treated by parents can also change depending on the size of the family, with more time possible to be devoted to one or two children as compared with a larger group, where older siblings often take care of the younger ones, stepping in as surrogates while the adults work to make enough money to be able to support their offspring.

Zain (Zain Al Rafeea) is one of a number of children growing up in Lebanon in an extremely small home. He has a particularly close relationship with his sister Sahar (Cedra Izzam), who he looks out for and cherishes. When his parents try to marry her off to a much older man so that she might have a shot at a better life, Zain runs away from home. When he meets Rahil (Yordanos Shiferaw), an illegal immigrant, he begins occupying his time by taking care of a new younger sibling: the baby son that she cannot acknowledge she has for fear of his being taken from her. Living away from actual adult supervision gives Zain a new experience, one that leads him to conclude that his parents were never fit to have raised him.

This film, described as a “politically-charged fable,” is described in most summaries as being about a child who sues his parents for the crime of his being born. That is certainly a component of it but hardly its definitive trait, since it serves as a far deeper and more insightful exploration of what it means to have a family, as Zain and his many siblings share an extraordinarily close space each day and night. They do not attend school and, before being married off, Sahar works as an eleven-year-old each day at the small corner store run by the much older man who clearly harbors affection for her. Zain can see that this is wrong, and audiences will surely agree.

Lebanon was Oscar-nominated last year for its submitted foreign film, “The Insult,” which zeroed in on a conflict between two men from different cultures that exemplified a far larger national rift. Its submission this year is equaling compelling, portraying poverty and social issues in its native country in an extraordinary fashion. Its cast of non-professional actors is excellent, with Al Rafeea standing out for his passionate and believable performance as a child forced to act like an adult based on the role models he sees around him. This is not the kind of film that would be made in America, and it is an excellent import that should not be missed.

B+

Movie with Abe: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Directed by Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, and Rodney Rothman
Released December 14, 2018

Superhero movies are everywhere right now. If you watch a movie about one comic book legend, it’s more than likely that, after a couple of sequels, the franchise will be rebooted before long and told from a perspective that’s meant to be innovative but probably looks a whole lot like everything that came before it. It’s refreshing, therefore, to see something that feels truly new, taking into account all that’s already canon and expanding on it in a creative way that totally merits the idea of revisiting preexisting material and turning it into something that feels fresh and worthwhile.

Peter Parker (Chris Pine) is Spider-Man, though his stint doesn’t last long as he is killed by Kingpin (Liev Schreiber) after the villain opens a portal to other dimensions. Fortunately, teenager Miles Morales (Shameik Moore) is bitten by a radioactive spider and learns from Peter what he must do in order to set the universe straight. With no training and little idea of how to use his powers, Miles is unexpectedly introduced to a number of alternate versions of Spider-Man transported from the other dimensions, including an older, glummer Peter B. Parker (Jake Johnson), Gwen Stacy (Hailee Steinfeld), Spider-Man Noir (Nicolas Cage), Peni Parker (Kimiko Glenn), and Spider-Ham (John Mulaney), who all team up to take down Kingpin and save the multiverse from certain implosion.

This film starts off on a productive note, skipping past the recreation of an origin story by having Peter just tell it as it is, bringing anyone who doesn’t know about Spider-Man up to speed, assuming that he doesn’t need to fill in unnecessary details. That device is humorously recreated throughout the film as each new version of Spider-Man first appears, explaining their slightly varied circumstances and what defines their world. It’s a great way of diving right into the action, allowing this film to bring them together without the need for starting from scratch, intent on focusing all on plot and intrigue, with many laughs brought in as a result of the differences between these heroes and the way that they operate.

Animation is undoubtedly the best framework within which to lens this story, since it features so many incredible eye-popping visuals and brings comic books to life with its amalgam of straightforward stories and panels dictating the characters’ words and actions. Standard visual effects in a live-action film wouldn’t have been able to convey nearly the same sense of adventure and wonder that comes from the spectacular animation. The voice cast, which also includes Brian Tyree Henry, Mahershala Ali, Kathryn Hahn, and Lily Tomlin, is uniformly excellent, with Johnson standing out in particular for his very funny take on a worn-out superhero. This animated film isn’t just for kids at all, bringing in some more complicated themes and ideas for an epic adventure that’s fantastically paced and fully captivating. Films with characters like Spider-Man often earn sequels, but this one is magnificent all on its own. More of the same would surely be worthwhile, but this film packs more than enough awesomeness into just one entry.

