This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 10th. As a result, most of the corresponding guilds won’t have announced their picks by then, so I’m making predictions in advance without being able to take those into consideration. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.
Last year’s nominees: A Cat in Paris, Chico and Rita, Kung Fu Panda 2, Puss in Boots, Rango
This year’s locks: Frankenweenie, Brave
Very likely: Wreck-It Ralph
Possible: Rise of the Guardians, The Rabbi’s Cat, Hotel Transylvania, ParaNorman, The Painting, From Up on Poppy Hill
Unlikely: The Lorax, Ice Age: Continental Drift, The Pirates! Band of Misfits
The rundown: This race is down to twenty-one contenders. I’ve seen five of them at this point, including the top two most likely inclusions, Frankenweenie and Brave. I think that both Wreck-It Ralph and Rise of the Guardians should have enough momentum to make it too, but the fifth Golden Globe nominee, Hotel Transylvania, probably won’t. That leaves the door open for a conventional choice like ParaNorman or The Lorax, but I think that, like last year, some love will go to foreign fare, like The Rabbi’s Cat or The Painting from France or From Up on Poppy Hill from Japan.
One possible crazy scenario: People really don’t like Pixar anymore and “Brave” gets snubbed.
Forecasted winner: “Frankenweenie”