SAG Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

The competition: Jessica Chastain’s determined CIA agent (Zero Dark Thirty), Marion Cotillard’s depressed amputee (Rust and Bone), Jennifer Lawrence’s eccentric dancer (Silver Linings Playbook), Helen Mirren’s long-suffering wife (Hitchcock), and Naomi Watts’ traumatized natural disaster survivor (The Impossible).

For your information: Mirren has won three individual SAG Awards, two for film and one for TV. The other four women have all been nominated exactly once before. Only Lawrence is also nominated this year as part of her film’s ensemble cast. Three times in the last five years, the winner of this race did not go on to win the Oscar for Best Actress.

Who should win: Chastain, Lawrence, or Cotillard

Who will win: This is an extremely tight race between Chastain and Lawrence, who both won Golden Globes and now face off against each other here. I’ll give the edge to Lawrence since her film fared better with this guild, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Chastain.