B+

SAG Nominees: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 1/5, picking only “Crazy Rich Asians”
Who’s missing? The Favourite, Vice, Widows, If Beale Street Could Talk

I didn’t realize quite how badly I had done here. That said, there are some definite surprises. I guess I’ve been spoiled by the past few years where we got new contenders who hadn’t been honored in the top races at the Golden Globes, like “The Big Sick,” “Mudbound,” “Captain Fantastic,” “Hidden Figures,” “Beasts of No Nation,” “Straight Outta Compton,” and “Trumbo.” This year, all five were recognized there, though they’re not the ones you might think. “The Favourite” was highly expected to make the cut, and its omission is deeply troubling, and disappointing because it’s not just the three terrific women, and the same argument could be made for A Star is Born, which did manage to make the cut. The snub for “Vice” is problematic for that film though not damning, whereas this should be the end of the line, regrettably, for “Widows.” The absence of “If Beale Street Could Talk” is very disconcerting, signaling that support for the great film might not be as strong as it should be, though both “The Shape of Water” and “Call Me By Your Name” missed out here last year. Crazy Rich Asians getting in isn’t a big deal since it makes sense as a fun choice, and that doesn’t necessarily bolster its chances. Interestingly, it’s one of two films nominated without an individual cast representative, along with Black Panther, another good choice with lots of great players. I’m fine with the inclusion of BlacKkKlansman even if it wasn’t my favorite of the year. Rounding out the list is a less expected choice, Bohemian Rhapsody, that I’m behind since I liked it a lot more than most critics. It’s now a much stronger contender for the Best Picture Oscar given its placement here and at the Globes. The question is, like last year, will not all these films make the cut with the Oscars? On a less optimistic note, it’s worth reading Nathaniel’s deep dive into which ensemble players weren’t actually nominated over at The Film Experience.

Who will win? These are some competitive nominees – my guess is that Black Panther wins over the likelier frontrunner, “A Star is Born.”

SAG Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 3/5, missing Blunt and Robbie
Who’s missing? Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Claire Foy (First Man), Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)

Well, this is troubling. No one thought that there was any reason to fear King being omitted, especially after she joined Amy Adams (Vice) as a double nominee at the Golden Globes. But she’s nowhere to be found after winning a handful of critics’ prizes already, and her film didn’t make the cut in ensemble as I had hoped it would. Also forgotten is Foy, who I would have thought would have been nominated after back-to-back wins the past two years for her TV work. Now, I haven’t seen Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place) in either of her nominated films, so I’m going to work up the courage to sit down and watch it within the next week so that I can comment on the validity of her placement here. Margot Robbie (Mary, Queen of Scots), on the other hand, didn’t impress me nearly as much as any of the other performers in this category. Their ensemble got snubbed, but at least Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) and Emma Stone (The Favourite), the third double nominee in this category, got in.

Who will win? Without King, who is the frontrunner? My movie is actually on Weisz.

SAG Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 5/5
Who’s missing? Sam Rockwell (Vice), Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)

This category was the easiest one to predict, confirming what everyone expected about it. After his Golden Globe snub, Sam Elliott (A Star is Born) bumped Rockwell, whose film also missed out on an expected ensemble bid. The other four nominees were nominated at the Globes as well. Along with Elliott, Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) is also nominated as part of his film’s ensemble. Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) is here on his own, while Mahershala Ali (Green Book) and Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) have one costar apiece joining them. This is very likely to be the Oscar list – another contender would have needed to show up somewhere by this point. Jordan, who earned a Critics’ Choice bid, is the only one with a real shot.

Who will win? We’ll see if there’s a frontrunner by then. My guess is it will be Ali.

SAG Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5, missing Blunt
Who’s missing? Viola Davis (Widows), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Rosamund Pike (A Private War), Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)

Well, that’s it for Davis and her film. It’s missed too many places, and unlike others that have triumphed at the last minute, this one has been out for weeks. Instead, late-breaking buzz for Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns) has resulted in her being a double nominee. I’m seeing the film on opening night one week from tonight and look forward to sharing thoughts. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) seems to be safe, as does Glenn Close (The Wife), and Olivia Colman (The Favourite) made the cut along with her two supporting costars despite an unfortunate snub for the ensemble. Rounding out the list is Lady Gaga (A Star is Born), representing one of four mentions for her film, keeping her as the frontrunner here, in my opinion. Barring a big surprise, this will be the Oscar list.

Who will win? I’m going with Gaga.

