The competition: Amour (Austria), A Royal Affair (Denmark), The Intouchables (France), Rust and Bone (France), Kon-Tiki (Norway)
For your information: It’s hard to tabulate statistics by country since multiple countries are sometimes credited for a given film. Relevant to recent history, France has won eight times, Denmark twice, and Austria once. This is the first nomination for Norway. Having multiple films from one country nominated doesn’t usually diminish the chances of that country winning. Michael Haneke, director of “Amour,” and Jacques Audiard, director of “Rust and Bone,” are the only returning nominees. In 2009, they were up against each other, and Haneke won, for “The White Ribbon.” The only film in this category nominated in any other race is “Rust and Bone,” which is up for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama.
Who should win? I’ve only seen “Amour,” but it’s a strong choice.
Who will win? Either Amour or “The Intouchables.” Given that Haneke won recently, I’d give the former the edge.