SAG Nominees: Best Actor in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5, missing Washington
Who’s missing? Ethan Hawke (First Reformed), Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns)

This category waited alphabetically for its final surprise, omitting, as I had predicted, critics’ favorite Hawke. He’s probably still in for the Oscar at the expense of someone no one thinks will be snubbed, like James Franco from last year. I wouldn’t count out unexpected inclusion John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman), whose film seems to be going the distance and whose trajectory might mirror that of his father Denzel’s two years ago, albeit with support for his movie. He’s nominated along with the ensemble of his film, joining Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) and, less expectedly, Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) in that distinction. The other two nominees didn’t achieve that distinction, despite many predicting it: Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) and Christian Bale (Vice), joined by one supporting player each. This list is mostly standard, with Washington gaining plenty of momentum on the way to the Oscars.

Who will win? Based on the ensemble nomination, I think Malek can do it over Bale.

Movie with Abe: Burning

Burning
Directed by Chang-dong Lee
Released November 9, 2018

Romance is not a standard thing. The way that it begins, evolves, and looks throughout the process is different based on the people involved. The notion of a “honeymoon period” describes early courtship and bliss that, later on in a relationship, might fade considerably when one or both people involved no longer believe they need to put forth the same effort. The trajectory is hardly set for any kind of romance, and there are unexpected intrusions and developments that might affect its course greatly, introducing new elements and thoughts that complicate what should be simple.

Jong-su (Ah-in Yoo), recently moved into the house vacated by his imprisoned father and long-absent mother, runs into his old classmate Hae-mi (Jong-seo Jun), who tells him that she is taking a trip to Africa and needs him to watch her cat while she is gone. When she returns and asks him to pick her up from the airport, he readily agrees, not aware that he is also picking up a wealthy man named Ben (Steven Yeun) who she has just met. Each time he tries to see Hae-mi, Ben is there, eliciting feelings both of jealousy and of fascination with this mystery man, who tells Jong-su that he secretly enjoys burning down abandoned greenhouses.

Jong-su is a writer and spends most of his time alone, tending to his family’s farm and sitting in a near-empty courtroom where his father faces his latest arraignment. The temper that has gotten his father into so much trouble is present in no form in his son, and Jong-su’s passiveness slowly begins to be replaced by a new kind of demeanor as Ben appears more and more when he meets the woman he loves, who seems entirely unaware that bringing two men on the same date is at best confusing and at worst manipulative and cruel. Ben’s relaxed attitude and luxurious possessions make him even more of an enigma, so effortlessly charming in a way that Jong-su could never be.

Yoo is an established actor in South Korea who delivers an appropriately subdued lead performance here, opposite an impressive and energizing debut from Jun. Korean-American actor Yeun, known for his work on “The Walking Dead,” has been winning deserved accolades for his disarming portrayal of Ben, who provides much of the film’s intrigue through the uncertain motivations of his suddenly omnipresent character. South Korea’s official Oscar submission for Best Foreign Film is a strong film that remains immersive and interesting for the whole of its two hour and twenty-eight-minute runtime, intent on telling a story committed to following its characters wherever their unexpected interactions and actions might take them.

B+

Movie with Abe: If Beale Street Could Talk

If Beale Street Could Talk
Directed by Barry Jenkins
Released December 14, 2018

Being black in America can define a person’s daily experiences in a way that this reviewer could never hope to understand. The lack of diversity within Hollywood and the underrepresentation of black people in front of and behind the camera has been spotlighted lately, in a hopeful start towards progress. Films that tell uniquely black stories don’t always achieve prominence, but two years ago, Barry Jenkins made “Moonlight,” which ultimately won the Oscar for Best Picture. Jenkins’ follow-up is an equally passionate and moving film, one with a very different kind of story to tell.

Tish (Kiki Layne) and Alonzo Hunt (Stephan James), better known as Fonny, have known each other all their lives. Their friendship eventually turns into a romance, one that is interrupted just after they find an apartment together when Fonny is arrested for a rape that he did not commit. When Tish learns that she is pregnant, her parents, Sharon (Regina King) and Joseph (Colman Domingo), embrace the new life that will soon enter the world, doing everything they can to help prove Fonny’s innocence so that their children can be reunited to start a family of their own.

There is a marvelous intimacy that exists in this film. Every time Tish and Fonny look at each other, the multitude of experiences they have shared over their lives come flooding back and are conveyed through the passion they feel. The families that raised them also have an incredible chance to shine in an early scene that finds them discussing the news that will bring them together in more than friendship. These people all feel so real even though their interactions have a magical, dreamlike quality to them, representative of others like them but genuine and individual at the same time.

This film introduces itself with a quote from James Baldwin, who wrote the book of the same name on which this film is based, explaining the significance of its title. This works as a love story and as an embodiment of a culture that must so often fight for its very survival. Its vibrant costumes by Caroline Eselin, moving cinematography by James Laxton, and heartfelt musical score by Nicholas Britell add to a terrific ensemble led by Layne and James with considerable support from King, Domingo, and its other with players in small roles. This is an affecting and powerful film, one that truly invites audiences into its perspective of the world.

B+

Monday Oscar Odds

With the Golden Globes announcing their nominations this past Thursday and the Critics Choice list coming out this morning, we’re starting to get a real picture of the Oscar race. I’ve seen so much more than I ever have at this point in the season, and I’m working up the courage to see the two horror films that are performing better than expected (at least by me) and making plans to see the few remaining films either in theaters or on DVD. SAG nominations are announced Wednesday, and then we get tons of shortlists for technical categories next Monday, before many more precursors in the new year. Here’s a look at what’s happened and what it might mean. I’m offering visual effects predictions from a twenty-wide shortlist before the narrowed ten-wide one is publicized next week.

I looked back over Critics Choice nominees from previous years to see whether they included new contenders not recognized at the Golden Globes and how much they diverged from the eventual Oscar list. Only “Phantom Thread” really burst forth at the Oscars without much notice ahead of time last year. Especially with last year when, statistically, no film could win Best Picture because of historical necessities that had not been met, it’s most important to remember that it doesn’t actually matter what happened previously. What does seem clear, sad as it is to me, is that “Widows” is not going to be a major player. It missed out entirely at the Globes, and the Critics Choice list only features it in ensemble (a decent get), editing, and action movie, with Viola Davis missing out in a seven-wide field. “First Man” seemed like it was fading with only two Globe bids but then rallied with ten this morning, including picture, director, actor, and screenplay, plus a healthy dominance of the technical races. “First Reformed,” which to date has racked up eight critics’ prizes for star Ethan Hawke, doesn’t appear to be getting into the top race, but Hawke made up for his Globe miss with a mention today, and the film also showed up in the screenplay race. While critics love it, it may have to settle for those two Oscar nominations.

Though it’s ineligible for Best Motion Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes because it’s an international foreign language film, “Roma” still picked up director and screenplay bids, and it took home Best Picture prizes from critics’ groups in Philadelphia, Chicago, Toronto, Los Angeles, and New York (online) yesterday, making it, in my mind, the firm frontrunner for Best Picture even if it has the Netflix affiliation and its non-English nature going against it. “Vice” is also showing up strongly, netting the most Globe bids and a healthy Critics Choice take too. The review embargo ends this week, so I’m curious to see whether its prospects will change once thoughts on the film are public. Adam McKay is picking up nominations as its director while Barry Jenkins keeps missing out for “If Beale Street Could Talk,” which is a shame. I’m personally waiting to see “Mary Poppins Returns,” which is doing very well across the board. New predictions below – comment with your thoughts!

Best Picture
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
The Favourite
Eighth Grade
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

Best Director
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Adam McKay (Vice)

Best Actor
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

Best Actress
Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (Vice)
Claire Foy (First Man)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Best Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Vice

Best Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born

Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Documentary
Of Fathers and Sons
On Her Shoulders
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Best Foreign Film
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

SAG Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Last year’s nominees: The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, Mudbound, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

There are many contenders in this category, and the question is whether films that haven’t done well elsewhere can show up here. Crazy Rich Asians is a good possibility since it’s a fun ensemble piece, and Widows might also see an uptick in buzz with a mention here. Of the Best Picture frontrunners, If Beale Street Could Talk, The Favourite, and Vice seem likeliest, though Green Book, BlacKkKlansman or Black Panther could also show up. I’m not feeling A Star is Born being recognized here, but maybe that’s foolish on my part. Might Mary Poppins Returns make the cut too?

Current predictions:
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Vice
Widows

SAG Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Last year’s nominees: Mary J. Blige (Mudbound), Hong Chau (Downsizing), Holly Hunter (The Big Sick), Allison Janney (I, Tonya), Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

This year’s Golden Globe lineup seems likely to repeat all the way through to Oscar. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) is a lock, and both Emma Stone (The Favourite) and Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) are looking good too. Claire Foy (First Man) has little support for her film, while Amy Adams (Vice) has plenty, and it’s just a question of if any of them will be unseated by the likes of Elizabeth Debicki (Widows), Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased), Margot Robbie (Mary, Queen of Scots), or someone else.

Current predictions:
Amy Adams (Vice)
Claire Foy (First Man)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

SAG Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Last year’s nominees: Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes), Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

It’s very possible that all five Golden Globe nominees will repeat here, but I’m not holding my breath on last year’s winner Sam Rockwell (Vice), who might be replaced by Sam Elliott (A Star is Born). Expect that Mahershala Ali (Green Book) and Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) will be here, and Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) and Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) are both likely. This could be the place that a new contender emerges, and I think that it would mostly likely be Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns), if he’s placed in this category.

Current predictions:
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

SAG Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

Last year’s nominees: Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul), Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)

The three frontrunners here are Lady Gaga (A Star is Born), Glenn Close (The Wife), and Olivia Colman (The Favourite). I think that Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) is safe after scoring a Golden Globe nomination, and it’s just a question of who might join her. Drama nominees Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) and Rosamund Pike (A Private War) are possible, and the only real threat from the comedy categories is Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns). Other possibilities include Viola Davis (Widows), Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Toni Collette (Hereditary), Kathryn Hahn (Private Life), and Saoirse Ronan (Mary, Queen of Scots). I’m going with Davis but I think it might also be Blunt or someone much more surprising.

Current predictions:
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Viola Davis (Widows)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

SAG Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

Last year’s nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name), James Franco (The Disaster Artist), Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

Let’s start with the sure things, of which there are three: Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), and Christian Bale (Vice), whose film seemed like it was peaking too late until it ended up being the top nominations getter at the Golden Globes. Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) should be safe, and it’s anybody’s guess for the last slot. Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), and John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman) were all recognized in drama at the Golden Globes, while Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun) seems like a stronger threat than either John C. Reilly (Stan and Ollie) or Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns), who might also contend in supporting instead. Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) and Ryan Gosling (First Man) both missed out at the Globes but may well be able to score here, though I’m going to go out on a limb and predict Redford for a surprise mention.

Current predictions:
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun)

Saturday Night Movie Recommendations with Abe

Welcome back to a weekly feature here at Movies With Abe. I'm going to be providing a handy guide to a few choice movies currently playing in theatres as well as several films newly released on DVD and Netflix. I invite you to add in your thoughts on any films I haven’t seen in the comments below.

Now Playing in Theatres

Among the high-profile releases this week is Mary, Queen of Scots, featuring last year’s Oscar nominees Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie as competing monarchs in a decent drama that’s nicely decorated. Ben is Back wasn’t the project that earned Golden Globe nominations for either Julia Roberts or Lucas Hedges, but both are good in this mediocre mother-son movie about addiction. Tyrel played at Sundance as a far more realistic and straightforward version of “Get Out” with a great central performance by Jason Mitchell. Karen Gillan made her directorial debut with The Party’s Just Beginning, and the poster featuring her character stuffing her face with French fries is a good indication of its intriguing nature as a first film. Another Tribeca selection, Back Roads also serves as the directorial debut of its star, Alex Pettyfer, though that product is far more unnerving and haunting, hardly suitable for all audiences. I’d also advise that those who don’t want to see mass shootings featured on screen steer clear of Vox Lux, which has been buzzed about because of a different kind of Natalie Portman performance, but it’s really a mess with many problems.

New to DVD

I didn’t actually see it, but my wife was able to catch the Slamdance Film Festival Opening Night selection, Pick of the Litter, last January and highly recommends this guide dog documentary to all interested parties. Another pick from Park City, which took home the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance, The Miseducation of Cameron Post, is a worthwhile exploration of gay conversion therapy from writer-director Desiree Akhavan. Rounding out this week’s releases is Operation Finale, the suspenseful dramatization of the capture of Nazi war criminal Adolf Eichmann, played by Ben Kingsley.

Now on Netflix Instant Streaming

I can’t speak highly enough about Breath, directed by and starring Simon Baker, featuring incredible water cinematography in its portrayal of two young surfers in Australia. Israel’s Oscar submission for Best Foreign Film this year is The Cakemaker, a sweet and unexpected love story. Yorgos Lanthimos is getting accolades right now for “The Favourite,” and anyone encountering him for the first time should check out his first English-language film, the cleverly twisted The Lobster. It was a Best Picture nominee nine years ago, and District 9, with its allegorical representation of apartheid through aliens and humans, remains a remarkable and innovative science fiction film.